Sunday 07/05/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Hip2Bsq]

Can someone explain how the Prof8T covers Run Line Chase System works?

If a team has played to the under for 6 straight games then a chase is started on betting the Over for 6 games or stop when it hits.

If a team has played to the OVER for 6 straight games then a chase is started on betting that they will have an under one time in the next six games. Stop betting if the under hits, even on game one of the chase.

A push during the chase is ignored. Start small on your units.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Sunday's free selection:

Houston Astros - 110



Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: MLB

Minnesota w/Blackburn -140 Over Detroit



Platinum Plays

Free Selection MLB:

KANSAS CITY ROYALS - 120 OVER the Chicago White Sox



Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR SUNDAY:

ARIZONA (Haren) +105 over Colorado



Totals4U

Sunday's free selection:

Houston/San Francisco over 8



Big Time

Bonus Play

TAMPA BAY / TEXAS OVER 9.5


Computer Sports

SUNDAY FREE WINNER!!

CUBS-160



Nevada Sharpshooter

Free Selection

Pittsburgh +160 over Florida



Dr. Vegas

FREE Sunday Selection

Dodgers -160 over Padres



TV Hotline

Free Sunday MLB Pick

Minnesota -140 over Detroit



Harry Doyle Sports

Free Selection MLB:

Phillies Pk



The Vegas Steam Line

Free Winner for Sunday:

NY METS (Santana) Pick'em over Philadelphia



High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Sunday:

Houston Astros - 110

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LT Profits Sports Group

Bonus Play

Rick Porcello and Nick Blackburn both have deceptively good year-to-date numbers, but both are starting to show their true colors today. Go Over in this possible slugfest today.
We feel that neither Rick Porcello of the Detroit Tigers nor Nick Blackburn of the Minnesota Twins are as good as some of their numbers this year may indicate, so we look for a higher scoring game here than others might expect.

Sure, Porcello is 8-5 with a 3.90 ERA, but he puts too many men on base for our liking with a 1.41 WHIP. Besides, his regression appears to have already begun, as we was bombed for five earned runs on nine hits in just 4.1 innings by the normally light-hitting Oakland Athletics last Monday, and he now has a 4.80 ERA with a disgusting 2.13 WHIP over his last three starts.

As for Blackburn, his numbers look even better at 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.30 WHIP overall. However, he too appears to be coming back down to earth as he has allowed double-digit hit totals in each of his last two starts. He was downright terrible in his only start vs. Detroit this year, getting lit up for nine runs (six earned) on eight hits while lasting only 4.1 innings at Comerica Park, which is more pitcher friendly than the Metrodome.

Finally, the Over is still 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings even with the game staying Under yesterday, and we look for a return to the norm here.

Free Pick: Tigers, Twins Over 9 (-110)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Alexander

Bonus Play for July 5, 2009

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs -165

After getting crushed yesterday, I like the Cubs to come storming back with a win behind dominant southpaw Ted Lilly. Lilly has posted an ERA of just 1.85 at Wrigley this season and not surprisingly the Cubs are 6-1 in his home starts. The Cubs are 20-6 in Lilly's last 26 home starts and 6-1 in their last 7 home games. The Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 road games and 1-8 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Bet the Cubs in this bounce back spot.

1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -165

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Price

Bonus Play for 7/5/09

Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels -1½+114

Baltimore is 7-30 when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons, 2-15 revenging a road blowout loss vs. an opponent of 6 runs or more over the last 2 seasons, and 5-20 in road games after 2 or more consecutive road games this season. The Angels are 13-2 after a win by 4 runs or more this season and 54-25 in Saunders' last 79 starts. Saunders didn't pitch very well last time out, but that swings the odds heavily in his favor this afternoon as the Angels are 5-1 in his last 6 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance and 10-1 after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing in his career.
Take the Angels showing good value on the run line.

1 Unit on LAA Angels -1.5 +114

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Benton Bonus Play
I back the Phillies over the Mets.

Certainly, the starting pitching matchup in this one looks to favor the Mets, with Johan Santana (9-6, 3.34 ERA) squaring off against Philly’s Joe Blanton (4-4, 5.08). And it’s no secret to anyone who’s been with me the last couple of years that I’m not a fan of Blanton at all. That said, I’m willing to overlook the perceived starting pitching mismatch for one basic reason: The Mets are absolutely dreadful right now.

