THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Denver (10-4 SU, 13-1 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS)
With their best-of-7 Western Conference Finals series tied at 2-2, the Lakers and Nuggets return to Staples Center for the pivotal Game 5, with the winner moving to the brink of reaching the NBA Finals.
Denver led for all but 74 seconds Monday and turned Game 4 into a rout over the final few minutes, posting a 120-101 victory as a 4½-point home chalk. Carmelo Anthony (15 points, five assists) was dealing with illness and a bum leg and went just 3 of 16 from the field, but he hit 9 of 11 from the foul line, including several key fourth-quarter free throws. Along with Anthony, Chauncey Billups and J.R. Smith led seven players in double figures with 24 points apiece, while Kenyon Martin (13 points, 15 rebounds) and Nene (14 points, 13 rebounds) each notched a double-double.
Kobe Bryant scored 34 points to pace Los Angeles, and Pau Gasol added 21 points and 10 boards, but the Lakers got killed on the glass 58-40, including 20-9 on the offensive end. L.A. also hit just 24 of its 35 free throws, while Denver went to the charity stripe 49 times and made 37. The Game 4 result marked the first time in this series that the favorite won and covered and the first time that the favorite cashed.
Despite losing two of the last three in this series, Los Angeles is still 12-2 SU in its last 14 playoff games against Denver. The Lakers are 5-3 SU against the Nuggets this season, though the two teams have split the cash, and Los Angeles is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 clashes in this rivalry and 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Hollywood.
Los Angeles is 43-7 SU (24-26 ATS) at home this season, including 7-2 (4-5 ATS) in the postseason. Denver is 24-23 SU (27-20 ATS) on the highway, including 3-3 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS in the playoffs.
The Lakers are on ATS upswings of 6-0 after a SU loss and 4-1 after a non-cover, but the pointspread trends turn downward from there, including 2-8 as a playoff chalk of five to 10½ points (0-2 in this series), 1-4 after one day off, 1-4 against the Northwest Division and 2-8 after scoring 100 or more points.
The Nuggets are on a 24-7 SU tear dating to the regular season, and along with their 13-1 ATS playoff mark, they sport positive pointspread streaks of 23-7 overall, 8-2 against the Pacific Division, 22-5 against the West and a perfect 6-0 on the road (all in the playoffs, all as an underdog). That said, Denver is on ATS skids of 17-35-1 as a road pup of 5 to 10½ points and 3-7 as a playoff pup of the same price.
Denver and L.A. combined for 78 fourth-quarter points in Game 4 Monday to send the contest soaring over the posted total after the first three games in this series stayed low. The under is still 9-2 in the last 11 clashes between these squads, including 4-1 in the last five in Los Angeles.
For Los Angeles, the under has hit in seven of its last eight and is on addition surges of 11-3 overall, 8-1 in the conference finals and 6-0 as a playoff chalk. Likewise, for Denver, the under is on tears of 9-3 on the highway, 13-4 with the Nuggets an underdog and 20-6 when catching points in the playoffs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (26-19) at Texas (26-18)
Derek Holland (1-1, 4.82 ERA) makes his second career major-league start when the southpaw leads Texas against A.J. Burnett (2-2, 5.28) and the Yankees in the rubber match of a three-game series from Rangers Ballpark.
After waiting out a 2½-hour rain delay Tuesday night, the Rangers took the field and pounded New York 7-3 after getting clobbered in Monday’s series opener, 11-1. Despite last night’s result, the Yankees are still 22-8 in their last 30 games against the Rangers and 22-9 in their last 31 games in Texas.
New York is still on upticks of 11-3 overall, 10-3 as a favorite, 7-3 on the highway, 5-1 against lefty starters, 5-2 versus the A.L. West, 44-19 in the third game of a series and 55-21 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Texas, which had an eight-game home winning streak snapped with Monday’s loss, remains on positive streaks of 17-6 overall, 9-1 at home, 12-4 against right-handed starters, 6-1 as a home ‘dog and 5-2 on Wednesday. However, the Rangers have dropped 17 of their last 26 against A.L. East foes.
