Rocketman
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Toronto vs. Dallas
Dallas is only 1-3 at home this season. Stars are 15-36 in their last 51 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Stars are 16-39 in their last 55 games following a win. Stars are 2-7 in their last 9 home games. Stars are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Stars are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Stars are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a favorite. Stars are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. Northeast. DALLAS is 10-30 (-22.5 Units) against the money line after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 10-30 (-22.5 Units) against the money line off a win or tie in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. We'll play Toronto for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Toronto vs. Dallas
Dallas is only 1-3 at home this season. Stars are 15-36 in their last 51 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Stars are 16-39 in their last 55 games following a win. Stars are 2-7 in their last 9 home games. Stars are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Stars are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Stars are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a favorite. Stars are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. Northeast. DALLAS is 10-30 (-22.5 Units) against the money line after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 10-30 (-22.5 Units) against the money line off a win or tie in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. We'll play Toronto for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.[/FONT]
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Cleveland vs. Toronto
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this one is on the Cavaliers as they use the Raptors as their punching bag to erase memories of last nights defeat at home at the hands of the Celtics:
Shaquille O’Neal had 10 points - just two after halftime - and 10 rebounds for the Cavs, who have now lost three consecutive season openers.
Lebron James finished with 38 points, eight rebounds, four blocks and made four 3-pointers, but no other player on the team scored more than 12. I look for the rest of the "cast" to play with a much more concerted effort this evening after last nights poor showing.
The Cavs have won nine of their last 10 meetings with the Raptors. The only time they lost in that span - a 91-82 defeat Nov. 30, 2007, in Toronto - James sat out with a sprained left index finger.
The five-time All-Star is averaging 31.1 points on 52.5 % shooting in his last nine games against the Raptors.
On the other side of the court: After winning the Atlantic Division in 2006-07, and making a return trip to the playoffs the following year, Toronto had high hopes for last season but never got in sync and finished 33-49. Because of that the Raptors added guard Jarrett Jack and power forward Reggie Evans, and selected Southern California swingman DeMar DeRozan with the ninth pick of the draft, but Hedo Turkoglu is the most significant addition of them all.
This was all done in an attempt to keep Chris Bosh in Toronto as he becomes a free agent after this season.
Bottom line: Last night I said it would take time for Lebron and Shaq to "gel", and of course it still will; however I believe Lebron is going to take it upon himself to dictate the tempo of this game and look for the rest of the "supporting cast" to "up" the level of their collective games.
Toronto is going to be a "work in progress" for a while and I expect Cleveland to take advantage tonight; play on the CAVALIERS! *9*[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Cleveland vs. Toronto
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this one is on the Cavaliers as they use the Raptors as their punching bag to erase memories of last nights defeat at home at the hands of the Celtics:
Shaquille O’Neal had 10 points - just two after halftime - and 10 rebounds for the Cavs, who have now lost three consecutive season openers.
Lebron James finished with 38 points, eight rebounds, four blocks and made four 3-pointers, but no other player on the team scored more than 12. I look for the rest of the "cast" to play with a much more concerted effort this evening after last nights poor showing.
The Cavs have won nine of their last 10 meetings with the Raptors. The only time they lost in that span - a 91-82 defeat Nov. 30, 2007, in Toronto - James sat out with a sprained left index finger.
The five-time All-Star is averaging 31.1 points on 52.5 % shooting in his last nine games against the Raptors.
On the other side of the court: After winning the Atlantic Division in 2006-07, and making a return trip to the playoffs the following year, Toronto had high hopes for last season but never got in sync and finished 33-49. Because of that the Raptors added guard Jarrett Jack and power forward Reggie Evans, and selected Southern California swingman DeMar DeRozan with the ninth pick of the draft, but Hedo Turkoglu is the most significant addition of them all.
This was all done in an attempt to keep Chris Bosh in Toronto as he becomes a free agent after this season.
Bottom line: Last night I said it would take time for Lebron and Shaq to "gel", and of course it still will; however I believe Lebron is going to take it upon himself to dictate the tempo of this game and look for the rest of the "supporting cast" to "up" the level of their collective games.
Toronto is going to be a "work in progress" for a while and I expect Cleveland to take advantage tonight; play on the CAVALIERS! *9*[/FONT]
Prezz ws game one blowout
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Analysis: 8* WS BEST BET BLOWOUT
(951) PHILADELPHIA (LEE) at (952) NY YANKEES (SABATHIA) 7:55 PM - ** World Series - Best of 7 - Game 1
The questions about which umpires would be chosen to grade the World Series this year have been answered. Crew chiefs Joe West, Dana DeMuth and Gerry Davis, will be joined by Brian Gorman, Jeff Nelson and Mike Everitt. This constitutes a split among whom we consider pitcher-friendly and hitter-friendly vests. Sabathia, has a winning record with each and every umpire on the World Series crew.
In past Fall Classics, its proven that teams don't win unless they can hit. While both the Yanks and the Phils can clearly do this, it is the pitching and bullpen that will dictate this year's winner. Game 1 falls right into this category, likely more, than any game on the 4-to-7 game slate. The Yankees bullpen is better than the Phils, and while it might not make a difference in Game 1, it could, and definitely will, in the series.
First, the forecast for Wednesday night's game offers an advantage to the pitchers. A 60 percent chance of rain with a brisk wind blowing in from left-center field assists both starting lefties, it also slows the running game, a key factor considering we fully expect a determined effort by Philadelphia to run on Yanks catcher Jorge Posada.
Wednesday night's matchup might pit the best offensive team in the American League against the best offensive team in the National League, but when evaluating which pitching staff figures to be better on Wednesday night, C.C. Sabathia and Mariano Rivera or Cliff Lee and Brad Lidge or , the umpiring crew, new Yankee Stadium, and the weather give New York the easy edge.
Both starters are fresh, and have a seasonal advantage due to the weather conditions. The wind blowing in from left-center means that all of the fly balls off of right-handed bats, and those off the bat of slugger Ryan Howard (he goes to left-center WHEN he can make contact against a good southpaw) will befall a quick death.
