Joseph D'Amico
Here are my FREE OPINIONS on some of the Bowl games;
The Pointsettia Bowl. Take Utah over Cal.
The Hawaii Bowl. Take the OVER.
The Emerald Bowl. Take USC over BC.
The Music City Bowl. take Clemson over Kentucky.
The Sun Bowl. Take Oklahoma over Stanford.
The Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Take Virginia Tech over Tennessee.
The Cotton Bowl. Take the OVER.
The Fiesta Bowl. take the OVER.
The Orange Bowl. take Iowa over GT.
Here are my FREE OPINIONS on some of the Bowl games;
The Pointsettia Bowl. Take Utah over Cal.
The Hawaii Bowl. Take the OVER.
The Emerald Bowl. Take USC over BC.
The Music City Bowl. take Clemson over Kentucky.
The Sun Bowl. Take Oklahoma over Stanford.
The Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Take Virginia Tech over Tennessee.
The Cotton Bowl. Take the OVER.
The Fiesta Bowl. take the OVER.
The Orange Bowl. take Iowa over GT.
Lenny Del Genio
| NBA Total
free pick 704 NJN / 703 MIN Under 200.0 sportbet
Analysis:
10* Play Under Minnesota/New Jersey at 7:35 ET. Lenny spent years working on an NBA "totals system" and began using it in January '07 on the net, with great success. It's based on numerous factors, some of them listed here. Anticipated pace and style of both teams' play. Days of rest for teams or lack of it. Number of points scored by starters as compared to subs in recent outings (plus season-long averages). It also factors in point and rebounding differentials of the two teams. With all these factors (and many more), it's not possible to provide Lenny's "typical analysis" with his NBA totals selections. However, after last year's success, he anticipates another banner year. Play are rated 10* (Game of Day), 15* (Game of Week), 20* (Game of Month) and some rare 25* plays. Good luck. Take Under Minnesota/New Jersey at 7:35 ET.
| NBA Total
free pick 704 NJN / 703 MIN Under 200.0 sportbet
Analysis:
10* Play Under Minnesota/New Jersey at 7:35 ET. Lenny spent years working on an NBA "totals system" and began using it in January '07 on the net, with great success. It's based on numerous factors, some of them listed here. Anticipated pace and style of both teams' play. Days of rest for teams or lack of it. Number of points scored by starters as compared to subs in recent outings (plus season-long averages). It also factors in point and rebounding differentials of the two teams. With all these factors (and many more), it's not possible to provide Lenny's "typical analysis" with his NBA totals selections. However, after last year's success, he anticipates another banner year. Play are rated 10* (Game of Day), 15* (Game of Week), 20* (Game of Month) and some rare 25* plays. Good luck. Take Under Minnesota/New Jersey at 7:35 ET.
VEGAS RUNNER
NBA "TRUE STEAM" for WED 12-23-09 :
1.) SA SPURS opened -8.5....Now -11
As I mentioned above, when those books that usually offer the first lines for games opened this one up...they all went ahead and put it out at 8.5...Because when the "very" first book (CRIS) opened their line at 8.5 and got no action from the Wiseguys, everyone else felt safe following their lead...And as of late last night, the most we saw in terms of movement...was a slight 1/2 point adjustment, to 9...Which is where the Vegas books opened the game...And we all know that these books here in Vegas, are usually the LAST to offer a betting line because they don't wany ANY Wiseguy money at all...So as of this morning, we were seeing some books still at 8.5...while others went ahead and offered the game at 9...And that's when things got hectic, and the Outfits sent the books scrambling to get it right...Because until they do, more times than not...these Betting Syndicates are going to punish them for it...And when the books do make that mistake of over-adjusting, the Wiseguys will try and punish them some more by trying to work a "middle"...For this bet, the Outfits went ahead and laid -9...then -9.5...and then went on to even lay -10 on the SPURS...And that forced the adjustment up to 11...Which is where the line is as I write this...VR
