Hot streak
Ive been posting him here since he was 2-0 now he is 27-10, with 3-0 last night do with this as you will...GLd1g1t
Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 2008 7:07PM
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
Your pick will be graded at: -157 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 3* TORONTO over CINCINNATI
The Toronto Blue Jays lost Roy Halladay’s last home start. That is news. What it brings us tonight is arguably the best pitcher in the sport working with a determined focus, and a rejuvenated team behind him. And that means an excellent opportunity to step in.
Toronto is an amazing 42-11 in Halladay’s last 53 home starts. Only once in that entire span did the Blue Jays lose consecutive home starts by their ace. And in the 10 starts at home after losing the previous outing through this stretch, Halladay worked to a sizzling 1.64 over 76.2 innings. That is correct - he averaged nearly eight innings per start in those games. But that is not out of the ordinary for him, and while his 2.90 ERA over 114.2 innings has been eclipsed by a few other performers this season, note that he has been even better than that number indicates - of the 126 pitchers that have worked at last 60 innings so far, his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #9. He also can be dominating against teams that lack experience against him and the Reds have precious little of that - no member of last night’s starting lineup has more than three career at-bats vs. the Toronto right-hander.
Making this path easier is the new feeling around the Blue Jay clubhouse, with an under-achieving offense finding its groove again the last two days, and with last night’s return of Cito Gaston to Toronto providing a special spark - they banged out a season-high of 22 hits, with every position producing at least one run or rbi, and six different players had at least one extra-base hit. That adrenaline can easily carry over against the struggling Aaron Harang, who has worked to an ugly 1-6/4.88 tune on the road this season, and has lost his confidence in a dismal current slump.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Cincinnati Reds
Toronto Blue Jays OFF
OFF
7.5
-169 -120
7.5
-166 -115
Philadelphia Phillies at Oakland Athletics Jun 25 2008 10:05PM
PICK: Oakland Athletics
Your pick will be graded at: -119 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 4* OAKLAND over PHILADELPHIA
Yesterday we took advantage of a bad read by the betting markets, who made a major move behind a slumping Philadelphia team to the point at which the Phillies were actually favored on this field at first pitch. Now the value is outstanding to step in once again.
No team in the Major’s is on a longer slide than the current 0-6 Philadelphia run, and it has not been a case of bad bounces - they have been out-scored by 20 runs in that span. It has been a case of both the offense (keyed by Chase Utley’s dismal 1-29 slide) and the pitching both breaking down, and it does not get any easier for them in their first look at Greg Smith. Smith brings us excellent value because his 3.51 has only been able to produce a 4-5 personal W/L tag (note that the A’s are 8-6 in all of his starts), and also note that he has performed to the same pattern that we see often from young left-handers - opponents have had a difficult time reading him on the first look. It has been a solid 2.84 so far this season against teams that had never faced him before. And with arguably the deepest bullpen in the Major’s behind him, by the time that the Phillies get comfortable in the box against his stuff it will already have been mission accomplished.
The flip side of that value equation is Kyle Kendrick. he sports a 6-3 record despite a 5.06 allowance, which means that he has been far more lucky than good. And this can be his own personal nightmare of a matchup. Kendrick sports one of the biggest left/right bias counts of any pitchers in the game through his young career, with left-handers rapping him to a .328 count, vs. .244 for right-handers. Not only can Oakland load up from that side, but the A’s will bring that unique patience to the batters box to create even more frustrations - last night they coaxed 108 pitches out of the precise Jamie Moyer in 6.2 innings, and ultimately he wore down. Having fought their way through against a crafty left-hander, that offense now gets to face the ideal batting practice guy for their swings.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Philadelphia Phillies
Oakland Athletics OFF
OFF
8.5
-119 -120
8.5
-120 -120
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Jun 25 2008 8:05PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 9.5 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 4* TEXAS/HOUSTON Under
It should not be any surprise that we are getting behind Roy Oswalt and Scott Feldman here, a pair of performers that bring much more to the table than the marketplace realizes. And with some key offensive injuries clouding the picture, it is even easier to pull the trigger.
