Sunday 1/1/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Odds and Expert Predictions
by Alan Matthews

Welcome to my final regular-season NFL preview for the 2016 season, although I'll certainly be here right through the Super Bowl as will other Doc's writers.

The NFL doesn't schedule a Sunday night game originally for Week 17 but leaves open a slot for NBC to flex into prime time. Needless to say, the goal is to have the most playoff relevant matchup for the biggest potential audience. And there's clearly no more important Week 17 game than Packers at Lions (both 9-6). By the time this game kicks off, the teams will know if the loser will miss the playoffs. That happens if Washington beats the visiting New York Giants in a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. Then the Redskins will take the NFC's final wild-card spot. And I fully expect Washington to win because the Giants are locked into the No. 5 spot in the conference and thus have nothing to play for. New York coach Ben McAdoo claims his starters will play, but he didn't say how long. I'd be stunned if they play more than a half. If Washington does lose, the Green Bay-Detroit loser gets a wild-card spot.

The Packers-Lions winner takes the NFC North title and gets at least one home playoff game. The Lions last won a division title in 1993 when it was the five-team NFC Central. Thus that's also the last year the franchise hosted a playoff game. Detroit could get all the way up to the No. 2 seed if Atlanta loses at home to New Orleans (doubtful) and Seattle loses in San Francisco (not happening). But in reality, the winner Sunday night is probably the No. 4 seed and will host the Giants next weekend.

One more thing: if the Packers and Lions tie, they will both get in with Green Bay as division champion. That's even if the Redskins win. There hasn't been a tie in a regular-season finale since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978. But it did happen in the finale of a 14-game schedule and both involved the Packers: 1965 vs. 49ers and the year before vs. the Rams.

Packers at Lions Betting Story Lines

No disrespect to the Lions, but I can promise you that every other NFC playoff coach is rooting for a Redskins win and then a Detroit victory to keep the red-hot Packers out of the playoffs. We all know Aaron Rodgers can win in any stadium. It was Rodgers who told Packer Nation that he believed his team could run the table when it was sitting at 4-6 and on a four-game losing streak. Only three teams in the past 38 years had a losing record through 10 games but then won six consecutive to make the playoffs.

Rodgers is looking wise with his team on a five-game winning streak and Rodgers has thrust himself right into the MVP race. Currently at Bovada, he is +350 with Tom Brady. The favorites, a bit surprising to me, are Ezekiel Elliott (+225) and Matt Ryan (+250). Rodgers is completing around 70 percent of his passes in the winning streak with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He now leads the NFL with 36 TD throws, one ahead of Drew Brees and two up on Ryan. I'm not much of a Packers fan, but it's tough not to root for good-guy WR Jordy Nelson after he missed all of 2015 with a torn ACL. Nelson is certainly back, leading the NFL with 14 TD catches. He should win that title because second-place Antonio Brown (12) is expected to sit out Week 17. The Pack still don't have much of a running game, but former receiver Ty Montgomery has his moments there.

Speaking of MVP candidates, Lions QB Matthew Stafford was in the conversation. But then he tore ligaments in his middle finger while also dislocating it during a Week 14 comeback win over Chicago. Stafford wasn't sharp that game and hasn't been in the two since, a 17-6 loss at the Giants and then 42-21 in Dallas on Monday. The finger is clearly bothering him. Counting the Chicago game, Stafford is completing less than 60 percent of his throws with one TD and four picks in the past three. He hasn't had a rating better than 71.8. That's a problem considering the Lions can't run the ball, either. They rank 30th in the NFL. Detroit lost starting running back Ameer Abdullah early in the season. Presumed No. 2 Theo Riddick missed the Cowboys game with a wrist injury and is questionable for Sunday.

The Lions had been carried by their defense as it hadn't allowed more than 20 points to an opposing team since Oct. 16, but that all changed vs. the Cowboys. The unit wasn't full strength Monday as top cornerback Darius Slay was out with a hamstring injury, but he has been practicing, so that looks good. Sans Slay, Dallas QB Dak Prescott completed 75 percent of his passes and threw three touchdowns. Lions CBs Nevin Lawson and Johnson Bademosi each drew pass-interference penalties while trying to cover Dez Bryant.

Packers at Lions Betting Odds and Trends

Green Bay is a 3-point favorite (-120) with a total of 49.5. On the moneyline, the Packers are -175 and Lions +155. On the alternate lines, the Pack are -3.5 (+105) and -2.5 (-145). The Packers are 8-6-1 against the spread (3-4 on road) and 9-6 "over/under" (5-2 on road). The Lions are 8-7 ATS (5-2 at home) and 5-10 O/U (2-5 at home).

The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their past five after a win. They are 9-4 ATS in their past 13 January games. The Lions are 4-10 ATS in their past 14 vs. the NFC North. The over is 5-1 in Green Bay's past six vs. the NFC. The under is 8-1 in Detroit's past nine. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings. The under is 5-2 in the previous seven in Detroit.

Packers at Lions Betting Prediction

Green Bay jumped out to a 31-3 late second-quarter lead over the visiting Lions in Week 3 and won 34-27. Rodgers threw for four scores, two to Nelson. The Lions actually won the statistical battle as they nearly rallied. Stafford had 385 yards and three TDs.

