Wednesday NBA play + 6 unit info GC
On Wednesday the play in the NBA is on the NO. Hornets. Game 712 at 8:05 eastern. The Hornets qualify in a nice little system here tonight. What we want to do is play on home favorites of -4 or less with no rest if they were a road dog of 5 or more last night and scored 100 or more. If the opposition scored 100 or more as ahome favorite in their last game, these unrested home favorites have cashed over 80% of the time and win by an average 101-91 score. Miami is 0-9 ats vs the Hornets over the past few seasons. New Orleans is in one of their best team power angles as well tonight. They are a solid 14-1 straight up at home off a road game with no rest. Lay the small number here tonight. On Wednesday if you think this Bonus Play is strong I have a 6 unit Western Conference Game of the Year with a 17-0 system and 2 big Power Angles. In Bowl action I have a 5 unit Triple system play. All systems are hitting over 90% and the lead system at 97% long term. Those with me on Tuesday cashed big With Wisconsin. Tonight we do more damage. Take the Hornets tonight in the NBA. BOL GC
On Wednesday the play in the NBA is on the NO. Hornets. Game 712 at 8:05 eastern. The Hornets qualify in a nice little system here tonight. What we want to do is play on home favorites of -4 or less with no rest if they were a road dog of 5 or more last night and scored 100 or more. If the opposition scored 100 or more as ahome favorite in their last game, these unrested home favorites have cashed over 80% of the time and win by an average 101-91 score. Miami is 0-9 ats vs the Hornets over the past few seasons. New Orleans is in one of their best team power angles as well tonight. They are a solid 14-1 straight up at home off a road game with no rest. Lay the small number here tonight. On Wednesday if you think this Bonus Play is strong I have a 6 unit Western Conference Game of the Year with a 17-0 system and 2 big Power Angles. In Bowl action I have a 5 unit Triple system play. All systems are hitting over 90% and the lead system at 97% long term. Those with me on Tuesday cashed big With Wisconsin. Tonight we do more damage. Take the Hornets tonight in the NBA. BOL GC
OUTBACK BOWL PREDICTIONS
JAY HORNE
2010 Outback Bowl Odds and Predictions
Northwestern Wildcats (8-4) vs. Auburn Tigers (7-5)
Date: Jan. 1 2010
Location: Raymond James Stadium Tampa, Florida
Spread: Auburn -7, 55 total
The Northwestern Wildcats made some noise in the Big Ten at the end of the season, capturing upsets against previously No. 4 Iowa and also at the time No. 16 Wisconsin to close out the year with three straight victories. The impressive ending to the season earned the Wildcats a trip to the Outback Bowl in just their fourth ever appearance in a New Year’s Day bowl game. The Wildcats are scheduled to battle the Auburn Tigers in what will be the first game of the New Year when the two tangle at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.
The Outback Bowl has traditionally featured teams from the Big Ten and SEC, but this will be the first year since 1996 that the Outback Bowl committee selected a team out of the SEC West division. In that game, it was Auburn’s only appearance in the Outback Bowl and they were blown out by Penn State, 43-14. The Tigers will definitely seek a better showing 13 years after that embarrassing loss when they meet the Wildcats on Friday afternoon. Coach Gene Chizik guided Auburn to a 7-5 record this season and will be attempting to grab his first postseason victory. Luckily, the Tigers have won five of their last six bowl games and won their last three bowl games against teams from the Big Ten.
The game features two offenses that can score points in a hurry. Auburn led the nation through the first half of the season in total offense before slowing a bit during the second half of the season. The Tigers still managed 432 yards of total offense, on average, to go along with 33 points per game. Auburn’s season record may be somewhat misleading, but they are the same team that led no. 1 Alabama for 58 minutes before a late score ended their hopes of an upset. There will be an equally dangerous offense on the other side of the field as well. Northwestern ranked second in the Big Ten, averaging 266 yards per game through the air and they have big play capability. The Wildcats hung 33 points and nearly 400 passing yards against a Wisconsin defense that ranked 19th overall. Both offenses ended the year playing well and sparks are expected to fly when these two talented offenses square off in what could become a high-scoring affair.
