Sunday 06/28/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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IndianCowboy

Sunday's Comp Selection

5 of 8 of comp winners. Take Under 9 Boston Redsox @ Atlanta Braves (Sunday @ 4:10pm). It saddens me that my Braves are 34-40 this year. With the injuries to our starting rotation, we could certainly be better than what we are now. Having said that, we have been saying that quite some time here in the south and nothing has really changed as we have been a mediocre team for several years. Either way, it does excite me as a Braves fan to see Tommy Hanson come into his own this season. Hopefully, next year with him, Hudson and Lowe, it will be renewal of the 90's dynamic trio that we had. After all, despite a lax year, the Braves pitching staff are 5th in the league in quality starts and strikeouts. As per Tommy, the Oklahoma native is 3-0 over his last 3 starts and has given up just 2 runs in his last 16 innings - including defeating the Yankees at home and the Reds and Baltimore on the road. Penny has been pitching well for the Sox and I can't even begin to tell you how many Unders I have hit with Penny this season - actually, I can - 4 unders. Penny has not had a terrible start in his last 10 contests to be frank. He is 6-3-1 to the Under over his last 0 and given that there have been a total of six runs scored in the first two games, I expect a strong performance from both pitchers once again. In fact, I expect the Braves to win to avoid the sweep, but more importantly, I expect an under here. The Under is 5-1 for the Redsox when they are road underdogs and the Under is 6-1 for the Braves as a home favorite of late.
 
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Dave Price

Bonus Play for June 28, 2009

Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates:

Pittsburgh Pirates +137

I'll back the Bucs at a nice price at home this afternoon. The Pirates have won 4 in a row while the Royals have dropped 3 in a row and 8 of their last 10. The Royals send ace Zack Greinke to the hill to stop their skid, but they are just 1-4 in his last 5 starts, 1-5 in his last 6 starts during game 3 of a series, and 3-8 in his last 11 Sunday starts. The Royals are just 12-22 on the road this season and only 6-14 in their last 20 games as a favorite. The Pirates are an impressive 7-0 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 7-2 in their last 9 games as a home underdog.
Bet the Bucs showing solid value in the home dog role today.

1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates +137
 
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Dominic Fazzini Bonus Play

The Phillies came through in a big way Saturday in my complimentary selection, beating the Blue Jays 10-0 behind the pitching of J.A. Happ and the power of Jayson Werth. I'm not promising another 10-run victory, but here's a winner for today.

Indians rookie David Huff (3-2, 5.71 ERA) is coming off the best of his eight major league starts, when he allowed four hits in eight scoreless innings Tuesday to beat the Pirates.

The left-hander has gotten progressively better since giving up seven runs in 3 2/3 innings at Tampa Bay in his big-league debut on May 17. Huff is taking the mound today against the Reds, who touched him up for six runs in three innings in his second major league start, on May 23.

Huff is a different pitcher since then, however, going 3-0 with a 3.20 ERA over his last four starts.

He will be opposed by Cincinnati right-hander Micah Owings, who might be a better hitter (.305 career average) than pitcher. Unfortunately for the Reds, today’s game is in Cleveland, meaning Owings (4-8, 4.87) won’t get the chance to bat.

Owings was battered by the Blue Jays in his last start, allowing six runs on nine hits, including three homers, in 5 2/3 innings. He has never faced Cleveland.

A win would give the Indians their first series victory against the Reds since May 2007. While Cincinnati has won 10 of the last 14 games against Cleveland, I don’t see it happening today. Go with the Indians.

2? CLEVELAND
 

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COVERS 'experts' last 10 picks:

Nover 9-1 !!!
Burns 6-4
Prez 8-2 !!!
Rickenbach 6-4
Ness 6-4
Docs 3-6-1
Teddy C 2-8
Malinsky 7-2-1 !!!
 
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Sports Gambling Hotline, Featured Handicapper
We are on a 15-9 comp play run the last 24 days.

Tonight we like the Yankees to sweep their in-city rival Mets at CitiField.

Things have taken a turn for the better for the team from the Bronx, as they have reeled off 4 straight wins, and over the first 2 games in this interleague series they have outscored the Mets 14-1.