LINE PREDICTION : It's obvious to me, after speaking to a couple of runners who work for different Outfits...that the Wiseguys got more than enough money down at the numbers they wanted...And they took a very significant "position" on this game, which was based on "Line Value"...and "Handicapping"...Now usually when this is the case, what we will see next...is an attempt at a "Middle"...Which usually comes in the afternoon, if the Outfits don't think the "public" will help their cause...Other times, when the public bettors are able to help out...the Wiseguys will wait until very close to game-time...I believe that in this spot, the "middle" will come sooner than that, because I can't see the public bettors in any rush to lay double-digits with the Spurs, which would have helped move this line even higher...This is why I won't be surprised at all to see it come back down to 10.5 or even 10 by tip-off...With that said, if we do see this line go up above -11...then you can be 100% sure that the Outfits see this as a HUGE opportunity to get the BEST OF IT...Because a move like that would mean it is based even more on their handicapp, than on a difference of opinion on the line...Usually, when it's only based on the "line"...we will see the number get to where the Outfits think it should be, which usually happens pretty quickly after the lines are offered...And as soon as it's adjusted to that number, they back off for good...So my advice is to continue monitoring this line because most likely, we will see it come back down to 10/10.5...And I still believe there is betting value there...Otherwise, we will see this go up even higher...in which case, believe it or not...I would be even more confident to lay the points...VR
NBA "TRUE STEAM" for WED 12-23-09 :
1.) SA SPURS opened -8.5....Now -11
As I mentioned above, when those books that usually offer the first lines for games opened this one up...they all went ahead and put it out at 8.5...Because when the "very" first book (CRIS) opened their line at 8.5 and got no action from the Wiseguys, everyone else felt safe following their lead...And as of late last night, the most we saw in terms of movement...was a slight 1/2 point adjustment, to 9...Which is where the Vegas books opened the game...And we all know that these books here in Vegas, are usually the LAST to offer a betting line because they don't wany ANY Wiseguy money at all...So as of this morning, we were seeing some books still at 8.5...while others went ahead and offered the game at 9...And that's when things got hectic, and the Outfits sent the books scrambling to get it right...Because until they do, more times than not...these Betting Syndicates are going to punish them for it...And when the books do make that mistake of over-adjusting, the Wiseguys will try and punish them some more by trying to work a "middle"...For this bet, the Outfits went ahead and laid -9...then -9.5...and then went on to even lay -10 on the SPURS...And that forced the adjustment up to 11...Which is where the line is as I write this...VR
LINE PREDICTION : It's obvious to me, after speaking to a couple of runners who work for different Outfits...that the Wiseguys got more than enough money down at the numbers they wanted...And they took a very significant "position" on this game, which was based on "Line Value"...and "Handicapping"...Now usually when this is the case, what we will see next...is an attempt at a "Middle"...Which usually comes in the afternoon, if the Outfits don't think the "public" will help their cause...Other times, when the public bettors are able to help out...the Wiseguys will wait until very close to game-time...I believe that in this spot, the "middle" will come sooner than that, because I can't see the public bettors in any rush to lay double-digits with the Spurs, which would have helped move this line even higher...This is why I won't be surprised at all to see it come back down to 10.5 or even 10 by tip-off...With that said, if we do see this line go up above -11...then you can be 100% sure that the Outfits see this as a HUGE opportunity to get the BEST OF IT...Because a move like that would mean it is based even more on their handicapp, than on a difference of opinion on the line...Usually, when it's only based on the "line"...we will see the number get to where the Outfits think it should be, which usually happens pretty quickly after the lines are offered...And as soon as it's adjusted to that number, they back off for good...So my advice is to continue monitoring this line because most likely, we will see it come back down to 10/10.5...And I still believe there is betting value there...Otherwise, we will see this go up even higher...in which case, believe it or not...I would be even more confident to lay the points...VR
FREDDY WILLS
Old Dominion -7.5
4-Dime POD
This is one of those games where the public money is flying in on the under dog for no good reason. Sure Charlotte is scoring lots of points and they are winning easily on their way to a 9-1 record. But a close look shows us they are playing lame defenses and although they are #76 in the RPI their competition and strength of schedule is significantly worse than Old Dominion who has faced an opponent with a .591 win% while Charlotte's opponents have a .377 win %. Looking over the defenses they have faced it has not been impressive. The overall strength of schedule is more than 100 point difference.
