Scott Rickenbach
2* Top Play
Denver at LA Lakers
Play: Denver +6
The Lakers are wearing down and we’ll gladly grab the half-dozen points here as Los Angeles will be challenged just to win this game…let alone cover what will be a mountain of a point spread for them. Keep in mind, the Lakers got a much needed break after dispatching of the Jazz in just five games to open up the post-season. However, they followed that up with a grueling series against the Rockets that went the full seven games. Then, they had just one day off before having to meet the Nuggets and the Lakers have now been battling it out with Denver in a tightly contested series that is 2-2 so far. Tonight’s game will be the Lakers 6th in 11 days and 12th in 24 days. Conversely, the Nuggets are playing just their 5th game in 14 days and 8th game in 22 days! Denver has been afforded some nice breaks throughout the post-season as they dispatched of both the Hornets and Mavericks in just five games each!
We see the wear and tear showing up for the Lakers as they were outrebounded by 17 boards in Monday’s Nuggets win. Los Angeles is finding out how much more difficult the paint is to navigate when facing a team with a loaded frontcourt. Hilario, Martin, and Andersen were rebounding machines in the Game Four win and Nuggets coach Karl is pushing for continued aggressiveness in Game Five. Coach Karl has already correctly noted that the chance to steal another game in Los Angeles is greater in Game Five than it would be in Game Seven. In other words, there will be no let-up from the Nuggets tonight as they continue to play aggressive and play their style and push the tempo. Gasol is calling for the ball more for the Lakers but he’s quickly getting double teamed as soon as he gets the ball and he is a finesse player who is up against a very physical Nuggets frontcourt.
We understand the line the odds maker posted here because it relates to everyone expecting Los Angeles to bounce back at home. We just don’t see that happening. The Nuggets lost Game One in Los Angeles but the Lakers biggest lead in the game was four points. Then, in Game Two, the Nuggets won outright. In Game Three, the Lakers stole won in Denver but the biggest lead for either team the entire game was eight points and Los Angles used a 32-18 fourth quarter to get the win. On Monday, the Nuggets bounced back with a huge win and, as you can see from the above, is there really any justification for the Lakers to be expected to win this game by a sizable margin? The answer to that is truly a no. The Lakers biggest lead in Game Four was a single point. They’ve just not been able to put away the Nuggets in any of these games. They won Game One but never led by more than four points and, when Los Angles won Game Three, they did on the strength of a rare fourth quarter collapse for Denver. We are very comfortable backing the fresher, stronger, and more physical team here as the series goes on and as the point spread is simply too high for Los Angeles here. Play Denver plus the points as a Top Play selection.