DR BOB SPORTS
2 Star Best Bet
**UNDER (181) – Boston at Miami (-7 ½)
04:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 737
I’ll go Under 179 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet. I have no opinion on the side in this game as my ratings favor Miami by 7 ½ points and there are situations favoring both teams.
2 Star Best Bet
**Memphis (+6 ½) over OKLAHOMA CITY
06:35 PM Pacific - Rotation 739
I’ll take Memphis in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.
Opinion
Under (197) – Oklahoma City at MEMPHIS
06:35 PM Pacific - Rotation 739
I’ll lean Under 196 points or higher.
2 Star Best Bet
**UNDER (181) – Boston at Miami (-7 ½)
04:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 737
I’ll go Under 179 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet. I have no opinion on the side in this game as my ratings favor Miami by 7 ½ points and there are situations favoring both teams.
2 Star Best Bet
**Memphis (+6 ½) over OKLAHOMA CITY
06:35 PM Pacific - Rotation 739
I’ll take Memphis in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.
Opinion
Under (197) – Oklahoma City at MEMPHIS
06:35 PM Pacific - Rotation 739
I’ll lean Under 196 points or higher.
If Dom Chambers is the new Craig Davis, Craig Davis has Nats +190. I'd still imagine Dom Chambers has the Braves RL since he's 0-4 (-160 dimes). I'll side with Craig Davis on this one and actually take the Nats, since Lannan is 3-0 vs Braves last 3 starts... (EVEN THOUGH THE NATS ARE TERRIBLE).
The Duke's Sports
Memphis Over (197) for 2 Units
Judging from the extreme competitiveness and favorable matchups in this series, we find a few points value with the "over". These teams can score at will on each other and few games have proven otherwise. In Okla City in this series, the "total" result average over last four meetings has been 211 in a tight range of 206 (OT) to 215. Moreover, this series sports a 16-5 O/U mark over its last 21 in Okla City. We realize the OT marathon on Monday and if it had not gone into OT the game would have stayed "under"; however, OT should be factored in this tightly contested series in which 3 of the last 6 meetings went beyond 4 quarters. And these teams are a combined 14-2-1 O/U on 1 day rest. We're going to look for another tightly contested game and high scoring.
Memphis Over (197) for 2 Units
Judging from the extreme competitiveness and favorable matchups in this series, we find a few points value with the "over". These teams can score at will on each other and few games have proven otherwise. In Okla City in this series, the "total" result average over last four meetings has been 211 in a tight range of 206 (OT) to 215. Moreover, this series sports a 16-5 O/U mark over its last 21 in Okla City. We realize the OT marathon on Monday and if it had not gone into OT the game would have stayed "under"; however, OT should be factored in this tightly contested series in which 3 of the last 6 meetings went beyond 4 quarters. And these teams are a combined 14-2-1 O/U on 1 day rest. We're going to look for another tightly contested game and high scoring.
DAVID MALINSKY
4* PITTSBURGH over L.A. DODGERS
There are few teams as improved defensively as the Pirates this season, sporting some lineup changes that have taken them from dead last on our best charts LY to the current #13. And there is actually a better way to measure that, one that has us getting behind Paul Maholm for this setting.
Maholm fell of to a 9-15/5.10 LY in which both his win percentage and ERA were career highs, and that is what happens for a pitch-to-contact guy with a weak defense behind him. He has turned the allowance around to a 3.68 so far this season, with only one win because he has been in the wrong place at the wrong time in terms of offensive support, getting only 12 runs behind him over seven starts. But what really jumps out at us is the way that he is identifying those defensive improvements – in six of those seven outings he has worked to a PPI count of 14.4 or lower. He is comfortable again in throwing strikes and getting ground balls, instead of feeling that he has to get too many K’s, and because of that he sports a solid ratio of 2.15:1 in ground-ball outs, while his HR’s per 9 are at a career best count. Given his past success from this mound, where he sports a career 31-25/3.83 vs. that 17-38/5.16 on the road, he is going to provide excellent value in this ballpark for much of the summer, and given his lack of sex appeal the marketplace should be slow to catch on. Having worked a full seven IP in each of his last three starts, we begin putting him in our portfolio tonight.
Meanwhile the Dodgers have had a major lineup shuffle since LY, and have taken a bigger defensive drop than any team, from #8 all the way down to #29. And it is not as though they have brought better bats in play to replace the weaker gloves – the current IF of James Loney, Aaron Miles, Jamey Carroll and Juan Uribe brings no punch, with an anemic four HR’s in 489 at-bats; no range, except for Loney at 1B; and there is no chance of Carroll’s .320 average holding up at the age of 37. That makes life tough for Hiroki Kuroda and an unsettled bullpen, and note that Kuroda’s uninspiring 3-3/3.69 comes despite the fact that nearly half of all of his IP (22.2 of 46.2) have come against the Padres and Giants, the two worst offenses in the N.L. so far.
4* PITTSBURGH over L.A. DODGERS
There are few teams as improved defensively as the Pirates this season, sporting some lineup changes that have taken them from dead last on our best charts LY to the current #13. And there is actually a better way to measure that, one that has us getting behind Paul Maholm for this setting.
Maholm fell of to a 9-15/5.10 LY in which both his win percentage and ERA were career highs, and that is what happens for a pitch-to-contact guy with a weak defense behind him. He has turned the allowance around to a 3.68 so far this season, with only one win because he has been in the wrong place at the wrong time in terms of offensive support, getting only 12 runs behind him over seven starts. But what really jumps out at us is the way that he is identifying those defensive improvements – in six of those seven outings he has worked to a PPI count of 14.4 or lower. He is comfortable again in throwing strikes and getting ground balls, instead of feeling that he has to get too many K’s, and because of that he sports a solid ratio of 2.15:1 in ground-ball outs, while his HR’s per 9 are at a career best count. Given his past success from this mound, where he sports a career 31-25/3.83 vs. that 17-38/5.16 on the road, he is going to provide excellent value in this ballpark for much of the summer, and given his lack of sex appeal the marketplace should be slow to catch on. Having worked a full seven IP in each of his last three starts, we begin putting him in our portfolio tonight.
Meanwhile the Dodgers have had a major lineup shuffle since LY, and have taken a bigger defensive drop than any team, from #8 all the way down to #29. And it is not as though they have brought better bats in play to replace the weaker gloves – the current IF of James Loney, Aaron Miles, Jamey Carroll and Juan Uribe brings no punch, with an anemic four HR’s in 489 at-bats; no range, except for Loney at 1B; and there is no chance of Carroll’s .320 average holding up at the age of 37. That makes life tough for Hiroki Kuroda and an unsettled bullpen, and note that Kuroda’s uninspiring 3-3/3.69 comes despite the fact that nearly half of all of his IP (22.2 of 46.2) have come against the Padres and Giants, the two worst offenses in the N.L. so far.
