STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NL PITCHING REPORT
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 30th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#901 MILWAUKEE @ #902 ST LOUIS - 1:45 PM
•Brewers RH Matt Garza (1-2, 4.09 ERA, WHIP: 1.182) - Garza posted his first win in five outings as a Brewer (and second over his last 12 starts) in Friday’s 5-2 triumph against the Chicago Cubs. The 30-year-old, who matched a season high with seven strikeouts over seven innings while allowing two runs on four hits in the victory, has a 6.55 ERA in two road turns (compared to a 2.86 ERA in three home outings). Garza is 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA in eight career starts against the Cardinals, but has an 8.31 ERA at Busch Stadium.
--KEY STAT: GARZA is 16-6 OVER (+9.9 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GARZA 4.8, OPPONENT 5.5.
•Cardinals RH Shelby Miller (2-2, 2.86 ERA, WHIP: 1.447) - Even though Miller turned his second straight scoreless outing in Friday’s 1-0 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates, he continued his troubling trend of issuing too many walks and is tied for the major-league lead with 18. The 15-game winner from a season ago, who has walked at least three in every start, yielded three hits and four walks over 5 2/3 innings versus Pittsburgh. Miller allowed one run over six innings in an April 15 road win over the Brewers and has not given up a run in either of his two career home starts against Milwaukee.
#903 NY METS @ #904 PHILADELPHIA - 7:05 PM
•Mets RH Bartolo Colon (2-3, 4.50 ERA, WHIP: 1.281) - Colon is coming off one of his best starts of the season -- a 4-1 victory over St. Louis in which he gave up one run and four hits over seven innings. The 40-year-old struck out eight Cardinals without issuing a walk, improving his 2014 strikeout-to-walk ratio to 26-to-3. Colon has spent most of his career in the American League and only has five career starts against the Phillies, going 1-2 with a 4.65 ERA.
--KEY STAT: COLON is 24-9 UNDER (+13.8 Units) versus terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLON 4.1, OPPONENT 3.5.
•Phillies RH Kyle Kendrick (0-2, 3.52 ERA, WHIP: 1.402) - Kendrick has never been much of a strikeout pitcher and has punched out more than four in only one of his five starts. He struck out two in 5 2/3 innings Thursday against the Los Angeles Dodgers and overcame 10 hits to allow only two runs without getting a decision. Kendrick is 8-8 with a 3.43 ERA lifetime against New York.
--KEY STAT: KENDRICK is 9-1 OVER (+8.1 Units) in home games versus an National League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KENDRICK 5.2, OPPONENT 5.3.
--KENDRICK is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in home games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KENDRICK 5.1, OPPONENT 5.7.
#905 ATLANTA @ #906 MIAMI - 7:10 PM
•Braves RH Aaron Harang (3-1, 0.85 ERA, WHIP: 0.884) - Harang is one of baseball’s biggest surprises in the first month of 2014, leading the majors in ERA and carrying two no-hitters beyond the sixth inning in his first five starts. He gave up one run on six hits in six innings against the Marlins on April 23 in Atlanta, striking out a season-high 11. Harang was second in the majors in opponents’ batting average at .143 and seventh in WHIP at 0.88 through Monday.
--KEY STAT: HARANG is 32-20 (+18.7 Units) against the money line in road games versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HARANG 5.3, OPPONENT 4.1.
•Marlins RH Nathan Eovaldi (1-1, 2.87 ERA, WHIP: 1.117) - Eovaldi has pitched better than his record would indicate, receiving two runs of support or less in two of his starts. He allowed an unearned run on five hits against Harang and the Braves last week, striking out seven. Eovaldi has walked only three hitters in his past four starts, covering 25 1/3 innings.
--KEY STAT: EOVALDI is 25-11 UNDER (+12.1 Units) in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was EOVALDI 3.3, OPPONENT 3.7.
