Sunday 06/28/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamehunter

2009 Record: 312-303, +59.3649 Bloombergs
Saturday: 5-3, +4.2875 units

Ok....let me make this very clear...something has gone terribly wrong on Sundays lately for me and I'm not sure why....Sundays are the one day where almost every game is played in the daytime so I am incorporating that analysis more today and also managers tend to rest more players, which isn't easy to predict.

No matter what....proceed with caution....the last three Sundays, I am 9-23 (28%) and down -21.6525 units.


I am posting in two waves today. I will be back before noon if and when I add something:


UNDER CINCY/CLEVE 10 RUNS (-110) (1.75 UNITS)

OVER SF/MILW 9.5 RUNS (+108) (1.5 UNITS)

WASHINGTON +136 (1.5 UNITS)

ATIZONA -120 (1.75 UNITS)

YANKEES -133 (1.75 UNITS)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Delaney

Today's Complimentary Selection

We're on a 22-13-1 run with complimentary releases, and tonight we're taking the Cardinals to get it done over the Twins.


1♦ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (Pineiro and Liriano)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trace Adams

SUNDAY'S COMP PLAY

Phillies

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony Weston

Today's Complimentary Selection

The Twins can’t take care of business and end up costing us. That’s fine because we’re getting back on the winning track tonight as we’re taking the Total in the Yankees-Mets matchup.

The Total for this game is set at 10 runs and these two will blow right past that. Despite totaling only 5 runs yesterday, the Under has come in 3 of their 5 meetings this season, including 2 of the last 3 matchups. The Over is also 8-5 their last 13 contests against one another.

Consider, too, that the Yankees have seen the Over come in 3 of their last 4 games overall and 4 of their last 6. The Mets have seen the Over go 4-3 their last 7 games

These teams will see the Over come in again as they blow past the Total easily tonight.

3♦ YANKEES-METS OVER

(on a 1♦ - 5♦ Scale)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

Boston at Atlanta
Play under the total
These two played a 1-0 game yesterday and out of the last 37 meetings in Atlanta there have been 24 unders, 11 overs and 2 pushes. Brad Penny has an ERA of 1.62 in his last 3 while Tommy Hanson's is 1.06 and they have combined for 1 over and 5 unders in that span. Look for another under on Sunday!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MTi Sports

San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are 21-4 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series and the Giants are 1-14 as a road dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games. Consider Milwaukee.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Evan Altemus

STL / MIN Under 8.5
Both of these line-ups have not been hitting well lately, specifically in this series. Yesterday almost all of the runs were scored by two home runs by Albert Pujols and a double from Minnesota. This weak offensive output by Minnesota is particularly notable because Todd Wellemeyer, who has been inconsistent all season, pitched for St. Louis. Today lefty Francisco Liriano takes the mound for the Twins, and he should have success against the Cardinals. St. Louis really struggles against lefties, even at home. Meanwhile, Joel Piniero has pitched very well lately. He will have no problem shutting down the struggling Twins.
2 UNIT SELECTION

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dwayne Bryant

Bonus Play

Yankees at Mets +112

Summary: This is definitely more of a play against Wang rather than a play on Hernandez and the banged-up Mets. Wang has been just plain horrible (0-6, 14.65 ERA, 2.61 WHIP), especially on the road (0-4, 16.05 ERA, 3.00 WHIP). This is also a shaky spot for the Yankees, as this is their last game of a 10-day road trip before returning home. Teams will many times "mail it in" in these situations.

I'll take the Mets to avoid the home sweep on national TV.

 

[bigjonson]

Anyone got Jimmy Boyd's 5* NY play?

 

[Yanks]

Brad Diamond

Bonus Play

Play on: Colorado over Oakland

Really like Vinny Mazzaro of Oakland who has put together a solid 2-2 record and a 2.56 ERA. However, the kid goes up against veteran hurler Aaron Cook who carries a 7-3 record and a respectable 4.00 ERA. The Rockies are 8-2 on Sunday's with Cook and have supported the righty lately going 4-0 last four times out.

With Oakland 21-49 versus a winning club and 7-17 on Sunday's, the Diamond is all over the underdog Mile High gang.

 

[Yanks]

Jimmy Boyd

Bonus Play

Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros:

Detroit Tigers -145

I'll back the Tigers playing with double revenge this afternoon behind starting pitcher Edwin Jackson, who boasts a nearly unhittable 1.89 road ERA. On top of that, Jackson is 2-0 lifetime against Houston with an ERA of 3.78 and a WHIP of 1.261 with his team winning all 3 of his career starts against the Astros. If we dig a little bit deeper, we find that he is 8-0 vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season in his career with his team winning by an average score of 6.6 to 2.8 in these spots. And, Detroit 19-4 vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 6.7 to 4.3 in these games.
I'll back the Tigers in this bounce back spot behind one of the lowest ERA guys in baseball.

