Service Plays Wednesday 12/1/10

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jeff benton wednesday

Wednesday's Action



30 Dime college basketball release on UNLV minus the points at Illinois State. The Runnin’ Rebels are a coasensus 10-point road favorite both here in Vegas and offshore. My advice is to get down quickly on this game, as I enviosion the number only rising.








15 Dime NBA selection on the LAKERS minus the points at the Rockets. Los Angeles is a consensus a 6-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore. Again, I expect money to pour in on the Lakers so don’t delay in plecing your wager.








UNLV





No question we’re dealing with line inflation here, as UNLV is off to a 6-0 start and the Rebels have caused the oddsmakers to adjust their numbers. Trust me, I live in Vegas and follow this program closely, and I can tell you that while most observers believed UNLV would be very solid this season, no one envisioned that the team would’ve cracked the Top 25 before December 1.





Well, the ranking is justified, as the Rebels are playing well on both sides of the court, averaging 77.5 points per game on 55.1 percent shooting and allowing just 57.8 ppg on 35 percent shooting (the latter figure ranking among the best in the nation. And unlike most teams at this point in the season, UNLV has actually scheduled some quality competition so far. Its last four games were against Wisconsin, Tulsa, Murray State and Virginia Tech. And only one team (Wisconsin, which lost 68-65 in Vegas) has come within nine points of the Rebels.





Illinois State is 5-1 on the season, but look at the Redbirds’ schedule: something called SIU-Edwardsville, Tennessee State, Arkansas-Little Rock (loss), South Dakota, Louisiana-Monroe and Jacksonville State. Translation: There’s no way Illinois State can be ready for what’s about to hit them tonight! And as it is, the Redbirds barely got past Tennessee State (73-68) and UL-Monroe (59-55), both at home. Make no mistake, this is going to be a long year for Illinois State, which lost its top three scorers from last year’s team that went 22-11.





Even though this is UNLV’s first true road game, it’s in a gym that seats less than 5,000 (meaning Illinois State’s home-court advantage will be significantly mitigated). Also, the Rebels cashed in nine of their last 11 roadies last year. Meanwhile, Illinois State is in pointspread funks of 1-7 overall, 1-4 at home, 1-5 in non-conference play, 0-5 after a SU victory and 0-4 against winning teams.





Bottom line: Normally, I’d be very hesitant to lay this many points with a team that’s A) coming off an impressive tournament victory and B) playing its first road game of the season. But I’m a big fan of Rebels coach Lon Kruger, and I don’t doubt for a second that he’ll have his players ready to go from the opening tip. If I’m right and UNLV avoids the pitfalls of a “trap game,” than Illinois State is in big trouble because the Redbirds – who have lost 20 in a row to ranked opponents since 1987 – simply don’t have the horses to run with the Rebels.








LAKERS




There’s no way the Lakers are losing their fourth game in a row tonight – no way in hell, not against a Rockets squad that’s just 5-12 on the season, including 2-7 SU and ATS in its last nine games.





To recap the Lakers’ slump: They fell 98-96 at Memphis last night, which came after narrow, last-minute losses at Utah (102-96) and to the Pacers at home (95-92). It’s just the second time since Pau Gasol arrived in L.A. in February 2007 that the Lakers dropped three in row, and you have to go back to the end of the 2006-07 season – we’re talking three full seasons – for the last time Los Angeles lost four in a row. And Kobe Bryant isn’t going to allow that streak to end tonight.





So assuming a Lakers victory tonight, the question becomes can they cover this pointspread? Well, for one thing you know Bryant is all about making statements and building confidence within his teammates, so he won’t be shy about pouring it on if given the opportunity. Also, L.A.’s last five wins were by margins of 7, 28, 17, 13 and 11 points, and they’ve already posted eight double-digit wins this season.





Meanwhile, the Rockets are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, allowing an average of 106.4 points per game on 46.5 percent shooting. That’s got to be uplifting to Bryant, Gasol and the rest of the Lakers, who have been held under triple digits in four straight games (scoring 96, 92, 96 and 98) after cracking the century mark in 12 of their first 13 games (and scoring 99 in the other contest).





Two final points to make here: 1) The SU winner has covered the spread in nine of L.A.’s last 10 games, while the winner has cashed in 12 straight Houston contests and 15 of the Rockets’ 17 contests this season; 2) the Lakers have cashed in five of their last six games when playing on back-to-back nights; and 3) Houston have failed to cover in 23 of their last 33 home games.