Holland got a no-decision in his first career start Friday at Houston, giving up three runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings, with the Rangers eventually pulling out a 6-5 victory. The left-hander’s two decisions have come in relief at home, where he’s 1-1 with a 10.13 ERA, surrendering six runs in 5 2/3 innings.
Burnett is coming off Friday’s 7-3 home loss to the Phillies as he surrendered five runs on eight hits (including three home runs) in six innings. Burnett hasn’t posted a victory since April 14 at Tampa Bay, and the Yankees have lost four of his last six contests, including a pair of road setbacks. For the season, Burnett is 2-1 with a 5.88 ERA in four starts on the highway.
Burnett has made six lifetime appearances against Texas (five starts), going 1-2 with a 4.72 ERA).
The over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last six against teams from the A.L. West, and the over is 4-1 in their last five Wednesday contests. On the flip side, Burnett’s last four starts have stayed under the total, and the Rangers are riding “under” streaks of 22-9 overall (8-2 last 10), 9-4 at home, 8-0 as an underdog, 9-2 against right-handed starters and 6-0 in the third game of a series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Boston (27-19) at Minnesota (23-24)
The Red Sox trot out Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-2, 10.32) as they wrap up a three-game series at the Metrodome against the Twins and Kevin Slowey (6-1, 4.23).
Minnesota used a five-run fifth inning to top Boston 5-2 on Tuesday and end a six-game losing skid to the Red Sox. The Twins are now 12-5 in their last 17 meetings with Boston in the Metrodome, and the host is on an 11-3 roll in this rivalry.
The BoSox had a modest two-game win streak snapped last night and they’ve now split their last 12 games. On the bright side, they’re on runs of 5-2 on Wednesday and 46-19 against the A.L. Central, but Terry Francona’s squad has still dropped 26 of its last 37 games on artificial turf. Minnesota is still on runs of 5-1 overall, 52-22 at home, 9-1 as a favorite and 36-16 against winning teams. However, the Twins have lost five of their last seven on Wednesday and 35 of their last 52 against A.L. East opponents.
After a five-week stint on the disabled list because of arm fatigue, Matsuzaka returned to a big-league mound Friday and lasted just five innings, giving up four runs on five hits and two walks in a 5-3 home loss to the Mets. The right-hander has surrendered 13 runs in 11 1/3 innings of work this year, with Boston losing all three of his starts. That includes a 6-5 setback at Oakland in Matsuzaka’s only road outing of 2009.
Despite Friday’s loss to the Mets, with Dice-K on the hill, Boston is still on runs of 28-9 overall, 14-3 on the highway, 10-1 versus the A.L. Central, 4-0 on artificial turf and 3-0 against Minnesota. In fact, Matsuzaka has been brilliant in three career starts versus the Twins, going 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA (four earned runs allowed in 22 1/3 innings).
Slowey has delivered three consecutive quality starts, going 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA, including Friday’s 11-3 home rout of the Brewers in which the right-hander yielded all three runs (two earned) in 7 1/3 innings. Slowey has permitted two earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven trips to the mound, and he’s 5-0 with a 4.91 ERA in six home efforts in 2009.
The Twins have come out on top in 13 of Slowey’s last 16 home starts, and they’re 5-2 in his last seven outings overall and 5-1 in his last six Wednesday contests. However, in his lone career start against the Red Sox back in September 2007, Slowey got tagged for four runs in 5 2/3 innings, losing 5-2 at Fenway Park.
Last night’s game stayed under the total, ending a 5-0 “over” run in this rivalry, but the over is still 4-2 in the last six clashes in Minnesota. Additionally, the Twins are on “over” streaks of 10-5 at home, 21-7 on Wednesday and 6-1 when Slowey pitches at home. Boston’s “over” trends include 17-4 on Wednesday and 5-1 against the Central Division. However, the under is 8-3-1 in Boston’s last 12 overall and 5-1-1 in Matsuzaka’s last seven starts against A.L. Central clubs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
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NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Denver (10-4 SU, 13-1 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS)
With their best-of-7 Western Conference Finals series tied at 2-2, the Lakers and Nuggets return to Staples Center for the pivotal Game 5, with the winner moving to the brink of reaching the NBA Finals.
