STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 30th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 4/30/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #5
It is time once again to break down the weekend Major League Baseball results from Point Blank range, examining key emerging issues that can have you a step ahead of the game in the days ahead. StatSystems Sports Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor takes a look at Week #5’s action.
•St. Louis – Is This The Offense That Is
It is showdown time in the National League Central when the Cardinals host the Brewers this week, and the fact that it is a #1 vs. #2 speaks volumes about the St. Louis pitching – it is not easy to open up 14-12 when the offense has scored one run or less 10 times. But while it has been an underwhelming performance by the bats, the key is to understand that it has not been that big of a crash.
The Cardinals got to the World Series last year by leading the NL in runs, quite an achievement in the first post-Pujols season. Now they are #14. But while the slash line dropping from .269/.332/.401 to .240/.308/.352 is significant, it does not explain how dramatic drop in runs has been. They led the NL in 2013 despite being #13 in HR’s, and they are #14 now, so it also has not been about power. Instead it is about just how much an outlier 2013 was in one key category that simply will not repeat.
St. Louis hit an astonishing .330 with runners in scoring position last year, far and away the best of the modern era – since 1950 no other team has been within 15 points of that. Is RISP a skill? The historical abstracts for both players and teams say no; that category tends to fall in line with overall abilities more than as a particular skill set. A team that only batted .269 overall has to hit a roulette spin for that to become .330 with RISP. And in 2013 the Cardinals were also #2 in the NL with a .314 BABIP, which has regressed to a .287 this time around. This is not an offense in a slump, but rather one that far exceeded their true abilities last year, and the current level may simply be what they are.
•Royals – Yordano Ventura Is A “Pitcher”
Value may be elusive quickly with Ventura – when a guy can hit 100 mph on the radar guns and begins to win games, folks take notice. But there is also some classifying work to be done, so that you can have him filed properly. While that high heat and strikeout count may create the image of a “thrower”, his dominant outing at Baltimore on Friday night was a textbook example of being a “pitcher”.
Ventura dispatched the Orioles without a run over eight frames, dueling at 14.1 PPI. That was the fifth time in seven Major League starts he has checked in at 15.8 or lower, and three of those were 14.4 or less. That is unheard of for guys with his velocity. Which tells us that it is not just about velocity. Of his 113 pitches at Baltimore, only 66 were fastballs, and for once he did not reach 100 on any of them. He does not have to - with a change-up and a curveball that check in at around 15 mph off of his top end, there is a gap that can buckle the knees of Major League batters.
Ventura has only had one bad outing so far, a game in which a patient Minnesota lineup tested his command. Which then leads to one of the more intriguing stories of this young season…
•Twins – Peering Beyond The Patience
What the Twins did to Ventura is what they are trying to do to just about every pitcher they face – make them throw strikes to get outs. It has worked – on the heels of a horrific 66-96 campaign they begin the week at 12-11, and just one game behind in the American League Central. The catalyst for the turnaround is easy to see - after finishing a dismal #25 in runs last year, they are now #2 in the Majors in runs-per-game!
But be aware of the smoke and mirrors aspect. In 2013 the slash line read .242/.312/.380. This season it is .253/.353/.389. The average is up slightly, the slugging even less, but there is that big gap in the middle. They are leading the way in walk rate by a substantial margin, drawing a remarkable 37 percent more than the best team from the 2013 charts. Hell, only 10 players had a higher individual walk percentage in 2013 than the Twins have as a team this season. Naturally it has had a huge impact on their scoring - rating #2 in RPG is quite a feat when you are only #21 in hits.
The Twins already have five wins in games in which they had more runs than hits. Quick a feat, but can that be maintained? Can a team with such limited lumber continue to draw free passes when opposing moundsmen learn that there is little to fear? To date the draw of the pitching schedule has been most favorable (like missing Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander this weekend). And there has to be a genuine concern about Joe Mauer’s April. With only one HR in 111 plate appearances his slugging is down to .319, off of a career .465, and his strikeout rate is more than double his career average (23.4 percent, vs. 11.4). Since hitting 28 HR’s in 2009 he has only managed 34 since, and while the rest of his offensive skills were a net plus when slotted behind the plate, those power numbers put you in a hole at 1B, when compared to the production level of other teams at the position.
Last week David Price had 12 K’s versus only one walk in a complete game win over the Twins, needing only 12.3 PPI. This offense might continue to wear down weak pitching with their patience, but could also be overmatched when stepping up in class, which can cause some problems for the oddsmakers in finding the balance point.