L.A. rolls and rolls big – by at least 15 points – over the Rockets, who are still without their two best players in big man Yao Ming and point guard Aaron Brooks (both injured).




 

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Detroit+12******** 50 unit
La Clipper- over 204*********70 unit
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ACCUSCORE NBA

****
523 San Antonio Spurs
524 LA Clippers
Past Week: Point Spreads: 28-18, 60.9%, +820 -- WEST CONF GAME PS: 12-6, 66.7%, +540 -- PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 0.5 TO 1.5: 11-8, 57.9%, +220 --
Hot Pick San Antonio Spurs-7
AccuScore's Point Spread Line is San Antonio Spurs -8

509 Portland Trail Blazers
510 Boston Celtics
Past Week: Point Spreads: 28-18, 60.9%, +820 -- PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 2.0 to 4.0: 16-7, 69.6%, +830 --
Hot Pick Boston Celtics-7
AccuScore's Point Spread Line is Boston Celtics -9

521 Indiana Pacers
522 Utah Jazz
Past Week: Point Spreads: 28-18, 60.9%, +820 -- PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 2.0 to 4.0: 16-7, 69.6%, +830 --
Hot Pick Indiana Pacers+8
AccuScore's Point Spread Line is Utah Jazz -5

513 Charlotte Bobcats
514 New Orleans Hornets
Past Week: Point Spreads: 28-18, 60.9%, +820 -- PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 0.5 TO 1.5: 11-8, 57.9%, +220 --
Hot Pick Charlotte Bobcats+8
AccuScore's Point Spread Line is New Orleans Hornets -7

519 Milwaukee Bucks
520 Denver Nuggets
Past Week: Point Spreads: 28-18, 60.9%, +820 -- PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 0.5 TO 1.5: 11-8, 57.9%, +220 --
Hot Pick Denver Nuggets-8.5
AccuScore's Point Spread Line is Denver Nuggets -9

505 Oklahoma City Thunder
506 New Jersey Nets
Past Week: Point Spreads: 28-18, 60.9%, +820 -- PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 2.0 to 4.0: 16-7, 69.6%, +830 --
Hot Pick New Jersey Nets+7
AccuScore's Point Spread Line is Oklahoma City Thunder -3

517 LA Lakers
518 Houston Rockets
Past Week: Point Spreads: 28-18, 60.9%, +820 -- WEST CONF GAME PS: 12-6, 66.7%, +540 -- PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 2.0 to 4.0: 16-7, 69.6%, +830 --
Hot Pick Houston Rockets+6
AccuScore's Point Spread Line is LA Lakers -4

***
501 Memphis Grizzlies
502 Atlanta Hawks
Past Week: Point Spreads: 28-18, 60.9%, +820 -- PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 2.0 to 4.0: 16-7, 69.6%, +830 -- Home Favored by 4 to 5.5: 7-3, 70%, +370 --
Hot Pick Atlanta Hawks-5.5
AccuScore's Point Spread Line is Atlanta Hawks -9

503 Washington Wizards
504 Toronto Raptors
Past Week: Point Spreads: 28-18, 60.9%, +820 -- PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 2.0 to 4.0: 16-7, 69.6%, +830 -- Home Favored by 4 to 5.5: 7-3, 70%, +370 --
Hot Pick Toronto Raptors-4.5
AccuScore's Point Spread Line is Toronto Raptors -7

**
515 Minnesota Timberwolves
516 Dallas Mavericks
Past Week: Point Spreads: 28-18, 60.9%, +820 -- WEST CONF GAME PS: 12-6, 66.7%, +540 -- PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 2.0 to 4.0: 16-7, 69.6%, +830 --
Hot Pick Dallas Mavericks-10
AccuScore's Point Spread Line is Dallas Mavericks -13

511 Orlando Magic
512 Chicago Bulls
Past Week: Point Spreads: 28-18, 60.9%, +820 -- PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 2.0 to 4.0: 16-7, 69.6%, +830 --
Hot Pick Chicago Bulls-1.5
AccuScore's Point Spread Line is Chicago Bulls -4

507 Detroit Pistons
508 Miami Heat
Past Week: Point Spreads: 28-18, 60.9%, +820 -- PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 0.5 TO 1.5: 11-8, 57.9%, +220 --
Hot Pick Miami Heat-11.5
AccuScore's Point Spread Line is Miami Heat -12