#907 CHICAGO CUBS @ #908 CINCINNATI - 7:10 PM
•Cubs RH Edwin Jackson (1-2, 5.02 ERA, WHIP: 1.639) - Jackson is off to a rough start in 2014, but he might have figured something out in his last outing against Arizona. He retired 17 of the last 18 batters he faced and recorded his first quality start since Sept. 22, allowing three runs over seven innings in a tough-luck loss. Jackson is 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA in six starts against the Reds, and his only win this season came at their expense.
--KEY STAT: JACKSON is 9-25 (-18.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 3.4, OPPONENT 5.1.
--JACKSON is 2-13 (-11.5 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 3.5, OPPONENT 6.3.
--JACKSON is 8-24 (-15.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 3.0, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
•Reds LH Tony Cingrani (2-2, 2.86 ERA, WHIP: 1.235) - Cingrani gave up a career-high six hits his last time out but turned in a strong outing in a win at Pittsburgh, limiting the Pirates to one run and striking out seven over six innings. The 24-year-old has struggled with his control at times -- he issued four walks in a loss to the Cubs on April 19 in Chicago -- but averages more than a strikeout per inning. Cingrani is 1-2 with a 4.39 ERA in five meetings with the Cubs.
#909 COLORADO @ #910 ARIZONA - 9:40 PM
•Rockies RH Jordan Lyles (3-0, 2.93 ERA, WHIP: 1.109) - Lyles yielded two runs and six hits in seven innings but wasn't around for the decision in Colorado's 5-4 victory at Dodger Stadium on Friday. With Jhoulys Chacin (strained right shoulder) on the verge of making his 2014 debut after beginning the season on the disabled list, Lyles likely will stay in the rotation, with left-hander Franklin Morales returning to the bullpen. Lyles is 0-2 in three starts against Arizona, allowing 22 runs (17 earned) in 14 2/3 innings and a .411 batting average against.
--KEY STAT: LYLES is 1-15 (-13.7 Units) against the money line in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LYLES 3.4, OPPONENT 7.3.
--LYLES is 9-0 OVER (+9.1 Units) in road games versus an National League team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LYLES 3.8, OPPONENT 8.0.
--LYLES is 11-2 OVER (+9.3 Units) versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LYLES 5.2, OPPONENT 6.0.
•Diamondbacks RH Josh Collmenter (1-2, 3.38 ERA, WHIP: 1.167) - Collmenter struck out five and allowed four hits in six shutout innings of Arizona's 5-4 victory over Philadelphia on Friday. The Diamondbacks' 15th-round pick in the 2007 draft is 14-14 with a 4.02 ERA in 38 career starts as he makes fourth start since replacing Randall Delgado in the rotation. Collmenter is 2-1 with a 3.92 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 15 games (five starts) against Colorado and has generally kept Troy Tulowitzki (3-for-12, home run) in check.
#911 SAN DIEGO @ #912 SAN FRANCISCO - 10:15 PM
•Padres LH Robbie Erlin (1-3, 6.35 ERA, WHIP: 1.410) - Erlin has lost three consecutive starts, including one against the Giants on April 20 when he gave up four runs and three hits in six innings. He is 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA in two career outings against San Francisco. Erlin was roughed up for eight runs and 13 hits in 5 1/3 innings while losing to Washington in his last turn.
•Giants RH Tim Hudson (3-1, 2.19 ERA, WHIP: 0.784) - Hudson’s only loss of the season came against San Diego when he gave up two runs and eight hits in seven innings April 19. He bounced back in his last turn to hold Cleveland to one run and four hits in seven innings. Hudson is 6-2 with a 2.78 ERA in 14 career appearances (13 starts) against the Padres.
--KEY STAT: HUDSON is 17-3 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUDSON 5.5, OPPONENT 3.1.
--HUDSON is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUDSON 5.9, OPPONENT 2.7.
--HUDSON is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUDSON 6.0, OPPONENT 2.9.
--HUDSON is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUDSON 6.0, OPPONENT 2.9.
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