Motivation
Normally motivation is a big factor in postseason activity, but both teams should have plenty of enthuSIAsm heading into Friday’s game. Both teams had better seasons than most would have expected. Northwestern is trying to continue their late-season charge and wrap up their second straight nine-win season and prove they are going to be a force in the Big Ten for years to come. Auburn has rebounded in Gene Chizik’s first season as coach after a disappointing 5-7 campaign in 2008. The Tigers could now send seniors Greg Todd (QB) and running back Ben Tate out on a high note while continuing to build some momentum around the Tigers football program heading into 2010.
Matchups
Both offenses can move the ball through the air and will have success doing so. However, Auburn’s ability to run the football gives them the edge in this game. The Auburn offensive line played extremely well against that ferocious Alabama defensive front in the Iron Bowl and if they play well again Tate will have the opportunity to run wild. He is an exceptional tailback and has racked up more than 1,200 yards this season. The Tigers offensive line averages 300 pounds and will have a noticeable size advantage over the Wildcats defensive line. It is imperative the Northwestern defense gets off the ball well and plug up holes in the running game. If the Wildcats do not play well up front, Auburn will control the game in the trenches and use their running game to bring home the victory.
Also, when the Wildcats offense is on the field they will rely heavily on quarterback Mike Kafka. Kafka is an experienced veteran in Pat Fitzgerald’s offense and closing in on the 3,000-yard passing mark. The Auburn secondary was among the most inconsistent groups in the SEC this year, giving up a ton of yards to passing teams like Arkansas and Tennessee. The Tigers, on average, gave up nearly 200 yards per game through the air. Wildcats receivers Andrew Brewer and Zeke Markshausen are solid targets in the passing game. If Auburn does not get a ton of pressure on Kafka, their talented receivers will make plays against the Tigers pass defense. Brewer is a big play threat, averaging 17 yards per catch and a few big plays in the passing game could really boost the Wildcats chances at scoring the win.
Line Value and Outback Bowl Odds
Most college football betting lines opened favoring the Auburn Tigers by eight points and even as much as 8.5 points on the Internet. However, after a few shifts most online sportsbooks have the Tigers listed at seven-point favorites and that mark is holding steady. The betting public is pretty indecisive with around 55 percent of the early action siding with the Wildcats. The total for the opened at 54.5, but is lingering around the 55 mark at most sportsbooks.
Outback Bowl Predictions
I really do not see the 55 total being reached here. Northwestern relies on their passing offense, but they are not just going to rack up a ton of points against this SEC defense. However, if the Wildcats can make the big plays they can contend for a victory. The Auburn offense is going to try to run over the Wildcats defensive front and when they have success doing so they will keep the ball on the ground, giving limited opportunities for each offense to score. Take the ‘under’ 55.
JAY HORNE
2010 Outback Bowl Odds and Predictions
Northwestern Wildcats (8-4) vs. Auburn Tigers (7-5)
Date: Jan. 1 2010
Location: Raymond James Stadium Tampa, Florida
Spread: Auburn -7, 55 total
The Northwestern Wildcats made some noise in the Big Ten at the end of the season, capturing upsets against previously No. 4 Iowa and also at the time No. 16 Wisconsin to close out the year with three straight victories. The impressive ending to the season earned the Wildcats a trip to the Outback Bowl in just their fourth ever appearance in a New Year’s Day bowl game. The Wildcats are scheduled to battle the Auburn Tigers in what will be the first game of the New Year when the two tangle at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.
The Outback Bowl has traditionally featured teams from the Big Ten and SEC, but this will be the first year since 1996 that the Outback Bowl committee selected a team out of the SEC West division. In that game, it was Auburn’s only appearance in the Outback Bowl and they were blown out by Penn State, 43-14. The Tigers will definitely seek a better showing 13 years after that embarrassing loss when they meet the Wildcats on Friday afternoon. Coach Gene Chizik guided Auburn to a 7-5 record this season and will be attempting to grab his first postseason victory. Luckily, the Tigers have won five of their last six bowl games and won their last three bowl games against teams from the Big Ten.
