Stephen Nover
Wednesday's Pick 100 Dime - Troy
Note: This line is between -2 and -3.5 depending on where you shop here in Vegas or offshore. That's certainly a wide range so it's important you shop for the best price. Equally as important: go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point for insurance if your number is -3 or -3.5 (or even -4).
Analysis:
The oddsmaker got it wrong. Troy is the better team and should be the favorite. Nonetheless, buy the half-point in order to lock in at a key number.
Troy is by far the strongest team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Trojans have dominated this conference winning or sharing the title in each of the last four years. Some of the bottom Sun Belt teams are weak, but I would equate Troy as an upper tier Conference USA type of quality.
Central Michigan isn't in that class. The Mid-American Conference is weak and has been exposed during the bowls. Here's what MAC teams have done in the bowls:
Northern Illinois lost 27-3 to South Florida, a team that tied for fifth in the Big East. That was a pointspread loss of 17 1/2 points for Northern Illinois.
Temple lost to UCLA 30-21, a spread loss of five points for the Owls. UCLA had the seventh-best record in the Pac 10, which was down this season.
Ohio lost 21-17 to Marshall, a seven-point spread loss. Marshall was lucky to even get a bowl bid after tying for fifth in Conference USA with a 6-6 mark.
Bowling Green was nipped 43-42 by Idaho, a one-point spread loss. Idaho was 8-5 in the Western Athletic Conference and one of the worst defensive teams in the nation.
Looking at Central Michigan out of conference the Chippewas upset Michigan State 29-27 as a 14 1/2-point road 'dog during the second week of the season. That was their lone impressive non-conference showing versus a bowl team. The game was played in Michigan and the Spartans later lost 41-31 to Texas Tech in their bowl game.
Central Michigan had opened its season losing to Arizona, 19-6. The Wildcats were blanked by Nebraska, 33-0, in their bowl game.
Central Michigan's other key non-conference game was against Boston College, a team that went 8-5 in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Boston College rolled over Central Michigan, 31-10, easily covering as 5 1/2-point favorites. Boston College went on to lose to a down USC team, 24-13, in its bowl game.
Both Central Michigan and Troy have excellent senior quarterbacks. But Troy's record-setting quarterback Levi Brown has more weapons with one of the deepest corps of receivers of any team in the country. The Trojans have too much speed at the flanks for Central Michigan to contain them.
Troy's seniors may have faced the toughest schedule during the past four years of any school. The Trojans are focused and battle-tested. They also will have a huge crowd advantage being 173 miles from Mobile, Ala., from their campus in Troy. Don't expect many Central Michigan fans to make the trek from their state in these tough economic times.
Central Michigan isn't used to traveling out of state. The Chippewas have played in Detroit in the Motor City Bowl the past three seasons. The last time they went to a bowl game outside of Michigan was 1994.
Last year, Central Michigan was upset by Florida Atlantic of the Sun Belt Conference, 24-21, as a seven-point favorite. That Florida Atlantic team was mediocre, not nearly as good as this year's Troy squad.
Unlike Troy, Central Michigan has had distractions. Its coach, Butch Jones, left to replace Brian Kelly at Cincinnati. Associate coach Steve Stripling is running the team on an interim basis.