•White Sox – John Danks And The Warning Signs
There might be a tendency to consider Danks an early “feel good” story. A lefty that had been having an above average career saw things fall of the rails when he was injured in 2012, working to a 5.70 ERA. Those numbers were a result of hanging on too long before having shoulder surgery, which then kept him from a Major League mound for over a full calendar year. In his return the allowance dropped to 4.75, but he was penalized with among the worst support numbers in The Show, which led to a 4-14 personal W/L tag. The White Sox only managed 63 runs across his 22 starts, remarkably never topping five in any game. And 2014 brings signs of momentum, with a 2-1/3.48 as April winds down.
If you only take a cursory look at the April numbers, you may think you see a pattern. Back-to-back seasons of major improvement, right? The old Danks is back! But when you take a deeper look, there are warning signs galore.
Danks has 18 strikeouts vs. only 17 walks, an awful ratio. To put that in perspective, his 5.2 K’s-per-9 are significantly down from a career 6.7, while his walks-per-9 are up alarmingly, from 2.9 to 4.9. Instead of that 3.48 being the barometer, attach much more weight should be attached to a 5.33 xFIP, and note where it places him – there are 111 pitchers that have thrown enough innings to classify on the seasonal tables, and Danks rates dead last. It is a classic case of ERA being an improper label, with the drop from 4.75 to 3.48 in that category over 2013 running contrary to the xFIP rise from 4.08 to 5.33 in the same time frame.
The saving grace for Danks has been the HR rate, but be careful with that. So far it has been .3 HR’s-per-9 at a 2.6 percent rate on all fly balls, but his career averages in those categories run at 1.1 and 10.6. As things warm up in the South side of Chicago, those fly balls will carry again, especially with his uninspiring velocity. You have been forewarned.
•Cleveland – Searching For The Pulse
The notion of “buy signals” is essential to winning at the betting windows, finding those timing sequences in which you can get ahead of the game as a team changes its direction. It makes the Indians a prime study right now, with a search for any signs of a beat from the “heart” of the order. As bad as April has been, there may have been a unique rock bottom at San Francisco over the weekend.
Carlos Santana has had an awful time at the plate, and some of that can be genuinely attributed to having to switch to 3B. But there was no way to anticipate .268/.377/.455 turning into .122/.301/.195. Jason Kipnis can be one of the best offensive 2B in the Majors, but his .284/.366/.452 of 2013 has opened at .247/.364/.416. Nick Swisher has fallen from .246/.341/.423 to .218/.292/.337. For Asdrubal Cabrera the decline is from .242/.299/.402 to .211/.290/.333.
So how bad was the weekend by the Bay? The #3 through #6 spots in the batting order chimed in with a woeful 3-40. Not surprisingly, it was an 0-3 collar versus the Giants. But here is the gist going forward – despite those horrendous offensive performances, Cleveland is 11-14, and only three games back in the American League Central. And there really is a silver lining behind the hitters – while the team average has fallen from .255 to .237, and slugging from .410 to .362, the on-base has only dropped from .327 to .319.
The Tribe rated #4 in the Majors in walk rate in 2013. 2014? How about #4 again. The patience is there, and their contact rate is actually improved (from #23 in K rate to #8). They are putting the ball in play, but the geometry of baseball has not been kind (#26 in BABIP at .278). This is an offense that will perform much better than this dismal April as the season progresses, and is worth close scrutiny for signs of a turnaround. It will be difficult for the key heart of the batting order to have a series worse than the one that they just had.
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Betting Notes - Wednesday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Miller is 2-0, 0.53 in his last three starts.
-- Colon is 1-1, 2.57 in his last couple starts.
-- Harang is 3-1, 0.85 in five starts this season.
-- Cingrani is 2-1, 3.12 in his last three starts.
-- Lyles is 2-0, 2.49 in his last four starts. Collmenter is 1-1, 3.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Hudson is 3-1, 2.43 in five starts this season.
-- Scherzer is 2-1, 2.45 in five starts this month.
-- Wilson is 3-1, 2.77 in his last four starts. McAllister is 3-1, 2.92 in his last four starts.
-- Chavez is 1-0, 3.24 in his last four starts.
-- Ventura is 2-1, 2.16 in four starts this season. Hutchison is 0-0, 2.08 in his last three starts.
-- Tillman is 3-1, 3.94 in four starts this season.
-- Greinke is 4-0, 2.45 in five starts this season. Gibson is 2-0, 0.63 in his two home starts this month.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Garza is 1-1, 5.76 in his last four starts.