The game features two offenses that can score points in a hurry. Auburn led the nation through the first half of the season in total offense before slowing a bit during the second half of the season. The Tigers still managed 432 yards of total offense, on average, to go along with 33 points per game. Auburn’s season record may be somewhat misleading, but they are the same team that led no. 1 Alabama for 58 minutes before a late score ended their hopes of an upset. There will be an equally dangerous offense on the other side of the field as well. Northwestern ranked second in the Big Ten, averaging 266 yards per game through the air and they have big play capability. The Wildcats hung 33 points and nearly 400 passing yards against a Wisconsin defense that ranked 19th overall. Both offenses ended the year playing well and sparks are expected to fly when these two talented offenses square off in what could become a high-scoring affair.
Motivation
Normally motivation is a big factor in postseason activity, but both teams should have plenty of enthuSIAsm heading into Friday’s game. Both teams had better seasons than most would have expected. Northwestern is trying to continue their late-season charge and wrap up their second straight nine-win season and prove they are going to be a force in the Big Ten for years to come. Auburn has rebounded in Gene Chizik’s first season as coach after a disappointing 5-7 campaign in 2008. The Tigers could now send seniors Greg Todd (QB) and running back Ben Tate out on a high note while continuing to build some momentum around the Tigers football program heading into 2010.
Matchups
Both offenses can move the ball through the air and will have success doing so. However, Auburn’s ability to run the football gives them the edge in this game. The Auburn offensive line played extremely well against that ferocious Alabama defensive front in the Iron Bowl and if they play well again Tate will have the opportunity to run wild. He is an exceptional tailback and has racked up more than 1,200 yards this season. The Tigers offensive line averages 300 pounds and will have a noticeable size advantage over the Wildcats defensive line. It is imperative the Northwestern defense gets off the ball well and plug up holes in the running game. If the Wildcats do not play well up front, Auburn will control the game in the trenches and use their running game to bring home the victory.
Also, when the Wildcats offense is on the field they will rely heavily on quarterback Mike Kafka. Kafka is an experienced veteran in Pat Fitzgerald’s offense and closing in on the 3,000-yard passing mark. The Auburn secondary was among the most inconsistent groups in the SEC this year, giving up a ton of yards to passing teams like Arkansas and Tennessee. The Tigers, on average, gave up nearly 200 yards per game through the air. Wildcats receivers Andrew Brewer and Zeke Markshausen are solid targets in the passing game. If Auburn does not get a ton of pressure on Kafka, their talented receivers will make plays against the Tigers pass defense. Brewer is a big play threat, averaging 17 yards per catch and a few big plays in the passing game could really boost the Wildcats chances at scoring the win.
Line Value and Outback Bowl Odds
Most college football betting lines opened favoring the Auburn Tigers by eight points and even as much as 8.5 points on the Internet. However, after a few shifts most online sportsbooks have the Tigers listed at seven-point favorites and that mark is holding steady. The betting public is pretty indecisive with around 55 percent of the early action siding with the Wildcats. The total for the opened at 54.5, but is lingering around the 55 mark at most sportsbooks.
Outback Bowl Predictions
I really do not see the 55 total being reached here. Northwestern relies on their passing offense, but they are not just going to rack up a ton of points against this SEC defense. However, if the Wildcats can make the big plays they can contend for a victory. The Auburn offense is going to try to run over the Wildcats defensive front and when they have success doing so they will keep the ball on the ground, giving limited opportunities for each offense to score. Take the ‘under’ 55.
CAPITAL ONE BOWL PREDICTIONS
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NICHOLAS TOLOMEO
2010 Capital One Bowl Odds and Predictions
A couple of programs who are no strangers to New Year’s Day meet in a 1 p.m. matchup at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida. Penn State at 10-2 is the third place team out of the Big Ten and LSU at 9-3 is the third place team out of the SEC. The game is a matchup of two of the top bowl teams. LSU has enjoyed recent success, winning four straight and all were in blowout fashion. Penn State has all-time success with Joe Paterno, the winningest bowl coach of all time.
