Service Plays Wednesday 12/23/09

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DCI
Season
Straight Up: 287-108 (.727)
ATS: 222-182 (.550)

ORLANDO 99, Houston 94
DETROIT 99, Toronto 95
MIAMI 100, Utah 99
NEW JERSEY 100, Minnesota 96
MILWAUKEE 103, Washington 96
NEW ORLEANS 111, Golden State 103
SAN ANTONIO 93, Portland 91
DENVER 104, Atlanta 100
PHOENIX 111, Oklahoma City 102
Cleveland 105, SACRAMENTO 97
 
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NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP:

OVERALL: 2-1

2*:0-1
3*: 1-0
4*: 1-0


First meeting S/’03 (Cal leads series 4-2). This is UT’s 7th consec bowl and they have won their L/8 SU (longest streak in NCAA) while covering 6 of the L/7. LY UT busted the BCS for the 2nd time (beat Pitt in the ‘04 Fiesta) this time taking on Bama. Not only did they cover (+9’), they dominated building a 21-0 1Q lead and finishing w/a 349-208 yd edge in the upset. Whittingham is 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in bowls. This will mark Cal’s 7th consec bowl appearance, all under HC Tedford (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) but their goals were set much higher and they just squeaked into the P10 bowl affiliation. UT has 11 Sr’s among 17 upperclassmen starters while Cal has just 7 Sr sts among 15 upperclassmen. UT plyd 5 bowl elig tms going 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS being outscored 28-24 and outgained 329-302 in those while Cal went 4-3 SU/ATS despite being outscored (28-23) and outgained (393-353). Oreg was the only common opp that UT and Cal faced in ‘09 with UT dropping a 7 pt heartbreaker (outgained 312-297) while Cal was mauled by UO 42-3 (outgained 524-207).
After LY’s Sugar Bowl win UT lost production on both off and def incl Utah’s all-time winningest QB, Brian Johnson. JC QB Cain won the starting job and technically went 7-1 SU in his gms but was replaced at HT vs WY by True Fr QB Wynn, who sparked the 2H win. Including WY, Wynn has thrown for 991 yds (55%) w/a 5-3 ratio, going 2-2 in gms he has started and finished. UT was, once again, counting on a big yr from RB Asiata, but, once again, he was hurt, this time after 4 gms (brk leg in opener ‘08). Wide stepped up and since taking over as the feature back, has avg 107 ypg (5.8). He broke the schl rec’d w/6 consec 100 yd gms before being contained by TCU (25 yds) and SDSt (84 yds) but did record a 114 yd outing vs BYU. UT ran the “Asiata Formation” before his inj, but it has since been dubbed the “Shaky Formation” with most of Smithson’s rush yds coming out of the direct snap. WR Reed became just the 6th plyr in UT history w/1,000 yds rec in a ssn. The OL (two 1st Tm All-MWC players) avg 6’3” 300 with 1 Sr starter and has started 97% of the gms together. They have all’d 17 sks (4.6%) opening holes for 169 ypg rush (4.5). Overall the off ranks #57. The D comes in at #31. The DL has suffered thru some inj’s losing starter Shelby (knee) vs TCU while Eliapo has missed 5 gms with an eye inj, although he may return here (CS). The DL has recorded 17.5 of the tm’s 26 sks (67%). UT ranks #10 in our pass eff D all’g 173 ypg (50%) with an 11-15 ratio. With the emergence of Smithson, Matthews has not ret’d a P in the L/5 gms but still ranks #3 in the MWC avg 10.1 ypr. The PR D gives up 11.3 ypr and the KR D 21.3 ypr. K Vroman ranks #2 in the NCAA with 31 TB’s on KO’s. UT has our #40 ST’s unit.
The Cal off began the ssn on fire scoring over 50 pts in their 1st 2 gms (MD and EWU) but dropped the ball vs UO and USC putting up just a FG in each of those matchups as it once again looked to be another disappointing yr after building up high hopes early on. The tm rebounded to win 6 of their L/8 ending the yr avg 29 ppg and 399 ypg ranking #33 overall in our off ratings. QB Riley went as his tm went in ‘09 playing well in their wins and dismal in their defeats. RB’s Best and Vereen are the focus of the Cal off as they combined for 178 ttl ypg and 28 TD’s on the ssn. Best, however, missed the final 3 w/inj. His return here is ? as of this writing. Vereen stepped into the #1 role valiantly avg 148 ypg (5.0) over the final 3 keeping Cal afloat. The rec gm seems to have a new star each and every week with nobody separating from the pack. WR Jones is currently the only Cal plyr with more than 500 yds rec on the yr. The OL avg 6’4” 304 (1 Sr) paving the way for 4.8 ypc while they have all’d 27 sks (7.6%). The Cal def is ranked #42 all’g 24.5 ppg and 377 ypg but did go through a stretch in which they allowed more than 440 yds in 4 consec wks. The DL avg 6’3” 295 (1 Sr) running the only 3-4 scheme in the P10 and accounted for 17.5 of Cal’s 26 sks. The LB’s are led by Mike Mohamed who stepped into the forefront in ‘09 after being the #1 bkup at all 4 LB spots in ‘08 (leading tklr returning TY). The secondary has had its share of struggles but CB Thompson remained the only solid option again as he’s arguably the P10’s best CB. The unit all’d 259 ypg (63%) w/a 17-10 ratio on the yr ranking #81 in our pass def ratings. The KR unit struggled some w/o Best TY and while they fared well in PR’s (12.4), they struggled in P coverage all’g 12.2 ypr. Overall the unit finished with our #53 ranking TY.
Cal certainly looked disinterested in ssn finale vs UW, but Tedford has prepared them well as they’ve cashed 4 str bowls winning all by at least 6 pts each. UT has the nation’s longest streak winning 8 str bowls SU but a month ago prior to TCU, they thought they had a chance to win the conf before losing 2 of the L/3. This is also the same tm that was a BCS winner LY but is now led by a True Fr QB vs a quality BCS foe.