The umpires slated for Game 1 are the best of the best, and all have pitcher-friendly tendencies when organizations have their No. 1 on the mound.
The Phillies are the most efficient base-stealing team in the major leagues, and have been during their championship tenure. This year, the Phillies stole 119 bases and had only 28 caught stealing. The Yankees had 111 steals and an 80 percent success rate. The Phillies depend on the stolen base more than the Yanks and the probable wet conditions on Wednesday night take away some of the allure of backing the Phils.
The Yankees have been at their best versus good teams. New York is 61-34 against teams with a winning record and were 38-18 in the second half of this season against clubs that sported winning percentages of .501 or better.
New York's improved defense has been everything this year. It has covered up the less than stellar effectiveness of the backend of the rotation and has made their top side, even better. They are 33-8 after three straight games where they committed no errors this season. The Yankees are nearly unbeatable with a fresh bullpen, too, with a 61-28 record in a game after one or less relievers makes an appearance in the previous contest.
8* Play on the Yankees
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Analysis: 8* WS BEST BET BLOWOUT
(951) PHILADELPHIA (LEE) at (952) NY YANKEES (SABATHIA) 7:55 PM - ** World Series - Best of 7 - Game 1
The questions about which umpires would be chosen to grade the World Series this year have been answered. Crew chiefs Joe West, Dana DeMuth and Gerry Davis, will be joined by Brian Gorman, Jeff Nelson and Mike Everitt. This constitutes a split among whom we consider pitcher-friendly and hitter-friendly vests. Sabathia, has a winning record with each and every umpire on the World Series crew.
In past Fall Classics, its proven that teams don't win unless they can hit. While both the Yanks and the Phils can clearly do this, it is the pitching and bullpen that will dictate this year's winner. Game 1 falls right into this category, likely more, than any game on the 4-to-7 game slate. The Yankees bullpen is better than the Phils, and while it might not make a difference in Game 1, it could, and definitely will, in the series.
First, the forecast for Wednesday night's game offers an advantage to the pitchers. A 60 percent chance of rain with a brisk wind blowing in from left-center field assists both starting lefties, it also slows the running game, a key factor considering we fully expect a determined effort by Philadelphia to run on Yanks catcher Jorge Posada.
Wednesday night's matchup might pit the best offensive team in the American League against the best offensive team in the National League, but when evaluating which pitching staff figures to be better on Wednesday night, C.C. Sabathia and Mariano Rivera or Cliff Lee and Brad Lidge or , the umpiring crew, new Yankee Stadium, and the weather give New York the easy edge.
Both starters are fresh, and have a seasonal advantage due to the weather conditions. The wind blowing in from left-center means that all of the fly balls off of right-handed bats, and those off the bat of slugger Ryan Howard (he goes to left-center WHEN he can make contact against a good southpaw) will befall a quick death.
The umpires slated for Game 1 are the best of the best, and all have pitcher-friendly tendencies when organizations have their No. 1 on the mound.
The Phillies are the most efficient base-stealing team in the major leagues, and have been during their championship tenure. This year, the Phillies stole 119 bases and had only 28 caught stealing. The Yankees had 111 steals and an 80 percent success rate. The Phillies depend on the stolen base more than the Yanks and the probable wet conditions on Wednesday night take away some of the allure of backing the Phils.
The Yankees have been at their best versus good teams. New York is 61-34 against teams with a winning record and were 38-18 in the second half of this season against clubs that sported winning percentages of .501 or better.
New York's improved defense has been everything this year. It has covered up the less than stellar effectiveness of the backend of the rotation and has made their top side, even better. They are 33-8 after three straight games where they committed no errors this season. The Yankees are nearly unbeatable with a fresh bullpen, too, with a 61-28 record in a game after one or less relievers makes an appearance in the previous contest.
8* Play on the Yankees
Dave Malinsky 10/28
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OVER 191.5,MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES -vs-Detroit Pistons
4* #711 DETROIT/MEMPHIS Over
The best value early in any sports season comes from teams that have had major changes that throw past data-bases completely out of play. That is what we are going to have on both sides of this equation, and the low Total set for this matchup shows how far behind we believe the oddsmakers are. The Pistons had a great chemistry for a lot of seasons, grinding down opponents with a patient half-court offense and that tenacious defense. Not anymore. It is a completely different mix now with the likes of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva on board, and in leading the team in scoring in the pre-season we also see the potential of Rodney Stuckey beginning to show. This is a team that can attack offensively from every position except at C, and we expect a loose and aggressive approach under John Kuester. At the same time, the defensive chemistry is going to be a work in progress for most of the season, and the pieces simply may not fit together in that aspect of the game even when they have had the time to play together. Kuester already knows that it is difficult to have Gordon and Villanueva on the court at the same time because of their liabilities on that end, but it will also means plenty of scoring punch off of the bench. While Memphis lacks the history of Detroit, there are similarities in terms of how many new pieces are trying to come together going forward. Four of the five starters are in their first or second season in a Grizzly uniform, and while the individual talent is there to be able to attack and score in uptempo settings, the defense will have holes galore. They were 21st on our best set of defensive ratings LY, and we do not see any signs of improvement, particularly with Zach Randolph now ticketed for so many minutes. But with Mike Conley pushing the ball (5.7 assists per game after Lionel Hollins took over as coach, after just 3.0 previously), and having wing scorers in Randolph, Rudy Gay and O. J. Mayo, they can get out into the open court and make things happen. That will particularly be the case in the home opener against a vulnerable Detroit defense, and it creates an entirely different flow than what the oddsmakers are calling for.