In terms of preparation and rest, the Packers have a two-and-a-half day advantage over the Lions. That's because Green Bay played in an early home kickoff on Saturday in Week 16 and the Lions had that Monday night game in Dallas. Green Bay will be playing for the NFC North title in Week 17 for the fourth consecutive season. The Packers are 2-1 in the previous three games. They flunked a home test vs. Minnesota last year but won't in Detroit. The Packers have won each of the last four matchups vs. the Lions in the final game of the regular season. Give the 2.5 points and go under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Odds: Week 17 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews

While on "Black Monday" we are likely to see a handful of coaches fired, joining Jeff Fisher, Gus Bradley and Rex Ryan as those currently unemployed, let's take a look at which coaches did a fantastic job this year and could be looking at nice extensions or a raise -- not to mention the AP Coach of the Year Award.

Your favorite for Coach of the Year is the Cowboys' Jason Garrett at -300, and it's tough to argue with a guy who has ridden a rookie quarterback and running back to the NFC's best record and top seed. To think, Garrett was considered on the hot seat entering this season once Tony Romo went down in the preseason. Atlanta's Dan Quinn is second at +475. The Falcons are NFC South champions and should be the NFC's second seed. But that's mostly due to the league's best offense and thus offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan likely steals much of the credit as Quinn is a defensive guy. Your other candidates are: Kansas City's Andy Reid (+800), Oakland's Jack Del Rio (+800), New England's Bill Belichick (+800) and Miami's Adam Gase (+2000). I probably would give it to Del Rio considering the Raiders are in the playoffs for the first time since 2002 and might be the AFC's No. 1 despite losing Derek Carr to a broken leg in Week 16.

Week 17 is also likely the last time we see players in certain uniforms. Ravens receiver Steve Smith, a future Hall of Famer, says he's almost positive he's retiring. Smith was going to after 2015 until that season was cut short by injury. At 37, Smith was still productive in 2016 with 67 catches for 765 yards and five scores. He is seventh all-time with 14,697 receiving yards and 12th with 1,028 catches. Will this be it for Cards receiver Larry Fitzgerald? While Smith might not be a first-ballot entry to Canton, Fitz will be. He's still only 33 and has 102 catches for 980 yards and five scores this year. Fitz is No. 3 all-time in catches (1,120), eighth in TDs (103) and ninth in yards (14.346).

There will be plenty of quarterbacks on the move as well. Ryan Fitzpatrick is certainly playing his final game as a Jet on Sunday as is Colin Kaepernick with the 49ers. Jay Cutler is hurt so not playing in Week 17, but he won't be a Bear the next time Chicago takes the field. Carson Palmer might not be back in Arizona. Romo, who now reportedly will play a bit Sunday, is surely gone from Dallas.

Here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 17.

Bills at Jets (+3.5, 42): Fitzpatrick will make the start for the Jets as the team put Bryce Petty on injured reserve earlier this week. I don't understand why New York doesn't go to second-round rookie Christian Hackenberg. I get that he's raw, but this game means less than nothing and it's actually better if the Jets lose for their draft position. Why start a guy you aren't bringing back? It sounds like the Jets are inclined to bring head coach Todd Bowles back for a third season, but that might change with a 40-0 type loss here. Meanwhile, Buffalo fired Ryan on Monday as well as his brother and defensive coordinator Rob. Not unexpected but thought it would happen next Monday. Offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn is the interim coach, and many reports out of Buffalo are that he's the leading candidate for the full-time job. The Bills are benching starting QB Tyrod Taylor for this game. That's because he would be guaranteed around $30 million next season if he were seriously injured. The Bills are likely to walk away from Taylor this offseason. I could see Cutler landing in Buffalo. EJ Manuel starts for Buffalo on Sunday.

Browns at Steelers (-6, 43): This line opened as high as -11 last Sunday night but is plummeting because Pittsburgh already has announced it will rest its Big 3 of Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, which will cost Brown the NFL receptions title. I highly doubt those are the only starters getting this game off as the Steelers are resting up for their wild-card game against most likely Miami next week. On Monday, it seemed unlikely Robert Griffin III would start for Cleveland as he was in the concussion protocol. But RGIII is now on track to start barring a setback (probably his last game in a Browns uniform). Sportsbooks offer a prop on the Browns' starting QB Week 1 next year. Griffin, Josh McCown and Cody Kessler are all +500. Any other QB is -200. I actually think Kessler has a shot to be the guy as whichever rookie the team drafts could sit and learn in the first month or two of the 2017 season.

Chiefs at Chargers (+5.5, 45): It's the final NFL game in San Diego as the Chargers will announce by Jan. 15, barring a miracle, that they are moving to Los Angeles for next season. That's actually a prop on that as well: they do is -350 and don't +225. It sounds like the Chargers will get back running back Melvin Gordon this week as he has returned to practice after missing two games. But Gordon is far from 100 percent and the team likely wants to help him get 1,000 yards. He's at 997. This apparently won't be the final game in a Chargers uniform for future Hall of Fame tight end Antonio Gates. He plans to play one more year in 2017. Gates has 110 TD catches, one behind Tony Gonzalez for the most by a tight end in league history. I wonder if Gates changes his mind on next year if he gets two TDs Sunday. Kansas City gets the AFC West title and No. 2 seed with a victory and Oakland loss in Denver -- those two games kickoff simultaneously. If K.C. and Oakland win, the Chiefs are the No. 5 seed and head to Houston next week. If the Chiefs lose this and Miami beats New England, then Kansas City is the No. 6 and goes to Pittsburgh on wild-card weekend.