FORECAST: CALIFORNIA by 13 RATING: 3* CAL
 
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NC POWERPLAYS:

1-3 ( ALL WERE NO PLAYS RATING WISE )

PP calls this one right at the line showing Cal with a 3 pt win but gives Utah a 367-358 yd edge.
Cal is 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS in bowls under HC Tedford, but Utah has the nation’s longest bowl win streak
winning 8 in a row.
NO PLAY: CALIFORNIA 27 UTAH 24
 
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NELLYS GREENSHEET

OVERALL: 1-4

1*: 0-2
2*: 1-0
3*: 0-1
4*: 0-1


Kyle Whittingham is 4-0 in bowl games with just one ATS miss but after last year’s big win
over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl it might be tough to bring the same focus and energy to San
Diego and a lesser bowl game. It is also a disappointing end for California in a season that
started with great promise. Since losing badly in the Holiday Bowl in this same stadium in ’04,
California has gone 4-0 in bowl games as well, including wins over two Mountain West teams.
The regular season ended with great disappointment for both programs as Utah lost its main
rivalry game with BYU and California was blown out at Washington. The Washington loss
came on the heels of Cal’s rivalry win over Stanford as the Bears had played well late in the
season until that finale. The Bears played one of the tougher schedules in the nation in a very
good Pac-10, and the conference was extremely well represented in the bowls last season.
Utah’s offensive production dropped considerably since Jordan Wynn took over at QB and the
Utes have been a far less successful rushing team. The poor closing effort from the Cal
defense should leave a motivated squad entering the bowl game and the Bears won four road
games this season to put to rest a reputation as a team that only wins big games at home.
Utah’s record this season was built on success at home going 6-0 in Salt Lake City but
struggling away from home. The Utes own great historical numbers as underdogs but that
likely keeps this line in check against a hit-or-miss Cal team. Utah only beat one team with a
winning record and it took overtime to get it done so this is a suspect Utes squad that beat up
on a lot of marginal foes. The Mountain West had a great TCU team at the top of the
standings but the rest of the league was a disappointment this season and it will be tough for
Utah to make amends in this difficult bowl match-up. Cal certainly would have preferred a
bigger stage but facing a Utah team that has a national presence should help keep the Bears
motivated and ready to win. CALIFORNIA BY 7

RATING 2: California (-3) over Utah
RATING 1: ‘OVER’ (53) California/Utah
 
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LOGICAL APPROACH:

OVERALL: 4-4
SIDES: 2-2
TOTALS: 2-2

1 UNIT: 2-0
2 UNIT: 1-2
3 UNIT: 1-2



This is a second Pac 10 vs Mountain West matchup in two days. Cal is making a seventh straight
Bowl trip and are seeking a fifth straight win after splitting their first two Bowl trips under coach
Tedford. Cal has been considered a major disappointment in recent seasons because of regular
season collapses but they clearly come to play in Bowl games. Utah is also making a seventh
straight Bowl trip and the Utes are 6-0 in those 6 previous Bowls including last season's 31-17
Sugar Bowl win over Alabama that capped a perfect 13-0 season. This was to be a rebuilding
season but Utah finished 9-3 with losses at Oregon and at TCU prior to a season ending OT loss
at arch rival BYU. There are no noteworthy non-conference wins as their 3 such wins came against
non-Bowlers. Cal was 3-0 in non-Pac 10 play with a win at Bowl bound Minnesota. They lost all
but one of their key conference games (including 30-3 at home to USC) but their lone key win was
in "The Big Game" over arch rival Stanford on the road. Statistically the offenses are pretty even
on offense but Utah does have the better overall defensive stats. But that's a bit misleading in that
Cal has a better defense against the run while Utah has an outstanding pass defense. Both
offenses excel at protecting the football while both defenses are just average at creating them.
Both teams figure to be motivated to continue their Bowl winning streaks. Utah has won 6 of their
last 8 games against Pac10 foes since 2003 while Cal has won their last 5 games against MWC
foes, all since 2004. In each of the 5 wins Cal has scored at least 34 points. Cal RB Best is still
??? for this game although his backups performed reasonably well in his absence. This contest
handicaps fairly evenly with neither team having significant fundamental nor intangible edges.
Neither is there a coaching edge. The Pac 10 pedigree favors Cal and Utah, though happy to be
Bowling, can't be as motivated for this game as they were last season against 'Bama. This game
may well come down to the final drive and despite the fairly low number the points could come
into play. The forecast calls for Cal to win 30-28, making

UTAH a 1 Star Selection a

OVER a 3 Star Selection
 
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THE GOLDSHEET ( 2-2 IN BOWLS )


P*Utah 30 - California 28—Make no mistake, this is definitely not the same
Utah team that went undefeated last season, including a chest-puffing Sugar
Bowl beatdown of mighty Alabama to conclude that watershed campaign. Gone
is savvy sr. QB Brian Johnson (336 YP & 3 TDP vs. Tide). And 2009 found touted
juco Terrance Cain (11 TDP, 5 ints. in first 7 games) benched for the final month
of the regular campaign in favor of true frosh Jordan Wynn, who completed just
50% with 2 TDP & 2 interceptions during the final three games. The new QBs
struggled to develop a rapport with a rebuilt receiving corps that lost its top three
pass catchers from 2008, and top RB sr. Matt Asiata blew out his knee in the
fourth game of this season.
Still, while this year’s Utes might not the be the equal of last season’s seminal
squad (especially on offense), it wouldn’t be wise to dismiss their chances in
this matchup against explosive but erratic Pac-10 rep Cal. First, Utah is 8-0
straight up in bowl games over the last decade, and this is a typically wellcoached
& fundamentally-sound Ute side. Second, the sure-tackling Utah
defense (just 314 ypg) has held nine of 12 foes to 17 points or fewer (and is very
familiar with Cal o.c. Andy Ludwig, who held the same post with the Utes in the
previous 4 seasons). Plus, despite the frequent fits & starts that plagued the
attack this season, Utah does have a ground hammer in hard-charging jr. RB Eddie
Wide (1032 YR on 5.7 ypc, 13 TDs), a go-to WR in sure-handed sr. David Reed (75
catches for 1085 yards), and an accurate PK in jr. Joe Phillips (17 of 19 FGs).
We acknowledge the superior big-play potential of the Bears. Even if oftinjured
star RB Jahvid Best (check status; missed last 3 games with severe
concussion) is limited or still unable to play, speedy soph backup Shane Vereen
is a more than capable pinch hitter, racking up 1545 YR & 17 TDs the last couple
of years. Jr. QB Kevin Riley has played with more poise this season, and Cal
owns four straight bowl victories of its own. Still, with the Bears frequently
failing to maintain their shaky defensive resolve, prefer to back the less
dynamic but more reliable Utes.
 