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OVER 191.5,MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES -vs-Detroit Pistons
4* #711 DETROIT/MEMPHIS Over
The best value early in any sports season comes from teams that have had major changes that throw past data-bases completely out of play. That is what we are going to have on both sides of this equation, and the low Total set for this matchup shows how far behind we believe the oddsmakers are. The Pistons had a great chemistry for a lot of seasons, grinding down opponents with a patient half-court offense and that tenacious defense. Not anymore. It is a completely different mix now with the likes of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva on board, and in leading the team in scoring in the pre-season we also see the potential of Rodney Stuckey beginning to show. This is a team that can attack offensively from every position except at C, and we expect a loose and aggressive approach under John Kuester. At the same time, the defensive chemistry is going to be a work in progress for most of the season, and the pieces simply may not fit together in that aspect of the game even when they have had the time to play together. Kuester already knows that it is difficult to have Gordon and Villanueva on the court at the same time because of their liabilities on that end, but it will also means plenty of scoring punch off of the bench. While Memphis lacks the history of Detroit, there are similarities in terms of how many new pieces are trying to come together going forward. Four of the five starters are in their first or second season in a Grizzly uniform, and while the individual talent is there to be able to attack and score in uptempo settings, the defense will have holes galore. They were 21st on our best set of defensive ratings LY, and we do not see any signs of improvement, particularly with Zach Randolph now ticketed for so many minutes. But with Mike Conley pushing the ball (5.7 assists per game after Lionel Hollins took over as coach, after just 3.0 previously), and having wing scorers in Randolph, Rudy Gay and O. J. Mayo, they can get out into the open court and make things happen. That will particularly be the case in the home opener against a vulnerable Detroit defense, and it creates an entirely different flow than what the oddsmakers are calling for.
N/M, I found it, you have to click on Bonus Plays at the top.
<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td rowspan="2">Natural Born Thriller</td> <td align="middle">Wednesday, 10/28/2009</td> <td align="middle">Philadelphia Phillie</td> <td rowspan="2" align="middle">Under 7.5 </td> <td rowspan="2" align="middle">5</td></tr></tbody></table>
Evan Altemus
New York Knicks @ Miami Heat
Pick: 3 units: Under 208.5
New York was known for its high scoring and fast paced tempo last season, but they seem to be slowing things down much more. In addition, offenses are out of sync at the start of the season, so I expect it to be very difficult for these two teams to have a high enough shooting percentage to send this game over the total. Miami is not an up and down team as well, which makes it much harder for this game to go over the total. In addition, the Heat are playing at home, so they will look to control the tempo and play the game at a slower pace. Take the under.
New York Knicks @ Miami Heat
Pick: 3 units: Under 208.5
New York was known for its high scoring and fast paced tempo last season, but they seem to be slowing things down much more. In addition, offenses are out of sync at the start of the season, so I expect it to be very difficult for these two teams to have a high enough shooting percentage to send this game over the total. Miami is not an up and down team as well, which makes it much harder for this game to go over the total. In addition, the Heat are playing at home, so they will look to control the tempo and play the game at a slower pace. Take the under.
Freddy Wills Sportsbetcapping.com
Total Base props Game #1
Take Texeira -135 over Utley (1.5-Dime)
Rollins -125 over Damon (1-Dime)
Teixera again has the advantage based on how much he has seen Cliff Lee and a .391 average compared to Utley 0-3 vs. Sabathia and limited experience. Teixera started to turn the corner late in the Angels series while Utley remains ice cold. Sabathia dominates lefty's and Lee struggles vs. righties I'll take my chances with Teixera at -135.
Rollins -125 over Damon who has a .091 average against Lee. Rollins on the other hand a switch hitter should see the ball well coming out of Sabathias hands here on Wednesday. Rollins actually is 4-11 against Sabathia and should provide some pop in the lineup.
Anyone have his 5-Dime POD??
Payne Sports - Sportsbetcapping.com
He's been hitting at 65% for all sports last 30 days anyone have his NBA? Started 2-0 yesterday I got his plays then.. trying to see if someone wants to go in on a package or something PM me
Total Base props Game #1
Take Texeira -135 over Utley (1.5-Dime)
Rollins -125 over Damon (1-Dime)
Teixera again has the advantage based on how much he has seen Cliff Lee and a .391 average compared to Utley 0-3 vs. Sabathia and limited experience. Teixera started to turn the corner late in the Angels series while Utley remains ice cold. Sabathia dominates lefty's and Lee struggles vs. righties I'll take my chances with Teixera at -135.
Rollins -125 over Damon who has a .091 average against Lee. Rollins on the other hand a switch hitter should see the ball well coming out of Sabathias hands here on Wednesday. Rollins actually is 4-11 against Sabathia and should provide some pop in the lineup.
Anyone have his 5-Dime POD??
Payne Sports - Sportsbetcapping.com
He's been hitting at 65% for all sports last 30 days anyone have his NBA? Started 2-0 yesterday I got his plays then.. trying to see if someone wants to go in on a package or something PM me
Evan Altemus
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Philadelphia vs. Orlando
These two teams met last season in the NBA playoffs, and Orlando proved that they were the much better team. In addition, I feel that the Magic are still under-rated in the Eastern Conference, despite beating BOTH Boston and Cleveland in the playoffs. I also feel that this team will be better this season with a healthy Jameer Nelson, as well as Vince Carter entering the starting line-up. The Magic appeared very motivated in the preseason, as they crushed almost every opponent they faced. I feel that these are two teams heading in completely different directions. Look for Orlando to get a dominant opening night win at home by double digits.
3 UNIT SELECTION MAGIC.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Philadelphia vs. Orlando
These two teams met last season in the NBA playoffs, and Orlando proved that they were the much better team. In addition, I feel that the Magic are still under-rated in the Eastern Conference, despite beating BOTH Boston and Cleveland in the playoffs. I also feel that this team will be better this season with a healthy Jameer Nelson, as well as Vince Carter entering the starting line-up. The Magic appeared very motivated in the preseason, as they crushed almost every opponent they faced. I feel that these are two teams heading in completely different directions. Look for Orlando to get a dominant opening night win at home by double digits.