Two weeks ago we wrote an “Ace Report” column on Oswalt, which focused on how a bullpen session had turned his game around. We lost a difficult 6* Under ticket against him against the Yankees when a bobble by Miguel Tejada turned into eight runs, but were able to come right back with a 5* Under on him at Tampa Bay in his last outing. Now he brings that momentum to his home mound with a bit of a chip on his shoulder, and we absolutely get the best of it in terms of value - when a guy has gone 29-7/2.40 in this ballpark in the three seasons heading into 2008, his current 5.48 ERA is absolutely headed for a correction. And the fact that he lost to the Rangers in Arlington earlier creates even more spark. But Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley were major factors in that game, and their absence severely hampers the Texas attack here.
Meanwhile has anyone pitched better without any notice at all than Scott Feldman? He shows up with just a single win beside his name this season, but has worked at least six full innings in eight of his nine starts, while going five in the other. He has worked to a solid 4.31 tune in that span despite being in a hitter’s park for five of the outings, and he shows the stuff to be able to compete here. Instead of the Arlington heat it is the air conditioning of Minute Maid Park, where these two teams were sitting at 2-1 into the bottom of the 8th inning last night, despite each having a weaker starter on the mound.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros OFF
OFF
9
-158 100
9
-157 -115
Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals Jun 25 2008 7:10PM
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
Your pick will be graded at: -153 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 3* ANGELS over WASHINGTON
In the current edition of “Thinking Outside the Box”, we deal with Tim Redding’s rather remarkable season to-date, and here we have an outstanding opportunity to step in. We not only get the much better team, starting pitcher, and bullpen at a fair price, but also great timing as well.
Redding has been a a slightly above average pitcher this season, with a 4.12 ERA against a difficult schedule. But despite pitching for arguably the worst offense in the game, he has managed to pitch the Nationals to a 13-3 record in his 16 starts. In all other games they are 17-46. What are the odds of a 17-46 team going 13-3 behind a guy working to a 4.12 tune? Rather astronomical. And in the current run its has stretched the laws of baseball and logic even more - Redding has worked at a 5.71 clip over his last six starts, yet Washington won every game. What all that does is buy us about a quarter in terms of where this line really should be.
The Angels provide us with the ideal opponent to take advantage. Their 26-12 road tally is by far the best in the Major’s, and what we saw from Ervin Santana in his last outing at Philadelphia was exactly what we needed to see. Off of a stretch in which he had lost his way a bit, facing a tough offense in a hitter’s park could have been a nightmare for him. His major problem through his career has been giving up home runs on the road, and the Phillies are #2 at hitting balls into the seats. But Santana stifled them without an earned run over seven innings, with a dominating ratio of nine strikeouts vs. only two hits allowed. It also creates something most unexpected - this deep into the season, his road ERA is actually lower than his numbers from Anaheim. That means a great deal of confidence against a lineup that he can dominate, and with yesterday’s easy win bringing the entire bullpen in rested and ready the Nationals are hard-pressed to produce anything at all here.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Los Angeles Angels
Washington Nationals OFF
OFF
-155
8
-120 -152
8
-115
Orioles (RL) at Cubs (RL) Jun 25 2008 8:05PM
PICK: Cubs (RL)
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 6* CHICAGO Run Line over BALTIMORE
There have not been many disappointing days for the Cubs at Wrigley this season - a 32-9 run pretty much sums it up. But Tuesday was such a game. They produced more base-runners than the Orioles, and had the only two home runs in the game. But what had been a solid defense hiccuped and allowed three unearned runs, and they failed to score despite having the bases loaded with no outs in the bottom of the 9th. That is the kind of win that not only stings, but also creates a bounce-back spark, and we believe that pieces are in place for that to happen in a major way. So on a warm evening with the wind in a favorable direction, we will call for the blowout here.