By losing the first two games of this series 7-2 and 4-1, New York has lost seven of its last nine games. The two victories? A 1-0 win at Milwaukee on Wednesday and a 9-8, 10-inning makeup-game victory at Pittsburgh on Thursday. During this nine-game stretch, the Mets have scored two runs or fewer six times, and they’ve been held to three runs or less in nine of their last 12 games. What’s more, in the 10 games that preceded Saturday’s 4-1 loss to the ancient Jamie Moyer, New York had hit .238 as a team, including .232 against right-handers.

Now, in full disclosure, the Phillies aren’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball themselves right now. But the offense has come to life a bit in the first two games of this series (11 runs), and Philadelphia has now won four straight games against the Mets while tallying 22 runs.

Finally, as for the great Santana, gotta tell ya, I haven’t been impressed at all lately. The lefty gave up six runs in six innings in Tuesday’s 6-3 loss at Milwaukee, and New York is just 2-4 in his last six starts with Santana yielding a total of 27 runs (25 earned) in 36 1/3 innings (6.19 ERA) while striking out just 18 batters. And if you go back to June 1, the Mets have just 11 wins in their last 31 games.

Throw in Blanton’s strong career numbers against the Mets (1-0, 2.14 ERA in three starts), and I’ll back the better all-around team, at home, in this pick-em spot.
3? PHILADELPHIA (BASED ON A 1? TO 10? SCALE)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Karl Garrett Bonus Play
G-Man is on a 4-2 comp play run the last 6 days.

NL East series finale from the Bank today, and I am all over the Phillies to garner the sweep of the Metropolitans.

The Mets have now lost 7 of their last 9 games, and even "ace" Johan Santana has been unable to find consistent footing this season, as the southpaw is an un-Santana-like 3-4 with an over 5 ERA away from home this year.

Santana's last start against the Phillies saw 5 runs score in 7 innings of work, but he was able to leave with the win. That won't be the case today, as the New York offense is just non-existent these days, and cannot be counted on to give any New York starter solid run support.

True, Joe Blanton has been non-spectacular this season, but the Phillies are now 3-1 at home against the Mets this season, and have their ducks in a row, as they get the brooms out this afternoon at home.

Phillies to pull of the 3-game sweep.
2? PHILADELPHIA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dominic Fazzini Bonus Play
Aside from Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren (7-5, 2.19 ERA) has been the most dominant pitcher in the National League this year. The Arizona right-hander has gone at least seven innings and allowed two or fewer runs in seven straight starts, going 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA.

The National League’s ERA leader gave up one run in seven innings Tuesday in a 6-2 win over Cincinnati, and even added a home run and double at the plate.

Haren has a 0.64 ERA in two starts against the Rockies this year, giving up one run in 14 innings, and he is 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA in six outings vs. Colorado.

Rockies right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez (6-7, 3.75) has tossed 14 scoreless innings in his last two starts against Arizona, including seven in his first start this year. He has a 2.79 ERA over his last 11 starts, but the Diamondbacks are coming off a game in which they rallied from a 4-0 deficit to win 11-7.

I think Arizona will carry that momentum into today, especially with its ace taking the mound. Go with the Diamondbacks.

4? ARIZONA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Michael Cannon Bonus Play
Take the Phillies for the home win and series sweep over the Mets today.

Johan Santana gets the nod for the Mets and he’s been struggling lately. There are reports that his fastball is not where it was at the beginning of the season and the results recently have backed that up.

The left-hander has lost three of his last four starts overall and has a 10.20 ERA in losing his last three road starts.

The Phillies have been struggling as well, but they are showing signs of breaking out.

Philadelphia is looking to sweep a series at home for the first time since taking a three-game set from the Nationals at the end of May. The Phillies have also won four straight overall against the Mets.

Take Philadelphia as they grab the home win.
3? PHILADELPHIA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Drew Gordon Bonus Play
I'm now on a 22-10 roll with the plays I'm giving away, incl. the Marlins over the Pirates 5-3 Saturday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Chi. White Sox/Kansas City match-up.

Good spot to back the White Sox, as they look to rebound from Saturday's 6-4 loss to the Royals. Offensively they were solid, but Gavin Floyd got roughed up by what has been a sputtering KC offense... Look for the Royals to get back to their anemic ways this afternoon, as Clayton Richard gets the nod in this one.