1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -145

 

[Yanks]

Wunderdog

Bonus Play

Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates:

Pittsburgh Pirates +1½-120

Zack Greinke started the season on fire, posting eight wins in his first ten starts and putting up a ridiculous 0.84 ERA over that span. Then something happened which we see often in sports - regression to the mean. Greinke is good but not that good, and over his next four games he went 0-2 with a 5.19 ERA. He pitched well last outing but the fact remains, he's still overrated. The Royals are 2-5 in their last seven games averaging just 3.0 runs per game. They are averaging 3.4 runs per game on the road on the season. They are 13-31 since early May - the worst record in the American League by far. They do not deserve to be laying this kind of wood on the road. Especially against a Pittsburgh team that scores nearly five runs per game at home and has posted a 21-13 mark here (22-12 against the run line). The Pirates are 5-1 in their last six, putting up 5.6 runs per game in the process. While the Pirates can win this, Greinke has been good. But to ask the Royals to put up enough runs to win on the road by 2+ runs is really asking a lot. KC is 16-25 on the road against the run line the past two seasons after 4+ straight road games. They are 4-11 this season after three straight losses. Even with Greinke on the mound, the Royals are just 3-11 against the run line on the road the past two seasons when coming off a loss.
The Pirates are 10-1 vs. the run line at home in June and I look for that to go t 11-1 today.

Pittsburgh Pirates +1½-120

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Sunday
Red Sox/Atlanta under 9 -125

 

[Yanks]

Seabass

Bonus Play

NY Yankees

Going for 5 Free winners in a row! (since yesterdays play was a push)

 

[mark3]

mj is that teddy covers?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jr Tips

Bonus Play

PADRES vs. RANGERS

The Texas Rangers (40-33) lost 7-3 to San Diego on Saturday to see its three-game winning streak end and San Diego (32-41) ended its three-game slide with a season-high 16-hits.Texas will start Tommy Hunter (0-0, 5.06 ERA), who will be recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma City to make his second start of the year. Hunter, a 22-year-old right-hander, is 3-2 with a 3.83 ERA for Oklahoma City this season but he was 0-2 with a 16.36 ERA last season with 3 Big League starts. San Diego's Chad Gaudin (3-6, 5.60) will try to win consecutive starts for the first time since he won three straight with Oakland from April 18-28, 2008. The right-hander ended a personal three-game losing streak Tuesday by allowing two runs over seven innings in a 9-7 win at Seattle although Gaudin is 2-4 with a 6.18 ERA in seven career starts against the Rangers, including 0-2 with an 8.59 ERA in three outings at Arlington. Both teams will be starting two bad pitchers on the mound tonight. San Diego's starter is getting spot duty coming from Triple A means and have never had success in the Bigs. You'll see early bullpen activity and a lot of runs for both teams tonight.

TAKE OVER 11 RUNS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Craig Davis

Bonus Play

Today's Bonus Play winner is on the Atlanta Braves (with Hanson) over Boston. After losing a couple of one-run games to the Red Sox, Atlanta has to be sick and tired of dropping these close games because it just doesn't seem that they can get their bats going. Against Brad Penny, it's probably the best forumal for allowing that to happen. Penny is not the pitcher he once was in Florida or Los Angeles and although he hasn't been horrible, he's obviously not the pitcher he once was... at least not yet. For Atlanta, you gotta like what this kid Tommy Hanson has been doing lately. There was a lot of buzz about him coming into the season and he's apparently living up to the hype. Hanson's season ERA is only 3.13, but over his last three starts it's a miniscule 1.06, with wins over the Yankees, Baltimore and Cincinnati (two of those on the road). He's only started four games this season, and after a rough outing in Game 1, he's settled down and dominated. Watch him today as he dominates yet another opponent from the AL East.

3? ATLANTA

 

[golfguru]

I know must on here do not like VR but the record of plays posted on here since June 1st is 57-38 +1370 for a 100 player. I am not a shill or nothing else, just stating a fact for everyone. GLTA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Michael Cannon

Bonus Play

Boston -105 at ATLANTA

Take the Red Sox for the road win over the Braves.

Brad Penny gets the nod for Boston and he’s settling down after a rocky start to the season. The right-hander is 6-2 with a 4.93 ERA, including 1-0 with a 1.62 ERA in his last three starts.

The Braves will counter with rookie Tommy Hanson, who is off to a great start through his first four games. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 3.13 ERA.
But the one thing I don’t like about his performance so far is his high walk total. Hanson has issued 15 walks in his 23 innings, to go along with 22 hits, and he’s not going to get past this Boston lineup putting that many runners on base.

The Red Sox are patient at the plate and will force Hanson to run up a high pitch count today.

Take Boston as they grab the road win.

3* BOSTON

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Bonus Play

ARI (-130) vs ANA

Los Angeles (40-32) is averaging 6.2 runs and batting .298 against the NL, and it improved on both numbers with an 11-3 win over Colorado on Wednesday and a 12-3 victory over Arizona in the series opener Friday night, however I expect it to stumble this evening! Justin Upton will try to get back on track in support of Arizona starter Max Scherzer (5-4, 3.53 ERA). The right-hander has won three straight starts and posted a 1.46 ERA in four outings since he was tagged for a career-high eight runs in 3 2-3 innings of a loss to Atlanta on May 31. Look for the Angels to fall to a sub par 4-9 (-4.4 units) as a road dog of +100 to +135.

Play on ARIZONA!