ROBERT FERRINGO
Indiana (+5.5) over Boston College
Florida (-4) over Central Florida
Western Kentucky (+15) over Vanderbilt
Arkansas-Little Rock (+16) over Missouri State
New Mexico (Pk) over Southern Illinois
South Alabama (+16) over Alabama
Duquesne (+11) over Pittsburgh
Penn State (Pk) over Maryland
Fordham (+14) over Harvard
Hawaii (+4.5) over Cal Poly SLO
Temple (-8) over Central Michigan
Wisconsin (-8) over N.C. State
UC-Davis (+16) over Cal
Indiana (+5.5) over Boston College
Florida (-4) over Central Florida
Western Kentucky (+15) over Vanderbilt
Arkansas-Little Rock (+16) over Missouri State
New Mexico (Pk) over Southern Illinois
South Alabama (+16) over Alabama
Duquesne (+11) over Pittsburgh
Penn State (Pk) over Maryland
Fordham (+14) over Harvard
Hawaii (+4.5) over Cal Poly SLO
Temple (-8) over Central Michigan
Wisconsin (-8) over N.C. State
UC-Davis (+16) over Cal
Shed's One-a-Day
Wednesday's Play:
Columbus Nashville Under 5 goals +115
I don't like a lot of the early lines on Wed. I like Anaheim but its at -145 so I'm going with another of these Under 5 plays that pays better. Again to remind, we get a win at 4 and a push at 5 and to me a push is not a bad thing. Hopefully Rinne will be playing for Nashville. If not, that could be an problem.
Wednesday's Play:
Columbus Nashville Under 5 goals +115
I don't like a lot of the early lines on Wed. I like Anaheim but its at -145 so I'm going with another of these Under 5 plays that pays better. Again to remind, we get a win at 4 and a push at 5 and to me a push is not a bad thing. Hopefully Rinne will be playing for Nashville. If not, that could be an problem.
Guaranteed Pick: John Ryan
Game: Florida at Central Florida Dec 1 2010 7:00PM
Prediction: Central Florida
Reason: 25* graded play on Central Florida as they take on Florida set to tip at 7 PM EST. This game is being played in the Amway Arena in Tampa, Florida serving as a neutral court venue for both teams. UCF is a very good and vastly unknown shooting team. Few people have ever heard of Central Florida, but they will after this game. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that UCF will lose this game by fewer than five points and has a strong hot at winning this game. UCF is a solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons. Florida does not have the personnel to match up and defend the UCF offense. The model shows a high probability that UCF will shoot between 46 and 53% from the floor. Florida is just 4-13 ATS the last three seasons when allowing opponents to shoot within this range. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 108-53 making 55.2 units using the money line since 1997. Play on neutral court teams after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games and with all five starters returning from last season. Here is a second system that has gone 51-51 making 41.4 units since 1997. The average play has been an impressive 181 dog. Play on neutral court dogs using the money line and are good offensive teams scoring 77+ points/game on the season and after allowing 55 points or less. The UCF Knights are 5-0 and have shot better than 50% in four of the five games played. Head Coach has some strong ties to Gainesville having spent 11 years in Gainesville as an assistant under Billy Donovan and helping the program claim back-to-back national titles in 2006 and 2007. UCF gets on the radar with this game. Consider an alternative wager placing a 21* amount on the line and a 4* amount on the money line. Take UCF.
Game: Florida at Central Florida Dec 1 2010 7:00PM
Prediction: Central Florida
Reason: 25* graded play on Central Florida as they take on Florida set to tip at 7 PM EST. This game is being played in the Amway Arena in Tampa, Florida serving as a neutral court venue for both teams. UCF is a very good and vastly unknown shooting team. Few people have ever heard of Central Florida, but they will after this game. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that UCF will lose this game by fewer than five points and has a strong hot at winning this game. UCF is a solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons. Florida does not have the personnel to match up and defend the UCF offense. The model shows a high probability that UCF will shoot between 46 and 53% from the floor. Florida is just 4-13 ATS the last three seasons when allowing opponents to shoot within this range. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 108-53 making 55.2 units using the money line since 1997. Play on neutral court teams after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games and with all five starters returning from last season. Here is a second system that has gone 51-51 making 41.4 units since 1997. The average play has been an impressive 181 dog. Play on neutral court dogs using the money line and are good offensive teams scoring 77+ points/game on the season and after allowing 55 points or less. The UCF Knights are 5-0 and have shot better than 50% in four of the five games played. Head Coach has some strong ties to Gainesville having spent 11 years in Gainesville as an assistant under Billy Donovan and helping the program claim back-to-back national titles in 2006 and 2007. UCF gets on the radar with this game. Consider an alternative wager placing a 21* amount on the line and a 4* amount on the money line. Take UCF.
