SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
GMAC BOWL
(at Mobile, Ala.)
Troy (9-3, 8-4 ATS) vs. (25) Central Michigan (11-2, 9-3 ATS)
In a matchup of two of the most exciting quarterbacks in college football, conference champions Troy and Central Michigan will square off inside Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Ala.
The Trojans, winners of the Sun Belt Conference, showed they can light up the scoreboard this season, putting up 33.1 points per game while ranking third in the Football Bowl Subdivision at 480.7 yards per contest and fourth in the country with 331 yards passing per game. Troy, which ranked 18th nationally in scoring, topped the 40-point mark in six of their final seven games with the only exception coming in a 56-20 loss at SEC power Arkansas, falling as a 14-point underdog.
Central Michigan ranks one spot ahead of Troy in points scored at 33.2 ppg, and manages 417.7 total yards per game (32nd in the country), including 172.9 rushing yards per game (41st). The Chippewas beat Ohio 20-10 in the Mid-American Conference title game Dec. 4, coming up short as 13½-point favorites. Central Michigan finished undefeated in conference play en route to its third MAC crown in the last four years, and enters this game on a four-game overall winning streak (3-1 ATS).
The Trojans are in their second consecutive bowl game and fourth in school history, all since 2004. Their last two postseason trips were to the New Orleans Bowl, beating Rice 41-17 in 2006 as a 4½-point underdog for their first bowl victory, followed by last year’s 30-27 overtime loss to Southern Mississippi as a 4½-point favorite.
Central Michigan is playing in its fourth consecutive bowl game, the first three coming in the Motor City Bowl. The Chippewas fell to Sun Belt foe Florida Atlantic 24-21 as seven-point favorites last season and last won a postseason game in 2006 when they clobbered Middle Tennessee (also from the Sun Belt) 31-14 as 8½-point favorites.
The battle of quarterbacks puts Troy senior Levi Brown up against Central Michigan’s four-year starter Dan LeFevour. Brown ranks second in the nation with 322.3 passing yards per game and his 3,868 yards passing was a record for both Troy and the Sun Belt Conference. LeFevour completes 71.2 percent of his throws and he had 27 TD strikes this season to go with 14 scoring runs. His 147 career touchdowns set the major college football mark he previously shared with former Hawaii QB Colt Brennan and ex-Texas Tech signal caller Graham Harrell.
Troy is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games, but it is on pointspread surges of 8-2 overall, 6-1 after a spread-cover, 20-8 after a straight-up win and 5-2 against teams with a winning record. Central Michigan is on positive ATS streaks of 39-16-2 overall, 25-9-2 as a favorite, 11-2-1 after a non-cover and 5-2 after a straight-up win.
The Trojans are on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 6-1 overall, 10-1 as an underdog, 10-4 in non-conference games and 5-1 after a straight-up win. The Chippewas have topped the posted total in 11 of 17 non-conference games and nine of 11 after a non-cover, but Central Michigan is also on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in neutral-site games and 4-0 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(17) Wisconsin (12-2, 8-4 ATS) at (10) Michigan State (11-3, 4-9 ATS)
Today’s lone matchup of Top 25 teams comes from the Breslin Events Center in East Lansing, Mich., where the 10th-ranked Spartans look to end Wisconsin’s six-game winning streak.
The Badgers have rebounded nicely from a surprising four-point overtime loss at Wisconsin-Green Bay, ripping off six straight wins of nine points or more. That includes opening Big Ten play with a pair of blowout victories over Ohio State (65-43 as a six-point favorite on New Year’s Eve) and Penn State (63-46 as a five-point chalk on Sunday). Wisconsin (5-1 ATS during its winning streak), has yielded 63, 42, 58, 43, 43 and 46 points during its run, and it now ranks fifth in the nation in scoring defense at 56.4 ppg.