3 UNIT SELECTION MAGIC.[/FONT]
randall the handle
Buffalo +1.04 over NEW JERSEY (REG) Pinnacle
The Sabres are playing too good to ignore as a pooch and it’s not a fluke either. They’re getting tremendous contributions from everywhere. Ryan Miller is at the top of his game and when he’s on he’s one of the best. The defense, led by veteran Craig Rivet and youngsters Chris Butler and Tyler Myers gives the Sabres one of the best groups of top-3 d-men in the league. Up front, the Sabres are balanced and they’re scoring plenty. Buffalo has played just eight games, the least in the league, thus, they’re rested, healthy, confident and hungry. Incidentally, they also have the best winning percentage in the league. The Devils were just 3-3 before they went on an impressive three-game winning streak that included wins at the Rangers and Penguins. However, they’ve won just once in four home games and that was a hard-fought 2-0 win over Carolina. The Devils scored an empty-netter in that one. Bottom line is they’re struggling miserably at home and will come into this contest minus two more key players in Paul Martin and Jay Pandolfo. The Devils are always tough but again, the Sabres are about as sweet a dog as any on the board and are most certainly worthy of a wager. Play: Buffalo +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA +1.14 over Ottawa (REG) Pinnacle
The Panthers are about the least recognizable team on ice, as nobody cares, not even the locals, whether the Panthers win, lose or even play. However, this is a very decent hockey team that is very capable of winning on almost any night with a slew of good young talent (Horton, Frolik, Kulimov, Weiss, and Olesz to name a few). They’re also experienced and well represented on the blue-line. Yeah, they’re 2-6 but they started the year in Europe by splitting two games with Chicago and its last four games came against the Flyers twice, the Sabres and the Penguins. They beat the Flyers in Florida 4-2 and they lost 3-2 in OT in Pittsburgh. Now they’ll take a step down in class when facing the Sens. Ottawa is playing tough, make no mistake about that. However, politics has come into play, as the Sens sent down its prized rookie, Erik Karlsson, because if a junior plays 10 games his contract kicks in and he also becomes a free agent a year earlier. Yes, it’s a business but this move cannot be sitting well with the rest of the team, as they’ve played their hearts out thus far and this is a bit of a slap in the face. The Sens may respond well but we’ll have to wait and see. Furthermore, it appears as though Brian Elliot will make his first start of the year in net while Pascal Leclaire recovers from the flu. In the best of circumstances the Sens would be in tough here but this is anything but that. Give the Panthers a great chance to pick up its third win of the year. Play: Florida +1.14 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.80 over DALLAS (REG) Pinnacle
The Leafs finally got off the mattress with a very nice win in Anaheim. Toronto deserved the win, as they outplayed the Ducks in the final 50 minutes. Perhaps more important than that was the goaltending of rookie Jonas Gustavsson, who came up with some outstanding saves early in the game and the Leafs responded. That’s key, as the Leafs have been desperate for somebody to step it up in net for about five years. Despite losing two of its last three, Toronto has played extremely well over that stretch, as they deserved better against both Vancouver and the Rangers. Meanwhile, the Stars return home from a three-game trip to L.A, Anaheim and St. Louis. The Stars have performed a whole lot better on the road than at home where they have just one win in four tries. We get some good value on this guest, as Dallas is not in a favorable spot here, that being returning home from a trip and not playing well at home. The Leafs have strung together three strong games in a row and finally were able to savior the sweet taste of victory. Chances are good they’ll play another strong game tonight. Play: Toronto +1.80 (Risking 2 units).
Buffalo +1.04 over NEW JERSEY (REG) Pinnacle
The Sabres are playing too good to ignore as a pooch and it’s not a fluke either. They’re getting tremendous contributions from everywhere. Ryan Miller is at the top of his game and when he’s on he’s one of the best. The defense, led by veteran Craig Rivet and youngsters Chris Butler and Tyler Myers gives the Sabres one of the best groups of top-3 d-men in the league. Up front, the Sabres are balanced and they’re scoring plenty. Buffalo has played just eight games, the least in the league, thus, they’re rested, healthy, confident and hungry. Incidentally, they also have the best winning percentage in the league. The Devils were just 3-3 before they went on an impressive three-game winning streak that included wins at the Rangers and Penguins. However, they’ve won just once in four home games and that was a hard-fought 2-0 win over Carolina. The Devils scored an empty-netter in that one. Bottom line is they’re struggling miserably at home and will come into this contest minus two more key players in Paul Martin and Jay Pandolfo. The Devils are always tough but again, the Sabres are about as sweet a dog as any on the board and are most certainly worthy of a wager. Play: Buffalo +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA +1.14 over Ottawa (REG) Pinnacle
The Panthers are about the least recognizable team on ice, as nobody cares, not even the locals, whether the Panthers win, lose or even play. However, this is a very decent hockey team that is very capable of winning on almost any night with a slew of good young talent (Horton, Frolik, Kulimov, Weiss, and Olesz to name a few). They’re also experienced and well represented on the blue-line. Yeah, they’re 2-6 but they started the year in Europe by splitting two games with Chicago and its last four games came against the Flyers twice, the Sabres and the Penguins. They beat the Flyers in Florida 4-2 and they lost 3-2 in OT in Pittsburgh. Now they’ll take a step down in class when facing the Sens. Ottawa is playing tough, make no mistake about that. However, politics has come into play, as the Sens sent down its prized rookie, Erik Karlsson, because if a junior plays 10 games his contract kicks in and he also becomes a free agent a year earlier. Yes, it’s a business but this move cannot be sitting well with the rest of the team, as they’ve played their hearts out thus far and this is a bit of a slap in the face. The Sens may respond well but we’ll have to wait and see. Furthermore, it appears as though Brian Elliot will make his first start of the year in net while Pascal Leclaire recovers from the flu. In the best of circumstances the Sens would be in tough here but this is anything but that. Give the Panthers a great chance to pick up its third win of the year. Play: Florida +1.14 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.80 over DALLAS (REG) Pinnacle
The Leafs finally got off the mattress with a very nice win in Anaheim. Toronto deserved the win, as they outplayed the Ducks in the final 50 minutes. Perhaps more important than that was the goaltending of rookie Jonas Gustavsson, who came up with some outstanding saves early in the game and the Leafs responded. That’s key, as the Leafs have been desperate for somebody to step it up in net for about five years. Despite losing two of its last three, Toronto has played extremely well over that stretch, as they deserved better against both Vancouver and the Rangers. Meanwhile, the Stars return home from a three-game trip to L.A, Anaheim and St. Louis. The Stars have performed a whole lot better on the road than at home where they have just one win in four tries. We get some good value on this guest, as Dallas is not in a favorable spot here, that being returning home from a trip and not playing well at home. The Leafs have strung together three strong games in a row and finally were able to savior the sweet taste of victory. Chances are good they’ll play another strong game tonight. Play: Toronto +1.80 (Risking 2 units).
