Dr. Bob
Central Mich (-14.5) 31 BALL ST. 19
Over/Under Total: 49.5
05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-18
As bad as Ball State is at 1-9, the Cardinals' only loss by more than 14 points was at Auburn. Central Michigan may be the class of the MAC, but Ball State has 3 pretty good running backs that should be able to has decent success running the ball against a mediocre Central Michigan defense. Ball State's pass attack is one of the worst in the nation, so the running game will have to work for the Cardinals to score points. Ball State's defense had had 3 consecutive solid outings, allowing 4.8 yppl to Eastern Michigan, Ohio, and Northern Illinois - teams that would combine to average 4.7 yppl against an average defense. Even if Ball State's defense plays at their season level of 0.8 yppl worse than average my math model would still only favor Central Michigan by 14 points in this game and the Chippewas apply to a negative 92-169-5 ATS road favorite letdown situation.
Buffalo (-3.5) 27 MIAMI OHIO 24
Over/Under Total: 50.0
03:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-18 My math model favors Buffalo by 3 points with Buffalo star WR Roosevelt out.
Central Mich (-14.5) 31 BALL ST. 19
Over/Under Total: 49.5
05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-18
As bad as Ball State is at 1-9, the Cardinals' only loss by more than 14 points was at Auburn. Central Michigan may be the class of the MAC, but Ball State has 3 pretty good running backs that should be able to has decent success running the ball against a mediocre Central Michigan defense. Ball State's pass attack is one of the worst in the nation, so the running game will have to work for the Cardinals to score points. Ball State's defense had had 3 consecutive solid outings, allowing 4.8 yppl to Eastern Michigan, Ohio, and Northern Illinois - teams that would combine to average 4.7 yppl against an average defense. Even if Ball State's defense plays at their season level of 0.8 yppl worse than average my math model would still only favor Central Michigan by 14 points in this game and the Chippewas apply to a negative 92-169-5 ATS road favorite letdown situation.
Buffalo (-3.5) 27 MIAMI OHIO 24
Over/Under Total: 50.0
03:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-18 My math model favors Buffalo by 3 points with Buffalo star WR Roosevelt out.
Today's Picks by Natural Born Thriller
<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr> <th class="bl" colspan="5" align="left">CB</th></tr> <tr bgcolor="#999999" height="1"> <td colspan="5" height="1">
</td></tr> <tr bgcolor="#000066"> <th>Game Time</th> <th>Game</th> <th>Pick</th> <th>Bet</th> <th>Analysis</th></tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td align="middle">Wednesday, 11/18/2009</td> <td align="middle">Nevada</td> <td rowspan="2" align="middle">Nevada (S: 6.0) </td> <td rowspan="2" align="middle">5</td> <td rowspan="2" align="middle">
</td></tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td align="middle">10:30pm EST</td> <td align="middle">Unlv</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr> <th class="bl" colspan="5" align="left">CB</th></tr> <tr bgcolor="#999999" height="1"> <td colspan="5" height="1">
</td></tr> <tr bgcolor="#000066"> <th>Game Time</th> <th>Game</th> <th>Pick</th> <th>Bet</th> <th>Analysis</th></tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td align="middle">Wednesday, 11/18/2009</td> <td align="middle">Nevada</td> <td rowspan="2" align="middle">Nevada (S: 6.0) </td> <td rowspan="2" align="middle">5</td> <td rowspan="2" align="middle">
</td></tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td align="middle">10:30pm EST</td> <td align="middle">Unlv</td></tr></tbody></table>
5DimeSports.com
5 Dime IS Their Top Play
5 DIME PLAY
Spurs @ Mavericks
9:30pm Tonight
5 Dime Play Take Dallas -1 ( buy the hook if you have to, don't think you will need it, but you never know, or you could just take the ML depending on the dif.) The situational play here is the basic revenge factor. The Spurs beat the Mavericks in San Antonio this year and now Dallas gets to play them at their court. Since Dampier has been out for the Mavs, Drew Gooden has stepped in nicely averaging 14 points in the past three games. Dallas has played well this season at home as they are 3-1 ATS at home so far, while the Spurs are 0-3 ats and su on the road. The Spurs are only averaging 89.3 points on the road, while the Mavericks are averaging 109.2 points at home. I also like that Dallas is giving Beaubois more playing time and is showing people why. Look for the Mavs to give a little payback.
Trends I Like
Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Spurs are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Dallas.
Spurs are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Mavericks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Mavericks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
5 Dime IS Their Top Play
5 DIME PLAY
Spurs @ Mavericks
9:30pm Tonight
5 Dime Play Take Dallas -1 ( buy the hook if you have to, don't think you will need it, but you never know, or you could just take the ML depending on the dif.) The situational play here is the basic revenge factor. The Spurs beat the Mavericks in San Antonio this year and now Dallas gets to play them at their court. Since Dampier has been out for the Mavs, Drew Gooden has stepped in nicely averaging 14 points in the past three games. Dallas has played well this season at home as they are 3-1 ATS at home so far, while the Spurs are 0-3 ats and su on the road. The Spurs are only averaging 89.3 points on the road, while the Mavericks are averaging 109.2 points at home. I also like that Dallas is giving Beaubois more playing time and is showing people why. Look for the Mavs to give a little payback.
Trends I Like
Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Spurs are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Dallas.
Spurs are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Mavericks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Mavericks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