Bears at Vikings (-6.5, 42.5): Really the only interesting thing here is whether Minnesota QB Sam Bradford sets the NFL single-season record in completion percentage, which is 71.2 by Drew Brees in 2011. Bradford is at 71.3 and you can bet whether he does get the record: both options are -120. When the Vikings lost in Chicago on Halloween, Bradford completed 62.2 percent of his 37 throws. It seems like Adrian Peterson will sit out again for Minnesota and it's doubtful he's back next year. If the Vikings cut Peterson, 31, they would free up $18 million in cap space. Not looking good for Minnesota top receiver Stefon Diggs as he's dealing with a hip injury. He is 97 yards shy of 1,000.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Packers, Lions hook up

SNF Betting Preview
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Odds: Green Bay (-3.5); Total set at 50.5

While there may be a flood of unimportant games on the Week 17 schedule, the NFL got the one division showdown they were hoping for as the Packers and Lions battle for the NFC North crown. The winner of this game will host a wildcard game, while the loser will have to hope they get some help from the Giants and Panthers by beating the Redskins and Buccaneers respectively. If that were to happen then there is a chance we see these two NFC North rivals meet again next week, but for now it's all about this contest with everything on the line.

When the Green Bay Packers were 4-6 SU after Week 11, Aaron Rodgers came out and said he and his teammates were very confident they could win out and get to the playoffs. Green Bay is one win away from making that statement become a reality and there is no denying they've played their best football of the season the past month and a half.

Unsurprisingly, it's the Packers who have gotten all the early support from bettors when you look at betting percentage numbers (75%) as many expect them to live up to Rodgers' proclaimation and win the division. Green Bay is always going to be a favorite of recreational bettors every year, but with the run they've been on and the Lions looking awful in the 2nd half of MNF vs. Dallas a week ago, it's almost become a perfect storm for bettors to flock to the Packers this week. After all, Green Bay did beat the Lions 34-27 in the first meeting and the game wasn't nearly as close as the final score suggests.

But with the sportsbooks clearly rooting for at least a Detroit cover in this contest, the game turn out to be a bit different. Green Bay may be undefeated since Rodgers made that statement, but the schedule has also worked in their favor. Three of their five wins have come at home, and only two of those five wins came against playoff teams.

It's been on the road where we've seen a significant worse Packers team all year long and their two road wins during this stretch came against Philadelphia and Chicago; not exactly the best of the best in the league. It was also in that trip to Chicago where Green Bay watched the Bears storm back from a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter to tie the game and the Packers needed a Hail Mary and FG with no time left on the clock to escape with a victory. With all the momentum clearly on the Bears side at the time, going to OT could have been disastrous for Green Bay.

The Lions aren't likely to make the same mistakes Chicago did, and it's actually been Detroit who have been a phenomenal fourth quarter team all year long. Should a similar scenario arise this week, Green Bay's luck may actually run out.

Furthermore, when the Packers have been on the road against playoff bound, or teams that were/are in the playoff hunt, they've really struggled aside from one game in Atlanta. Green Bay suffered blow out losses to Washington and Tennessee prior to this five-game winning streak, and lost in Minnesota by three points in Week 2. The game in Atlanta was only a one-point defeat, but Green Bay still allowed 33 points that day in the dome and their 28.9 points allowed per road game this year is cause for concern.

Meanwhile, Detroit has only lost once at home all year long and that was all the way back in Week 2. The 16-15 loss vs. Tennessee was a touch embarrassing at the time for the Lions as it sparked a three-game losing streak, but since then they are a perfect 6-0 SU at home and have gone 8-3 SU (7-4 ATS) overall. Losing two straight on the road to the Giants and Cowboys is nothing to be extremely frustrated over and I know if you told the Lions that they'd have a home game in Week 17 to win the division they'd gladly take it. The fact that everyone is already counting them out here only adds fuel to the fire.

So with the Lions 7-3 ATS after losing by 14+ points, and 5-1 ATS in their last six at home, we could see that 'hook' on +3.5 come very much into play here. The number could even reach +4 or higher by kickoff with plenty more Green Bay money on the horizon, and with the stakes as high as they are, Green Bay's struggles on the road, and the Lions prowess late in games, this game should be decided by three points or less.

Best Bet: Take Detroit +3.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SNF - Packers at Lions
By Micah Roberts

The NFL has selected us a fantastic Sunday Night Football matchup where there's a winner-take-all situation when the Green Bay Packers (9-6 straight up, 8-6-1 against the spread) visit the Detroit Lions (9-6 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) at Ford Field. The winner wins the NFC North which carries a home date in next week's Wild Card round in the playoffs. The loser, depending on results of the Giants-Redskins and Buccaneers-Panthers, might have its season end.

Detroit had control of its own destiny as the NFC North leader, but lost its last two and the game before that they needed quarterback Matt Stafford's eighth fourth-quarter comeback to beat the lowly Bears 20-17. That's three-straight non-covers after being on a 6-1-1 ATS run. The critical link to the Lions not playing as well has been the absence of do-everything running back Theo Riddick (wrist) the last three games, and he didn't practice this week which likely means he's out again.

Meanwhile, the Packers have been winning while the Lions are losing to pull up even at 9-6 in the NFC North. Green Bay has won its last five games (4-1 ATS) and have scored at least 30-points in its last three (all three 'over' winners). They've been in playoff mode the last five weeks because they knew a loss at any juncture after being 4-6 would make this Week 17 game meaningless.