Motivation
There were some thoughts that the BCS might pick Penn State in order to bring in all the Nittany Lion fans and add the Joe Paterno appeal, even though that would mean skipping over Iowa, who had defeated Penn State in Happy Valley. But besides that Penn State has to be happy to be playing in Florida on New Year’s Day. LSU is happy to be here also after picking up a big win over Arkansas in the regular season finale to ensure another January Bowl game for the Tigers. Penn State enters the game, too, after a big rivalry win, a 42-14 thumping of Michigan State on the road.
With veteran coaches and an ideal bowl game, motivation will not be a factor in Orlando.
Matchups
There is no denying, both teams are in this New Year’s Day bowl game because of their defense. Penn State has a balanced defense, equally tough against the pass and the run and overall the unit is ranked No. 8 in the country. LSU has allowed 134 yards per game on the ground this year, 44th-best in the country, but they have been stout against the pass and rank No. 28 in the country overall on defense.
The major difference is that Penn State has a dynamic offense capable of putting points on the board. The LSU offense has been characterized as one of the worst in program history and is a big reason why Les Miles could be approaching the hot seat. The Tigers are a horrendous 108th in the country on offense. They have had numerous issues on offense. However, LSU has managed a 9-3 record against an SEC schedule. The offensive rankings were hurt in games against Alabama and Florida. The Penn State defense does not approach either of those SEC units.
Line Value and Capital One Bowl Odds
Penn State enters the game as 2.5-point favorites with a total set at 43.5. There has been very little movement for this game, although Penn State could have been found at -3 back in early December when the line first came out. The Big Ten has enjoyed success against the SEC in this bowl game, winning four out of the past five while covering three of the five spreads. However, before that it was the SEC winning three straight and covering all three spreads.
Penn State has been favored in all of their games this season but most spreads have been between 24-30. In those situations the Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS. But when the spread is below that they are 5-2 ATS. LSU has only been an underdog four times and in those situations they are 2-2 SU and ATS.
Penn State’s two losses have come against the top two defenses it has faced, Iowa and Ohio State. The LSU defense is just as solid as those two Big Ten teams. Points will be hard to come by for Penn State, there is value in taking the ‘under’ and taking LSU and any amount of points you can get.
Capital One Bowl Predictions
The LSU offense has taken its lumps this season but the defense has more than made up for it. The Tigers three losses have come at Ole Miss by two points, at Alabama by nine points and against Florida by 10. Hardly terrible losses. Penn State’s losses have both come at home when the Nittany Lions were favored.
Last season Penn State had a better regular season, but were outclassed and outmatched by USC in the Rose Bowl. That has not happened to LSU, who has been the most successful bowl team the past four years. Consider their wins in that time under Les Miles, 40-3 over Miami (Fla.), 41-14 over Notre Dame, 38-24 over Ohio State and 38-3 over Georgia Tech. Two of those games were BCS games, including a National Championship Game and the other two were in the Peach Bowl.
Les Miles is the top bowl coach in the country right now and Penn State has shown how it struggles against elite defenses. This has a defensive battle written all over it, just what LSU wants.
The pick is LSU plus the points and the ‘under’
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NICHOLAS TOLOMEO
2010 Capital One Bowl Odds and Predictions
A couple of programs who are no strangers to New Year’s Day meet in a 1 p.m. matchup at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida. Penn State at 10-2 is the third place team out of the Big Ten and LSU at 9-3 is the third place team out of the SEC. The game is a matchup of two of the top bowl teams. LSU has enjoyed recent success, winning four straight and all were in blowout fashion. Penn State has all-time success with Joe Paterno, the winningest bowl coach of all time.
Motivation
There were some thoughts that the BCS might pick Penn State in order to bring in all the Nittany Lion fans and add the Joe Paterno appeal, even though that would mean skipping over Iowa, who had defeated Penn State in Happy Valley. But besides that Penn State has to be happy to be playing in Florida on New Year’s Day. LSU is happy to be here also after picking up a big win over Arkansas in the regular season finale to ensure another January Bowl game for the Tigers. Penn State enters the game, too, after a big rivalry win, a 42-14 thumping of Michigan State on the road.
With veteran coaches and an ideal bowl game, motivation will not be a factor in Orlando.