The Mets are just too banged up right now to seriously think they can avoid the broom from the Yankees who have won 4 of the 5 games contested between the clubs this year, and are also 4-1 the last 5 games played on Mets turf.

Chien-Ming Wang made just one bad pitch in his last start, as he absorbed yet another loss to drop to 0-6 for the year. We just cannot believe that the former 19-game winner is going to lose another start this evening, as the law of averages has got to catch up with him sometime doesn't it?

As for the Mets, Livan Hernandez has allowed 18 runs over his last 15 innings of work against the Yankees. We think it is clear the Bronx Bombers know how to hit this guy, and we think they will hit him once again today.

Lay the road wood with the Yankees to complete the sweep.
5♦ NY YANKEES
 
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Bobby Maxwell Bonus Play
Today's FREE winner comes from the desert as we play the hottest team in interleague play, the Angels, to get the job done in Arizona against the D'Backs.

The best interleague team this season has been the Angels. They've gone 13-4 against the National League and they will make it 14-4 after today. We're playing Los Angeles to get the job done in Arizona and finish this sweep in the desert.

Friday the Angels crushed the D'Backs 12-3 and then on Saturday they did it with pitching and timely hitting as Mike Napoli hit a one-out, ninth-inning pitch over the center field wall to give the Angels a 2-1 lead and eventual victory.

The Angels average 6-2 runs and are hitting .298 as a team against National League pitching. On the opposite side, the D'Backs have lost seven of eight overall and they are 5-9 against the American League.

Matt Palmer (6-1, 4.70 ERA) is on the hill for Los Angeles as he tries to rebound from his first loss on Monday when he allowed six runs in 4.2 innings of a 11-1 loss in Colorado. Palmer is a 30-year-old rookie, so a loss like that shouldn't bother him.

On the opposite side is the D'Backs' Max Scherzer (5-4, 3.53 ERA) he has won three straight starts, but remember, it took this guy more than a year just to get his first career win. he threw 119 pitches against the Rangers on Tuesday and admitted to the press his arm was tired.

Look for the Angels to continue their domination and get to Scherzer early. Play Los Angeles in this one.
4? L.A. ANGELS
 
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Karl Garrett Bonus Play
G-Man on a 128-103-4 overall comp play run dating back to the winter.

For Sunday night, look for the bats to be boppin' as the Yankees and Mets conclude another round of interleague play. The G-Man expects tonight's contest to see plenty of hits, and plenty of runs, as we head OVER the posted total.

The Mets have been held to just 1 run through the first 2 games of this 3-game set, but it seems likely they will be able to plate a few runs tonight, as Yankee starter Chien-Ming Wang does own an ERA of over 14 still!

On the flip side, the Yankees have proved they can hit Livan Hernandez, as his last 3 starts against them have seen 18 runs score in just 15 innings of work.

The Yankees have scored 33 runs during their current 4-game winning streak, making the OVER the definite play tonight at CitiField.
3? OVER
 
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John Ryan

Bonus Play

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays:

Philadelphia Phillies +125


Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia as they face Toronto slated to start at 1:05 EST. Phils bounced back with a convincing thrashing of the Blue Jays winning 10-0 and that positive performance will carry over to this game as well. Note that the Phils are 8-1 (+8.1 Units) against the money line in road games versus an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. Jamie Moyer is a solid 17-8 (+12.1 Units) against the money line versus teams outscoring opposition by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is just 9-16 (-12.0 Units) against the money line versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits/start over the last 2 seasons. Philadelphia has just gone through a tough slump, which all playoff and Championship teams endure at least once in a 162 game season. They are still scoring 5.8 runs in road games and the bullpen sports a solid 3.52 ERA in road games. Moyer is also coming off a solid start at Tamp Bay winning 10-1 where he went 6 innings allowed 1 ER on just 5 hits.

Take Philadelphia.
 
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Ben Burns

Today’s Free Pick

Minnesota Twins @ St. Louis Cardinals Jun 28, 2009 2:15PM

PICK: Over

REASON FOR PICK: The total in yesterday's game was a '9' and the score was 5-3 after just three innings. The teams didn't score a single run after that though, making for a tough loss for those who wagered on the 'over.' Yesterday's result should work in our favor as the teams combined to use nearly 12 innings from their bullpens - neither starting pitcher lasted past the third inning.