One team is rolling, and the other is one the skids. This one is for all the marbles, with Stafford having his best chance to finally win a division title. But Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers definitely has more big game experience.

The one thing for certain is if betting with the current hot team, you're laying a terribly inflated number that has Green Bay as a 3.5-point road favorite.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Packers -3 prior to the Lions 42-21 loss at Dallas Monday night. After the game started they took it off the board and then re-opened Packers -3.5 on Tuesday. On two instances they have moved the Lions to +3.5 (-120) showing there has been support taking the hook with the home 'dog at a flat price. The total has been bet up from 48 to 49.5. Briefly, before Monday night the total was 46.5

CAPTAIN COMEBACK

Stafford has led a Lions offense to eight fourth-quarter come from behind victories this season, which is an all-time record. It's incredible to think that the Lions have won only nine times this season, which brings to question how good the Lions really are if they're always down late in games. Since Jim Bob Cooter became the offensive coordinator halfway through last season, Stafford has been a changed QB with a short passing game, and he's also been aided by not trying to force passes into the now retired wide receiver Calvin Johnson.

RECENT HISTORY

In the Week 3 meeting at Lambeau Field, the Packers had a 31-10 lead at halftime, and while Detroit outscored them 17-3 in the second-half, Matt Stafford fell short of a comeback in a 34-27 loss. Depending on when betting that game, it fell on the number at +7. Aaron Rodgers tossed four TDs (no picks) and Stafford threw for 385 yards and three TDs (one pick). The favorite has covered eight of the past nine meetings, and most of those have been the Packers who are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes. Green Bay has stayed 'under' in seven of its last 10 games at Detroit.

A TIE IS GOOD

In a season of multiple tied games, this would be a good spot for one as far as the Packers and Lions are concerned because a tie would get both teams into the playoffs. Green Bay would win the division and Detroit would get the wild card. It wouldn't matter what the Redskins did at home against the Giants earlier in the day. If the Redskins win against New York, the loser of this game goes home.

NELSON ALMOST 100 PERCENT?

Jordy Nelson may never be the speedy player he once was before tearing his ACL last season, but he's shown over the Packers five-game winning streak to be as close to his old-self as possible. How does 38 receptions for 524 yards and five TDs over his last five? He's looking almost like the 2014 version of Nelson and currently leads NFL receivers with 14 TDs. He may not be blowing by cornerbacks any more, but he might be a little craftier with his route running to make him at times better than the younger, pre-injury version.

KEY INJURIES

The Lions got some good news this week when cornerback Darius Slay and center Travis Swanson both returned to practice which is a great indication they'll play. The Lions secondary looked lost without Slay last week at Dallas. WR Anquan Boldin practiced as well. but was favoring his injured finger which had a splint on it. The bad news for Detroit was that Riddick and returner Andre Roberts have not practiced through Thursday. The Packers are still likely to be without WR Randall Cobb who is nursing an ankle.

ROBERTS' RATING

I have Green Bay 1-point better than Detroit on a neutral field and I give Ford Field 2.5-points for Detroit, so my raw number on the game is the Lions -1.5. Public perception is worth about 1.5-points for the Packers. However, the public has already shown that they feel Green Bay -3 was too cheap.

TRENDS

-- Green Bay is 9-4 ATS in last 13 January games.
-- Green Bay is 23-11 ATS in last 34 against NFC North teams.
-- Green Bay has seen the 'over' go 7-2 in last nine games.

-- Detroit is 5-1 ATS in past six home games.
-- Detroit is 6-19-1 ATS in last 26 games after allowed 30+ points in previous game.
-- Detroit has watched the 'under' go 8-1 in its last nine games.

SUPER BOWL

The Lions are currently 50/1 odds at the Westgate, which sounds fair considering they have to win their next five games and do it mostly as underdogs. The Packers are 12/1, but the best value right now if liking Green Bay is to roll over a money-line bet on the Packers the next five games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 17

Texans (9-6) @ Titans (8-7)— Battle of backup QB’s; will Houston sit Savage/starters with a playoff game next week? Tennessee’s season unraveled LW with loss to Jaguars and Mariota’s broken leg. Texans (-4.5) beat Titans 27-20 way back in Week 4, running punt back for a TD in game where total yardage was 359-320. Houston is 2-5 on road, winning by 3-5 in its other AFC South road games (Colts/Jags)- they’re 0-1 as road favorites this year but Texans have won four of last five visits here. Underdogs are 6-3-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Under is 4-1 in last five Houston, games, 3-9 in last dozen Titan tilts. Savage won his first NFL start 12-10 over Bengals LW; Cassel is 35-44 as an NFL starter; he started eight games LY, 7 for Dallas, one for Buffalo. Again, Houston has a home playoff game next week.

Bills (7-8) @ Jets (3-12)— Ironic that Rex Ryan’s last (probably) game as Buffalo coach will be in Swamp Stadium, against his old team. Tickets for this game were going for $8 on StubHub on Monday; no home field edge for Jets. Buffalo is 3-4 on road, 1-1 as road favorite; they lost three of last four games. Gang Green lost six of last seven games with win in OT over 49ers when they trailed 17-3 at half- they’re 1-6 at home this season. Jets (+1) won first matchup 37-31 in a Week 2 Thursday game in Buffalo- Jets passed for 370 yards, outgained Bills 493-393- they had TD’s of 84-71 yards. Buffalo won its last two visits here; series has been swept in six of last nine years. Over is 12-2 in last 14 Buffalo games, 3-7-1 in Jets’ last 11 games. Favorites are 5-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games.

