DR BOB
Illinois 32 Baylor (-1.0) 31 (at Texas Bowl)
03:00 PM Pacific, 29-Dec-10
Baylor has a crowd advantage with this game being played in Houston, but I’ll lean slightly with Illinois to get the win. The Illini are led by freshman quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, who posted overall bad numbers (5.2 yards per pass play against Division 1A teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback), but Scheelhaase has relatively good against bad defensive teams and horrendous against good defenses. Scheelhaase was just 0.1 yppp worse than average against the 3 bad pass defenses that he faced (7.5 yppp against Indiana, Michigan, and Minnesota – who would combine to allow 7.6 yppp to an average QB) and the Illini scored an average of 47 points in those 3 games. Baylor allowed 6.8 yppp this season to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 6.0 yppp against an average team, so Scheelhaase should put up decent numbers while the very strong Illini rushing attack (262 yards per game at 5.7 yards per rushing play) moves the chains with regularity against a sub-par Bears’ defensive front that gave up 5.0 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 4.7 yprp against an average defense. My math model projects 272 rushing yards at 5.9 yprp and 424 total yards at 5.9 yppl for the Illini in this game, which should result in over 30 points.
Baylor is more than capable of keeping up with veteran dual threat quarterback Robert Griffin III leading the Bears’ attack. Baylor also has a great running back in Jay Finley, who ran for 1155 yards at 6.3 ypr. Overall the Bears averaged and impressive 482 total yards at 6.7 yppl against a tougher than average schedule of Division 1A teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Illinois’ defense is 0.2 yppl better than average for the season (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team), which is the exact level of average defense that Baylor faced this season. The Bears averaged 32.5 points in their 1A games and they should be around that number in this game with my math model predicting 439 yards at 6.7 yppl.
While Baylor is a clearly better on a yards per play basis (6.7 yppl to 5.9 yppl for Illinois predicted in this game), the Bears are not likely to run as many plays and Illinois is much better in special teams. Special teams is why Illinois was much more efficient with their yardage, out-scoring the opponents by 5.6 points per game despite having just a 30 total yards per game edge. Baylor, meanwhile, out-gained their opponents by 33 yards per game but had just a +0.2 point differential. Overall my math model favors Baylor by 1 point, which is what the line is on this game, but I’m going to lean with Illinois on the basis of a 41-18-1 ATS bowl angle that is based on their superior defense. I’ll lean with Illinois at +1 or more and I have no opinion on the total.
Illinois 32 Baylor (-1.0) 31 (at Texas Bowl)
03:00 PM Pacific, 29-Dec-10
Baylor has a crowd advantage with this game being played in Houston, but I’ll lean slightly with Illinois to get the win. The Illini are led by freshman quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, who posted overall bad numbers (5.2 yards per pass play against Division 1A teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback), but Scheelhaase has relatively good against bad defensive teams and horrendous against good defenses. Scheelhaase was just 0.1 yppp worse than average against the 3 bad pass defenses that he faced (7.5 yppp against Indiana, Michigan, and Minnesota – who would combine to allow 7.6 yppp to an average QB) and the Illini scored an average of 47 points in those 3 games. Baylor allowed 6.8 yppp this season to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 6.0 yppp against an average team, so Scheelhaase should put up decent numbers while the very strong Illini rushing attack (262 yards per game at 5.7 yards per rushing play) moves the chains with regularity against a sub-par Bears’ defensive front that gave up 5.0 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 4.7 yprp against an average defense. My math model projects 272 rushing yards at 5.9 yprp and 424 total yards at 5.9 yppl for the Illini in this game, which should result in over 30 points.
Baylor is more than capable of keeping up with veteran dual threat quarterback Robert Griffin III leading the Bears’ attack. Baylor also has a great running back in Jay Finley, who ran for 1155 yards at 6.3 ypr. Overall the Bears averaged and impressive 482 total yards at 6.7 yppl against a tougher than average schedule of Division 1A teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Illinois’ defense is 0.2 yppl better than average for the season (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team), which is the exact level of average defense that Baylor faced this season. The Bears averaged 32.5 points in their 1A games and they should be around that number in this game with my math model predicting 439 yards at 6.7 yppl.