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Marc lawrence college bowl stat report ( 4-0 in bowl games thus far)

2009 bowl stat projection
california by 3
 
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STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET

OVERAL: 2-2

** Poinsettia Bowl - Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA
(209) UTAH vs. (210) CALIFORNIA

Play: Utah
 
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NBA DUNKEL


Portland at San Antonio
The Blazers look to build on their 9-2 ATS record in their last 11 games when playing with 0 days of rest. Portland is the pick (+10) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by only 6. Dunkel Pick: Portland (+10). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 23

Game 701-702: Houston at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 117.743; Orlando 126.241
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 8 1/2; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 8; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-8); Over

Game 703-704: Minnesota at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 112.556; New Jersey 108.865
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey by 3; 200
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Over

Game 705-706: Toronto at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 113.534; Detroit 116.307
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 3; 190
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 707-708: Utah at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 119.683; Miami 123.180
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 3 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2); Over

Game 709-710: Golden State at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 109.538; New Orleans 120.839
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 9; 212
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-9); Under

Game 711-712: Washington at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 113.860; Milwaukee 120.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 7; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 7 1/2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7 1/2); Under

Game 713-714: Portland at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 119.344; San Antonio 125.109
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 188
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 10; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+10); Over

Game 715-716: Atlanta at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 123.310; Denver 125.382
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 2; 225
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 717-718: Oklahoma City at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 117.375; Phoenix 122.636
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 5 1/2; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 9; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+9); Under

Game 719-720: Cleveland at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.145; Sacramento 116.167
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 7; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 5 1/2; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-5 1/2); Over
 
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NCAAB DUNKEL


Mississippi at West Virginia
The Rebels look to build on their 9-4 ATS record in their last 13 games as an underdog. Mississippi is the pick (+11) according to Dunkel, which has West Virginia favored by only 9. Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+11). Here are all of today's games.

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 23

Game 721-722: Harvard at Georgetown
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 60.552; Georgetown 72.615
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 12
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+13 1/2)

Game 723-724: Long Beach State at Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 56.289; Kentucky 78.668
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-20 1/2)

Game 725-726: Fordham at James Madison
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 40.477; James Madison 52.807
Dunkel Line: James Madison by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: James Madison by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: James Madison (-11 1/2)

Game 727-728: Massachusetts at Boston College
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 56.695; Boston College 65.018
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston College by 12
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (+12)

Game 729-730: Florida Atlantic at Georgia
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 47.083; Georgia 60.995
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 14
Vegas Line: Georgia by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-9 1/2)

Game 731-732: Delaware at Villanova
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 43.119; Villanova 75.901
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 33
Vegas Line: Villanova by 29
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-29)

Game 733-734: Charlotte at Old Dominion
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 66.760; Old Dominion 67.214
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+7 1/2)

Game 735-736: Miami (OH) at Xavier
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 53.961; Xavier 73.379
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Xavier by 15
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-15)

Game 737-738: UL-Lafayette at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 50.148; Louisville 71.051
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 21
Vegas Line: Louisville by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-20 1/2)

Game 739-740: Mississippi at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 67.643; West Virginia 76.629
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 9
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 11
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+11)

Game 741-742: Wyoming at Northern Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 51.502; Northern Iowa 65.370
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 14
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 15
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+15)

Game 743-744: TCU at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 56.499; Houston 65.118
Dunkel Line: Houston by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston by 11
Dunkel Pick: TCU (+11)

Game 745-746: Fresno State at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 56.955; Oregon State 58.266
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+6 1/2)

Game 747-748: WI-Milwaukee at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 53.580; Wisconsin 76.306
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 16
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-16)

Game 749-750: Missouri vs. Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 73.306; Illinois 65.656
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (+2)

Game 751-752: San Jose State at Santa Clara
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 50.651; Santa Clara 56.907
Dunkel Line: Santa Clara by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara

Game 753-754: Utah at Pepperdine
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 61.249; Pepperdine 49.148
Dunkel Line: Utah by 12
Vegas Line: Utah by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-6 1/2)

Game 755-756: North Carolina State at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina State 61.784; Arizona 67.221
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 5
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-5)