Joel Pineiro gets the start for the Cardinals and he's 2-5 with a 4.34 ERA and a .307 BAA in his career against the Twins. While it's been a couple of years now, naturally, Minnesota became quite familiar with him during all his years in the American League with the Mariners.

Pineiro has solid stats this season and was admittedly very sharp last time out, as he tossed a complete game shutout. However, he'd previously had lost eight of his last nine starts and he hasn't been nearly as good when pitching during the afternoon. Pineiro is just 1-3 in day games with a 4.50 ERA. Opponents have hit .330 against him in those games.

Francisco Liriano gets the start for the Twins and he's just 3-8 this season with a 5.88 ERA. He's 2-4 on the road with an even worse 6.32 ERA. Liriano did win his last start but he previously had lost four straight. In his career, Liriano has been strong at home but has struggled on the road. He has a 4.76 ERA on the road in his career. Liriano is also just 6-6 in day games with a 4.34 ERA in his career. Each of his last three starts finished above the number.

The Twins have scored five runs or more in nine of their last 17 games. During that stretch, they've averaged 4.6 runs per game. The Cardinals have averaged 5.1 runs per game in their last 17 games. For the season, they've averaged 4.9 runs when playing during the afternoon.

With the o/u line at 8.5, I feel that the 'over' is worthy of consideration.
 
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Alex Smart

Today’s Free Pick

Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians Jun 28, 2009 1:05PM

PICK: Cleveland Indians

REASON FOR PICK: David Huff the Tribes southpaw starting pitcher this afternoon against the visiting Cincinnati Reds has gotten better with each successive trip he had made to the hill in eight big-league starts, which recently culminated in eight scoreless innings of work in his last start for a win. Huff is now 3-0 along with a very stable 3.20 ERA in his last four starts.

I know the Tribe are not looking like viable bets for an AL playoff appearance this season, but the day after management showed their displeasure with the teams performance, by trading one their top offensive producers, Mark DeRosa . I expect a a wake up outing will be on the Indians agenda. With Huff in top form, and the Reds proving to inconsistent commodities, it will be easy decision to back the Indians of Ohio.

Final notes & Key Trends: The Reds are 7-25 L/32 against an AL starting pitcher like Huff with a WHIP of between 1.400 to 1.500 .Home team is 8-0 in umpire Andy Fletchers last 8 games behind home plate vs. Cleveland .

Play on the Indians
 
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Lady luck:

Sunday's best WNBA bets
By COVERS

Sacramento Monarchs at Detroit Shock (-5.5, 143)

This season could not have started much worse for the defending champion Detroit Shock. However, they have reason to believe it can get turned around.

After completing a season-opening suspension, center Kara Braxton is expected to make her 2009 debut Sunday when the Shock host the only team with a record worse than theirs - the Sacramento Monarchs.

Detroit (1-5) won its third WNBA title in a six-year span in 2008, but finds itself in an unfamiliar position - at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. The Shock have lost four in a row, the last three coming after Rick Mahorn took over as coach when Bill Laimbeer resigned to pursue an NBA job.

Making matters worse, Detroit announced Wednesday that top bench player Plenette Pierson will miss the rest of the season following shoulder surgery. She was the WNBA's Sixth Woman of the Year in 2007 and averaged career bests of 11.9 points and 1.2 blocks last season.

While Pierson's injury weakens Detroit's frontcourt, the team hopes to fill that void with Braxton's return.

One day before the Shock's season-opening 78-58 defeat to Los Angeles, the WNBA suspended Braxton for six games after she pleaded guilty to a drunk-driving charge during the offseason.

The 6-foot-6 center, an All-Star in 2007, was instrumental to Detroit's title run last season, averaging a career-high 8.9 points and 5.1 rebounds.

A year after winning seven of its first eight games en route to a third consecutive conference title, Detroit is off to its worst start since opening 2002 with 13 consecutive losses.