While Baylor is a clearly better on a yards per play basis (6.7 yppl to 5.9 yppl for Illinois predicted in this game), the Bears are not likely to run as many plays and Illinois is much better in special teams. Special teams is why Illinois was much more efficient with their yardage, out-scoring the opponents by 5.6 points per game despite having just a 30 total yards per game edge. Baylor, meanwhile, out-gained their opponents by 33 yards per game but had just a +0.2 point differential. Overall my math model favors Baylor by 1 point, which is what the line is on this game, but I’m going to lean with Illinois on the basis of a 41-18-1 ATS bowl angle that is based on their superior defense. I’ll lean with Illinois at +1 or more and I have no opinion on the total.
Cleveland Insider
NHL
3* New Jersey +1.5
1* San Jose -130
NBA
1* Golden State +10 (buy 3 points)
2* Cleveland +10 (buy 3)
1* Lakers ML-160
1* Sacramento +7 (buy 3)
NCAAB
2* Jacksonville State +20.5 (buy 3)
1* Tennessee -25.5 (buy 3)
1* Texas Tech +5.5 (buy 3)
1* Northern Colorado +4 (buy 3)
3* system
NHL
3* New Jersey +1.5
1* San Jose -130
NBA
1* Golden State +10 (buy 3 points)
2* Cleveland +10 (buy 3)
1* Lakers ML-160
1* Sacramento +7 (buy 3)
NCAAB
2* Jacksonville State +20.5 (buy 3)
1* Tennessee -25.5 (buy 3)
1* Texas Tech +5.5 (buy 3)
1* Northern Colorado +4 (buy 3)
3* system
Mr A
NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 2:30 p.m. est.
Military Bowl
East Carolina (6-6) vs. Maryland (8-4)
RFK Stadium - Washington, D.C.
Maryland Terrapins -7½
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 6:00 p.m. est.
Texas Bowl
Illinois (6-6) vs. Baylor (7-5)
Reliant Stadium - Houston, Texas
Baylor Bears -1
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 9:00 p.m. est.
Valero Alamo Bowl
(16) Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5)
Alamodome- San Antonio, Texas
Oklahoma State Cowboys -4½
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 7:00 p.m. est.
Golden State Warriors (12-18) at Atlanta Hawks (20-13)
Atlanta Hawks -6½
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 8:00 p.m. est.
New Jersey Nets (9-22) at Oklahoma City Thunder (21-11)
New Jersey Netsr +10
NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 2:30 p.m. est.
Military Bowl
East Carolina (6-6) vs. Maryland (8-4)
RFK Stadium - Washington, D.C.
Maryland Terrapins -7½
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 6:00 p.m. est.
Texas Bowl
Illinois (6-6) vs. Baylor (7-5)
Reliant Stadium - Houston, Texas
Baylor Bears -1
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 9:00 p.m. est.
Valero Alamo Bowl
(16) Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5)
Alamodome- San Antonio, Texas
Oklahoma State Cowboys -4½
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 7:00 p.m. est.
Golden State Warriors (12-18) at Atlanta Hawks (20-13)
Atlanta Hawks -6½
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 8:00 p.m. est.
New Jersey Nets (9-22) at Oklahoma City Thunder (21-11)
New Jersey Netsr +10
Gina
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 8:00 p.m. est.
Denver Nuggets (17-13) at Minnesota Timberwolves (8-24)
Denver has dominated Minnesota. The Nuggets have won 13 of the last 14 contests versus the struggling Timberwolves and six straight at Minnesota. In spite of this, The Timberwolves have won their last two games and will face the shorthanded Nuggets. Denver will be without Forward Carmelo Anthony and Al Harrington. Go with the Timberwolves to grab a rare win at home against the Nuggets. Denver has lost their last three games away from home and is a dreadful 4-10 on the road this season.
Minnesota Timberwolves -2
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 8:00 p.m. est.