Game 757-758: Western Michigan vs. Northeastern
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 52.989; Northeastern 56.362
Dunkel Line: Northeastern by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 759-760: USC vs. St. Mary's (CA)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 64.182; St. Mary's (CA) 67.203
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 3
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 761-762: UNLV at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 62.858; Hawaii 58.196
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 763-764: SMU vs. College of Charleston
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 52.188; College of Charleston 50.440
Dunkel Line: SMU by 2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 765-766: Canisius vs. New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 45.717; New Orleans 45.483
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 767-768: North Florida at Southern Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: North Florida 41.477; Southern Mississippi 64.466
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 23
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 769-770: CS-Fullerton vs. Morehead State
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 51.212; Morehead State 51.142
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 771-772: Weber State at Utah State
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 56.088; Utah State 66.896
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 11
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 773-774: Tulsa vs. Nevada
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 66.235; Nevada 60.255
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 775-776: Nebraska vs. BYU
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 64.401; BYU 67.759
Dunkel Line: BYU by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 777-778: Rider at Siena
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 51.947; Siena 65.263
Dunkel Line: Siena by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Siena by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+14 1/2)

Game 779-780: Montana State at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 53.431; Boise State 56.935
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Boise State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Montana State (+8)

Game 781-782: South Dakota State at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 49.586; Minnesota 73.490
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 24
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 24 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State (+24 1/2)
 

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MREAST NBA WEDNESDAY PLAY OF THE DAY

The Bucks have played a few low scoring games, which is holding the total down here. The bottomline is this is not a good defensive team, and the Wizards do one thing, they score. This game also fits a system that will be active here that has produced overs at the rate of 83% and has covered close to 70% of them by 7 points or more. I'll take the line value here as the Bucks appear defensive after a few low scoring games, but they are anything but. Over gets the call in this one.

#711 WASHINGTON WIZARDS @ #712 MILWAUKEE BUCKS 8PM EST

PLAY ON #711 WASHINGTON WIZARDS @ #712 MILWAUKEE BUCKS OVER 198.5 -110 FOR 3 UNITS
 
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LANG

Wednesday's Selection ... 15 DIME - UTAH UTES - Last year the MWC won every bowl game but BYU.

This year, make them a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS as Wyoming takes care of Fresno State and BYU stepped up and got it done last night.

Here come the Utah Utes.

The bottom line for me in this game is the fact that Utah has won 8 straight bowl games and they have won their last four 65.5 points over the spread. You start winning bowl games by that kind of margin and it is quite clear you are happy to be bowling.

Cal had Rose bowl aspirations. Preseason ranked. Heisman Trophy candidate running back in Best.

Season was a failure again as they lose to USC once again, get routed at Washington and Oregon, and for the most part are now in the same situation as Oregon last night. In a bowl game other than the Rose Bowl.

I made the mistake of going against the MWC last night, and I won't make that mistake again.

Until the MWC doesn't show up, I will gladly grab the points and call for them to step up and do exactly what they have done the last 8 years and that is win a bowl game.

15 DIME - NC CHARLOTTE 49ERS -Great spot for the UNCC to pull the upset.

They get ODU off a big upset win over Georgetown on Saturday, and now back home ODU is in your typical flat spot and asking them to lay this kind of number is just too much.

This is a UNCC team that has already won at Louisville and I don't care who you are, you start going on the road and winning at Louisville then that tells me you have some talent because the pressure defense of the Cardinals isn't an easy one to execute against.

I'm talking about a UNCC team that is 9-1 this year with their only loss at Duke, and has covered every game but 2.

They are a bit under the radar this year because they has 7 players injured last year but this year they are healthy.

Yes, this is an ODU team that is favored in the Colonial, but I just feel this game goes down to the wire and points will be at a premium.

15 DIME - SANTA CLARA BRONCOS -They are playing some basketball out west.

Fresh off their home win over Pacific as a 6 point underdog, Santa Clara gets to step right back up and face a San Jose State team that comes off a loss to Northern Colorado.

This is also a San Jose State team that has 2-4 on the road and struggling to find any real cohesiveness on the offensive end.

As for Santa Clara, their staple has been defense and they have been doing it on that side of the ball as evidenced by not only holding Pacific to 53 points after getting blown out in the first meeting 84-57.

You start holding teams to 53 points after they lit you up for 84 in the first meeting and that tells me your team is improving fast which is exactly the point as they have covered 4 of their last 5.

I am going to side with the hot home team against a struggling road team in a near pickem every single time.