We looked into it further and we saw a road game last year for Old Dominion (they are home tonight) where they flat out dominated the game +13 rebound margin and held Charlotte to 41.7% shooting. They dominated on the perimeter shooting 50% from three. Overall they only shot 43%, but what made it a 1 point game and win after leading by 1 at half time was turnovers which they committed 18 and FTA they got to the line 6 less times and Charlotte was basically perfect from the charity stripe. Those two factors are going to be different here tonight.
First off Old Dominion a favorite to win their conference got their poor performance play out of the play when they played some top talent teams hence the strength of schedule they have regrouped and should be able to make a push for the conference title. They are #1 in the nation in points allowed, and #50 in FG% defense as well as #18 in 3PT% defense. This is going to be a wake up call for Charlotte who has not faced competition like this except their only loss to Duke by 42 points. At home ODU has a +8.1 rebound margin and that's against strong opponents while they also have a significant FTA advantage as opponents are just getting their 11.4 times. That will really hurt Charlotte's PPG on the road because they rely on 24 attempts. They only shoot 41% on the road and again against a strength of schedule that is poor to say the least. Now they go into Old Dominion where they won't win the rebound margin they most likely will shoot at a lower FG and 3PT% and that turnover battle they won a year ago they will lose here tonight. Old Dominion is +3.8 TO margin at home while Charlotte is -5.5 TO margin on the road and again that's against poor talent. Old Dominion #39 in the RPI is the best team other than Duke that this team has played. Oh also ODU is grabbing 14.4 offensive rebounds at home, when they miss they'll be getting many 2nd chance points.
Old Dominion -7.5
4-Dime POD
This is one of those games where the public money is flying in on the under dog for no good reason. Sure Charlotte is scoring lots of points and they are winning easily on their way to a 9-1 record. But a close look shows us they are playing lame defenses and although they are #76 in the RPI their competition and strength of schedule is significantly worse than Old Dominion who has faced an opponent with a .591 win% while Charlotte's opponents have a .377 win %. Looking over the defenses they have faced it has not been impressive. The overall strength of schedule is more than 100 point difference.
We looked into it further and we saw a road game last year for Old Dominion (they are home tonight) where they flat out dominated the game +13 rebound margin and held Charlotte to 41.7% shooting. They dominated on the perimeter shooting 50% from three. Overall they only shot 43%, but what made it a 1 point game and win after leading by 1 at half time was turnovers which they committed 18 and FTA they got to the line 6 less times and Charlotte was basically perfect from the charity stripe. Those two factors are going to be different here tonight.
First off Old Dominion a favorite to win their conference got their poor performance play out of the play when they played some top talent teams hence the strength of schedule they have regrouped and should be able to make a push for the conference title. They are #1 in the nation in points allowed, and #50 in FG% defense as well as #18 in 3PT% defense. This is going to be a wake up call for Charlotte who has not faced competition like this except their only loss to Duke by 42 points. At home ODU has a +8.1 rebound margin and that's against strong opponents while they also have a significant FTA advantage as opponents are just getting their 11.4 times. That will really hurt Charlotte's PPG on the road because they rely on 24 attempts. They only shoot 41% on the road and again against a strength of schedule that is poor to say the least. Now they go into Old Dominion where they won't win the rebound margin they most likely will shoot at a lower FG and 3PT% and that turnover battle they won a year ago they will lose here tonight. Old Dominion is +3.8 TO margin at home while Charlotte is -5.5 TO margin on the road and again that's against poor talent. Old Dominion #39 in the RPI is the best team other than Duke that this team has played. Oh also ODU is grabbing 14.4 offensive rebounds at home, when they miss they'll be getting many 2nd chance points.
THE DUKE SPORTS
Utah (+3) for 1.5 Units
The Mountain West Conference hasn't gotten respect from the oddsmakers this bowl season however, they're 2-0 SU/ATS and should continue their run tonight. Like we did yesterday, we'll grab a bowl team higher ranked than their opponent. Utah, ranked #23, sports a perfect 8-0 SU mark in bowls since 1999. The Utes are good late season finishers and despite its youth in a lot of areas, including QB,they play well together as a team. And defensively have been ball hawking (15 INT) and do some nice things defensively to confuse opposing QBs. The Bears, however, have not played the favorite role well (1-4 ATS) and sport a 3-4 ATS mark vs the MWC under Tedford. The Bears got blasted at Washington in their last game and although they've shown resilience at times, we'll fade them in this spot. Utah is 8-0 ATS as dogs vs an opponent off a double digit SU loss.
