Nite Owl Sports
Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: 1 unit Denver Nuggets +230
Lakers' recent dominance (TY and LY) over Nuggs at Staples, which had been quite impressive, is now a thing of the past, after game one changed all that, and game two proved that game one was not a fluke. And in that game one, Denver dominated early, but showed, with sub par FT shooting and some critical late mistakes (especially that horrible in-bounds pass in final seconds that was stolen by LA's Trevor Ariza to "ice' the win for the lucky Lakers) that as good as they have been playing, maybe they were not quite "at the next level" that it will take to de-throne LA as NBA West champs. But then Denver broke through in game two for that elusive road playoff SU win over a quality team, showing that maybe they have, in fact, reached that "next level" needed to de-throne LA as NBA West champs.
To determine if Nuggs have a realistic chance to win this game SU, we looked at both teams' performance in 16 "representative games" (7 Denver games as medium priced road dogs of about +200 on ML at NBA elite teams, and nine Laker games as home faves of about –200 on ML vs the NBA elite, both TY (including games one and two of this series and a late season (April) game between these two at Staples, as well as regular season games TY vs Boston (with KG playing), Orlando and Cleve) and all three Laker HGs in LY's final round vs Boston. And while Lakers were a decent 6-3 SU in their nine games, with an average MOV (margin of victory) of 4 points, including that game two loss to these Nuggs, they were just about “break even” when figuring in the heavy “juice” of –200 to - 250 they were laying on ML in those games. And in their 7 roadies vs NBA elite TY, Nuggs were 3-4 SU with an average MOL (margin of loss) of 2 points, but getting about +200 odds on ML each time, they were a profitable two or more units in those games (-4 units on the 4 losses, and +6 units on the 3 wins). Combining and averaging those #s (and counting the 3 Denver-Laker games in LA just 3X, not 6X) gives us a SU 8-5 advantage for LA in this game, with a projected LA win by 3.5, but again, when figuring in the big plus odds of +230 that Nuggs are getting on ML in this game, that 8-5 “advantage” for LA becomes an advantage of +3.5 units for the Nuggs (+11.5 units for Denver’s 5 SU wins, and –8 units for LA’s SU wins).
Moreover, the Kobies (excuse us, the Lakers) showed us very little in games one and two on their usually strong home court (where they had been dominant so far in TY's playoffs), often looking “out of sync” on offense, like they also did for all of game 7 (also at Staples) of Houston series, and on defense allowing Denver many more uncontested (or minimally contested) shots than normal, especially in game one. But LA won game one due primarily to Kobe Bryant's "will to win," as he carried his team on his back for most of the game, keeping them close enough for a chance to win by hitting for 40 points on 13-28 shooting (with only 3 trey attempts) and then “sealing the deal" by hitting 12 of 13 FTs, many of them down the stretch in that decisive 4Q. But laying –250 odds on Lakers for Kobe to pull out another last second win for his team, over a team that beat them the last time they played at this same site? We don’t think that makes much sense.
And if Kobe is not dominant tonite, and Pau Gasol cannot get untracked, Lakers could be in for a long night. For example, the game one results don’t bode well for LA, as Gasol scored just 13 and was able to get open for just a handful of shots (about half of his points were tip ins or “put-backs of missed shots by other Lakers), “Fish” had 13 but on only 5-13 shooting, and no other laker was in double figures (Odom scored just 7 on 3-7, and Bynum pulled one of his “no shows” with just 6 points on 2-4 shooting, playing limited minutes due to early foul trouble). Contrast that to Nuggs, who had much better balance than LA in game one, in support of “Melo’s” 39 points on 14-20 shooting, incl 4-5 treys – K Mart for 15 points on 7-14 shooting and 8 boards, and Nene with 14 points on 6-9 shooting. Even Chauncey Billups shook off a slow start and finished with 18 points, incl that crucial trey to keep Nuggs in it until game’s final shot. But what did in the Nuggs in that game one, in addition to some sloppy ball handling in the final minute, was their poor FT shooting (just 66% on 35 attempts compared to Lakers 83% on 24 FTs) and being outboarded 37-46. But in game two, while they did not shoot as well as in game one, they did a better job on the things that win games – they got to the FT line more times than LA (37 vs 35) and this time hit 78% from the line, plus they played Lakers even on the boards (42-43), and they took better care of the ball in “crunch time.”And in game 4, while that game was in Denver, the Nuggs “smoked” the Lakers on the glass, 42-25.
So based on the above, and the fact that Nuggs know they can beat Lakers in LA (having already done it in game 2) and that their chances of getting that needed win here in LA are much better in this game 5 than in a game 7, we give the Nuggets enough of a chance to win this game SU to justify risking one unit on them to win 2.3 units at these generous odds of +230.
Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: 1 unit Denver Nuggets +230
Lakers' recent dominance (TY and LY) over Nuggs at Staples, which had been quite impressive, is now a thing of the past, after game one changed all that, and game two proved that game one was not a fluke. And in that game one, Denver dominated early, but showed, with sub par FT shooting and some critical late mistakes (especially that horrible in-bounds pass in final seconds that was stolen by LA's Trevor Ariza to "ice' the win for the lucky Lakers) that as good as they have been playing, maybe they were not quite "at the next level" that it will take to de-throne LA as NBA West champs. But then Denver broke through in game two for that elusive road playoff SU win over a quality team, showing that maybe they have, in fact, reached that "next level" needed to de-throne LA as NBA West champs.