Michigan State tipped off the conference campaign with Saturday’s 91-70 rout of No. 25 Northwestern, easily covering as a 5½-point road chalk to end a 1-6 ATS slide. The Spartans are 5-1 SU in their last six games, with the lone setback being a 79-68 loss at No. 2 Texas as a 9½ -point underdog on Dec. 22. While the Badgers excel on defense, Michigan State sports a solid scoring unit that has produced at least 68 points in every game this year, including 80 or more eight times (four times in the last five games). Tom Izzo’s team averages 82.4 ppg (50.7 percent shooting).
The Spartans pummeled Wisconsin 61-50 in last year’s lone meeting, covering as an eight-point home favorite. The host has won eight consecutive regular-season meetings (7-1 ATS) between these teams going back to the 2004-05 season. Most recently, Michigan State has covered in five of the last seven battles overall (including in the conference tournament), and the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10.
In addition to their 5-1 ATS surge overall, the Badgers have cashed in 13 of their last 18 games on Wednesday and five of their last seven against opponents with a winning record. Conversely, Michigan State is in a slew of pointspread slumps, including 2-6 overall, 1-4 at home, 1-7 against winning teams, 1-3-1 on Wednesday, 3-8 after a SU win and 0-4 after a spread-cover. The Spartans have yet to cash in back-to-back games this year.
For Wisconsin, the under is on runs of 5-0 overall, 7-1 on the highway, 8-1 in Big Ten action, 35-16-1 after a SU win and 37-15 after a spread cover, though 10 of its last 14 Wednesday contests have topped the total. Michigan State has stayed low in nine of 12 conference contests and five of seven against winning teams. Lastly, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these rivals and 5-2 in the last seven in East Lansing.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Memphis (10-3, 2-5 ATS) at (7) Syracuse (13-1, 7-3 ATS)
Syracuse returns to the court for the first time since losing its first contest of the year when it hosts the Tigers at the Carrier Dome in a non-conference clash.
Memphis has followed up a six-game winning streak by going 3-2 SU in its last five (0-3 ATS in lined action). The victories came against cupcakes Southeast Missouri State (87-57), Indiana-Purdue (87-67) and Houston Baptists (93-52), while the losses were to UMass (73-72 as a whopping 14-point neutral-site chalk) and 14th-ranked Tennessee (66-59 as a 2½-point home favorite). Besides Tennessee, the Tigers have faced only one other ranked opponent this year, losing a nail-biter to No. 1 Kansas 57-55, but easily covering as a 10½-point underdog in Kansas City. Memphis has averaged just 62 ppg in its three losses, compared with 83.2 ppg in its 10 wins.
After a perfect non-conference season, Syracuse stumbled in its Big East debut Saturday, falling 82-72 to Pitt as a huge 11-point favorite. It was the first time all year the Orange were held under 75 points, as they’ve scored 80 or more 11 times, 90 or more five times and reached triple digits twice. For the season, Jim Boeheim’s group is putting up 86.6 ppg on 53.7 percent shooting, figures that rank fourth and first in the nation, respectively.
Syracuse traveled to Memphis in December 2008 and shocked the Tigers 72-65 as a nine-point road underdog, four years after beating them 77-62 as a 2½-point chalk at Madison Square Garden in New York.
Since cashing against top-ranked Kansas, Memphis has gone 1-5 ATS in lined action. However, the Tigers are on positive pointspread rolls of 4-0 on Wednesday and 14-5 against winning teams. Meanwhile, despite the loss to Pitt, Syracuse is on ATS runs of 16-5 overall, 10-3 at home, 9-3 in non-conference play, 12-5 versus winning teams, 4-1 after a SU loss, 5-1-1 after a double-digit home defeat and 4-1 after a non-cover.