Matchups
There is no denying, both teams are in this New Year’s Day bowl game because of their defense. Penn State has a balanced defense, equally tough against the pass and the run and overall the unit is ranked No. 8 in the country. LSU has allowed 134 yards per game on the ground this year, 44th-best in the country, but they have been stout against the pass and rank No. 28 in the country overall on defense.
The major difference is that Penn State has a dynamic offense capable of putting points on the board. The LSU offense has been characterized as one of the worst in program history and is a big reason why Les Miles could be approaching the hot seat. The Tigers are a horrendous 108th in the country on offense. They have had numerous issues on offense. However, LSU has managed a 9-3 record against an SEC schedule. The offensive rankings were hurt in games against Alabama and Florida. The Penn State defense does not approach either of those SEC units.
Line Value and Capital One Bowl Odds
Penn State enters the game as 2.5-point favorites with a total set at 43.5. There has been very little movement for this game, although Penn State could have been found at -3 back in early December when the line first came out. The Big Ten has enjoyed success against the SEC in this bowl game, winning four out of the past five while covering three of the five spreads. However, before that it was the SEC winning three straight and covering all three spreads.
Penn State has been favored in all of their games this season but most spreads have been between 24-30. In those situations the Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS. But when the spread is below that they are 5-2 ATS. LSU has only been an underdog four times and in those situations they are 2-2 SU and ATS.
Penn State’s two losses have come against the top two defenses it has faced, Iowa and Ohio State. The LSU defense is just as solid as those two Big Ten teams. Points will be hard to come by for Penn State, there is value in taking the ‘under’ and taking LSU and any amount of points you can get.
Capital One Bowl Predictions
The LSU offense has taken its lumps this season but the defense has more than made up for it. The Tigers three losses have come at Ole Miss by two points, at Alabama by nine points and against Florida by 10. Hardly terrible losses. Penn State’s losses have both come at home when the Nittany Lions were favored.
Last season Penn State had a better regular season, but were outclassed and outmatched by USC in the Rose Bowl. That has not happened to LSU, who has been the most successful bowl team the past four years. Consider their wins in that time under Les Miles, 40-3 over Miami (Fla.), 41-14 over Notre Dame, 38-24 over Ohio State and 38-3 over Georgia Tech. Two of those games were BCS games, including a National Championship Game and the other two were in the Peach Bowl.
Les Miles is the top bowl coach in the country right now and Penn State has shown how it struggles against elite defenses. This has a defensive battle written all over it, just what LSU wants.
The pick is LSU plus the points and the ‘under’
SUN BOWL PREDICTIONS
ROBERT FERRINGO
2009 Sun Bowl Odds and Predictions
Last year at this time Oklahoma was prepping for a National Championship Game and ready to go pimping in Miami. Now they are tuning up for the Sun Bowl in sweet El Paso.
What a difference a year makes, eh?
Oklahoma will match up with No. 21 Stanford at 2 p.m. on Thursday, Dec. 31 in the Sun Bowl. The Sooners are presently 10-point favorites in this game despite the fact that they are the unranked team. The total is 55.5.
This has clearly been a disappointing season for the Sooners, who started the year in the Top 5. But five losses later they find themselves slumming it in El Paso.
Stanford, on the other hand, has been one of college football’s pleasant surprises. They finished No. 2 in the Pac-10 and managed an impressive 8-4 record just three years after posting a pathetic 1-11 mark. Their record this year includes big wins over USC and Oregon.
Stanford’s top gun is Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart. The senior running back led the nation in rushing yards (1,736) and rushing touchdowns (26). However, the big news for the Cardinal is the status of starting quarterback Andrew Luck. The freshman has a broken finger and is considered doubtful to start the game. However, he has been practicing and there is an increasing chance that he might play.
This game is on a neutral site and it pits a pair of terrible road teams against one another. Besides their win at USC, Stanford went just 1-3 ATS on the road this season. They lost at Arizona, at Oregon State and at Wake Forest, and just three of their last 10 games were away from home. Oklahoma was even worse. They went 1-4 ATS away from home and lost games at Texas Tech, at Nebraska, at Miami and in a neutral site game against BYU.