Asking for the Cubs to get a margin in general is not asking much - 24 of those 32 Wrigley wins have come by two runs or more. And of those they did not break open, several were played under colder temperatures with the wind blowing in. Now an offense that has tattooed left-handers this season gets to face the pedestrian offerings of Brian Burres, and Burres is in the wrong place at the wrong time in this setting. First we get value from his 6-5 personal record this season, but that carries no meaning. He has worked to an ugly 5.24 in compiling that mark, and his last two outings are a good example of the kind of luck that he has had - he lasted only 11.2 innings, allowing nine runs on 15 hits, including three home runs, and five walks. Yet he walked way with a ‘W’ each time. And over his last five starts it has been a hideous 10.27 ERA and 2.15 WHIP, with nine home runs allowed over 23.2 innings. Yet he actually got tagged with only one defeat in that span. He does not have the stuff to get the ball past quality hitters, with only 39 strikeouts in 80.2 innings, and in five of his last six starts has had more fly-ball outs than ground-outs. He is an awful matchup for this particular environment, and with the best arms from the Baltimore bullpen getting pushed to extremes last night (33 pitches for Jim Johnson and 30 for George Sherrill), the latter innings have a chance to be just as ugly.
The flip side of the value equation is Ted Lilly’s 7-5/4.71 in the pitching forms, which makes him look rather average. Those numbers do not tell the true story of his current stuff. He indeed got off to a bad start this season, but it has been a 7-2/3.53 over his last 11 starts, with a dominating ratio of 69 strikeouts vs. only 57 hits allowed in that span. The Cubs have won his last six Wrigley starts by a combined 19 runs, and the bullpen is also well-positioned behind him to handle the end-game. But we expect those bullpen innings to merely be mop-up, as they protect what should be a big lead.
Ive been posting him here since he was 2-0 now he is 27-10, with 3-0 last night do with this as you will...GLd1g1t
Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 2008 7:07PM
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
Your pick will be graded at: -157 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 3* TORONTO over CINCINNATI
The Toronto Blue Jays lost Roy Halladay’s last home start. That is news. What it brings us tonight is arguably the best pitcher in the sport working with a determined focus, and a rejuvenated team behind him. And that means an excellent opportunity to step in.
Toronto is an amazing 42-11 in Halladay’s last 53 home starts. Only once in that entire span did the Blue Jays lose consecutive home starts by their ace. And in the 10 starts at home after losing the previous outing through this stretch, Halladay worked to a sizzling 1.64 over 76.2 innings. That is correct - he averaged nearly eight innings per start in those games. But that is not out of the ordinary for him, and while his 2.90 ERA over 114.2 innings has been eclipsed by a few other performers this season, note that he has been even better than that number indicates - of the 126 pitchers that have worked at last 60 innings so far, his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #9. He also can be dominating against teams that lack experience against him and the Reds have precious little of that - no member of last night’s starting lineup has more than three career at-bats vs. the Toronto right-hander.
Making this path easier is the new feeling around the Blue Jay clubhouse, with an under-achieving offense finding its groove again the last two days, and with last night’s return of Cito Gaston to Toronto providing a special spark - they banged out a season-high of 22 hits, with every position producing at least one run or rbi, and six different players had at least one extra-base hit. That adrenaline can easily carry over against the struggling Aaron Harang, who has worked to an ugly 1-6/4.88 tune on the road this season, and has lost his confidence in a dismal current slump.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Cincinnati Reds
Toronto Blue Jays OFF
OFF
7.5
-169 -120
7.5
-166 -115
Philadelphia Phillies at Oakland Athletics Jun 25 2008 10:05PM
PICK: Oakland Athletics
Your pick will be graded at: -119 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 4* OAKLAND over PHILADELPHIA
Yesterday we took advantage of a bad read by the betting markets, who made a major move behind a slumping Philadelphia team to the point at which the Phillies were actually favored on this field at first pitch. Now the value is outstanding to step in once again.