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
WORLD SERIES
Philadelphia (7-2) at N.Y. Yankees (7-2)
Back in the World Series for the second straight year, the Phillies send Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.22 ERA) to the Yankee Stadium mound while New York hands the ball to ace CC Sabathia (22-8, 3.17) in a Game 1 pitching matchup of ex-teammates and former Cy Young winners.
Philadelphia punched its second straight ticket to the Fall Classic with last Wednesday’s 10-4 home rout of the Dodgers in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series, the second time in as many years that the Phillies beat Los Angeles in five games to advance to the World Series. Last year, the Phillies won their first world title since 1980 by beating the Rays in five games in the World Series. Meanwhile, New York needed six games to dispose of the Angels in the American League Championship Series, clinching its 40th A.L. pennant and its first since 2003 with Sunday’s 5-2 home win.
Philadelphia, which knocked out the Rockies 3-1 in the best-of-5 National League Divisional Series, is 18-5 in its last 23 playoff contests, including 6-2 on the road (3-1 this year). Additionally, the defending champs are on positive runs of 6-1 overall, 10-3 as an underdog (8-3 as a road pup), 37-14 after an off day, 5-1 on Wednesday and 36-16 against left-handed starters. However, Philly has dropped nine of 12 interleague games, all against the A.L. East.
The Yankees swept the Twins in the ALDS and have won all five of their postseason home games this month. New York, which finished with baseball’s best regular-season record, sports impressive runs of 48-19 overall, 41-10 in the Bronx, 40-12 as a favorite, 43-14 on Wednesday, 37-14 against left-handed starters, 51-20 at home versus southpaws, 5-0 in interleague play (all against the N.L. East) and 58-25 when hosting National League opponents. Additionally, Joe Girardi’s club has won seven straight playoff games as a favorite and eight of 10 at home in the World Series. However, the 26-time world champs came up short in their last two World Series appearances, losing to the Diamondbacks in 2001 and the Marlins in 2003.
Philadelphia went to the Bronx in late May and took two of three in a weekend interleague series. The Phillies won 7-3 and 4-3, with the Yankees rallying for a 5-4 victory in the middle game of the set, scoring three runs in the bottom of the ninth off Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge. Prior to this year, New York had been 7-3 in interleague play against the Phillies going back to 1999, and the visitor has won six of the last eight meetings.
Lee is 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA in three playoff starts, all Philadelphia wins. He gave up just four runs (two earned) in 24 1/3 innings with three walks against 20 strikeouts. Since joining the Phillies in late July, Lee is 9-4 with a 2.77 ERA in 15 starts, including 4-2 with a 3.68 ERA in eight road efforts. The Phillies are 11-4 behind last year’s A.L. Cy Young winner (6-2 on the road).
Lee faced the Yankees twice this season with Cleveland. He gave up one run on six hits in a 10-2 victory in the Bronx on April 16, but six weeks later he lost 3-1 at home, yielding all three runs on nine hits in six innings. For his career, Lee is 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA in nine starts against New York (3-2 with a 4.94 ERA in five games at both new and old Yankee Stadium).
Like his former Indians teammate, Sabathia was flat-out dominant in the opening rounds of this postseason, going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA. He gave up one earned run in each game over a total of 22 2/3 innings – including a pair of eight-inning efforts against the Angels in the ALCS – and like Lee, he had a 20-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the playoffs.
Eliminate an awful regular-season finale against Tampa Bay (nine runs, five earned, in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-4 loss) and Sabathia has delivered 13 consecutive quality starts while posting a 1.52 ERA (16 earned runs allowed in 95 innings). Even with the bad outing at Tampa, New York is 14-1 in Sabathia’s last 15 trips the hill, all multiple-run victories. Additionally, with the hefty lefty starting, the Yankees are on runs of 9-0 at home and 10-1 against winning clubs.
Sabathia was on the mound on May 24 when the Yankees lost 4-3 to the Phillies. He didn’t factor in the decision, though, giving up three runs on five hits in seven innings. With the Brewers, Sabathia faced the Phillies in Game 1 of the NLDS last year, getting rocked for five runs on six hits and four walks in 3 2/3 innings, losing 5-2. Prior to that, he faced Philadelphia twice in interleague play with the Indians – once in 2002, once in 2007 -- going 1-1 with a 4.97 ERA, meaning the Phillies are 3-1 all-time when facing Sabathia.
All three Yankees-Phillies games in New York back in May stayed under the total, and the under is 7-1 the past eight meetings overall and 4-0 in the last four in the Bronx.
As a team, Philadelphia carries “over” trends of 18-6-2 overall, 6-1-1 in the playoffs, 13-3 on the road, 4-0 after an off day, 5-1-1 in the opening game of a series and 5-2 as an underdog. However, the under is 9-2-1 in the Phillies’ last 12 interleague road games, 3-1-1 in their last five against the A.L. East and 9-4-1 in their last 14 as an underdog in interleague action.