Ravens (8-7) @ Bengals (5-9-1)— Baltimore’s season ended on goal line in last 0:10 Sunday night in Pittsburgh; Ravens beat Bengals 19-14 (-4) at home in Week 12, leading 16-3 at half, they were outgained 325-311, but Dalton fumbled on Ravens’ 21 with 1:04 left to seal win. Baltimore lost last four visits here, by 6-17-3-8 points; this series ended in sweeps in six of last nine years. Bengals lost five of last seven games, losing in Houston LW when they missed 43-yard FG wide right at gun; Cincy is 3-3 at home, 3-2 as home favorite. Ravens lost their last five road games; they beat Browns/Jaguars on road back in Weeks 2-3- they’re 1-4 as a road underdog. Over is 4-0 in Ravens’ last four games, 1-6 in Bengals’ last seven. Favorites are 8-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season.

Giants (10-5) @ Redskins (8-6-1)— Big Blue is locked into road playoff game next week while Redskins still have shot at making playoffs; why would Manning/starters play here? It would make no sense. Washington (+4.5) won 29-27 in Swamp Stadium in Week 3; they were +2 in turnovers after trailing 21-16 at half. Giants are 7-3 in last 10 visits here; series has been swept in 7 of last 10 years. New Jersey is 2-4 in true road games, beating Dallas/Browns; they’re 1-3-1 as road underdogs. Redskins won four of last five home games, are 3-2 vs spread as home favorites; they’ve trailed at half in five of their last seven games. Underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in NFC East divisional games. Under is 6-1 in last seven Giant games, 1-7 in last eight Washington games.

Packers (9-6) @ Lions (9-6)— Winner takes NFC North; if game ends in a tie, they both get in, with Packers winning division. Green Bay (-7.5) won first meeting 34-27; they led 31-10 at half, but Stafford threw for 368 yards as Lions got back-door cover. Teams split last six visits here, with wins by 12-4-4 points, including Hail Mary in LY’s game. Packers won last five games (4-1 vs spread), are 3-4 on road, losing both their games in domes by total of 4 points. Detroit has short week after getting thumped in Dallas; they lost last two games on road, but won last six home games, with five of six wins by 3 or less points. Lions trailed in 4th quarter in 14 of 15 games this season. Over is 7-2 in Green Bay’s last nine games, 1-8 in Detroit’s last nine. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this season.

Jaguars (3-12) @ Colts (7-8)— Indianapolis is 6-1 vs spread in game following a loss this year; they lost three of last four home games, are 3-2 as a home favorite. One of Jags’ three wins this year was 30-27 (-1) over Colts in London back in Week 4; they led 23-6 in 4th quarter, held on for win. Jags lost last three visits to Indy, by 20-20-3 points. Jaguars snapped 9-game skid LW in first game after Bradley was fired; they averaged 8.5 yards/pass attempt, their best game of year. Jaguars are 1-6 in true road games, 4-3 as road underdogs. As bad as Jax has been, they’ve trailed at halftime in only one of last six games. In their last five games, Colts are 31-61 on third down. Over is 4-1 in last five Jaguar games, 0-4 in Colts’ last four home games. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this year.

Cowboys (13-2) @ Eagles (6-9)— Short week for Dallas after they pounded Lions Monday nite at home; with bye on deck and then playoffs, why play their best guys here? Philly snapped five-game skid by beating Giants LW; they’ve had four extra days to prep after playing on Thursday. Eagles are 3-9 in last 12 games after a 3-0 start; they’re 5-2 at home, losing to Packers, Redskins. Dallas won 29-23 in OT in first meeting (-4.5), running ball for 187 yards- they outgained Eagles 460-291 in game they trailed 13-10 at half. Cowboys won last four visits here, by 15-14-11-10 points. Home favorites are 3-4 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Last four Philly games went over total; three of last four Dallas games stayed under. Cowboys are 6-1 on road; they’re 0-2 vs Giants, 13-0 vs everyone else.

Bears (3-12) @ Vikings (7-8)— Minnesota is 2-8 in its last ten games after a 5-0 start; when DB’s ignore the gameplan and go rogue, in same season where OC quit midseason, you know team has serious issues. Bears (+5.5) won first meeting 20-10 at home in Week 8, running ball for 158 yards, outgunning Vikings 403-258. Barkley threw eight INT’s in last two games; Bears are -9 in turnovers last two weeks, -16 for season. Chicago is 2-4 as a road underdog this year; they covered four of last six games overall. Minnesota lost three of last four home games, scoring one TD on 20 drives in last two; they’ve got only two takeaways (-6) in last five games. Under is 5-2 in Viking home games, 3-1 in Chicago’s last four road tilts. Underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in NFC North games this season.

Panthers (6-9) @ Buccaneers (8-7)— This series has been swept the last seven years; Bucs (+6) won first meeting 17-14 in Week 6, thanks to +4 turnover ratio- Carolina outgained them 414-315 but was 1-8 on 3rd down in game Bucs led 6-0 at half. Panthers are 2-5 on road, 2-1 as road underdogs; they’re 2-6 vs spread week after a loss this season. Tampa Bay still has an outside shot at making playoffs (they need win and ton of help), but they lost last two games (-5 TO ratio), allowing 26-31 points- they.won last three home games, allowing total of 26 points. Carolina won last three visits here by 18-6-14 points. Underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season. Under is 4-1-1 in Tampa’s last six games, 3-0 in last three Carolina games.