No team in the Major’s is on a longer slide than the current 0-6 Philadelphia run, and it has not been a case of bad bounces - they have been out-scored by 20 runs in that span. It has been a case of both the offense (keyed by Chase Utley’s dismal 1-29 slide) and the pitching both breaking down, and it does not get any easier for them in their first look at Greg Smith. Smith brings us excellent value because his 3.51 has only been able to produce a 4-5 personal W/L tag (note that the A’s are 8-6 in all of his starts), and also note that he has performed to the same pattern that we see often from young left-handers - opponents have had a difficult time reading him on the first look. It has been a solid 2.84 so far this season against teams that had never faced him before. And with arguably the deepest bullpen in the Major’s behind him, by the time that the Phillies get comfortable in the box against his stuff it will already have been mission accomplished.
The flip side of that value equation is Kyle Kendrick. he sports a 6-3 record despite a 5.06 allowance, which means that he has been far more lucky than good. And this can be his own personal nightmare of a matchup. Kendrick sports one of the biggest left/right bias counts of any pitchers in the game through his young career, with left-handers rapping him to a .328 count, vs. .244 for right-handers. Not only can Oakland load up from that side, but the A’s will bring that unique patience to the batters box to create even more frustrations - last night they coaxed 108 pitches out of the precise Jamie Moyer in 6.2 innings, and ultimately he wore down. Having fought their way through against a crafty left-hander, that offense now gets to face the ideal batting practice guy for their swings.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Philadelphia Phillies
Oakland Athletics OFF
OFF
8.5
-119 -120
8.5
-120 -120
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Jun 25 2008 8:05PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 9.5 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 4* TEXAS/HOUSTON Under
It should not be any surprise that we are getting behind Roy Oswalt and Scott Feldman here, a pair of performers that bring much more to the table than the marketplace realizes. And with some key offensive injuries clouding the picture, it is even easier to pull the trigger.
Two weeks ago we wrote an “Ace Report” column on Oswalt, which focused on how a bullpen session had turned his game around. We lost a difficult 6* Under ticket against him against the Yankees when a bobble by Miguel Tejada turned into eight runs, but were able to come right back with a 5* Under on him at Tampa Bay in his last outing. Now he brings that momentum to his home mound with a bit of a chip on his shoulder, and we absolutely get the best of it in terms of value - when a guy has gone 29-7/2.40 in this ballpark in the three seasons heading into 2008, his current 5.48 ERA is absolutely headed for a correction. And the fact that he lost to the Rangers in Arlington earlier creates even more spark. But Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley were major factors in that game, and their absence severely hampers the Texas attack here.
Meanwhile has anyone pitched better without any notice at all than Scott Feldman? He shows up with just a single win beside his name this season, but has worked at least six full innings in eight of his nine starts, while going five in the other. He has worked to a solid 4.31 tune in that span despite being in a hitter’s park for five of the outings, and he shows the stuff to be able to compete here. Instead of the Arlington heat it is the air conditioning of Minute Maid Park, where these two teams were sitting at 2-1 into the bottom of the 8th inning last night, despite each having a weaker starter on the mound.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros OFF
OFF
9
-158 100
9
-157 -115
Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals Jun 25 2008 7:10PM
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
Your pick will be graded at: -153 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 3* ANGELS over WASHINGTON
In the current edition of “Thinking Outside the Box”, we deal with Tim Redding’s rather remarkable season to-date, and here we have an outstanding opportunity to step in. We not only get the much better team, starting pitcher, and bullpen at a fair price, but also great timing as well.