The White Sox southpaw has been much more effective on the road, going 2-0 with a solid 4.02 ERA this season. Not only that, but in his last start against the Royals (also at Kauffman), he was stellar, allowing 2 runs on 6 hits over 7 innings for the win back on May 29th! He also struck out 7 and walked only 1 batter in that effort, making for one of his more effective starts on the year.

The same cannot be said for the Royals Brian Bannister, who despite some solid efforts in June, has NOT fared well against the White Sox, going 2-4 with an astronomical 8.15 ERA in 10 career starts against them! There's no doubt he was excellent in his last home start, limiting the Twins to 1 earned over 7 innings, but he received just 1 run of support in a bitter loss. More of the same today, because even if Bannister can break out of his funk against the White Sox, who's to say their pathetic offense will get anything done against Richard?!

Bottom line, look for the White Sox to get back on track today, as they are clearly playing better ball than the Royals, winners of 7 of their last 8 overall. Not only that, but what appears to be a pitching mismatch is actually an edge for the Sox, as Bannister has traditionally been a disaster against the South Siders. White Sox take care of business Sunday afternoon!

Take the Chicago White Sox behind Richard over Kansas City and Bannister in this MLB match up.
3? CHI. WHITE SOX

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chris Jordan, Featured Handicapper
Bonus Play
I'm playing a total tonight, as I like this late game.

The nationally televised game between contenders in their respective divisions will come down to which pitcher lasts longer. And while I’m admittedly inclined to side with expert junk-ball specialist Matt Garza, I won’t take my chances against a team that ranked No. 1 in runs scored last season, and is better this season while currently sitting at 13th in the league.

This is a strange Rangers team, which has put up double digits repeatedly throughout the year, only to come back the next night – or two, three, four in a row thereafter – and fizzles at the plate. To wit: the Rangers have scored 10 or more runs five times this season. In their next game they’ve never put up more than five and average 3.4 runs in the immediate game afterward.

That being said, on a night after winning 12-4, I’m being careful with Garza taking the hill, knowing he can set this aggressive lineup and keep it off-balance with his repertoire of pitches.

As for Texas, right-handed Scott Feldman has now started 13 straight appearances after opening the year in the bullpen and has been consistent for the Rangers with a 6-2 record. And while he rolls in with a 4.09 ERA for the season, as a starter that number drops to 3.38. That tells me that once the 26-year-old was able to expand his arsenal and had a bigger pitch count to work with, he was much more comfortable on the hill. In those 13 starts, he’s allowed no more than two earned runs in seven of those outings, and no more than three in 11 of them.

With Feldman toeing the slab, and taking a look specifically at the betting numbers, the under is on runs of 27-11 overall, 7-1 in Arlington and 9-1 against A.L. East foes.

On top of that, and even more relevant to the here and now, the low is 11-4-1 in all of Garza’s starts in 2009, including his last seven starts. Even better, each of Garza’s seven road starts this season has stayed low. The righty’s three starts against Texas last season stayed under.

As a team, the defending American League champion is on under runs of 6-1 overall (4-1 on the road), 5-1 against teams with a winning record and 16-5-1 against right-handed starters. Likewise, Texas brings under tendencies of 37-15-1 overall, 20-7-1 at home, 7-1 against the A.L. East and 22-8-1 against right-handers (13-3-1 at home).

Finally, the under is on a 5-2 run when these two do battle in Arlington. In front of nationally televised audience, look for these two pitch lights out.
2? UNDER RAYS/RANGERS

 

[jcheckers]

If a team has played to the under for 6 straight games then a chase is started on betting the Over for 6 games or stop when it hits.

If a team has played to the OVER for 6 straight games then a chase is started on betting that they will have an under one time in the next six games. Stop betting if the under hits, even on game one of the chase.

A push during the chase is ignored. Start small on your units.

Could you explain further, according to statfox neither team is on a 6
gm. O/U streak. Thanks :thumbsup:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matt Rivers

Complimentary Play

Giants minus 1 1/2 runs here on Saturday!

For Sunday take the number back with the A's at the Jake.


Yes I'm stubborn to back the horrific A's once again as they easily could get drilled here thanks to the monster disadvantage on the mound but bad teams cannot be laying prices such as this and Cleveland is still a bad team!