FREE SELECTION - MIAMI-OHIO REDHAWKS
 

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DailyPowerRatings

<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="96%"><tbody><tr><td class="freepickwhite" width="68%">DailyPowerRatings.com </td> <td rowspan="4" align="right" width="32%" valign="top">
logo.jpg
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="freepickwhite1">Wednesday, December 23rd</td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 5* Star - 11+ Point Differential from Point Spread (Highest-Rated 3 Unit Play)
4* Star - 7 to 10 Point Differential (2 Unit Play)
3* Star - 4 to 6 Point Differential (1 Unit Play)
2* Star - 2 to 3 Point Differential (Slight Edge)
1* Star - 0 to 1 Point Differential (No Play Recommended) </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td align="right" width="32%" valign="top"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"> <table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0);" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="99%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="26%" height="30" valign="top">Team
(Game*)
</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="23%" valign="top">Game Rating
(Point Differential)
</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="10%" valign="top">Vegas
Line
</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="9%" valign="top">Our
Line
</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="8%" valign="top">Power
Rating
</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="8%" valign="top">Series</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="9%" valign="top">Home/
Away
</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" width="7%" valign="top">Rest/
Play
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="brdbotright" bgcolor="#ffffff" height="28"> (209) Utah</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#dc0100">3* Star (+3)</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-1</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">8</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> <td class="brdbot" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="brdbotright" bgcolor="#ffffff" height="28"> (210) California</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-3</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> <td class="brdbot" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-1</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="8" class="brdbot" bgcolor="#e6e6e6" height="6"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" align="left"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" class="freepickwhite1">Today's Play:</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2">3* Utah (+3) 1 Unit Play, should be -1 Point Favorites</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
 
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SPORTS WAGERS

Buffalo +1.49 over WASHINGTON

At this price, the Sabres are almost always a must play because not only are they a strong team but they get tremendous goaltending from Ryan Miller and that’s a huge difference. Goaltenders can steal games in this league and it happens all the time and even if the Sabres get out-played here they still have a shot because of its goaltending. Should they come out strong and outplay the Caps, Washington’s goalies (Theodore or Neuvirth) cannot steal a game. What we do know is that the Caps return home from a four-game trip that involved four games in a week in three different time zones. The Caps can definitely be caught flat here and besides that, they’re just 3-3 over its last six games and that includes a 3-0 loss at Buffalo. Play: Buffalo +1.49 (Risking 2 units).


PHOENIX -½ +1.10 over Anaheim

How about the Coyotes? Wow, this team is something else. They continue to win at a high rate and if a team is not ready to go they virtually have no shot of winning. The Ducks played their hearts out last night in Colorado and rallied late to win a game they absolutely dominated and deserved to win. They outshot the Av’s 43-17. Now they’ll play back-to-back and the chances of the Ducks playing another strong game isn’t good. They’re 0-2 after a win this year in the second game of back-to-backs. They often pull a no show anyway and this situation makes it even more likely. Furthermore, it’ll be the Ducks seventh road game in its last eight contests and that, too, adds to the difficulty of this assignment. The Coyotes are just so tough to beat and with the outstanding goaltending of Ilya Bryzgalov combined with the situation being very unfavorable for the Ducks, this one just might be the best play of the night. Play: Phoenix -½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units).


Philadelphia +1.08 over TAMPA BAY

The Flyers recent string of losses, stats and everything else is disturbing to say the least. How can this team go from being a contender early in the year to a complete disaster in the span of about a month or so? Philly has lost 14 of its last 17 games. They have nine goals in its last eight losses. They’ve allowed a power-play goal in six straight. The Flyers have scored two or fewer goals in 11 of their last 13 games, all of them losses. The Flyers have allowed at least one power-play goal in six straight games and have surrendered 11 in that span. They’re 3-13-1 since winning in San Jose on Nov. 20 and the list goes on. Having said that, this is a winnable game for a number of reasons. First, it’s the first game of a six-game trip and you know for sure the effort will be there. Secondly, Tampa Bay is coming off a 4-2 win over the Islanders that closed out a 2-3-1 road trip spanning 10 days and three time zones and will return home for this one. Thirdly, even the worst teams in the league don’t go on losing streaks like this and the Flyers are too talented too keep losing at this rate. And lastly, the puck line says Flyers, as they’re taking back a half puck and laying –1.57, which suggests that the books are enticing Tampa Bay money. Play: Philadelphia +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
 