Here is a deeper view into this game:
Motivation
We’re starting to get into the more serious bowl games with the upper-level teams, so motivation is becoming less and less of a problem. But 10-cent psychology here suggests that Stanford will be more motivated here because Oklahoma has no interest in this bowl game.
I don’t agree. They are playing a Top 25 team (OU is outside the Top 25) and this is a chance for another season-salvaging victory. We’ve already seen teams like USC, Pittsburgh and Clemson shrug off late-season disappointments to win their bowl games and score covers (that trio went 2-1 against the spread). Oklahoma has actually lost five of its last six bowl games outright and you know that Bob Stoops is going to have his boys ready to play.
This is Stanford’s first bowl game since 2001 and they are looking for their first bowl win since a victory in the Sun Bowl back in 1996. That makes this game exciting for the program, but they don’t have nearly the motivation of a team like SMU, which hadn’t been to a bowl game in 25 years.
Matchups
The key to this game is clearly going to be Stanford’s rushing game (No. 11 with 224 yards per game) against Oklahoma’s rushing defense (No. 7 at 88 yards per game). Overall, the Cardinal are No. 13 in total offense while the Sooners are No. 7 in total defense. If Luck can’t go then OU should be able to stack up and try to shut down Gerhart.
Also, the Sooners are fifth in the country in sacks, averaging three per game. Stanford’s offensive line is second in the nation, allowing only a half-sack per game.
On the other side, Stanford’s passing defense has been awful (No. 105 at 252 yards allowed per game) while Oklahoma’s bread-and-butter this year has been its passing game (No. 17 at 278 ypg). Oklahoma has been mediocre with its rushing game (No. 69 at 141 ypg) and faces an equally mediocre Stanford rush defense (No. 61 at 141). That tells me that OU should be able to have its way with the Stanford defense all around. And with so much attention going to whether or not Oklahoma can stop Gerhart, maybe the question should be whether or not Stanford can stop OU.
Line Value and 2009 Sun Bowl Odds
The line on this game opened around -7 or -8 and has since shot up to -10. However, about 75 percent of all of the action on this game is coming in on Stanford, making Oklahoma a disrespected favorite.
The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games, all of which they were favored in. Oklahoma is also just 2-5 ATS as a favorite playing on a neutral site. However, they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games against the Pac-10.
Stanford is a mere 2-5 ATS in its last seven nonconference games and failed to cover their last two games to close the regular season. However, prior to that they were on a sweet 7-3 ATS rush prior to that and were one of the best bets in the nation.
2009 Emerald Bowl Predictions
I am starting to get the feeling that this game is going to go similarly to the Boston College-USC game played last week. In that game we had another team (USC) that was used to playing in BCS games and playing for national championships that was forced to “slum it” against a group that really overachieved (Boston College) this season. Well, everyone completely overrated the “motivation” aspect of the game and the Trojans managed to cover the spread in their double-digit win.
I am starting to get the feeling that this could be a similar situation. The majority of the bets are coming in on Stanford, yet the line continues to climb. There is a clear reverse line movement and we have a situation where there isn’t a clear-cut “underdog” in the minds of the players and coaches.
If Oklahoma can stop Stanford early and put some points on the board they may be able to take Gerhart out of the game and put the pressure on Tavita Pritchard. We’ve seen how that ends.
ROBERT FERRINGO
2009 Sun Bowl Odds and Predictions
Last year at this time Oklahoma was prepping for a National Championship Game and ready to go pimping in Miami. Now they are tuning up for the Sun Bowl in sweet El Paso.
What a difference a year makes, eh?
Oklahoma will match up with No. 21 Stanford at 2 p.m. on Thursday, Dec. 31 in the Sun Bowl. The Sooners are presently 10-point favorites in this game despite the fact that they are the unranked team. The total is 55.5.
This has clearly been a disappointing season for the Sooners, who started the year in the Top 5. But five losses later they find themselves slumming it in El Paso.
Stanford, on the other hand, has been one of college football’s pleasant surprises. They finished No. 2 in the Pac-10 and managed an impressive 8-4 record just three years after posting a pathetic 1-11 mark. Their record this year includes big wins over USC and Oregon.