Utah (+3) for 1.5 Units
The Mountain West Conference hasn't gotten respect from the oddsmakers this bowl season however, they're 2-0 SU/ATS and should continue their run tonight. Like we did yesterday, we'll grab a bowl team higher ranked than their opponent. Utah, ranked #23, sports a perfect 8-0 SU mark in bowls since 1999. The Utes are good late season finishers and despite its youth in a lot of areas, including QB,they play well together as a team. And defensively have been ball hawking (15 INT) and do some nice things defensively to confuse opposing QBs. The Bears, however, have not played the favorite role well (1-4 ATS) and sport a 3-4 ATS mark vs the MWC under Tedford. The Bears got blasted at Washington in their last game and although they've shown resilience at times, we'll fade them in this spot. Utah is 8-0 ATS as dogs vs an opponent off a double digit SU loss.
Dwayne Bryant
Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns - 9:05 p.m. ET Bet: #718 Phoenix Suns -9
Just a tough spot for the Thunder tonight. Oklahoma City is coming off a hard-fought game last night at Staples Center, losing by just three points to the Lakers as 10-point road dogs. So this marks the second road game in as many nights and now they get to travel to Phoenix to take on a Suns team that will run them up and down the court for a full 48 minutes. No doubt in my mind that tired legs will be a factor for the Thunder in the second half of this game. And with Phoenix coming off their first home loss of the season in embarrassing fashion (109-91) to Cleveland, you can expect the Suns to play with a ton of energy and focus tonight. The Suns are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and the situation dictates more of the same tonight. I see a 15-point win for the Suns, so lay the points with Phoenix as my NBA Game of the Week play
Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns - 9:05 p.m. ET Bet: #718 Phoenix Suns -9
Just a tough spot for the Thunder tonight. Oklahoma City is coming off a hard-fought game last night at Staples Center, losing by just three points to the Lakers as 10-point road dogs. So this marks the second road game in as many nights and now they get to travel to Phoenix to take on a Suns team that will run them up and down the court for a full 48 minutes. No doubt in my mind that tired legs will be a factor for the Thunder in the second half of this game. And with Phoenix coming off their first home loss of the season in embarrassing fashion (109-91) to Cleveland, you can expect the Suns to play with a ton of energy and focus tonight. The Suns are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and the situation dictates more of the same tonight. I see a 15-point win for the Suns, so lay the points with Phoenix as my NBA Game of the Week play
Win or Lose 12/23
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NCAA Football
Rot# Team Spread/Type Line Wager
209 Utah +3 -110 $8
National Football League
Rot# Team Spread/Type Line Wager
** No games this week
National Hockey League
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
52 Minn ML -150 $11
54 NY Rang ML -148 $5
55 Atl +1.5 -240 $6
55 Atl ML +138 $3 (11:55)
58 Wash ML -150 $5
62 NY Island ML -105 $13
64 Pitt ML -200 $13
66 TB ML -114 $5
69 Colum +1.5 -260 $11
69 Colum ML +134 $4
73 St Louis +1.5 -190 $10
73 St Louis ML +158 $4
National Basketball Association (Will be buying POINTS in NBA ONLY)
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
701 Hou +9 -108 $7
711 Wash +7.5 -102 $7
713 Port +11 -109 $14
717 Sac +6 -108 $5
720 Okla City +9 -105 $5
NCAA Basketball ( buying 2 points on each game ONLY WHEN POSTED)
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
738 L'Ville -20.5 -105 $6
739 Misissippi +10.5 -105 $7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAA Football
Rot# Team Spread/Type Line Wager
209 Utah +3 -110 $8
National Football League
Rot# Team Spread/Type Line Wager
** No games this week
National Hockey League
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
52 Minn ML -150 $11
54 NY Rang ML -148 $5
55 Atl +1.5 -240 $6
55 Atl ML +138 $3 (11:55)
58 Wash ML -150 $5
62 NY Island ML -105 $13
64 Pitt ML -200 $13
66 TB ML -114 $5
69 Colum +1.5 -260 $11
69 Colum ML +134 $4
73 St Louis +1.5 -190 $10
73 St Louis ML +158 $4
National Basketball Association (Will be buying POINTS in NBA ONLY)
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
701 Hou +9 -108 $7
711 Wash +7.5 -102 $7
713 Port +11 -109 $14
717 Sac +6 -108 $5
720 Okla City +9 -105 $5
NCAA Basketball ( buying 2 points on each game ONLY WHEN POSTED)
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
738 L'Ville -20.5 -105 $6
739 Misissippi +10.5 -105 $7
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
CALGARY FLAMES -175
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]St. Louis (16-14-5) moved out of last place in the Western Conference with a 3-1 victory at Vancouver on Sunday, then won 7-2 at Edmonton on Monday. That marked the Blues’ best offensive output since a 7-4 victory over Chicago on Jan. 12, 2004.