Browns (1-14) @ Steelers (10-5)— Big Ben/Bell/Brown are sitting here to get ready for playoffs next week. Monkey is off Cleveland’s back after they beat Chargers LW; Browns are 2-5 as road underdogs this year; LW was just third time all year they had positive turnover ratio. Not sure if RGIII (concussion) can play here. Pittsburgh won its last six games (5-1 vs spread); they are 4-2 as home favorites- this game means very little to them. Steelers won first meeting 24-9 (-8) at home six weeks ago, scoring defensive TD and sacking Brown QB’s 8 times in game they led 14-0 at half. Pitt is 22-3 in last 25 series games, winning last 12 meetings here. Under is 6-1 in last seven Cleveland games, 11-3 in Steelers’ last 14 games. Favorites are 8-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season.

Saints (7-8) @ Falcons (10-5)— Atlanta gets #2 seed in NFC with win here; they scored 38.7 pts/game in winning last three games with +7 turnover ratio, they’re 2-4 as a home favorite this year. New Orleans scored 79 points in winning last couple games; they’re 9-3 vs spread in last 12 games. NO is 3-4 on road, 4-1 as a road underdog; they scored 24-18 second half points in last two games. Saints won 10 of last 12 visits here; this series has been swept seven of last ten years. Falcons (+3) won first meeting 45-32 in Superdome back in Week 3- Atlanta scored five TD’s on 8 drives and also scored a defensive TD. Underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season. Under is 6-4 in Saints’ last ten games, 3-12 in Atlanta games this season.

Patriots (13-2) @ Dolphins (10-5)— New England is playing for top seed in AFC; Miami has a road playoff game next week. This series has split 8 of last 12 years; Patriots lost last three trips to Miami, by 4-13-10 points. NE won its last six games overall, covered its last four; they’re 10-1 with Brady at QB, 5-1 as a road favorite- they beat Miami 31-24 (-6.5) in Week 2 when Garoppolo was NE’s QB. Dolphins won nine of last ten games, covered last three; they’ve won five in row at home since losing here to Tennessee in Week 5. Miami covered five of last six tries as an underdog. Home side/favorites are 5-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Patriot games; last five Miami games went over the total.

Cardinals (6-8-1) @ Rams (4-11)- Carson Palmer returns to his home field from his college days at USC for first time since 2002. Arizona lost four of last six games; they’re 2-5 on road, winning 33-21 at SF, 34-31 LW at Seattle. Arizona is 4-7 as a favorite this year. Rams lost 10 of last 11 games, are 0-6 with Goff at QB; they lost last five home games after winning home opener 9-3 over Seattle. LA was outscored 50-21 in second half of last three games. This series has been swept six of last nine years; Rams won first meeting 17-13 back in Week 4, even though Redbirds outgained them 420-288 (LA was +4 in turnovers). Cardinals went 9-2 in last 11 games vs Rams in St Louis. Divisional home underdogs are 10-4 vs spread in NFC games. Last six Arizona games went over total; under is 6-3 in Rams’ last nine games.

Chiefs (11-4) @ Chargers (5-10)— Will likely be sad day here, Chargers’ last game in Qualcomm before they bolt for LA. Chiefs need win here and Raider loss in Denver to win AFC West. KC won four of last five games; they won last five road games, are 2-0 as road favorites this year. Chargers lost last four games (0-4 vs spread, -6 turnovers); they lost last three home games, by 7-7-3 points. San Diego is 2-5 in last seven games despite being favored in five of the seven games. This series has been swept in six of last eight years; San Diego blew 21-3 halftime lead in season opener, lost 33-27 in OT at Arrowhead. Chiefs won 23-20/33-3 in last two visits here. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC West games this season. Under is 4-0-1 in last five Charger games, 10-4 in last 14 Chief games.

Seahawks (9-5-1) @ 49ers (2-13)— Seattle needs win here and Atlanta loss to get #2 seed in NFC and next week off, but Seahawks have been struggling, going 2-3 in last five games, with losses to Bucs/Cardinals. Seattle is 2-4-1 on road, winning 27-17 at Jets, 31-24 in Foxboro, tying Arizona. 49ers are 2-0 vs Rams, 0-13 vs everyone else; they’re 1-6 at home, 1-5 as a home underdog- they blew 17-3 halftime lead in last home game, an OT loss to Jets. This series was split five of last eight years; Seattle (-9.5) won 37-18 at home in first meeting back in Week 3, averaging 8.6 yds/pass attempt in game they led 24-3 at half. Seattle was outscored 38-16 in first half of last three games. Divisional home underdogs are 10-4 vs spread in NFC games. Over is 9-5 in 49ers’ last 14 games, 3-1 in last four Seattle games.

