Prediction Machine -
MLB
Moneyline value plays: (listed in order of value strength, but none are more than a weak play)
Tex
Atl
Balt
Det
Wash
Flor
Pitt
SF
Clev
LAA
StL
Phil
TB
O/U plays:
SF @ LAD Over 6 wins 59.8% of the time (normal play)
Runline: (these cover 59.8% of the time or more)
SD
Tor
Det
Wash
Clev
MLB
Moneyline value plays: (listed in order of value strength, but none are more than a weak play)
Tex
Atl
Balt
Det
Wash
Flor
Pitt
SF
Clev
LAA
StL
Phil
TB
O/U plays:
SF @ LAD Over 6 wins 59.8% of the time (normal play)
Runline: (these cover 59.8% of the time or more)
SD
Tor
Det
Wash
Clev
StatSystems Sports NBA Report, Wednesday 5/18/11
*** BULLS LOOK TO GO UP 2-0 IN SERIES VS. HEAT ***
--------------------------------------------------------------------
After 48 minutes of being out-hustled, outworked, out-rebounded, out-defended, and oh yes, out-posterized (Taj Gibson dunk over Dwyane Wade), the Miami Heat will take the court Wednesday night at the United Center desperate to match the Bulls’ intensity level, as well as their defensive venom. While getting a win to even the series will be paramount, that can only start with the Heat playing better basketball, and realizing that the Bulls are light years ahead of previous opponents Philadelphia and Boston when it comes to athleticism and displaying championship-level defense. “We've been able to bounce back this year no matter if it's been the regular season or the postseason," LeBron James said. "Learn from mistakes in the previous game and then move on. We've done that. We're looking forward to the challenge."
Meeting that challenge could be much less about X’s and O’s and much more about hustle and effort, areas where the Heat were lacking Sunday night in Game 1. Chicago was +16 in rebounding, held a 19 to 6 edge on the offensive boards, generated 11 steals to the Heat’s seven thefts, and committed seven fewer turnovers than Miami. Chicago’s bench outscored Miami’s reserves 28-15. Not surprisingly, the Bulls easily turned the extra possessions in extra points, as they outscored Eric Spoelstra’s team 31-8 on second chance points. "It's not about bigger bodies, it's about wanting the ball," Chris Bosh, who had a game-high 30 points, said. "Collectively, as a team, we have to do good job of keeping bodies on those bigs. Containing the screen and roll with D-Rose and just doing our job like we know we are capable of. We've done it all season, we just have to capitalize."
In terms of strategy, Chicago’s defense forced James into a 15-point night on 5-for-15 shooting, as Luol Deng, Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah all chipped in to contain James, who was coming off of consecutive 33 and 35-point efforts in the last two games of the Celtics series. Dwyane Wade didn’t fare much better as he scored 18 points on 7-for-17 shooting, far below the 30.2 PPG he averaged against the Celtics. In terms of plus/minus ratings while on the court, James was a minus-14 and Wade was minus-22.
As for the Bulls offensively, each player fulfilled his role from top to bottom. Derrick Rose led his team with 28 points (10-22 FG) and six assists. Deng provided perimeter support by hitting on 4-of-6 from beyond the arc and finishing with 21 points. Noah led the hustle patrol with 14 boards (eight offensive), four assists, two steals and two blocks -- a stat line so complete that it almost makes his nine points seem insignificant. Carlos Boozer was the third Bull to finish the game in double figures with 14 points. He also had nine boards and had plenty of rest, logging just 26 minutes. Despite the effort, the Bulls are not looking back on their Game 1 laurels, but rather forward on the need to keep the pressure on Miami by improving its performance from game to game. "I think we've got to play better," said Deng, "I really do. We played really well. If you look at the final score, we won by a lot, but it really wasn't that kind of game. It really wasn't. It was tied at the half. They had the lead at some point in the third quarter. So there's a lot of things we've got to get better at."
To win Game 2, the Heat will in all likelihood have to win a close game on the road, something they have not been able to do against Chicago this season, but something they have been able to do in the playoffs, as they took a six-point win at Philadelphia in Game 3 of that series, and an overtime win at Boston in Game 4 of last series. Chicago has the best home record SU (42-6, 88.0%) and second-best ATS home mark (28-19, 60.0%) in the NBA, but Miami has the second-best SU road record (30-16, 65.0%) and a solid 26-19 ATS (58.0%) mark away from home.
The following Stat/Systems Sports Super Situational Systems support the Heat in the Windy City tonight: PLAY AGAINST - Favorites (CHICAGO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.
(51-23 since 1996.) (68.9%, +25.7 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (30-47)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.5
The average score in these games was: Team 92.8, Opponent 95.5 (Average point differential = -2.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 30 (39% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-6).
•PLAY ON - Road teams (MIAMI) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more.
(89-49 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.5%, +35.1 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (84-58 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.4
The average score in these games was: Team 99.4, Opponent 96.1 (Average point differential = +3.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 48 (34.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (8-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (70-38).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (174-139).
Meanwhile, the Under is 10-4 in the past 14 meetings between these teams, but the Over is 6-1 in the past seven Heat games this postseason. Assuming James and Wade find their offensive games, we like the Over (181.5) to occur for Wednesday’s Game 2. This belief is supported by these two Highly-Rated Super Situational Systems: PLAY OVER - Any team (MIAMI) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days.