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NHL DUNKEL


St. Louis at Calgary
The Blues look to build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 road games. St. Louis is the pick (+160) according to Dunkel, which has the Blues favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+160). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 23

Game 51-52: Edmonton at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.277; Minnesota 11.152
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+135); Over

Game 53-54: Florida at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.022; NY Rangers 11.210
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-155); Over

Game 55-56: Atlanta at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 10.793; Boston 10.588
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-155); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+135); Under

Game 57-58: Buffalo at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.922; Washington 12.164
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-160); Over

Game 59-60: Montreal at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.155; Carolina 10.754
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+100); Under

Game 61-62: Toronto at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 9.888; NY Islanders 10.191
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-115); 6
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (-115); Over

Game 63-64: Ottawa at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 12.385; Pittsburgh 12.233
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+180); Over

Game 65-66: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.605; Tampa Bay 10.144
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+100); Over

Game 67-68: Chicago at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.051; Detroit 11.951
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-120); Under

Game 69-70: Columbus at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.213; Dallas 11.115
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+130); Over

Game 71-72: Anaheim at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.044; Phoenix 11.878
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+130); Under

Game 73-74: St. Louis at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.757; Calgary 11.504
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+160); Over
 

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Brett Atkins Wednesday 20 Dime Bowl Money Maker - UTAH UTES

Just how good is the Mountain West Conference. We've already seen Wyoming go in and pull off the big upset of Fresno State and we've seen BYU wipe out favored Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl. Plus this is a Cal team that gave everything in the rivalry game with Stanford and then dumped at Washington the next week 42-10 as a 6 1/2-point favorite. Utah has won eight straight bowl games and will be making it nine tonight. Play the Utes.


10 Dime NBA Slam Dunk - SACRAMENTO KINGS

Classic look-ahead game for the Cavaliers as they are focused in on the Christmas Day game with the Lakers that is getting all the attention and national TV exposure. They already struggle with the Kings, failing to cash in four straight meetings with Sacramento. The Kings are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 and they have won two straight and four of six overall after getting a pair of road wins over Milwaukee and Chicago. Grab the points and play Sacramento tonight.



Charley Sutton WEDNESDAY'S PLAYS 200 Unit Utah
50 Unit Kentucky

Utah vs. California
UTAH - Of Utah’s three SU losses this season, two came against teams that will be playing in BCS bowl games. And of their three losses, two were by a touchdown or less. Coming into tonight’s Poinsettia Bowl the Utes have covered in 3 of their last 4 games and have covered in 2 of their last 3 games on the road. Cal, on the other hand, has been losing money all year long, covering in just 3 of their last 9 games, including only 2 of their last 5 games on the road. It’ll happen again tonight as Utah gets over.


Long Beach State at Kentucky
KENTUCKY - I’ve said it before that I think Kentucky may very well be the best team in the country. The Wildcats have jumped to a 12-0 start and are beating teams by nearly 18 points per game (81.8-64). At home, that number is even better where the Wildcats are beating opponents by more than 20 points per game (85.1-65). Coming into tonight’s game the Wildcats have covered in 3 of their last 4 games and they’ve had huge SU wins over North Carolina and UConn over the last two weeks. Now they battle a Long Beach State team that’s covered in just 1 of its last 3 games and got destroyed 107-74 the last time it played a ranked team (Dec. 7 at Texas). The 49ers will get hammered again today at Kentucky.





Chuck O'Brien WEDNESDAY"S WINNER ... 15 DIME: UTAH (plus the points vs. Cal in the Poinsettia Bowl)

NOTE: With this number sitting at a solid 3, go ahead and buy the half-point and grab +3 1/2 with Utah. That way, if Cal wins by a field goal, we still collect.