New York is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 6-2-1 overall, 10-1-1 at home, 15-4-2 after a victory, 16-6 in interleague play, 15-6 versus the N.L. East, 7-3-1 against left-handed starters, 5-0 on Wednesday, 5-1-1 after an off day, 6-0 in World Series home games and 7-1-1 when Sabathia pitches at Yankee Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
NBA
Philadelphia at Orlando
The Magic begin their quest for a return trip to the NBA Finals when they open the season by hosting the 76ers at Amway Arena.
Philadelphia went 41-41 last year (36-44-2 ATS), but that was good enough for a second-place finish in the Atlantic Division and a second straight trip to the playoffs. However, as was the case in 2007, the 76ers got bounced in the first round in six games, this time losing to Orlando. Although Philadelphia went 4-2 ATS in the six-game series loss to the Magic, they finished the regular season in a 1-6 SU and ATS funk.
Orlando’s second-ever NBA Finals appearance was a brief one, as it lost to the Lakers in five games (1-4 ATS). The Magic did roll to the Southeast Division title and No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference with a 59-23 regular-season mark (49-32-1 ATS), winning 32 of 41 home games. However, Stan Van Gundy’s squad failed to cover in five of its last six regular-season contests.
In addition to eliminating Philadelphia in six games in the playoffs, the Magic went 3-0 SU and ATS against the Sixers in the regular season, and Orlando has won and covered four straight regular-season matchups. Additionally, the Magic are 5-0 (4-1 ATS) in the last five regular-season clashes at Amway Arena.
The Sixers lost five of their final six regular-season road games last season both SU and ATS, the only win coming in a meaningless regular-season finale at Cleveland, a 111-110 overtime triumph with LeBron James and several Cavs starters sitting out. Meanwhile, the Magic went 7-1 ATS in their last eight Eastern Conference playoff games, but have failed to cover in 13 of 19 against Atlantic Division foes and five of seven on Wednesday.
The under was 4-1 in the final five games of last year’s Sixers-Magic playoff series. Also, the under is on runs of 15-7 in Orlando’s last 22 home games and 7-2 in its last nine on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
New Orleans at San Antonio
Two Southwest Division rivals with NBA championship aspirations get together for the first of four times this year, with the Hornets visiting the Spurs at A&T Center.
After a solid 49-33 regular season (35-45-2 ATS), New Orleans got dumped in the first round of the playoffs last year by the Nuggets, losing the best-of-seven series in five games. The one victory was a two-point nail-bitter, while the four defeats came by point margins of 39, 15, 58 and 21 points. Including the playoffs, the Hornets went 3-10 SU and ATS to end last season.
San Antonio was 54-28 (40-40-2 ATS) in the regular season last year, edging the Rockets by one game in the Southwest race. However, the Spurs failed to get out of the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2000, getting upended by the Mavericks in five games (1-4 ATS). Gregg Popovich’s squad won nine of its last 13 regular-season games, including the last four in a row, but including the playoffs, the Spurs closed the season in a 7-15 ATS slump.
The home team swept last year’s four-game season series, but the Hornets went 3-1 ATS. Including a 2008 playoff series, the host has won 12 of the last 13 meetings (11-2 ATS). San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings at AT&T Center, and the favorite has cashed in eight of the last 11 in this rivalry.
Including the playoffs, the Hornets failed to cover in five of their last six road games and five of their last seven on Wednesday. San Antonio enters this season in ATS ruts of 3-10 overall, 3-10 at home, 3-11 on Wednesday and 1-7 against division rivals.
The under is 17-7 in New Orleans’ last 24 contests overall, 18-7 in its last 25 against Southwest Division foes and 6-2 in the last eight meetings in this rivalry. However, the Spurs carry “over” trends of 5-1 overall, 5-0 at home and 4-1 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO
Utah at Denver
The Nuggets play their first meaningful basketball game since getting bounced by the eventual-champion Lakers in last year’s playoffs, as they host Northwest Division rival Utah at the Pepsi Center.
Denver (54-28, 44-37-1 ATS last year) tied with the Blazers for the Northwest title last year, but won a tiebreaker to earn the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. The Nuggets rolled over the Hornets and Mavericks in the first two rounds, going 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS, before losing to Los Angeles in six games in the conference finals. Before ending the year with losses of 103-94 and 119-92 to the Lakers, Denver had started the postseason 10-4 SU and 13-1 ATS, with the four losses coming by 2, 2, 2 and 6 points.
Utah (48-34, 39-43 ATS) finished just six games behind Denver in the Northwest, but barely held off Phoenix for the eighth and final Western Conference playoff berth. However, the Jazz didn’t hang around long, losing to the Lakers in five games (3-2 ATS). Including the postseason, Utah lost 11 of its final 14 games while going 7-16 ATS in its last 23.
The home team swept last year’s four-game season series, but the Nuggets got the cash in each contest. The host is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings, including Utah’s 98-94 victory as an eight-point home favorite in last year’s season-opener for both teams. The favorite is 22-10-1 ATS in the last 33 head-to-head matchups.
In addition to its 7-16 overall ATS drought, Utah has failed to cover in 10 of its last 14 on the road and each of its last four on Wednesday. Denver went 8-2 ATS in its 10 playoff home games last spring and enters this year on a 21-7 ATS run overall.
The over is on runs of 9-1 for the Jazz on the road, 7-2 for the Jazz on Wednesday, 5-2 for the Jazz against the Northwest Division and 4-1 for Denver at home. Also, four of the last five series meetings in Denver have hurdled the total, but the under is 4-1 in the last five clashes overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
WORLD SERIES
Philadelphia (7-2) at N.Y. Yankees (7-2)
Back in the World Series for the second straight year, the Phillies send Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.22 ERA) to the Yankee Stadium mound while New York hands the ball to ace CC Sabathia (22-8, 3.17) in a Game 1 pitching matchup of ex-teammates and former Cy Young winners.
