SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Yankees +119 over Baltimore
The Yanks probably should have won on Monday after blowing a 5-1 lead in Tampa. They came right back with a strong performance yesterday to snap a funk and they have a great shot at keeping it going here. We were going to play against Zach Britton yesterday in Boston but the game was rained out so we’ll be glad to play against him here. Britton has outstanding surface stats (2.42 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) but a lot of it has been pure luck. Britton has been aided by an unsustainable 82% strand rate. He’s only struck out 29 batters in 52 frames, which confirms that the balls are in play but have been hit right at people. There's a nearly two-run gap between his ERA and xERA suggesting some rough times ahead and that’s likely to begin here. The Yanks will get added motivation when they’re browsing on their laptops and see that a rookie is a -130 favorite over them. Bartolo Colon’s last three starts have come against Texas, Detroit and Boston. At age 37, his skills have been not only good, but elite: high strikeout rate (41 k’s, 10 BB in 43 IP) 46% GB%, 130 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups). Colon is throwing harder than he did last season and after facing that aforementioned trio, he’ll welcome facing an O’s team that he threw three scoreless innings against earlier in the year. Play: N.Y. Yankees +119 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +142 over CINCINNATI
Charlie Morton has allowed just 41 hits in 46 innings and comes in with just one loss on the year. He has an ERA of 3.13 and his newfound sinker makes him extremely intriguing, especially since we know that his raw stuff is good. Morton’s elite 62% groundball rate is the best in the league among starters that have thrown 35 innings or more and that’s a key stat when wagering on pitchers in this park. Bronson Arroyo Bronson Arroyo is a legit workhorse. He has thrown 200+ IP in each of the last six seasons and other than his good control, the rest of his skills are unexciting. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is an ugly 37%/20%/42% and those numbers scream to stay away from him at Great American. In fact, Arroyo is 1-3 at home with an ERA of 5.64 and it’s no mystery as to why. The Pirates saw Arroyo in Cincinnati on April 15 and he was pulled after the fourth inning after surrendering nine hits and five runs. It’s also worth noting that Arroyo has walked seven and struck out nine over his last three starts and that’s another reason you should never lay –155 with him at Great American. The Reds have fallen behind by multiple runs in four of their last five games and you simply can’t keep winning that way. Play: Pittsburgh +142 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta –1 +109 over ARIZONA
Julio Teheran has ascended quickly thru the minors - he pitched on three levels in '10 - due mostly to his mature approach and tremendous feel. With a mid-90s fastball (92-96 mph) and a knockout changeup, Teheran has the arsenal to be a top-of-the-rotation starter for many years to come. Teheran has a quick, loose arm with nice deception in his delivery. Because he hides the ball in his delivery, his fastball looks even quicker. He only needs a smidgen more polish before he'll be in the Majors for a long time. He has a career 3.04 ERA and has made one start in the majors this year but it came in Philadelphia, not the easiest place to begin a career. More appealing is the Braves against Joe Saunders. Saunders have walked 24 and struck out 25 and will face a whole slew of seasoned Braves hitters. At Chase Field, Saunders has thrown 21.1 innings and has allowed 34 hits for a BAA of .395. Of those 34 hits, four have gone yard and with his command way down, his fly-ball rate up and nothing else to rely on, Saunders is a stiff with zero upside. The Braves are a small price because they have an unproven rookie going but he’s a much better option than Saunders. Additionally, the Braves bullpen is about as solid as it gets and that, too, gives them a big edge. Play: Atlanta –1 +109 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
N.Y. Yankees +119 over Baltimore
The Yanks probably should have won on Monday after blowing a 5-1 lead in Tampa. They came right back with a strong performance yesterday to snap a funk and they have a great shot at keeping it going here. We were going to play against Zach Britton yesterday in Boston but the game was rained out so we’ll be glad to play against him here. Britton has outstanding surface stats (2.42 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) but a lot of it has been pure luck. Britton has been aided by an unsustainable 82% strand rate. He’s only struck out 29 batters in 52 frames, which confirms that the balls are in play but have been hit right at people. There's a nearly two-run gap between his ERA and xERA suggesting some rough times ahead and that’s likely to begin here. The Yanks will get added motivation when they’re browsing on their laptops and see that a rookie is a -130 favorite over them. Bartolo Colon’s last three starts have come against Texas, Detroit and Boston. At age 37, his skills have been not only good, but elite: high strikeout rate (41 k’s, 10 BB in 43 IP) 46% GB%, 130 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups). Colon is throwing harder than he did last season and after facing that aforementioned trio, he’ll welcome facing an O’s team that he threw three scoreless innings against earlier in the year. Play: N.Y. Yankees +119 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +142 over CINCINNATI