Utah

BREAKDOWN: It’s easy to surmise that Utah, one year removed from pummeling Alabama in the Sugar Bowl to end a perfect season, would be less than enthused to be playing in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego before Christmas. In reality, Cal is the team that’s disappointed to be here. The Bears were expected to challenge for the Pac-10 championship this year, but back-to-back disastrous losses to Oregon and USC – by the combined score of 72-6! – ended those dreams. Then the Bears limped to the finish line, losing two of their final four games, including a 42-10 loss at Washington as a 6½-point road favorite to end the regular season. Cal completely quit in that game, and because of that, I doubt they’ll play with much energy tonight. … Despite losing a lot of key players from last year’s team, Utah went 9-3 this year, and all three losses were to very good teams (BYU, TCU and Oregon) and all three were on the road. … Utah owns the nation’s longest bowl winning streak (eight in a row), and it has cashed in six of its last seven bowl games. The Utes are also 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 out-of-conference games, 26-7-1 ATS in their last 34 as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last seven when catching three points or less. Meanwhile, Cal has failed to cover in four of its last five as a favorite and 13 of 16 when giving away three points or less.



Jay McNeil Wednesday's plays 20 Dime -- Utah (plus points vs. California)

UTAH

The Utes have lost just three games this year -- to Oregon, TCU and BYU, all teams that could finish the season ranked in the top 10 -- are 26-7-1 in their last 34 games as an underdog and have won eight straight bowl games, the longest streak in the nation, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven. The Golden Bears have not been as potent on offense since running back Jahvid Best went down with a concussion, they lost 42-10 at Washington in their last game on Dec. 5 and Utah has a strong defense that has not allowed more than 17 points against any team other than Oregon, TCU and BYU.

5 Dime -- Harvard (plus points vs. GEORGETOWN)

HARVARD

Do-it-all star guard Jeremy Lin has helped Harvard jump out to a 7-2 start, with the Crimson already winning at Boston College and playing Connecticut tough in a 79-73 loss, and the Hoyas are 0-2 ATS at home this season and face a tough defensive squad today. Harvard is on ATS runs of 7-0 as an underdog, 6-0 as a road 'dog, 6-1 on the road and 9-2 overall, while Georgetown is on ATS slides of 1-8 at home, 1-7 as a home favorite, 4-11 as a favorite and 7-17-1 overall.



Joel Tyson WEDNESDAY'S SELECTIONS 500♦ - Cal Golden Bear minus the points

I know the Mountain West handled the Pac 10 last night, but if you ask me Oregon State let that 40 mph wind get to them, and that is what really beat the Beavers last night.

Anyway, this is not the same Utah team that went undefeated last season, including their 8th straight bowl win in a shocker over Alabama.

No, the Utes will have a true frosh under center, and while Utah plays solid, no-nonsense football, I prefer the big-play capabilty of the Golden Bears in this one, as California does have a 5 game bowl win streak of their own to hang their hat on.

Junior QB Kevin Riley is ready to take that next step and lead the Bears to their 6th straight bowl win.

Go with Cal.

100♦ - Orlando Magic minus the points

Orlando was resting at home last night, while Houston played in a home win over the LA Clippers.

Tonight marks the Rockets 4th game in 6 nights, and on the road I expect them to lose touch with Orlando.

Orlando is looking to snap a 3 game series losing streak both straight up, and against the spread, and tonight the schedule is greatly in their favor.

Magic pull away late for the cover.

100♦ - Ole Miss Rebels

Rebs catching a bunch here, and I like them plus the points to cover in Morgantown.

These schools did play last December in Oxford, West Va hanging on for a 2 point win as the 2 1/2 point road favorite.

Not sure Ole Miss is going to get their revenge, but they will be there plus the generous impost, as the Mounties record this year has been padded with some easy early season matchups. This figures to be West Virginia's toughest test to date.

Take the points.



Pete Angelo Wednesday's Winner ... 200♦ UTAH UTES - Another slim number to take advantage of, as I am playing the underdog in this one. Last night I told you that you could put a piece on the moneyline, that it was entirely up to you. Tonight JUST TAKE THE POINTS, as the line you should be looking for is 3-1/2 points.

Down the final stretch of the 2009 campaign, following a six-game win streak, Utah lost to both TCU (55-28) and BYU (26-23 in OT) in Mountain West Conference play to finish 9-3 overall and 6-2 in conference play. Normally I'd be a little skeptical about the Utes tonight, as it's apparent superior competition has had its way with them.

But the remaining players from last year will lend experience. Remember, the Utes scored a 31-17 upset win over Alabama in last year's Sugar Bowl. That marked a national-best eighth straight postseason victory and pushed the team to 11-4 in bowl opportunities dating back to the 1939 Sun Bowl.

I will take my chances with another Mountain West team against the overrated Pac 10.
 

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