SPORTSBETSDOMINATOR
NBA PLAYS
Oklahoma City Thunder -6
Chicago Bulls -1
San Antonio Spurs -6
CBB PLAYS
Arizona Wildcats -7
Xavier Musketeers -7
Florida Gators -3
Utah St Aggies -9.5
San Diego St Aztecs -6
New Mexico Lobos -1.5
Iowa St Cyclones +2
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -3.5
VCU Rams -2
Indiana Hoosiers +5
NBA PLAYS
Oklahoma City Thunder -6
Chicago Bulls -1
San Antonio Spurs -6
CBB PLAYS
Arizona Wildcats -7
Xavier Musketeers -7
Florida Gators -3
Utah St Aggies -9.5
San Diego St Aztecs -6
New Mexico Lobos -1.5
Iowa St Cyclones +2
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -3.5
VCU Rams -2
Indiana Hoosiers +5
DAVID MALINSKY
4* DALLAS over MINNESOTA
Efficient markets adjust. When the proper price is not placed on a commodity it does not sell, so the price must be adjusted until it reaches the proper level. And many times when we find an extreme situation, the markets adjust too far, giving away something valuable at a bargain rate. That is what we have here. Any play on the Mavericks as a home favorite will appear to be running into a wall, given the 13-34 ATS tally in the last 47 in the role. But tonight’s line is a prime example of the markets being efficient, and taking full account of that trend in the setting of the line, instead of focusing on the true abilities of the two commodities.
At 13-4 the Mavericks are an elite team. They are the only team in the NBA to rate at #8 or better on both our Offensive and Defensive ratings, and are also #11 in rebounding. They have size, depth, experience and chemistry, and the more that Caron Butler (42 points in the first two games of this home stand) and DeShawn Stevenson (shooting 50 percent from 3-point range) show on offense, the more room that Dirk Nowitzki finds to operate. Meanwhile the additions of Tyson Chanlder and Brendan Haywood have made it an entirely different defensive presence around the basket.
So consider these matchups. The #6 offense vs. #27 defense. The #8 defense vs. #29 offense. A team that is #6 in assists vs. a defense dead last at #30 in allowing them. A team at #6 in point differential vs. one that is also dead last in the most important category of all. And we could go on and on. Yet we are only looking at a -10 here, after the Timberwolves were in the range of +16.5 at Miami, +18 at Orlando, and +16.5 against the Lakers on the road earlier, and were +9 vs. the Lakers and +7.5 vs. the Spurs at home last week. And it all has to do with not the true quality of these teams, but rather that Dallas well-known ATS mark as a home favorite. But we sense the Mavericks ready to turn that around at the very time that the markets are adjusting too far. It has been a 2-0 ATS run as a home favorite on this home stand, and both games were much better than the final score can show. They beat Miami by 11 in an awful setting, playing the 4th game in five nights, and coming off of a draining road win vs. rival San Antonio the previous evening. On Monday they covered vs. Houston without trying much at all in the second half, building a lead of 22 points, and with no starter even reaching 30:00 of court time. It is the fact that the starters played so little that night, with Rick Carlisle giving them much of the evening off after that tough schedule cycle of last week, that sets this up so well. Now they actually get a chance to put a game plan together for the hapless Timberwolves, while also having tomorrow off, which means the focus and energy to throw a KO punch. It translates to easy scoring opportunities vs. a witless defense that can be broken down, and an explosive performance that renders this spread as being quite short.
4* DALLAS over MINNESOTA
Efficient markets adjust. When the proper price is not placed on a commodity it does not sell, so the price must be adjusted until it reaches the proper level. And many times when we find an extreme situation, the markets adjust too far, giving away something valuable at a bargain rate. That is what we have here. Any play on the Mavericks as a home favorite will appear to be running into a wall, given the 13-34 ATS tally in the last 47 in the role. But tonight’s line is a prime example of the markets being efficient, and taking full account of that trend in the setting of the line, instead of focusing on the true abilities of the two commodities.
At 13-4 the Mavericks are an elite team. They are the only team in the NBA to rate at #8 or better on both our Offensive and Defensive ratings, and are also #11 in rebounding. They have size, depth, experience and chemistry, and the more that Caron Butler (42 points in the first two games of this home stand) and DeShawn Stevenson (shooting 50 percent from 3-point range) show on offense, the more room that Dirk Nowitzki finds to operate. Meanwhile the additions of Tyson Chanlder and Brendan Haywood have made it an entirely different defensive presence around the basket.
So consider these matchups. The #6 offense vs. #27 defense. The #8 defense vs. #29 offense. A team that is #6 in assists vs. a defense dead last at #30 in allowing them. A team at #6 in point differential vs. one that is also dead last in the most important category of all. And we could go on and on. Yet we are only looking at a -10 here, after the Timberwolves were in the range of +16.5 at Miami, +18 at Orlando, and +16.5 against the Lakers on the road earlier, and were +9 vs. the Lakers and +7.5 vs. the Spurs at home last week. And it all has to do with not the true quality of these teams, but rather that Dallas well-known ATS mark as a home favorite. But we sense the Mavericks ready to turn that around at the very time that the markets are adjusting too far. It has been a 2-0 ATS run as a home favorite on this home stand, and both games were much better than the final score can show. They beat Miami by 11 in an awful setting, playing the 4th game in five nights, and coming off of a draining road win vs. rival San Antonio the previous evening. On Monday they covered vs. Houston without trying much at all in the second half, building a lead of 22 points, and with no starter even reaching 30:00 of court time. It is the fact that the starters played so little that night, with Rick Carlisle giving them much of the evening off after that tough schedule cycle of last week, that sets this up so well. Now they actually get a chance to put a game plan together for the hapless Timberwolves, while also having tomorrow off, which means the focus and energy to throw a KO punch. It translates to easy scoring opportunities vs. a witless defense that can be broken down, and an explosive performance that renders this spread as being quite short.
