DR BOB
Wednesday NBA Analysis
Philadelphia (+10 ½) at MIAMI
Miami has won only 15 of 39 home games (38.5%) by 11 points or more when all 3 of their stars are playing, so their chances of beating a better than average 76ers team by 11 points or more don’t appear to be that good. I realize that the Heat are coming off a loss in game 4, but Miami is only 1-13 ATS this season as a home favorite after a loss. Miami is better with their 3 superstars playing more minutes in the playoffs than they did in the regular season but my ratings still only favor the Heat by 9 ½ points even after making that adjustment. I’m a little concerned with the fact that Miami has out-scored the Sixers in this series by an average of 7.8 points per game despite shooting only 24% from 3-point range while Philly has made 42% from beyond the arc. That means that the Heat are dominating all other facets of this series and that they will probably win big if the 3-point shooting is normal for each team. I’ll pass on this game.
Memphis (+6 ½) at SAN ANTONIO
The Spurs apply to a solid 136-78-4 ATS home favorite bounce-back situation tonight but the best part of that situation does not apply and I’m certainly not going against a Grizzlies squad that matches up very well against the Spurs (8-0 ATS this season) and is 22-4 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points with Zach Randolph playing. My ratings only favor San Antonio by 5 ½ points, but I’ll respect the general situation that favors the Spurs and I’ll pass on this game.
UNDER (204 ½) – Denver (+7) at OKLAHOMA CITY
My ratings favor Oklahoma City by 6 ½ points with a total of 201 ½ points so there isn’t much value in the side but there is still some value on the Under. I’ll lean Under 203 points or higher and I’d consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 205 points or more.
Wednesday NBA Analysis
Philadelphia (+10 ½) at MIAMI
Miami has won only 15 of 39 home games (38.5%) by 11 points or more when all 3 of their stars are playing, so their chances of beating a better than average 76ers team by 11 points or more don’t appear to be that good. I realize that the Heat are coming off a loss in game 4, but Miami is only 1-13 ATS this season as a home favorite after a loss. Miami is better with their 3 superstars playing more minutes in the playoffs than they did in the regular season but my ratings still only favor the Heat by 9 ½ points even after making that adjustment. I’m a little concerned with the fact that Miami has out-scored the Sixers in this series by an average of 7.8 points per game despite shooting only 24% from 3-point range while Philly has made 42% from beyond the arc. That means that the Heat are dominating all other facets of this series and that they will probably win big if the 3-point shooting is normal for each team. I’ll pass on this game.
Memphis (+6 ½) at SAN ANTONIO
The Spurs apply to a solid 136-78-4 ATS home favorite bounce-back situation tonight but the best part of that situation does not apply and I’m certainly not going against a Grizzlies squad that matches up very well against the Spurs (8-0 ATS this season) and is 22-4 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points with Zach Randolph playing. My ratings only favor San Antonio by 5 ½ points, but I’ll respect the general situation that favors the Spurs and I’ll pass on this game.
UNDER (204 ½) – Denver (+7) at OKLAHOMA CITY
My ratings favor Oklahoma City by 6 ½ points with a total of 201 ½ points so there isn’t much value in the side but there is still some value on the Under. I’ll lean Under 203 points or higher and I’d consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 205 points or more.
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