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Inside the Paint- Wednesday
NBA Playoffs Betting News & Notes
With National Basketball Association underdogs going 24-8-1 against the spread (75.0%) so far in the playoffs, sharp basketball bettors have been basking in payday after payday this postseason.
While books have taken plenty of money from the favorite-loving public, the wiseguys usually sit on the other side of those NBA lines, gladly grabbing the points. Unlike in sports such as football, where an underdog streak like this would be a boom for the books, the NBA Playoffs have been a struggle for sportsbooks so far, both online and in Las Vegas.
“It’s fairly choppy for us,” Jay Rood, Vice President of Race and Sports for MGM in Las Vegas, tells StatSystems Sports. “Many of the sharps play the underdog and if the sharps hit on a game without a lot of public action, then it can be bad.” Rood says the most dangerous games for the sportsbooks right now are the midweek early games – 7:00 PM EST tipoffs which start at 4:00 PM in Nevada – because the walk-in traffic and convention goers are still busy, leaving little public action to balance the big bets being placed by the wiseguys.
“The midweek people aren’t getting engaged until after 5:00 p.m. and it makes the late games much more attractive, since they can come in and place a bet and have a beer,” says Rood. “That leaves us going head-to-head with sharps in the early games. So if the underdogs are covering in those early midweek games, it’s not good for us.” Rood says the recent underdog trend has pulled some public bettors towards taking the points. While a regular season game may see 80/20 split in terms of money on the favorite, playoff games are showing a 75/25 split with more action coming in on the dogs – a trend not just reserved to Las Vegas sportsbooks.
According to Peter Childs of Sportsbook.ag, some playoff series are drawing significant action on the underdogs – from public and professional gamblers – leaving books in a rare and dangerous position of cheering for the favorite. Another reason books are taking a licking in the early going is the amount of Overs paying out in the playoffs. As of Monday, the NBA Playoffs have produced a 21-11-1 Over/Under count with the Over winning 65 percent of the time.
“We’ve needed the favorites in many of these series and games,” Childs told us here at StatSystems Sports. “The Warriors right now are getting tons of action almost every game and they’ve been covering, going 3-1 ATS and the one game they didn’t attract attention they laid an egg in Game #2. Same with the Hawks in their series. And we’ve had numerous games land on the number, which is never good.” Childs points to the Houston Rockets’ 123-120 loss to Portland Sunday, which pushed with many spreads available and topped the 214-point total. “The Rockets (Sunday) night was flat out the worst result possible, landing on three and going way over,” he says.
Books don’t expect this trend to be strictly isolated to the first round either. Rood is bracing for more underdog money simple based on the fact that many of the elite teams have shown weaknesses early on in the postseason. “When (bettors) see teams struggle, like the Spurs or Pacers – if those teams advance – they think the second-round underdogs in those scenario have some value,” he says. “The sharps tend to land on that side as it is, so we aren’t going to adjust too much,” he adds. “We do need to encourage more people to bet those favorites in the early games, though.”
Betting Notes - Wednesday
•All four Toronto-Brooklyn games were decided by 8 or less points, as teams went 1-1 in each arena. DeRozan scored 30-30-24 points in last three games, but is just 27-76 from floor in series. Toronto was +6 last game in turnovers; they're -19 (64-45) in series. Brooklyn is 22-88 from arc in series. Nets lost six of last nine games, are 19-24 versus spread on road this season. Over is 26-17 in Toronto home games this season.
•Dallas lost 11 of last 13 games versus Spurs, but they've covered all four in this series and last five games overall; Nowitzki/Ellis were combined 13-39 from floor in Game #4 loss, when Spurs outscored Dallas 32-13 in second quarter. Spurs' bench outscored Maverick subs 50-30 last game, now Dallas' big man sub Blair is suspended after kicking Splitter in last game. Over is 28-15 in Maverick road games this season.
•Three of four Rocket-Blazer games went OT; Aldridge scored 29+ in all three Portland wins, was held to 23 in the loss. Portland won 11 of last 14 games; they're 27-16 versus spread on road this season- over is 26-17, as last 11 series games also went over, helped by OTs in series. Harden is 36-103 from floor this series, not good for Rockets, who covered once in their last five games as a favorite. Over is 24-18-1 in Rocket home tilts.
Hoop Trends - Wednesday
•DALLAS is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season.
The average score was DALLAS 103.4, OPPONENT 103.4.
•PORTLAND is 14-1 OVER (+12.9 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.
The average score was PORTLAND 112.1, OPPONENT 111.7.
•HOUSTON is 16-4 (+11.6 Units) against the 1rst half line after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games this season.
The average score was HOUSTON 57.9, OPPONENT 51.5.
•PORTLAND is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite this season.
The average score was PORTLAND 55, OPPONENT 54.9.
•TERRY STOTTS is 24-4 OVER (+19.6 Units) versus teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents as the coach of PORTLAND.
The average score was STOTTS 108.7, OPPONENT 108.7.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game.
(23-4 since 1996.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (15-13)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.6
The average score in these games was: Team 114.5, Opponent 114.1 (Average point differential = +0.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (55.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
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