(69-32 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.3%, +33.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 198.4
The average score in these games was: Team 101.4, Opponent 104.1 (Total points scored = 205.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 56 (55.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (8-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (45-18).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (146-100).
•PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (41.5-43.5%).
(78-38 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.2%, +36.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 185.3
The average score in these games was: Team 96.2, Opponent 96.2 (Total points scored = 192.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 68 (60.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (12-8).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (36-24).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (502-420).
*** BULLS LOOK TO GO UP 2-0 IN SERIES VS. HEAT ***
--------------------------------------------------------------------
After 48 minutes of being out-hustled, outworked, out-rebounded, out-defended, and oh yes, out-posterized (Taj Gibson dunk over Dwyane Wade), the Miami Heat will take the court Wednesday night at the United Center desperate to match the Bulls’ intensity level, as well as their defensive venom. While getting a win to even the series will be paramount, that can only start with the Heat playing better basketball, and realizing that the Bulls are light years ahead of previous opponents Philadelphia and Boston when it comes to athleticism and displaying championship-level defense. “We've been able to bounce back this year no matter if it's been the regular season or the postseason," LeBron James said. "Learn from mistakes in the previous game and then move on. We've done that. We're looking forward to the challenge."
Meeting that challenge could be much less about X’s and O’s and much more about hustle and effort, areas where the Heat were lacking Sunday night in Game 1. Chicago was +16 in rebounding, held a 19 to 6 edge on the offensive boards, generated 11 steals to the Heat’s seven thefts, and committed seven fewer turnovers than Miami. Chicago’s bench outscored Miami’s reserves 28-15. Not surprisingly, the Bulls easily turned the extra possessions in extra points, as they outscored Eric Spoelstra’s team 31-8 on second chance points. "It's not about bigger bodies, it's about wanting the ball," Chris Bosh, who had a game-high 30 points, said. "Collectively, as a team, we have to do good job of keeping bodies on those bigs. Containing the screen and roll with D-Rose and just doing our job like we know we are capable of. We've done it all season, we just have to capitalize."
In terms of strategy, Chicago’s defense forced James into a 15-point night on 5-for-15 shooting, as Luol Deng, Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah all chipped in to contain James, who was coming off of consecutive 33 and 35-point efforts in the last two games of the Celtics series. Dwyane Wade didn’t fare much better as he scored 18 points on 7-for-17 shooting, far below the 30.2 PPG he averaged against the Celtics. In terms of plus/minus ratings while on the court, James was a minus-14 and Wade was minus-22.
As for the Bulls offensively, each player fulfilled his role from top to bottom. Derrick Rose led his team with 28 points (10-22 FG) and six assists. Deng provided perimeter support by hitting on 4-of-6 from beyond the arc and finishing with 21 points. Noah led the hustle patrol with 14 boards (eight offensive), four assists, two steals and two blocks -- a stat line so complete that it almost makes his nine points seem insignificant. Carlos Boozer was the third Bull to finish the game in double figures with 14 points. He also had nine boards and had plenty of rest, logging just 26 minutes. Despite the effort, the Bulls are not looking back on their Game 1 laurels, but rather forward on the need to keep the pressure on Miami by improving its performance from game to game. "I think we've got to play better," said Deng, "I really do. We played really well. If you look at the final score, we won by a lot, but it really wasn't that kind of game. It really wasn't. It was tied at the half. They had the lead at some point in the third quarter. So there's a lot of things we've got to get better at."
To win Game 2, the Heat will in all likelihood have to win a close game on the road, something they have not been able to do against Chicago this season, but something they have been able to do in the playoffs, as they took a six-point win at Philadelphia in Game 3 of that series, and an overtime win at Boston in Game 4 of last series. Chicago has the best home record SU (42-6, 88.0%) and second-best ATS home mark (28-19, 60.0%) in the NBA, but Miami has the second-best SU road record (30-16, 65.0%) and a solid 26-19 ATS (58.0%) mark away from home.
The following Stat/Systems Sports Super Situational Systems support the Heat in the Windy City tonight: PLAY AGAINST - Favorites (CHICAGO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.
(51-23 since 1996.) (68.9%, +25.7 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (30-47)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.5
The average score in these games was: Team 92.8, Opponent 95.5 (Average point differential = -2.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 30 (39% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-6).
•PLAY ON - Road teams (MIAMI) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more.
(89-49 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.5%, +35.1 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (84-58 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.4
The average score in these games was: Team 99.4, Opponent 96.1 (Average point differential = +3.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 48 (34.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (8-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (70-38).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (174-139).
Meanwhile, the Under is 10-4 in the past 14 meetings between these teams, but the Over is 6-1 in the past seven Heat games this postseason. Assuming James and Wade find their offensive games, we like the Over (181.5) to occur for Wednesday’s Game 2. This belief is supported by these two Highly-Rated Super Situational Systems: PLAY OVER - Any team (MIAMI) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days.
(69-32 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.3%, +33.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 198.4
The average score in these games was: Team 101.4, Opponent 104.1 (Total points scored = 205.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 56 (55.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (8-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (45-18).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (146-100).
•PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (41.5-43.5%).
(78-38 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.2%, +36.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 185.3
The average score in these games was: Team 96.2, Opponent 96.2 (Total points scored = 192.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 68 (60.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (12-8).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (36-24).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (502-420).