-- Kendrick is 0-2, 5.70 in his last four starts.
-- Eovaldi is 1-1, 3.79 in three home starts.
-- Jackson is 1-2, 5.79 in his last four starts.
-- Erlin is 0-3, 8.44 in his last three starts.
-- Noesi is already on third AL team this month; he was 2-12, 5.82 in 18 starts for Seattle in 2012- this is his 22nd MLB start.
-- Elias is 0-1, 7.15 in his last two starts. Phelps is making first '14 start; he is 10-9, 4.73 in 23 career starts.
-- Archer is 0-1, 5.50 in three road starts this season. Doubront is 1-3, 8.20 in his last four starts.
-- Ross is 0-1, 7.15 in his last couple starts.
-- Morton is 0-3, 6.16 in his last three starts.
-- Oberholzer is 0-2, 8.68 in two home starts this season. Zimmerman is 0-1, 4.85 in his last two starts.
•Totals
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Mets' last eight road games.
-- Six of last eight Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Cub road games stayed under.
-- Eight of last nine Milwaukee road games went over.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Arizona home games.
-- Nine of last eleven San Diego road games stayed under.
-- Seven of last ten New York home games stayed under.
-- Eight of last eleven Boston games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight White Sox games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Oakland road games went over total.
-- Seven of last eight Toronto games went over the total.
-- Nine of ten Angel home games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Pittsburgh games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eight Washington road games went over.
-- Six of last seven Minnesota games went over.
•Hot Teams
-- Mets won seven of their last nine games; Philadelphia won six of last nine.
-- Braves won 12 of their last 16 games.
-- Reds won four of its last five home games.
-- Brewers won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Rockies won ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Giants won five of their last six games. San Diego is 7-2 in game following its last nine losses.
-- Yankees won six of its last eight home games.
-- Red Sox won three of their last four games.
-- Rangers won seven of its last ten home games, but lost last two.
-- Tigers won three of its last four games. Chicago is 4-0 in game following their last four losses.
-- Royals won seven of its ten home games.
-- Angels won four of their last five home games.
-- Orioles are 7-1 in game following their last eight losses.
-- Nationals won three of its last four games.
-- Twins won six of its last eight home games.
•Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost five of last seven games, but are 9-4 at home.
-- Cubs lost seven of their last eight road games.
-- Cardinals lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Diamondbacks lost 12 of its last 13 home games.
-- Mariners lost six of their last seven away games.
-- Rays lost seven of its last eight away games.
-- Blue Jays lost five of their last six games.
-- Indians lost its last six road games.
-- Pirates lost five of their last six games.
-- Astros lost seven of their last nine home games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last seven games.
•Umpires Trends
-- Mil-StL-- Three of four Bellino games went over total.
-- NY-Phil-- All three O'Nora games stayed under total.
-- Atl-Mia-- Last three Barber games went over the total.
-- Chi-Cin-- Three of last four Drake games went over.
-- Col-Az-- Home side won four of last five Kulpa games.
-- SD-SF-- Favorites won all four Ripperger games.
-- Det-Chi-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Wendelstedt games.
-- Sea-NY-- Favorites won all five Miller games.
-- Cle-LAA-- Underdogs won three of four Morales games.
-- TB-Bos-- Underdogs won four of five Bucknor games.
-- A's-Tex-- Underdogs won four of five Diaz games.
-- Tor-KC-- All four Wegner games stayed under total.
-- Wsh-Hst-- Underdogs won four of five Schrieber games.
Diamond Trends - Wednesday
•PITTSBURGH is 8-0 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 5.9, OPPONENT 3.4.
•BOSTON is 11-0 OVER (+11.3 Units) with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 5 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 8.3, OPPONENT 4.7.
•CLEVELAND is 6-22 (-23.4 Units) against the run line versus a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 3.8, OPPONENT 5.4.
•ZACK GREINKE is 15-2 (+12.8 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GREINKE 4.0, OPPONENT 2.2.
•JORDAN LYLES is 9-0 OVER (+9.1 Units) in road games versus an National League team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LYLES 3.8, OPPONENT 8.0.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+165 to -135) (SAN DIEGO) – a very bad National League offensive team (<=3.8 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base.
(33-6 since 1997.) (84.6%, +26.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (24-15)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -107
The average score in these games was: Team 3.9, Opponent 3.2 (Average run differential = +0.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 24 (61.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3, +10.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-5, +15.4 units).
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