Philadelphia punched its second straight ticket to the Fall Classic with last Wednesday’s 10-4 home rout of the Dodgers in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series, the second time in as many years that the Phillies beat Los Angeles in five games to advance to the World Series. Last year, the Phillies won their first world title since 1980 by beating the Rays in five games in the World Series. Meanwhile, New York needed six games to dispose of the Angels in the American League Championship Series, clinching its 40th A.L. pennant and its first since 2003 with Sunday’s 5-2 home win.
Philadelphia, which knocked out the Rockies 3-1 in the best-of-5 National League Divisional Series, is 18-5 in its last 23 playoff contests, including 6-2 on the road (3-1 this year). Additionally, the defending champs are on positive runs of 6-1 overall, 10-3 as an underdog (8-3 as a road pup), 37-14 after an off day, 5-1 on Wednesday and 36-16 against left-handed starters. However, Philly has dropped nine of 12 interleague games, all against the A.L. East.
The Yankees swept the Twins in the ALDS and have won all five of their postseason home games this month. New York, which finished with baseball’s best regular-season record, sports impressive runs of 48-19 overall, 41-10 in the Bronx, 40-12 as a favorite, 43-14 on Wednesday, 37-14 against left-handed starters, 51-20 at home versus southpaws, 5-0 in interleague play (all against the N.L. East) and 58-25 when hosting National League opponents. Additionally, Joe Girardi’s club has won seven straight playoff games as a favorite and eight of 10 at home in the World Series. However, the 26-time world champs came up short in their last two World Series appearances, losing to the Diamondbacks in 2001 and the Marlins in 2003.
Philadelphia went to the Bronx in late May and took two of three in a weekend interleague series. The Phillies won 7-3 and 4-3, with the Yankees rallying for a 5-4 victory in the middle game of the set, scoring three runs in the bottom of the ninth off Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge. Prior to this year, New York had been 7-3 in interleague play against the Phillies going back to 1999, and the visitor has won six of the last eight meetings.
Lee is 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA in three playoff starts, all Philadelphia wins. He gave up just four runs (two earned) in 24 1/3 innings with three walks against 20 strikeouts. Since joining the Phillies in late July, Lee is 9-4 with a 2.77 ERA in 15 starts, including 4-2 with a 3.68 ERA in eight road efforts. The Phillies are 11-4 behind last year’s A.L. Cy Young winner (6-2 on the road).
Lee faced the Yankees twice this season with Cleveland. He gave up one run on six hits in a 10-2 victory in the Bronx on April 16, but six weeks later he lost 3-1 at home, yielding all three runs on nine hits in six innings. For his career, Lee is 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA in nine starts against New York (3-2 with a 4.94 ERA in five games at both new and old Yankee Stadium).
Like his former Indians teammate, Sabathia was flat-out dominant in the opening rounds of this postseason, going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA. He gave up one earned run in each game over a total of 22 2/3 innings – including a pair of eight-inning efforts against the Angels in the ALCS – and like Lee, he had a 20-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the playoffs.
Eliminate an awful regular-season finale against Tampa Bay (nine runs, five earned, in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-4 loss) and Sabathia has delivered 13 consecutive quality starts while posting a 1.52 ERA (16 earned runs allowed in 95 innings). Even with the bad outing at Tampa, New York is 14-1 in Sabathia’s last 15 trips the hill, all multiple-run victories. Additionally, with the hefty lefty starting, the Yankees are on runs of 9-0 at home and 10-1 against winning clubs.
Sabathia was on the mound on May 24 when the Yankees lost 4-3 to the Phillies. He didn’t factor in the decision, though, giving up three runs on five hits in seven innings. With the Brewers, Sabathia faced the Phillies in Game 1 of the NLDS last year, getting rocked for five runs on six hits and four walks in 3 2/3 innings, losing 5-2. Prior to that, he faced Philadelphia twice in interleague play with the Indians – once in 2002, once in 2007 -- going 1-1 with a 4.97 ERA, meaning the Phillies are 3-1 all-time when facing Sabathia.
All three Yankees-Phillies games in New York back in May stayed under the total, and the under is 7-1 the past eight meetings overall and 4-0 in the last four in the Bronx.
As a team, Philadelphia carries “over” trends of 18-6-2 overall, 6-1-1 in the playoffs, 13-3 on the road, 4-0 after an off day, 5-1-1 in the opening game of a series and 5-2 as an underdog. However, the under is 9-2-1 in the Phillies’ last 12 interleague road games, 3-1-1 in their last five against the A.L. East and 9-4-1 in their last 14 as an underdog in interleague action.
New York is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 6-2-1 overall, 10-1-1 at home, 15-4-2 after a victory, 16-6 in interleague play, 15-6 versus the N.L. East, 7-3-1 against left-handed starters, 5-0 on Wednesday, 5-1-1 after an off day, 6-0 in World Series home games and 7-1-1 when Sabathia pitches at Yankee Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
NBA
Philadelphia at Orlando
The Magic begin their quest for a return trip to the NBA Finals when they open the season by hosting the 76ers at Amway Arena.
Philadelphia went 41-41 last year (36-44-2 ATS), but that was good enough for a second-place finish in the Atlantic Division and a second straight trip to the playoffs. However, as was the case in 2007, the 76ers got bounced in the first round in six games, this time losing to Orlando. Although Philadelphia went 4-2 ATS in the six-game series loss to the Magic, they finished the regular season in a 1-6 SU and ATS funk.
Orlando’s second-ever NBA Finals appearance was a brief one, as it lost to the Lakers in five games (1-4 ATS). The Magic did roll to the Southeast Division title and No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference with a 59-23 regular-season mark (49-32-1 ATS), winning 32 of 41 home games. However, Stan Van Gundy’s squad failed to cover in five of its last six regular-season contests.
In addition to eliminating Philadelphia in six games in the playoffs, the Magic went 3-0 SU and ATS against the Sixers in the regular season, and Orlando has won and covered four straight regular-season matchups. Additionally, the Magic are 5-0 (4-1 ATS) in the last five regular-season clashes at Amway Arena.