Redding has been a a slightly above average pitcher this season, with a 4.12 ERA against a difficult schedule. But despite pitching for arguably the worst offense in the game, he has managed to pitch the Nationals to a 13-3 record in his 16 starts. In all other games they are 17-46. What are the odds of a 17-46 team going 13-3 behind a guy working to a 4.12 tune? Rather astronomical. And in the current run its has stretched the laws of baseball and logic even more - Redding has worked at a 5.71 clip over his last six starts, yet Washington won every game. What all that does is buy us about a quarter in terms of where this line really should be.
The Angels provide us with the ideal opponent to take advantage. Their 26-12 road tally is by far the best in the Major’s, and what we saw from Ervin Santana in his last outing at Philadelphia was exactly what we needed to see. Off of a stretch in which he had lost his way a bit, facing a tough offense in a hitter’s park could have been a nightmare for him. His major problem through his career has been giving up home runs on the road, and the Phillies are #2 at hitting balls into the seats. But Santana stifled them without an earned run over seven innings, with a dominating ratio of nine strikeouts vs. only two hits allowed. It also creates something most unexpected - this deep into the season, his road ERA is actually lower than his numbers from Anaheim. That means a great deal of confidence against a lineup that he can dominate, and with yesterday’s easy win bringing the entire bullpen in rested and ready the Nationals are hard-pressed to produce anything at all here.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Los Angeles Angels
Washington Nationals OFF
OFF
-155
8
-120 -152
8
-115
Orioles (RL) at Cubs (RL) Jun 25 2008 8:05PM
PICK: Cubs (RL)
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 6* CHICAGO Run Line over BALTIMORE
There have not been many disappointing days for the Cubs at Wrigley this season - a 32-9 run pretty much sums it up. But Tuesday was such a game. They produced more base-runners than the Orioles, and had the only two home runs in the game. But what had been a solid defense hiccuped and allowed three unearned runs, and they failed to score despite having the bases loaded with no outs in the bottom of the 9th. That is the kind of win that not only stings, but also creates a bounce-back spark, and we believe that pieces are in place for that to happen in a major way. So on a warm evening with the wind in a favorable direction, we will call for the blowout here.
Asking for the Cubs to get a margin in general is not asking much - 24 of those 32 Wrigley wins have come by two runs or more. And of those they did not break open, several were played under colder temperatures with the wind blowing in. Now an offense that has tattooed left-handers this season gets to face the pedestrian offerings of Brian Burres, and Burres is in the wrong place at the wrong time in this setting. First we get value from his 6-5 personal record this season, but that carries no meaning. He has worked to an ugly 5.24 in compiling that mark, and his last two outings are a good example of the kind of luck that he has had - he lasted only 11.2 innings, allowing nine runs on 15 hits, including three home runs, and five walks. Yet he walked way with a ‘W’ each time. And over his last five starts it has been a hideous 10.27 ERA and 2.15 WHIP, with nine home runs allowed over 23.2 innings. Yet he actually got tagged with only one defeat in that span. He does not have the stuff to get the ball past quality hitters, with only 39 strikeouts in 80.2 innings, and in five of his last six starts has had more fly-ball outs than ground-outs. He is an awful matchup for this particular environment, and with the best arms from the Baltimore bullpen getting pushed to extremes last night (33 pitches for Jim Johnson and 30 for George Sherrill), the latter innings have a chance to be just as ugly.
The flip side of the value equation is Ted Lilly’s 7-5/4.71 in the pitching forms, which makes him look rather average. Those numbers do not tell the true story of his current stuff. He indeed got off to a bad start this season, but it has been a 7-2/3.53 over his last 11 starts, with a dominating ratio of 69 strikeouts vs. only 57 hits allowed in that span. The Cubs have won his last six Wrigley starts by a combined 19 runs, and the bullpen is also well-positioned behind him to handle the end-game. But we expect those bullpen innings to merely be mop-up, as they protect what should be a big lead.
37-21 L58, Yesterday 2-0 (HOU Astros"W",KC Royals"W")