The Shock are coming off a 96-86 loss at Atlanta. Rookie Shavonte Zellous scored a career-high 25 points for Detroit, which shot 31.1 percent from the field and was outscored 34-18 in the paint.

Pick: Sacramento +5.5

Seattle Storm at Los Angeles Sparks (+2, 137)

The Los Angeles Sparks had no answer for stopping Storm power forward Lauren Jackson in Seattle on Friday. They don't have much time to figure out a way to contain the league's scoring leader.

Jackson looks to build on her best game of the season and lead the Storm to their fourth straight victory Sunday at Staples Center when they wrap up a home-and-home series with the Sparks.

Jackson led Seattle (6-2) to a 69-67 home win over the Sparks on Friday with a season-high 32 points and eight rebounds. The two-time league MVP made 12 of 15 shots - including 3 of 4 from beyond the arc - for Seattle, which lost to Los Angeles (2-5) in three games in last season's Western Conference semifinals.

"I have a supportive team and my teammates are definitely helping me," said Jackson, who is averaging 24.5 points and shooting 60.0 percent (21 of 35) from 3-point range. "I have great people around me. They can't just stop one player."

Jackson has scored at least 20 in each of the first eight games of the season. If she does it again Sunday, she'll match Cynthia Cooper's WNBA record of nine consecutive 20-point games to open a season, set in 1999.

"I haven't been here for but a year in a half, but from what I remember coaching her, I don't know if she's played any better than she's playing right now," Seattle coach Brian Agler said of Jackson.

Pick: Seattle -2
 

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The Sports Investing Professional


For Sunday, just one play on the board. I looked and ran numbers
and considered Washington for the first 5 innings but in the end
I think there is only one play worth the investment. NYY / NYM
OVER 10. I also considered the Mets for a variety of reasons
even beyond the fact that Wang is like a batting practice machine.
If you have a 10+ ERA you should have to take the mound in a
clown suit.....big red nose and all. The problem with the Mets is
that Hernandez is a gas can in his own right and you can't even
trust him to keep the Yanks in single digits. So instead of throwing
a dart at the side lets just watch the fireworks and know there is
a pretty good shot that one of these two gets completely torched.

MLB - NY Yankees / NY Mets OVER 10[LISTED]: Wang / Hernandez] 550 / 500
 
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Jim Feist

(977) LOS ANGELES ANGELS
(978) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Take "(978) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS"

Matt Palmer has been a winner for the Halos all season. The young righthander is 6-1 in 11 starts with a 4.70 era. He has pitched in some tough times of late, going 1-1 his last three starts with a 6.35 era, walking 10 and striking out just 13. Max Scherzer gets the start for the D'backs. Scherzer has been hot, going 3-0 his last three starts with a very nifty 1.83 era. In fact, Scherzer has a nice overall era of 3.53, though he's just 5-4 in 14 games. Scherzer also has a very nice strikeout ratio with just 32 walks in 79 innings compared to 81 strike outs. Palmer has a better record based on playing for a better overall team, but make no mistake, Scherzer is the better of the pitchers here.
 
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Tom Freese comp

Colorado Rockies at Oakland Athletics
Sunday, June 28th, 4:05 PM ET

Oakland is 20-7 their last 27 Interleague games vs. lefty starters and they are 66-31 their last 97 Interleague home games. The Athletics are 8-3 their last 11 games as home favorites. Starter Trevor Cahill has allowed 3 runs or less in his last 7 starts. Colorado 23-55 their last 78 Interleague games on the road and they are 15-46 their last 61 Interleague road games vs. righty starters. The Rockies are 1-8 their last 9 Interleague games vs. losing teams.

Play on: Oakland
 
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Vegas Experts Tip Of The Day

Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles
Sunday, June 28th, 1:35 ET


Baltimore is a well documented 7-29 in Sunday games over the last two seasons, but it also appears as if they are due for a pitching letdown as the team has a 2-15 record when allowing three runs or less in consecutive games. John Lannan (2.61 ERA L3 starts) is the one arm that consistently gives Washington a chance, so we'll look for him to win for a second consecutive year at Camden Yards.

Play on: Washington
 

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