The Sixers lost five of their final six regular-season road games last season both SU and ATS, the only win coming in a meaningless regular-season finale at Cleveland, a 111-110 overtime triumph with LeBron James and several Cavs starters sitting out. Meanwhile, the Magic went 7-1 ATS in their last eight Eastern Conference playoff games, but have failed to cover in 13 of 19 against Atlantic Division foes and five of seven on Wednesday.
The under was 4-1 in the final five games of last year’s Sixers-Magic playoff series. Also, the under is on runs of 15-7 in Orlando’s last 22 home games and 7-2 in its last nine on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
New Orleans at San Antonio
Two Southwest Division rivals with NBA championship aspirations get together for the first of four times this year, with the Hornets visiting the Spurs at A&T Center.
After a solid 49-33 regular season (35-45-2 ATS), New Orleans got dumped in the first round of the playoffs last year by the Nuggets, losing the best-of-seven series in five games. The one victory was a two-point nail-bitter, while the four defeats came by point margins of 39, 15, 58 and 21 points. Including the playoffs, the Hornets went 3-10 SU and ATS to end last season.
San Antonio was 54-28 (40-40-2 ATS) in the regular season last year, edging the Rockets by one game in the Southwest race. However, the Spurs failed to get out of the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2000, getting upended by the Mavericks in five games (1-4 ATS). Gregg Popovich’s squad won nine of its last 13 regular-season games, including the last four in a row, but including the playoffs, the Spurs closed the season in a 7-15 ATS slump.
The home team swept last year’s four-game season series, but the Hornets went 3-1 ATS. Including a 2008 playoff series, the host has won 12 of the last 13 meetings (11-2 ATS). San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings at AT&T Center, and the favorite has cashed in eight of the last 11 in this rivalry.
Including the playoffs, the Hornets failed to cover in five of their last six road games and five of their last seven on Wednesday. San Antonio enters this season in ATS ruts of 3-10 overall, 3-10 at home, 3-11 on Wednesday and 1-7 against division rivals.
The under is 17-7 in New Orleans’ last 24 contests overall, 18-7 in its last 25 against Southwest Division foes and 6-2 in the last eight meetings in this rivalry. However, the Spurs carry “over” trends of 5-1 overall, 5-0 at home and 4-1 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO
Utah at Denver
The Nuggets play their first meaningful basketball game since getting bounced by the eventual-champion Lakers in last year’s playoffs, as they host Northwest Division rival Utah at the Pepsi Center.
Denver (54-28, 44-37-1 ATS last year) tied with the Blazers for the Northwest title last year, but won a tiebreaker to earn the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. The Nuggets rolled over the Hornets and Mavericks in the first two rounds, going 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS, before losing to Los Angeles in six games in the conference finals. Before ending the year with losses of 103-94 and 119-92 to the Lakers, Denver had started the postseason 10-4 SU and 13-1 ATS, with the four losses coming by 2, 2, 2 and 6 points.
Utah (48-34, 39-43 ATS) finished just six games behind Denver in the Northwest, but barely held off Phoenix for the eighth and final Western Conference playoff berth. However, the Jazz didn’t hang around long, losing to the Lakers in five games (3-2 ATS). Including the postseason, Utah lost 11 of its final 14 games while going 7-16 ATS in its last 23.
The home team swept last year’s four-game season series, but the Nuggets got the cash in each contest. The host is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings, including Utah’s 98-94 victory as an eight-point home favorite in last year’s season-opener for both teams. The favorite is 22-10-1 ATS in the last 33 head-to-head matchups.
In addition to its 7-16 overall ATS drought, Utah has failed to cover in 10 of its last 14 on the road and each of its last four on Wednesday. Denver went 8-2 ATS in its 10 playoff home games last spring and enters this year on a 21-7 ATS run overall.
The over is on runs of 9-1 for the Jazz on the road, 7-2 for the Jazz on Wednesday, 5-2 for the Jazz against the Northwest Division and 4-1 for Denver at home. Also, four of the last five series meetings in Denver have hurdled the total, but the under is 4-1 in the last five clashes overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
Dr Bob
NBA Opinion
Phoenix (-3) over L.A. CLIPPERS
The Clippers played pretty well last night in their 92-99 loss as an 11 point dog to the Lakers, but Los Angeles applies to a negative 33-71-1 ATS early season indicator. The line on this game opened at -1 1/2 and is now at 13 and I would have made it Suns by 2 1/2, so there is at least 1/2 a point of negative line value. The situation is still good enough to lean with Phoenix at -3 but I'll wait for better opportunities that will arise when the strongest early season indicators start to apply later this week.
NBA Opinion
Cleveland (-6) over TORONTO
Cleveland was 15-4 ATS after a loss last season and 56-28-1 ATS in their last 85 games after a loss when not laying more than 7 points. With that being the case I expect the Cavs to bounce-back from last night's loss to Boston with a good effort tonight against what I think will be another sub-par Toronto team. My ratings favor Cleveland by 6 1/2 after adjusting for the Cavs' lack of rest, so the line is fair and Cleveland will be motivated.
NBA Opinion
Phoenix (-3) over L.A. CLIPPERS
The Clippers played pretty well last night in their 92-99 loss as an 11 point dog to the Lakers, but Los Angeles applies to a negative 33-71-1 ATS early season indicator. The line on this game opened at -1 1/2 and is now at 13 and I would have made it Suns by 2 1/2, so there is at least 1/2 a point of negative line value. The situation is still good enough to lean with Phoenix at -3 but I'll wait for better opportunities that will arise when the strongest early season indicators start to apply later this week.
NBA Opinion
Cleveland (-6) over TORONTO
Cleveland was 15-4 ATS after a loss last season and 56-28-1 ATS in their last 85 games after a loss when not laying more than 7 points. With that being the case I expect the Cavs to bounce-back from last night's loss to Boston with a good effort tonight against what I think will be another sub-par Toronto team. My ratings favor Cleveland by 6 1/2 after adjusting for the Cavs' lack of rest, so the line is fair and Cleveland will be motivated.