Raiders (12-3) @ Broncos (8-7)— McGloin (1-5 as NFL starter, with starts in ’13) replaces injured Carr at QB for Oakland, which needs win for AFC West title (if NE also loses, Raiders would get #1 seed in AFC). This series has been swept four of last six years; Oakland (-1) beat Denver 30-20 at home back in Week 9, outgaining Denver by 98 yards- two of their three TDs in game were on drives of less than 60 yards. Denver lost its last three games, is 5-3 as a favorite this year; Broncos turned ball over eight times (-6) in last three games- they were outscored 18-0 in second half of last two games. Raiders lost three of last four visits here, with all three losses by 16+ points. Over is 11-4 in Oakland games, 1-3 in last four Denver games. Home favorites are 5-2 vs spread in AFC West divisional games this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

The stakes action on New Year’s Day is light with just a couple of graded stakes on tap, and neither are great betting races.

Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Arrogate goes in the $200,000 San Pasqual (G2) at Santa Anita. The Bob Baffert trainee is 1-5 on the morning line in a small field of five.

The colt is using the race as a prep for the $12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational where he will face off again with California Chrome.

The feature at Gulfstream Park is the $100,000 Mr. Prospector (G3), a six-furlong sprint that drew a field of six led by a pair sent out by trainer Jorge Navarro.

He saddles the 9-5 morning line favorite Delta Bluesman, who makes his first start since running sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).

Navarro’s Shaft of Light (2-1) is coming off a career top speed figure in his 6 ¾ length win in the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit at seven furlongs. I have a hunch this guy is going to bounce.

I went with a price in Candip, who is 5-1 on the morning line. Trained by Michael Tomlinson, he was a neck winner in the Fabulous Strike at Penn National in his last out, rallying from seventh.

He will be closer to the lead today and could pull off the upset if the Navarro runners are not “juiced up” to run their best.


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $6,250N3L (12:00 ET)
#1 Summer Whites 5-2
#2 Capriasca 7-2
#7 Pelagia 2-1
#3 Playa Zaragoza 4-1

Analysis: Summer Whites hopped at the break, was outrun early and made a mild late bid to finish third last out ion her first start off the claim by the Sancal barn. The filly was up dueling for the lead two back at Churchill Downs before weakening to finish fourth. Breaks from the rail here and with a better break she should be in the mix early.

Capriasca goes turf to dirt here after prompting the early pace and weakening to finish fifth last out against $16,000 non-winners of three. Her last dirt try was three back against restricted $8,000 foes at Churchill Downs. She broke her maiden over the main track here for a $16,000 tag in her debut back in Dec. of '15.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,3,7
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,4,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 OClm $40,000N2X (3:50 ET)
#5 True Bet 6-1
#1 Championofthenile 8-5
#3 John's Island 4-1
#9 Nobody Move 12-1

Analysis: True Bet set the early fractions and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish, down along the inside most of the trip on a day the inside was dead. He is 0 for 7 on off going and the return to a fast surface will suit this guy. He tends to lands for minor shares but looks as if he fits here with his best and will be a decent enough price.

Championofthenile makes his first start since June where he was third in the state bred Ontario County at Finger Lakes. This guy has landed in the money in four state bred stakes and fits here facing Alw-2 foes here. The Rice barn is 19% winners with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,3,5,9
TRI: 1,5 / 1,3,5,9 / 1,2,3,5,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 10 OClm $75,000N1X (4:34 ET)
#9 Gale Force 6-1
#5 Lipstick City 3-1
#8 Tamit 7-2
#1 Bitacora 10-1

Analysis: Gale Force broke her maiden winning the Mazarine (G3) on poly at Woodbine and then was seventh last out in her turf debut in the Jessamine (G3) at Churchill Downs. She drops into an easier spot here facing Alw-1 optional claimers and the Casse trainee has a nice pedigree. She is out of the multiple turf stakes winner Sealy Hill ($1.2 million) who has dropped four winners including two turf winners and two other stakes winners, top earner Hillaby ($282,265).

Lipstick City made a good late rally to get up and break her maiden in her debut at Belmont Park going a mile and then was not a threat last out in an eighth-place finish in the Jessamine where she had some traffic troubled in the stretch. She figures to bounce back here dropping into a better spot for the Brown barn.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 5,9 / 1,5,8,9
TRI: 5,9 / 1,5,8,9 / 1,5,6,8,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R3: #6 Anothermouthtofeed 8-1
R5: #5 Mr. Stipa 12-1
R6: #5 Moonless Sky 8-1
R7: #2 Wild Good 15-1
R7: #6 J B Quick 10-1
R8: #12 Souper True 12-1
R9: #2 Sweet Butterfly 10-1
R10: #1 Bitacora 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spot Plays

For Sunday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (4th) Chosen One Elijah, 8-1
(9th) Katie Ice, 3-1


Fair Grounds (3rd) Tale of Courage, 6-1
(5th) Derek Fever, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (2nd) Rock ‘n On Home, 9-2
(5th) Rose Among Thorns, 3-1


Gulfstream Park (2nd) Gold Shark, 4-1
(6th) Blenheim Palace, 4-1


Laurel Park (5th) Sweet Peaches, 4-1
(8th) Clare’s Dowery, 3-1


Parx (2nd) Hazy Daisy, 9-2
(6th) Clowney, 9-2


Santa Anita (2nd) Untouchable U, 7-2
(4th) Basinca, 4-1


Sunland Park (6th) Dances for Kamia, 5-1
(9th) Happy Hennessy, 4-1


Tampa Bay Downs (6th) Eternal Tempest, 3-1
(7th) Rashette, 7-2


Turf Paradise (4th) Teapartysuccess, 3-1
(8th) Tequila Factor, 4-1


Turfway Park (3rd) Flashy Julia, 5-1
(8th) Temple Tantrum, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday Night Football Betting Preview: Packers at Lions

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3, 49.5)

The final regular-season game of the 2016 will determine the NFC North Division champion but both combatants -- the host Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers -- could be assured of playoff berths before kickoff on Sunday night. The surging Packers have ripped off five consecutive victories to move into a tie atop the division with Detroit, which is trying to avoid a third straight defeat.