Denver led for all but 74 seconds Monday and turned Game 4 into a rout over the final few minutes, posting a 120-101 victory as a 4½-point home chalk. Carmelo Anthony (15 points, five assists) was dealing with illness and a bum leg and went just 3 of 16 from the field, but he hit 9 of 11 from the foul line, including several key fourth-quarter free throws. Along with Anthony, Chauncey Billups and J.R. Smith led seven players in double figures with 24 points apiece, while Kenyon Martin (13 points, 15 rebounds) and Nene (14 points, 13 rebounds) each notched a double-double.
Kobe Bryant scored 34 points to pace Los Angeles, and Pau Gasol added 21 points and 10 boards, but the Lakers got killed on the glass 58-40, including 20-9 on the offensive end. L.A. also hit just 24 of its 35 free throws, while Denver went to the charity stripe 49 times and made 37. The Game 4 result marked the first time in this series that the favorite won and covered and the first time that the favorite cashed.
Despite losing two of the last three in this series, Los Angeles is still 12-2 SU in its last 14 playoff games against Denver. The Lakers are 5-3 SU against the Nuggets this season, though the two teams have split the cash, and Los Angeles is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 clashes in this rivalry and 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Hollywood.
Los Angeles is 43-7 SU (24-26 ATS) at home this season, including 7-2 (4-5 ATS) in the postseason. Denver is 24-23 SU (27-20 ATS) on the highway, including 3-3 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS in the playoffs.
The Lakers are on ATS upswings of 6-0 after a SU loss and 4-1 after a non-cover, but the pointspread trends turn downward from there, including 2-8 as a playoff chalk of five to 10½ points (0-2 in this series), 1-4 after one day off, 1-4 against the Northwest Division and 2-8 after scoring 100 or more points.
The Nuggets are on a 24-7 SU tear dating to the regular season, and along with their 13-1 ATS playoff mark, they sport positive pointspread streaks of 23-7 overall, 8-2 against the Pacific Division, 22-5 against the West and a perfect 6-0 on the road (all in the playoffs, all as an underdog). That said, Denver is on ATS skids of 17-35-1 as a road pup of 5 to 10½ points and 3-7 as a playoff pup of the same price.
Denver and L.A. combined for 78 fourth-quarter points in Game 4 Monday to send the contest soaring over the posted total after the first three games in this series stayed low. The under is still 9-2 in the last 11 clashes between these squads, including 4-1 in the last five in Los Angeles.
For Los Angeles, the under has hit in seven of its last eight and is on addition surges of 11-3 overall, 8-1 in the conference finals and 6-0 as a playoff chalk. Likewise, for Denver, the under is on tears of 9-3 on the highway, 13-4 with the Nuggets an underdog and 20-6 when catching points in the playoffs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (26-19) at Texas (26-18)
Derek Holland (1-1, 4.82 ERA) makes his second career major-league start when the southpaw leads Texas against A.J. Burnett (2-2, 5.28) and the Yankees in the rubber match of a three-game series from Rangers Ballpark.
After waiting out a 2½-hour rain delay Tuesday night, the Rangers took the field and pounded New York 7-3 after getting clobbered in Monday’s series opener, 11-1. Despite last night’s result, the Yankees are still 22-8 in their last 30 games against the Rangers and 22-9 in their last 31 games in Texas.
New York is still on upticks of 11-3 overall, 10-3 as a favorite, 7-3 on the highway, 5-1 against lefty starters, 5-2 versus the A.L. West, 44-19 in the third game of a series and 55-21 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Texas, which had an eight-game home winning streak snapped with Monday’s loss, remains on positive streaks of 17-6 overall, 9-1 at home, 12-4 against right-handed starters, 6-1 as a home ‘dog and 5-2 on Wednesday. However, the Rangers have dropped 17 of their last 26 against A.L. East foes.