Denver Nuggets (17-13) at Minnesota Timberwolves (8-24)
Denver has dominated Minnesota. The Nuggets have won 13 of the last 14 contests versus the struggling Timberwolves and six straight at Minnesota. In spite of this, The Timberwolves have won their last two games and will face the shorthanded Nuggets. Denver will be without Forward Carmelo Anthony and Al Harrington. Go with the Timberwolves to grab a rare win at home against the Nuggets. Denver has lost their last three games away from home and is a dreadful 4-10 on the road this season.
Minnesota Timberwolves -2
Johnny Guild
College Bowl Games
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 2:30 PM EST
Military Bowl
East Carolina Pirates (6-6) vs. Maryland Terrapins (8-4)
RFK Stadium - Washington, D.C.
Bowl Records: East Carolina (5-6)
Maryland (10-11-2)
Maryland Terrapins -7.5
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 6:00 PM EST
Texas Bowl
Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) vs. Baylor Bears (7-5)
Reliant Stadium - Houston, Texas
Bowl Records: Illinois (6-9)
Baylor (8-8)
Baylor Bears -PK
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 9:00 PM EST
Alamo Bowl
(16) Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) vs. Arizona Wildcats (7-5)
Alamodome - San Antonio, Texas
Bowl Records: Oklahoma State (12-8 - 0-2 in Alamo Bowl)
Arizona (6-8-1)
Oklahoma State Cowboys -4.5
NBA BASKETBALL
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 10:30 PM EST
Utah Jazz (21-10) at Los Angeles Clippers (10-22)
The Clippers appear to be getting their shit together, but beating the hot Jazz is a big assignment. The Clippers have lost nine of the last 10 meetingsagainst the Jazz, including twice this season. Look for Utah to outscore Los Angeles in a close high scoring battle. Los Angeles is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games versus Utah, 2-4 ATS in their last 6 at home.
Utah Jazz -2
0ver -195
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 7:00 PM EST
Bradley Braves (6-5) at Indiana St. Sycamores (5-6)
Indiana St. Sycamores -4.5
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 7:00 PM EST
Furman Paladins (8-2) at No. 21 Central Florida Golden Knights (11-0)
Furman Paladins +13
Tuesday, December 28th, 2010 9:00 PM EST.
Marquette Golden Eagles (9-3) at (24) Vanderbilt Commodores (9-2)
Vanderbilt Commodores -7
College Bowl Games
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 2:30 PM EST
Military Bowl
East Carolina Pirates (6-6) vs. Maryland Terrapins (8-4)
RFK Stadium - Washington, D.C.
Bowl Records: East Carolina (5-6)
Maryland (10-11-2)
Maryland Terrapins -7.5
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 6:00 PM EST
Texas Bowl
Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) vs. Baylor Bears (7-5)
Reliant Stadium - Houston, Texas
Bowl Records: Illinois (6-9)
Baylor (8-8)
Baylor Bears -PK
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 9:00 PM EST
Alamo Bowl
(16) Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) vs. Arizona Wildcats (7-5)
Alamodome - San Antonio, Texas
Bowl Records: Oklahoma State (12-8 - 0-2 in Alamo Bowl)
Arizona (6-8-1)
Oklahoma State Cowboys -4.5
NBA BASKETBALL
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 10:30 PM EST
Utah Jazz (21-10) at Los Angeles Clippers (10-22)
The Clippers appear to be getting their shit together, but beating the hot Jazz is a big assignment. The Clippers have lost nine of the last 10 meetingsagainst the Jazz, including twice this season. Look for Utah to outscore Los Angeles in a close high scoring battle. Los Angeles is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games versus Utah, 2-4 ATS in their last 6 at home.
Utah Jazz -2
0ver -195
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 7:00 PM EST
Bradley Braves (6-5) at Indiana St. Sycamores (5-6)
Indiana St. Sycamores -4.5
Wednesday, December 29th, 2010 7:00 PM EST
Furman Paladins (8-2) at No. 21 Central Florida Golden Knights (11-0)
Furman Paladins +13
Tuesday, December 28th, 2010 9:00 PM EST.
Marquette Golden Eagles (9-3) at (24) Vanderbilt Commodores (9-2)
Vanderbilt Commodores -7