Charlie Morton has allowed just 41 hits in 46 innings and comes in with just one loss on the year. He has an ERA of 3.13 and his newfound sinker makes him extremely intriguing, especially since we know that his raw stuff is good. Morton’s elite 62% groundball rate is the best in the league among starters that have thrown 35 innings or more and that’s a key stat when wagering on pitchers in this park. Bronson Arroyo Bronson Arroyo is a legit workhorse. He has thrown 200+ IP in each of the last six seasons and other than his good control, the rest of his skills are unexciting. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is an ugly 37%/20%/42% and those numbers scream to stay away from him at Great American. In fact, Arroyo is 1-3 at home with an ERA of 5.64 and it’s no mystery as to why. The Pirates saw Arroyo in Cincinnati on April 15 and he was pulled after the fourth inning after surrendering nine hits and five runs. It’s also worth noting that Arroyo has walked seven and struck out nine over his last three starts and that’s another reason you should never lay –155 with him at Great American. The Reds have fallen behind by multiple runs in four of their last five games and you simply can’t keep winning that way. Play: Pittsburgh +142 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta –1 +109 over ARIZONA
Julio Teheran has ascended quickly thru the minors - he pitched on three levels in '10 - due mostly to his mature approach and tremendous feel. With a mid-90s fastball (92-96 mph) and a knockout changeup, Teheran has the arsenal to be a top-of-the-rotation starter for many years to come. Teheran has a quick, loose arm with nice deception in his delivery. Because he hides the ball in his delivery, his fastball looks even quicker. He only needs a smidgen more polish before he'll be in the Majors for a long time. He has a career 3.04 ERA and has made one start in the majors this year but it came in Philadelphia, not the easiest place to begin a career. More appealing is the Braves against Joe Saunders. Saunders have walked 24 and struck out 25 and will face a whole slew of seasoned Braves hitters. At Chase Field, Saunders has thrown 21.1 innings and has allowed 34 hits for a BAA of .395. Of those 34 hits, four have gone yard and with his command way down, his fly-ball rate up and nothing else to rely on, Saunders is a stiff with zero upside. The Braves are a small price because they have an unproven rookie going but he’s a much better option than Saunders. Additionally, the Braves bullpen is about as solid as it gets and that, too, gives them a big edge. Play: Atlanta –1 +109 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
Bob Balfe
Phillies -145 & Phillies/Rockies Over 7
The Phillies have been slumping badly, as they are losers of their last 4. In comes Jorge De La Rosa for the Rockies, who gets absolutely buried when pitching in Philadelphia. Philadelphia is great against left handed pitching and should get a big win tonight. I do not usually play side and totals in the same game, but this is a case in which I think the Phillies put up at least 7 runs themselves. Take the Phillies and the Over.
Phillies -145 & Phillies/Rockies Over 7
The Phillies have been slumping badly, as they are losers of their last 4. In comes Jorge De La Rosa for the Rockies, who gets absolutely buried when pitching in Philadelphia. Philadelphia is great against left handed pitching and should get a big win tonight. I do not usually play side and totals in the same game, but this is a case in which I think the Phillies put up at least 7 runs themselves. Take the Phillies and the Over.
The Duke's Sports
Miami (+2) for 2 Units
We were on Chicago in the first game but will look for the Heat to bounce back here. Miami has shown their mettle to bounce back in big games as exhibited off loss at Boston on the 7th and delivering there on the 9th in OT. We'll look for a similar result here. James and Wade were highly mediocre to what they're usually capable of and we'll look for better output from them tonight. Miami got careless with 16 turnovers in Game 1 and lost control late. Miami needs better board control clearly out worked in Game 1. We'll look for emphasis on blocking out and not allowing second chance opportunities. In addition, much better bench work is needed from Jones and Chalmers two key players in the Heat rotation, Bulls have historically been sluggish off 100+ games at 1-7 ATS and we'll look for the Heat to get it together tonight.
Miami (+2) for 2 Units
We were on Chicago in the first game but will look for the Heat to bounce back here. Miami has shown their mettle to bounce back in big games as exhibited off loss at Boston on the 7th and delivering there on the 9th in OT. We'll look for a similar result here. James and Wade were highly mediocre to what they're usually capable of and we'll look for better output from them tonight. Miami got careless with 16 turnovers in Game 1 and lost control late. Miami needs better board control clearly out worked in Game 1. We'll look for emphasis on blocking out and not allowing second chance opportunities. In addition, much better bench work is needed from Jones and Chalmers two key players in the Heat rotation, Bulls have historically been sluggish off 100+ games at 1-7 ATS and we'll look for the Heat to get it together tonight.
Eric Maguire
Heat at Bulls
Pick: Heat +2
That Game 1 result on Sunday night was a shocker, not for who won the game, but how easily they had their way with the Heat. The rebounding differential was attrocious, but the Heat won't need rebounding with a better offensive game from their standouts LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. Don't think these two are going to go easily in this one. The Heat are going to make this a legendary series because of those two motivated superstars. Take the points. Pick: Miami +2.
Heat at Bulls
Pick: Heat +2
That Game 1 result on Sunday night was a shocker, not for who won the game, but how easily they had their way with the Heat. The rebounding differential was attrocious, but the Heat won't need rebounding with a better offensive game from their standouts LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. Don't think these two are going to go easily in this one. The Heat are going to make this a legendary series because of those two motivated superstars. Take the points. Pick: Miami +2.
The Delawarian's 05/18 TOP PLAYS OF THE DAY
MLB
1* White Sox/Indians UNDER 7.5 (-115)
1* Yankees/Orioles UNDER 8.5 (-115)
1* Angels/Seattle UNDER 6.5 (-125)
1* Arizona +105 vs Atlanta
NBA
4* Bulls -2 vs Miami
3* Bulls/Miami UNDER 182
NHL
1* Vancouver -155 vs San Jose
1* Vancouver/San Jose UNDER 5.5
MLB
1* White Sox/Indians UNDER 7.5 (-115)
1* Yankees/Orioles UNDER 8.5 (-115)
1* Angels/Seattle UNDER 6.5 (-125)
1* Arizona +105 vs Atlanta
NBA
4* Bulls -2 vs Miami
3* Bulls/Miami UNDER 182
NHL
1* Vancouver -155 vs San Jose
1* Vancouver/San Jose UNDER 5.5