Memphis has topped the total in eight of its last 10 games against Big East opponents, but is otherwise on “under” stretches of 15-7 overall, 6-2 on the road and 15-6 after a SU win. The Orange are 5-1-1 “under” in their last six against Conference USA squads, but they otherwise sport “over” streaks of 11-3 overall, 8-3 at home, 5-1 in non-conference play and 4-1 both after a SU and ATS defeat. Finally, the under is 2-0-1 in the three meetings between these schools since 2002.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SYRACUSE
(12) Georgetown (11-1, 5-3 ATS) at Marquette (9-5, 4-4 ATS)
The Hoyas face easily their toughest true road test of the season when they trek to the Bradley Center in Milwaukee for a Big East battle with Marquette.
Georgetown has ripped off three straight wins – including two to start off conference play – since suffering its first setback of the season on Dec. 19 (61-57 home loss to Old Dominion). On Sunday, the Hoyas went to DePaul and trashed the Blue Demons 67-50 as a nine-point favorite. They’ve allowed just one opponent (Harvard) to score more than 66 points this year, holding foes to 57.5 ppg on 37.8 percent shooting. Georgetown is 3-0 in true road games this year, but those came against Tulane, Savannah State and DePaul.
The Warriors have started the Big East season with two heartbreaking losses, first falling to No. 6 West Virginia 63-62 as a 12½-point underdog on Dec. 29, then returning home Saturday and losing 74-72 to No. 8 Villanova as a one-point ‘dog. Marquette has faced four Top 20 opponents since the day after Thanksgiving, going 1-3 SU and ATS, but three of those games were on the road. The Warriors started out 6-0, but are 3-5 since (3-2 at home).
Marquette swept last year’s season series against the Hoyas, winning 94-82 as a six-point home favorite and 78-72 as a 3½-point road ‘dog. Since the Warriors joined the Big East, the teams have split six meetings, with Marquette holding a slim 3-2-1 ATS edge. The winner is 5-0-1 ATS in those six contests.
The Hoyas have cashed in four straight lined road games and are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 Wednesday outings, but they’re also in ATS funks of 5-17 in Big East play, 3-7-1 after a SU win and 6-20-1 when coming off a spread-cover. In fact, Georgetown has covered in consecutive contests just once since January of last year, a stretch of 28 lined games. Marquette is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 after a defeat and 2-7 ATS in its last nine lined home games.
Georgetown sports “under” trends of 4-1 overall, 21-10 on the highway, 5-1 in Big East action, 4-0 after a victory and 41-19 after an ATS triumph. The under is also 4-1 in Marquette’s last five home games. On the flip side, the last four matchups between these schools have jumped over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Boston (24-8, 14-18 ATS) at Miami (17-15, 16-16 ATS)
The depleted Celtics, who just recently concluded a four-game road swing, kick off a three-game trip with a visit to American Airlines Arena for a battle with Dwyane Wade and the Heat.
Boston, in the midst of playing seven of eight games away from Beantown, returned from its four-game journey on Saturday and took down the Raptors 103-96, cashing as just a three-point favorite. Six players scored in double figures for the Celtics, who snapped a three-game SU and ATS losing skid even though stars Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett sat out with injuries. Even though Boston has had three days off, Pierce and Garnett are out for at least another week, while Rondo is questionable tonight.
Miami also halted a three-game SU and ATS slide in its most recent trip to the court, upending Southeast Division rival Atlanta 92-75 on Monday, cashing as a two-point home underdog. Despite the presence of Wade (fifth in the league in scoring at 26.4 ppg), the Heat continue to struggle offensively, scoring in triple digits just once in their last eight games, averaging just 89.1 ppg in the other seven contests.
The Celtics have owned this rivalry, winning three in a row (2-1 ATS) and nine of the last 10 (7-3 ATS), including a 92-85 victory as a four-point favorite in this year’s first meeting on Nov. 29. During this 10-game stretch, Boston is 5-1 SU and ATS in South Beach, and the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the past eight matchups.
The SU winner has covered the spread in each of the Heat’s last 13 games and 29 of the their 32 contests this season, and the winner is 8-2 ATS in Boston’s last 10 and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 clashes between these squads.