****
523 San Antonio Spurs
524 LA Clippers
Past Week: WEST CONF GAME TOTALS: 12-7, 63.2%, +430 -- O/U: Sim vs Vegas Diff 4.5 to 6.0: 13-8, 61.9%, +420 --
Hot Pick UNDER 203.5
AccuScore's Over-Under Line is 198

519 Milwaukee Bucks
520 Denver Nuggets
Past Week: Total Betting Line 195.5 to 200: 7-4, 63.6%, +260 --
Hot Pick PICK: OVER 198.5
AccuScore's Over-Under Line is 200

505 Oklahoma City Thunder
506 New Jersey Nets
Past Week: Total Betting Line 195.5 to 200: 7-4, 63.6%, +260 --
Hot Pick PICK: OVER 197.5
AccuScore's Over-Under Line is 201
NBA 2010-12-01 517 LA Lakers
518 Houston Rockets
Past Week: WEST CONF GAME TOTALS: 12-7, 63.2%, +430 --
Hot Pick UNDER 204.5
AccuScore's Over-Under Line is 203

***
503 Washington Wizards
504 Toronto Raptors
Past Week: Total Betting Line 205.5 to 210: 4-1, 80%, +290 --
Hot Pick UNDER 208.5
AccuScore's Over-Under Line is 206

**
501 Memphis Grizzlies
502 Atlanta Hawks
Past Week: Total Betting Line 195.5 to 200: 7-4, 63.6%, +260 --
Hot Pick PICK: OVER 197
AccuScore's Over-Under Line is 199

515 Minnesota Timberwolves
516 Dallas Mavericks
Past Week: WEST CONF GAME TOTALS: 12-7, 63.2%, +430 --
Hot Pick PICK: OVER 204.5
AccuScore's Over-Under Line is 205

521 Indiana Pacers
522 Utah Jazz
Past Week: Total Betting Line 195.5 to 200: 7-4, 63.6%, +260 --
Hot Pick PICK: OVER 198.5
AccuScore's Over-Under Line is 199

511 Orlando Magic
512 Chicago Bulls
UNDER 193.5
AccuScore's Over-Under Line is 193

507 Detroit Pistons
508 Miami Heat
UNDER 191.5
AccuScore's Over-Under Line is 189

509 Portland Trail Blazers
510 Boston Celtics
UNDER 186.5
AccuScore's Over-Under Line is 186

513 Charlotte Bobcats
514 New Orleans Hornets
UNDER 186.5
AccuScore's Over-Under Line is 183
 
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2nd Biggest Play of my Career

50 DIME RELEASE


VCU-South Florida?????????
 

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Today's Winner...
30 Dime play on Drexel over St. Joseph's. The Dragons are cuarently laying 8 1/2 poicnts tonight at the Daskalals Center in Philly.

Seems like a lot of points at first glance, but in reality the Dragons will roll here based on several strong advantages they have. The first and most obvious of which is experience, as the Hawks field one of their youngest teams in school history (11 combined seasons of college experaence). The Dragons on the other hand, are poised to be one of the best teams in a very good CAA conference this season.

Drexel has always been known as a defensive minded/glass-cleaning program, but with the emergence of super sixth man Chris Fouch (21.5 ppg), the scoring punch has been added to an already rock-solid defensive squad. The bigger problem for the Hawks maybe matching up down-low, where their incredibly light frontcourt (Aiken 6'9 186 lbs, Quarles 6'6 175 lbs, Hilliard 6'7 215 lbs) is going to have to contend with some real bruicsers in the Dragons Givens (11 ppg, 12 rpg), Mccoy (6'9, 270 lbs), and star freshman Ruffin (6'8 240 lbs). The young and thin Hawks are going to get muscled around by the bigger and stronger Dragons tonight.

Finally, there's a couple thing that would really worry me if I were backing the Hawks in this match up. First, their penchant for jacking up three pointers (which is typical for a young team), shooting just 26% from long-range in November. And second, their lack of defensive presence, allowing 70 ppg on nearly 45% shooting. Drexel excels on the defensive front, and that includes on the perimeter against the 3-pointer (allowing just 26% ironlcally). Look for the rebuilding Hawks to get taught a lesson here by a remerging Dragons squad on the rise. Drexel over St. Jospeh's Wednesday.
 
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