Gio Gonzalez is not good at all and I'm not going to act like he is. On the opposite extreme Cliff Lee is the reigning Cy Young award winner who can dazzle at the drop of a hat. But with that said Lee was just rocked in that last outing against the White Sox at home and maybe, just maybe, could have a little bit of a tired arm after pitching a lot of innings in the first half of this season.


Both teams have struggled mightily overall this season leading me to believe that truly neither can really stake a claim to ever having such an advantage in a game no matter the pitching matchup.


We will need Holliday or Giambi or Cust or one of the Oakland big boppers to do something today as we are behind the eight ball a bit from the get go but to be able to go against Eric Wedge and his disastrous and underachieving Indians plus this number is too good to totally pass up.

1♦ (out of 5) Athletics

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trace Adams

SUNDAY'S COMP PLAY

Arizona-Colorado UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Delaney

Today's Complimentary Selection

I am on a 26-16-1 run with complimentary releases.

Going to side with Matt Garza in this one, as the Rangers have been null and void following a game in which they score double digits. Going back a little more than a week, Texas throttled the lowly Padres who were in after a trip to Seattle. The Rangers appeared to have found their offense after showing life in their previous series in Phoenix. Yet the next night after dismantling San Diego, the Rangers scored three and lost the game.


They’ve score double digits five times this season, and look at the results when that happens: 12 runs in the first game, next game two runs; 19 runs, three runs; 10, and then five; 14 runs, followed by four; and, finally, the aforementioned San Diego quagmire.


And if there is any one pitcher who could manipulate an overconfident lineup the night after it went swing-happy, it’s Garza. The crafty right-hander has surrendered a single run in each of his last two starts while scattering 10 hits and registering 10 strikeouts in 15 combined innings, beating the Phillies 7-1 at home and the Blue Jays 4-1 in Toronto.


Looking at Garza’s last 10 starts, he’s faced four of the top nine hitting teams in the bigs – Toronto (3rd), the Yankees (4th), Minnesota (8th) and Boston (8th). And in those starts, he’s last 26 innings, given up just eight earned runs, struck out 17 and has an ERA of 2.77. Thus, I think Tampa has the perfect guy on the hill to close this series.

2♦ TAMPA BAY RAYS (WITH Garza only)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Sports Investing Professional

Today's Play(s) -I've gone over all the matchups today
and they suck. I'm just going to take the day off as I have no
interest in any of the big lays that are out there and none of
the totals present any value. Enjoy your Sunday and we'll
see if we can't come up with any gems on Monday.

Record (9-3) + $2200

 

[mark3]

checkers the o/u was an example the actual pick is to take boston run line

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Winner Line-Cubs
Gary Scott-UNDER Colorado
OTM-OVER Cubs
Kevin Kennedy-Angels

 

[backdoorcover1]

Steve budin has a 25 dimer if anyone is interested

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LEE KOSTROSKI

Bonus Play

Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers

PICK: Texas Rangers

Just as the Rays appeared poised for another run at the AL East title they have dropped three straight including being outscored 15-5 in the first two games of this series. Although Tampa Bay has delivered a very solid record this season it has been built on winning two thirds of its home games as the Rays feature an 18-25 record away from Tropicana. Texas meanwhile has won four straight games to pull even for the AL West lead and the Rangers are ten games above .500 at home.

The Rays are just 2-5 behind Matt Garza on the road even though he owns solid overall numbers. Garza came up big for the Rays in the postseason last year but his results have not been spectacular this season and Tampa Bay is just 8-8 in his starts. Garza has walked 42 batters this season and he has allowed 14 home runs which has been problematic. Overall this season the Rays have featured the superior bullpen in this match-up but Texas has delivered a 2.43 relief pitching ERA over the last ten games.

The Rangers are 9-4 behind Scott Feldman this season and he has allowed three or fewer runs in eleven of his 13 starts. Feldman does not post the strikeout numbers that Garza does, but he also rarely allows walks and he has learned to pitch in a hazardous home venue. Feldman owns a 3.91 ERA at home this season which is very strong for a ballpark that has the 5th highest OPS in baseball. Tampa Bay is just 9-20 the last 29 meetings in Texas and the Rangers should be in good position to sweep this series at a very favorable price.