Boston won 11 of its first 12 road games, but it went 0-3 SU and ATS to end its most recent road trip, falling to 8-9 ATS as a visitor (2-5 ATS last seven). The Celtics are also in pointspread ruts of 1-4 after a SU victory, 0-4 after a spread-cover, 1-4 on Wednesday and 2-5 when playing after three or more days of rest. However, Doc Rivers’ club has cashed in four of its last five against winning teams.
Miami has dropped six of its last 11 home games (including the seven-point loss to Boston on Nov. 29), but it has followed an 0-8 ATS drought at American Airlines Arena by cashing in five of its last seven as a host. Miami is also 5-1 ATS in its last six against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 ATS in its last six when going after one day of rest and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 on Wednesday.
The Celtics carry “under” trends of 3-1-1 against Eastern Conference squads, 9-2 versus the Southeast Division, 3-0-1 after a SU win and 11-4 after a spread-cover. Miami is riding “under” streaks of 6-1 overall, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 20-7 following a SU win, 12-4 after a double-digit victory and 11-5-1 versus winning opponents. Conversely, the over is 10-4 in Boston’s last 14 Wednesday outings and 11-5 in the Heat’s last 16 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
Houston (20-15 SU and ATS) at Phoenix (22-13, 20-15 ATS)
Two teams that traveled overnight following road games on Wednesday hook up at US Airways Center in the desert, where the Suns host the Rockets in a battle of Western Conference opponents struggling with consistency.
Houston was in Los Angeles last night and fell to the Lakers 88-79 as a seven-point road underdog, setting a low-water mark for points in a game this season. The Rockets have followed up a 9-3 SU and ATS run by going 3-4 in their last seven games (2-5 ATS). All three losses and all four non-covers came on the road, where Rick Adelman’s troops are just 10-11 SU and ATS this year. Houston, which ends a three-game road trip tonight, has averaged just 88.4 ppg in its last five on the highway.
Phoenix returns home after outlasting Sacramento 113-109 on Tuesday, cashing as a 2½-point road chalk. Steve Nash and the offense are rolling again, topping triple digits in seven straight games, scoring 113 or more in six of those contests and averaging 116.3 ppg over this stretch. The Suns jumped out to a 14-3 start to the season (11-6 ATS), but they’ve since lost 10 of their last 18 (9-9 ATS). They’ve also only split their last six home games SU and ATS – including an ugly 128-103 loss to Memphis in the most recent home game – after starting out 10-0 (7-3 ATS) at US Airways Center.
Phoenix went to Houston on Nov. 17 and topped the Rockets 111-105 as a 2½-point road underdog. The Suns are 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings overall and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in the desert, but the visitor has cashed in 14 of the last 20 and the ‘dog is on a 4-1 ATS roll. The winner has scored in triple digits in nine of the last 10 meetings, with both teams clearing the century mark in the last three in a row.
The SU winner is 14-1 ATS in Houston’s last 15 games (8-1 ATS on the road) and 11-0 ATS in Phoenix’s last 11 overall and 9-0 ATS in its last nine at home. Also, the victor has gotten the cash in seven of the last eight battles between these foes.
The Rockets have cashed in five of their last seven against Western Conference opponents, but in addition to failing to cover in five straight road games, they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six when playing on consecutive nights. The Suns have also struggled recently in back-to-backs (1-4 ATS last five), but they’re 17-8 ATS in their last 25 home outings dating to last season and 6-2 ATS both in their last eight against Southwest Division foes and their last eight against winning teams.
Houston is on “under” surges of 6-1 overall, 5-0 on the road, 5-2 on Wednesday and 4-1 when playing on back-to-back nights. On the flip side, Phoenix is on “over” upticks of 6-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 7-1 against the Western Conference, 26-9 on Wednesday and 10-4 when playing the second night of a back-to-back. Finally, six of the last eight Suns-Rockets matchups in Phoenix have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX and UNDER
