Jeff Scott Sports
TOP PLAYS
5 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Florida State/ Boston College Over 121: Boy these totals have been tough on me, but I feel that i have a good one here, as long as these teams don't put up just 2 points in their last 3 minutes of the game, LOL. Boston College has had problems scoring this year, especially of late as they have averaged just 51.4 ppg in their last 5 games, while in their ACC games they have averaged 55.4 ppg. No they aren't scoring well at all, but the Noles have allowed 60.8 ppg on the road and 62.4 ppg in ACC play so I am fully expecting at least 55 points from the Eagles in this one. That means that we need just 67 points from the Noles. FSU has averaged 71.6 ppg in ACC play on the year, while in their last 5 overall they have averaged 72.2 ppg on 49.8% shooting. BC has allowed 66.1 ppg in ACC play and 66.1 ppg at home, so expecting the Noles to hit at least 67 points in this one is a pretty safe bet. I am actually expecting about 70 from FSU in this one, meaning we don't need a whole lot from the Eagles. Neither team is horrible from the FT line the Arc so you can expect a few extra points from those spots on the court. BC's conference games have averaged just 121.6 ppg, while the Noles' ACC games have put up 134 ppg. This game will fall in between the 2 numbers somewhere. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over in all games where total is 129.5 or less if the home team has gone under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games and they are a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record. This play is 45-10 since 1997.
4 UNIT PLAYS
Missouri State/ Southern Illinois Under 123.5: The Salukis are having some real problems putting the ball in the hoop these days as they have averaged just 52.2 ppg on 40.1% shooting in their last 5 games. I don't expect their scoring to go up much in this one vs a Bears team that has allowed just 58.9 ppg on 37.1% shooting on the road this year and just 57.6 ppg on 39.5% shooting in their last 5 games overall. How bad are the Salukis on offense these days? Well consider that in their last game they were able to score just 53 point on an Evansville team that is 281st in scoring defense (71.7 ppg) and 328th in FG% defense (47.7 %). This offense has not been good at all of late and it won't get better tonight vs the Bears. MSU does average 66.8 ppg in MVC plays and 65,.4 ppg on the road, but they come in struggling a bit at the offensive end as they have averaged just 61.2 ppg on 41.2% shooting in their last 5 games. On defense he Salukis have allowed 70.8 ppg in MVC, but it has been much better of late as they have allowed 63 ppg on 43.9% shooting in their last 5 games. Even if MSU should hit 65 points in this game i just don't see SIU hitting more than 55 points. They just can't score right now and playing a Bears team that hasn't given up much lately won't help here. I expect around 115 in this one.
NORTH CAROLINA -6 over Duke: The Blue Devils do not come into this one playing all that well as in their last 5 games they have lost to Miami and FSU (both at home), beat St John's by just 7 (also at home) and struggled with Va Tech and Maryland before pulling a way late. Carolina also lost to FSU this year, but since then they have won 5 in a row and have outscored their opponents by 13.8 ppg. The Heels are 14-0 at home on the year and have outscored their opponents by 24.8 ppg, including outscoring their ACC foes by 17.8 ppg on this court. Duke is normally known for a solid defensive team, but this year they have allowed 69.1 ppg (231st) on 43.8% shooting (218th) and now must head to Carolina where the Heels have averaged 89.1 ppg on 49.1% shooting at home. That is not a good matchup for the Devils. Carolina had some defensive problems in the early part of the year, but they have allowed 65.8 ppg in their last 4 games and they have allowed just 64.3 ppg at home. Duke can score, but Carolina's defense has been strong and should be able to keep the Dukies from putting up enough points to keep this one close. Carolina lost by 17 points to Duke in last years ACC Tourney and they will look for payback here. Heels by DD in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Temple/ George Washington Over 132: Temple has been on a scoring spree of late as they come in having scored 73 points or more in 6 straight games, while averaging 76.1 ppg over that stretch. The Owls have also averaged a healthy 79 ppg at home and 74.6 ppg in Atlantic 10 play. GW comes in having allowed 67.6 ppg in conference play, including 71.3 ppg in A-10 road games. Temple is an uptempo team this year and in the last 4 games GW has faced two uptempo teams (Lasalle & UMass) and they allowed 78 & 86 points in those two games respectively, with 151 ppg scored in the two games. In an uptempo game GW doesn't have good enough defensive play to hold teams down and they get into high scoring games. In those two game GW did put up 69 ppg, while in conference play they have averaged 64.2 ppg, and while they have struggled to score of late (57.6 ppg in their last 5 games), they should be able to grab at least 63 points vs a temple team that has allowed 66.6 ppg in Conference play and 70.7 ppg in their home games overall. In this game I can see Temple hitting at least 75 points, leaving GW with only 59 points to get and I feel that will be easy for them as well. This game should flirt with 140 points.
Pittsburgh -3 over SOUTH FLORIDA: The Panther have shaken off their rough start in the Big East to win 4 in a row and they have been impressive in doing so. The Panthers had lost 8 in a row, while scoring just 59.8 ppg and that was mainly due to the loss of Trey Woodall, but with him back they have looked much better at the offensive end, putting up 77.5 ppg in their 4 game win streak. South Florida has impressed this year as they are 6-4 in the Big East and 10-1 at home, but they have lost by 20 points to Marquette and 30 to Georgetown in their last 3 games. True those games where on the road, but it shows that this team will have problems with the better teams in the league and right now Pitt is one of the better teams in the league. Pitt seems to be finding its swagger, and at a scary time for the rest of the Big East. The once proud program has some ground to make up but figures to keep its momentum headed in the right direction Wednesday with a fifth consecutive win. KEY TRENDS--- S FLORIDA is 0-7 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season, while PITTSBURGH is 17-8 ATS after 3 consecutive conference games over the last 2 seasons.
5 POINT TEASER--- Buffalo PK & North Carolina -1
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
Michigan -3 over NEBRASKA: The Huskers are wearing down at the defensive end as they have allowed 76.3 ppg in their last 4 games. Michigan has been playing very good defense this year as they have allowed just 62.3 ppg overall. Even at home I don't expect the Huskers defense to let them stay in this one. The Wolverines get a rare road win here with ease.
KEY TRENDS--- MICHIGAN is 14-4 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons, while NEBRASKA is 8-21 ATS versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season since 1997.
Baylor/ Kansas Under 143.5: The Over looks real enticing, especially after these teams combined for 166 in the last game, but I believe adjustments will be made and these two very good defensive teams will shine at that end of the floor. Kansas has allowed teams to score just 61.3 ppg (45th) on just 38.3% shooting (11th), while Baylor comes in allowing just 63.1 ppg (77th) on 39.6% shooting, including just 61 ppg on 38.8% shooting on the road, while at home they have allowed just 61 ppg on 36.4% shooting. Baylor's Big 12 games have averaged 144.4 ppg, but Kansas' conference games have averaged 137.7 ppg. Both teams can score and both teams may look to run, but this is also a very very big game and i expect the pace to really drop off in the last 10 minutes of the game as both teams work the clock and look for the perfect shot. This one should finish around 138.
1 UNIT PLAY
NC Wilmington +6 over DELAWARE: UNC-WILMINGTON is 10-2 ATS versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons, and 35-18 ATS in road games in February games since 1997