Stanford’s top gun is Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart. The senior running back led the nation in rushing yards (1,736) and rushing touchdowns (26). However, the big news for the Cardinal is the status of starting quarterback Andrew Luck. The freshman has a broken finger and is considered doubtful to start the game. However, he has been practicing and there is an increasing chance that he might play.
This game is on a neutral site and it pits a pair of terrible road teams against one another. Besides their win at USC, Stanford went just 1-3 ATS on the road this season. They lost at Arizona, at Oregon State and at Wake Forest, and just three of their last 10 games were away from home. Oklahoma was even worse. They went 1-4 ATS away from home and lost games at Texas Tech, at Nebraska, at Miami and in a neutral site game against BYU.
Here is a deeper view into this game:
Motivation
We’re starting to get into the more serious bowl games with the upper-level teams, so motivation is becoming less and less of a problem. But 10-cent psychology here suggests that Stanford will be more motivated here because Oklahoma has no interest in this bowl game.
I don’t agree. They are playing a Top 25 team (OU is outside the Top 25) and this is a chance for another season-salvaging victory. We’ve already seen teams like USC, Pittsburgh and Clemson shrug off late-season disappointments to win their bowl games and score covers (that trio went 2-1 against the spread). Oklahoma has actually lost five of its last six bowl games outright and you know that Bob Stoops is going to have his boys ready to play.
This is Stanford’s first bowl game since 2001 and they are looking for their first bowl win since a victory in the Sun Bowl back in 1996. That makes this game exciting for the program, but they don’t have nearly the motivation of a team like SMU, which hadn’t been to a bowl game in 25 years.
Matchups
The key to this game is clearly going to be Stanford’s rushing game (No. 11 with 224 yards per game) against Oklahoma’s rushing defense (No. 7 at 88 yards per game). Overall, the Cardinal are No. 13 in total offense while the Sooners are No. 7 in total defense. If Luck can’t go then OU should be able to stack up and try to shut down Gerhart.
Also, the Sooners are fifth in the country in sacks, averaging three per game. Stanford’s offensive line is second in the nation, allowing only a half-sack per game.
On the other side, Stanford’s passing defense has been awful (No. 105 at 252 yards allowed per game) while Oklahoma’s bread-and-butter this year has been its passing game (No. 17 at 278 ypg). Oklahoma has been mediocre with its rushing game (No. 69 at 141 ypg) and faces an equally mediocre Stanford rush defense (No. 61 at 141). That tells me that OU should be able to have its way with the Stanford defense all around. And with so much attention going to whether or not Oklahoma can stop Gerhart, maybe the question should be whether or not Stanford can stop OU.
Line Value and 2009 Sun Bowl Odds
The line on this game opened around -7 or -8 and has since shot up to -10. However, about 75 percent of all of the action on this game is coming in on Stanford, making Oklahoma a disrespected favorite.
The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games, all of which they were favored in. Oklahoma is also just 2-5 ATS as a favorite playing on a neutral site. However, they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games against the Pac-10.
Stanford is a mere 2-5 ATS in its last seven nonconference games and failed to cover their last two games to close the regular season. However, prior to that they were on a sweet 7-3 ATS rush prior to that and were one of the best bets in the nation.
2009 Emerald Bowl Predictions
I am starting to get the feeling that this game is going to go similarly to the Boston College-USC game played last week. In that game we had another team (USC) that was used to playing in BCS games and playing for national championships that was forced to “slum it” against a group that really overachieved (Boston College) this season. Well, everyone completely overrated the “motivation” aspect of the game and the Trojans managed to cover the spread in their double-digit win.
I am starting to get the feeling that this could be a similar situation. The majority of the bets are coming in on Stanford, yet the line continues to climb. There is a clear reverse line movement and we have a situation where there isn’t a clear-cut “underdog” in the minds of the players and coaches.
If Oklahoma can stop Stanford early and put some points on the board they may be able to take Gerhart out of the game and put the pressure on Tavita Pritchard. We’ve seen how that ends.