St. Louis picked up a rare home win last Tuesday, 4-3 over Calgary, as McDonald and Steen snapped respective goal droughts of 14 and 12 games.
However I'm expecting a "letdown" this evening in a building they've traditionally really struggled in.
It's true that St. Louis is 5-1 its last six on the road, but it always struggles against Calgary; 3-14 its last 17 vs. the Flames.
On the other side of the rink: The Flames (20-11-4) are coming off a 5-3 loss to Nashville at the Saddledome on Saturday, their first regulation defeat there since Nov. 19. Calgary has gone 1-3-1 since winning six of eight; I'm expecting a "bounce-back" this evening.
The Flames had a chance to win Saturday with the score tied at 3 after two periods, but allowed two third-period goals. That has been a common theme lately for Calgary, which was outscored 4-1 in the third during the last three games.
Kiprusoff was not in net against the Blues last week, but went 6-1-0 with a 1.84 goals-against average in his last seven home matchups with them.
Keep in mind though that Calgary is 7-1 its last eight vs. St. Louis at the Saddledome.
Bottom line: So with "revenge" on their minds off last Tuesday's loss, I expect a concerted effort from the Flames on both sides of the ice in front of the hometown crowd; look for CALGARY to improve to 4-1 (+2 units) when playing three or more days of rest and for St. Louis to fall to 1-8 (-9 units) after a win by two goals or more in its previous contest.
*7* FLAMES.[/FONT]
CALGARY FLAMES -175
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]St. Louis (16-14-5) moved out of last place in the Western Conference with a 3-1 victory at Vancouver on Sunday, then won 7-2 at Edmonton on Monday. That marked the Blues’ best offensive output since a 7-4 victory over Chicago on Jan. 12, 2004.
St. Louis picked up a rare home win last Tuesday, 4-3 over Calgary, as McDonald and Steen snapped respective goal droughts of 14 and 12 games.
However I'm expecting a "letdown" this evening in a building they've traditionally really struggled in.
It's true that St. Louis is 5-1 its last six on the road, but it always struggles against Calgary; 3-14 its last 17 vs. the Flames.
On the other side of the rink: The Flames (20-11-4) are coming off a 5-3 loss to Nashville at the Saddledome on Saturday, their first regulation defeat there since Nov. 19. Calgary has gone 1-3-1 since winning six of eight; I'm expecting a "bounce-back" this evening.
The Flames had a chance to win Saturday with the score tied at 3 after two periods, but allowed two third-period goals. That has been a common theme lately for Calgary, which was outscored 4-1 in the third during the last three games.
Kiprusoff was not in net against the Blues last week, but went 6-1-0 with a 1.84 goals-against average in his last seven home matchups with them.
Keep in mind though that Calgary is 7-1 its last eight vs. St. Louis at the Saddledome.
Bottom line: So with "revenge" on their minds off last Tuesday's loss, I expect a concerted effort from the Flames on both sides of the ice in front of the hometown crowd; look for CALGARY to improve to 4-1 (+2 units) when playing three or more days of rest and for St. Louis to fall to 1-8 (-9 units) after a win by two goals or more in its previous contest.
*7* FLAMES.[/FONT]