To determine if Nuggs have a realistic chance to win this game SU, we looked at both teams' performance in 16 "representative games" (7 Denver games as medium priced road dogs of about +200 on ML at NBA elite teams, and nine Laker games as home faves of about –200 on ML vs the NBA elite, both TY (including games one and two of this series and a late season (April) game between these two at Staples, as well as regular season games TY vs Boston (with KG playing), Orlando and Cleve) and all three Laker HGs in LY's final round vs Boston. And while Lakers were a decent 6-3 SU in their nine games, with an average MOV (margin of victory) of 4 points, including that game two loss to these Nuggs, they were just about “break even” when figuring in the heavy “juice” of –200 to - 250 they were laying on ML in those games. And in their 7 roadies vs NBA elite TY, Nuggs were 3-4 SU with an average MOL (margin of loss) of 2 points, but getting about +200 odds on ML each time, they were a profitable two or more units in those games (-4 units on the 4 losses, and +6 units on the 3 wins). Combining and averaging those #s (and counting the 3 Denver-Laker games in LA just 3X, not 6X) gives us a SU 8-5 advantage for LA in this game, with a projected LA win by 3.5, but again, when figuring in the big plus odds of +230 that Nuggs are getting on ML in this game, that 8-5 “advantage” for LA becomes an advantage of +3.5 units for the Nuggs (+11.5 units for Denver’s 5 SU wins, and –8 units for LA’s SU wins).
Moreover, the Kobies (excuse us, the Lakers) showed us very little in games one and two on their usually strong home court (where they had been dominant so far in TY's playoffs), often looking “out of sync” on offense, like they also did for all of game 7 (also at Staples) of Houston series, and on defense allowing Denver many more uncontested (or minimally contested) shots than normal, especially in game one. But LA won game one due primarily to Kobe Bryant's "will to win," as he carried his team on his back for most of the game, keeping them close enough for a chance to win by hitting for 40 points on 13-28 shooting (with only 3 trey attempts) and then “sealing the deal" by hitting 12 of 13 FTs, many of them down the stretch in that decisive 4Q. But laying –250 odds on Lakers for Kobe to pull out another last second win for his team, over a team that beat them the last time they played at this same site? We don’t think that makes much sense.
And if Kobe is not dominant tonite, and Pau Gasol cannot get untracked, Lakers could be in for a long night. For example, the game one results don’t bode well for LA, as Gasol scored just 13 and was able to get open for just a handful of shots (about half of his points were tip ins or “put-backs of missed shots by other Lakers), “Fish” had 13 but on only 5-13 shooting, and no other laker was in double figures (Odom scored just 7 on 3-7, and Bynum pulled one of his “no shows” with just 6 points on 2-4 shooting, playing limited minutes due to early foul trouble). Contrast that to Nuggs, who had much better balance than LA in game one, in support of “Melo’s” 39 points on 14-20 shooting, incl 4-5 treys – K Mart for 15 points on 7-14 shooting and 8 boards, and Nene with 14 points on 6-9 shooting. Even Chauncey Billups shook off a slow start and finished with 18 points, incl that crucial trey to keep Nuggs in it until game’s final shot. But what did in the Nuggs in that game one, in addition to some sloppy ball handling in the final minute, was their poor FT shooting (just 66% on 35 attempts compared to Lakers 83% on 24 FTs) and being outboarded 37-46. But in game two, while they did not shoot as well as in game one, they did a better job on the things that win games – they got to the FT line more times than LA (37 vs 35) and this time hit 78% from the line, plus they played Lakers even on the boards (42-43), and they took better care of the ball in “crunch time.”And in game 4, while that game was in Denver, the Nuggs “smoked” the Lakers on the glass, 42-25.
So based on the above, and the fact that Nuggs know they can beat Lakers in LA (having already done it in game 2) and that their chances of getting that needed win here in LA are much better in this game 5 than in a game 7, we give the Nuggets enough of a chance to win this game SU to justify risking one unit on them to win 2.3 units at these generous odds of +230.
Dr Baseball Guaranteed Selections
Date: Wednesday, May 27, 2009
$35.00 Guaranteed: Last year we 120-65 for +$4140 playing $100 per game and our GRAND SLAM Selections are now 412-184 the past FOUR COMBINED! We were also 24-7 in the Playoffs last year. Today we are featuring another GRAND SLAM BASEBALL WINNER and you can get this GUARANTEED WINNER for just $35 and PAY ONLY AFTER YOU WIN!! 20-4 RUN!! 5/27/2009
GRAND SLAM BASEBALL WINNER
Cincinnati w/Arroyo -140 7:10 EST
Date: Wednesday, May 27, 2009
$35.00 Guaranteed: Last year we 120-65 for +$4140 playing $100 per game and our GRAND SLAM Selections are now 412-184 the past FOUR COMBINED! We were also 24-7 in the Playoffs last year. Today we are featuring another GRAND SLAM BASEBALL WINNER and you can get this GUARANTEED WINNER for just $35 and PAY ONLY AFTER YOU WIN!! 20-4 RUN!! 5/27/2009
GRAND SLAM BASEBALL WINNER
Cincinnati w/Arroyo -140 7:10 EST