Holland got a no-decision in his first career start Friday at Houston, giving up three runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings, with the Rangers eventually pulling out a 6-5 victory. The left-hander’s two decisions have come in relief at home, where he’s 1-1 with a 10.13 ERA, surrendering six runs in 5 2/3 innings.
Burnett is coming off Friday’s 7-3 home loss to the Phillies as he surrendered five runs on eight hits (including three home runs) in six innings. Burnett hasn’t posted a victory since April 14 at Tampa Bay, and the Yankees have lost four of his last six contests, including a pair of road setbacks. For the season, Burnett is 2-1 with a 5.88 ERA in four starts on the highway.
Burnett has made six lifetime appearances against Texas (five starts), going 1-2 with a 4.72 ERA).
The over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last six against teams from the A.L. West, and the over is 4-1 in their last five Wednesday contests. On the flip side, Burnett’s last four starts have stayed under the total, and the Rangers are riding “under” streaks of 22-9 overall (8-2 last 10), 9-4 at home, 8-0 as an underdog, 9-2 against right-handed starters and 6-0 in the third game of a series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Boston (27-19) at Minnesota (23-24)
The Red Sox trot out Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-2, 10.32) as they wrap up a three-game series at the Metrodome against the Twins and Kevin Slowey (6-1, 4.23).
Minnesota used a five-run fifth inning to top Boston 5-2 on Tuesday and end a six-game losing skid to the Red Sox. The Twins are now 12-5 in their last 17 meetings with Boston in the Metrodome, and the host is on an 11-3 roll in this rivalry.
The BoSox had a modest two-game win streak snapped last night and they’ve now split their last 12 games. On the bright side, they’re on runs of 5-2 on Wednesday and 46-19 against the A.L. Central, but Terry Francona’s squad has still dropped 26 of its last 37 games on artificial turf. Minnesota is still on runs of 5-1 overall, 52-22 at home, 9-1 as a favorite and 36-16 against winning teams. However, the Twins have lost five of their last seven on Wednesday and 35 of their last 52 against A.L. East opponents.
After a five-week stint on the disabled list because of arm fatigue, Matsuzaka returned to a big-league mound Friday and lasted just five innings, giving up four runs on five hits and two walks in a 5-3 home loss to the Mets. The right-hander has surrendered 13 runs in 11 1/3 innings of work this year, with Boston losing all three of his starts. That includes a 6-5 setback at Oakland in Matsuzaka’s only road outing of 2009.
Despite Friday’s loss to the Mets, with Dice-K on the hill, Boston is still on runs of 28-9 overall, 14-3 on the highway, 10-1 versus the A.L. Central, 4-0 on artificial turf and 3-0 against Minnesota. In fact, Matsuzaka has been brilliant in three career starts versus the Twins, going 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA (four earned runs allowed in 22 1/3 innings).
Slowey has delivered three consecutive quality starts, going 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA, including Friday’s 11-3 home rout of the Brewers in which the right-hander yielded all three runs (two earned) in 7 1/3 innings. Slowey has permitted two earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven trips to the mound, and he’s 5-0 with a 4.91 ERA in six home efforts in 2009.
The Twins have come out on top in 13 of Slowey’s last 16 home starts, and they’re 5-2 in his last seven outings overall and 5-1 in his last six Wednesday contests. However, in his lone career start against the Red Sox back in September 2007, Slowey got tagged for four runs in 5 2/3 innings, losing 5-2 at Fenway Park.
Last night’s game stayed under the total, ending a 5-0 “over” run in this rivalry, but the over is still 4-2 in the last six clashes in Minnesota. Additionally, the Twins are on “over” streaks of 10-5 at home, 21-7 on Wednesday and 6-1 when Slowey pitches at home. Boston’s “over” trends include 17-4 on Wednesday and 5-1 against the Central Division. However, the under is 8-3-1 in Boston’s last 12 overall and 5-1-1 in Matsuzaka’s last seven starts against A.L. Central clubs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
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