Both teams will get into the postseason if the Washington Redskins lose at home to the New York Giants, otherwise there are myriad playoff possibilities. The Lions, who have been dominated in back-to-back losses to the Giants and Dallas, have an outside chance to earn a first-round bye while Green Bay cannot finish higher than the No. 3 seed in the NFC. Detroit needs to find a way to contain Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who threw four touchdowns in a 34-27 win in Week 3 and was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week after tossing four scoring passes in a 38-25 victory over Minnesota. "He plays the game in a unique way, probably different than any quarterback in the league," Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford said of Rodgers, who threw a 61-yard Hail Mary pass on the final play of the game to shock Detroit in his last appearance at Ford Field.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Packers (-3) - Lions (0.5) + home field (-3) = Lions -0.5

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as 3.5-point home dogs and that number has faded half-point to a field goal. The total opened at 48 and has been bet up 1.5 points to the current number of 49.5.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

WHAT BOOKS SAY: “We opened the Packers as 3 point favs heading into this matchup early this week and took heavy public action on that number forcing us to move up to -3.5 where we took some sharp action on the Lions to cover the +3.5, that pushed as back down Packers -3. We have since moved back to Packers -3.5 with over 70% of the action on the Packers to cover.” - Michael Stewart.

INJURY REPORT:

Green Bay - QB Aaron Rodgers (probable, neck), G T.J. Lang (questionable, foot), CB Damarious Randall (questionable, shoulder), LB Joe Thomas (questionable, back), C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), LB Jayrone Elliott (questionable, hand), WR Randall Cobb (questionable, ankle), CB Ladarius Gunter (questionable, elbow), OT Bryan Bulaga (questionable, shoulder), RB James Starks (doubtful, concussion)

Detroit - QB Matthew Stafford (probable, finger), WR Anquan Boldin (probable, finger), WR Andre Roberts (questionable, shoulder), LB DeAndre Levy (questionable, knee), C Travis Swanson (questionable, concussion), CB Darius Slay (questionable, hamstring), RB Theo Riddick (out, wrist), DT Stefan Charles (IR, knee), RB Ameer Abdullah (questionable, foot)

ABOUT THE PACKERS (9-6 SU, 8-6-1 ATS, 9-6 OU): Rodgers is making good on his proclamation the Green Bay could run the table after a four-game skid left the Packers sitting at 4-6, and he's done his best to make it happen with 11 scoring passes and zero interceptions during the winning streak. Rodgers has an NFL-high 36 touchdown passes and 14 of them have gone to Jordy Nelson, who is coming off a monster performance with nine catches for 154 yards and a pair of scores against Minnesota and also went over 100 yards and two TDs versus Detroit in Week 3. Converted running back Ty Montgomery has boosted the ground game but the key could be the defense. The Packers rank 29th against the pass at 265.1 yards per game.

ABOUT THE LIONS (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS, 5-10 OU): Stafford has posted three of his four lowest passer ratings over the past three games, tossing four interceptions against one touchdown since injuring the middle finger on his throwing hand, but he blamed the miscues more on poor decision-making than the injury. Running back Theo Riddick (wrist) has missed the past three games and did not practice Thursday, but Zach Zenner provided a spark to the running game with 67 yards and two touchdowns on 12 rushes last week. Top cornerback Darius Slay (hamstring) missed last week's game but practiced on a

TRENDS:

* Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
* Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 vs. NFC.
* Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Favorite is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road favorite Packers are getting 64 percent of the wagers and the over is getting 69 percent of the Over/Under action.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday’s 6-pack

Week 17’s most popular selections in the Westgate SuperContest:

6) Carolina Panthers +6 (350)

5) Denver Broncos -1 (374)

4) Baltimore Ravens +2 (389)

3) Detroit Lions +3.5 (405)

2) Miami Dolphins +9.5 (417)

1) Green Bay Packers -3.5 (538)


Nine things that have to happen for Tampa Bay to make the NFL playoffs

— Chiefs beat Denver— DONE

— Cowboys beat Detroit- DONE

— Buccaneers beat Carolina

— Lions over Green Bay

— Giants tie Washington

— Cowboys over Philadelphia

— 49ers over Seattle

— Titans over Houston

— Colts over Jacksonville

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Early Sunday's Free Selection: Dallas Cowboys + 5 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: NFL San Francisco +9½ Over Seattle

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SUNDAY: Take BALTIMORE/CINCINNATI UNDER the total of 41½

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Totals4U

Early Sunday's Free Selection: Dallas Cowboys/Philadelphia Eagles over 43 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Atlantic Sports

Early Sunday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Carolina/Tampa Bay over 46

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Platinum Plays

Free Pick: NFL Seattle/San Francisco Game UNDER 43 Points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Early New Year's Day Selection Tampa Bay -3½

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Golden Dragon Sports

Free Pick Houston +4

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Huddle Up Sports

Bonus Play Buffalo -3'

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawkeye Sports

Early Sunday's Free Pick: Seattle Seahawks - 9 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Sunday: Take SEATTLE -9½ over San Francisco