Ferringo for Wednesday. Went 3-2 yesterday.
5.5-Unit Play. Take #571 Ohio (-4) over Central Michigan (8 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 28)
Note: This is our Game of the Month.
I know that this may seem like an odd place to make a stand, but I think that this game is a mismatch and that the actual outcome will be closer to 11. If you break down the MAC this year you have the East and the West, and those two divisions might as well be two different leagues. Ohio hails from the East and is currently No. 3 in a gauntlet of a division. The two lowest ranked teams in that division are Kent State (No. 140), who went to the NCAA Tournament last year, and Bowling Green (No. 187) which played Ohio State and Minnesota to the wire on the road this year. Those are the two weakest teams. In the West, the two BEST teams are Western Michigan (No. 181) and Ball State (No. 236). So, again, the best of the West still isn't really better than the worst in the East. But that's just for starters. If we compare these two teams in terms of overall statistical power ranking we're looking at No. 117 vs. No. 272. In terms of offense, it's No. 131 vs. No. 266. In terms of defense it is No. 124 vs. No. 257. And in terms of strength of schedule it is No. 95 vs. No. 233. So, when you look at those numbers it appears that our team is TWICE as strong as the opponent and that they've proven themselves against significantly stronger competition. We also have an edge in shooting, free throws, defense, and turnovers, as well as an experience edge.
Further, if we look at teams ranked between No. 225 and No. 290 - teams in the same range as CMU - Ohio is 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 16.5 points per game. CMU, on the other hand, is 5-12 SU on the season but only one of their wins came against a team ranked higher than No. 230 - and that was a win over Wright State when Wright was missing four of its top eight players. CMU has recent home losses to Detroit (No. 263) by 12 and to WMU by 9. Ohio has a bit of a spotty road record (2-6 on the year) but other than a slip up at Delaware they don't have any bad road losses. All of their L's have come against teams ranked No. 144 or higher and they actually have a solid road win over Miami, OH. I think it's safe to say that Miami, OH is twice the team that Central Michigan is as well. But this just goes back to what I said before about how Ohio has performed much better against significantly better competition.
Also, we have Ohio coming off a tough loss to gritty Bowling Green. The Bobcats shot just 13-for-48 in that game for their worst output of the season. But that also came against the No. 37 defense in the country. The Chips are ranked No. 247 and the Bobcats should feel like they've just been let out of prison after grinding with Bowling Green for 40 minutes. CMU, on the other hand, is a terrible shooting team (41.2 percent, No. 266 in the country) and they are coming off just their second game this year in which they shot over 50 percent. After their first forray over 50 they came back down to earth quickly, hitting just 36 percent their next time out in a 14-point loss to pathetic Toledo. So we have Ohio, desperate and angry after losing two of three and not shooting well last time out, matched up against a CMU team that has won two of three against terrible competition and shooting around 10 points higher than their season average. I see things coming back to the center and I see Ohio having a strong offensive night.
On the court, we're backing the best player on the floor in Jerome Tillman. Tillman averages nearly 20 points per game this year and is probably one of the two best players in the conference. He's a senior on a team that starts three of them and he will get this team back on track tonight. CMU doesn't have anyone that can stop him. And if the Chips try to put Marcus Van on him he gets in foul trouble then CMU will lose one of its only post options. The Bobcats have an array of scoring options and should be able to work their offense against a weaker, less athletic CMU defense. And if they build a lead they are one of the top free throw shooting teams in the country at 72 percent, so we shouldn't have to worry about our side coughing one up in the last five minutes. Again, I see this as a double-digit game and I think we have the much stronger team. I think the MAC East is going to devour the West and by the end of their crossover games you won't be able to find one of these lines at less than eight points.
Finally, Ohio has absolutely dominated this series lately. They have won six straight and covered in six of seven. They have also won and covered in eight of 10 matchups and they own the all-time series 43-21. All but one of those wins were by double digits and the last eight Ohio victories have been by an average of 16.9 points per game.
3-Unit Play. Take #542 Bowling Green (-6.5) over Ball State (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 28)
This is another MAC East vs. West game and I think when Ball State goes on the road they are going to start feeling the effects of not having Anthony Newell. BSU has played a bit above itself since losing its star player and the tough defense of BG should completely frustrate and confuse them all night tonight. Without Newell the Cards won't have a place to go with the ball. They are also significantly outmanned underneath. And if Bowling Green controls the paint then this one should hit double-digits in terms of scoring differential.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #538 South Carolina (-6.5) over Vanderbilt (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 28)
Vanderbilt has looked as bad as any team in the country over the last week and now they are on the road against a high-flying South Carolina team. Confidence has to be a big issue for Vandy right now and if they couldn't throw the ball in the ocean on their home court I don't expect them to go on the road and find their shooting touch. USC has bodies to throw at Andrew Ogilvy, who has looked very frustrated, and South Carolina has a large edge in terms of guard play. They should speed Vandy up the same way that Florida and Tennessee were able to and more possessions will only magnify the offensive problems of the 'Dores.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #577 UTEP (+5.5) over Houston (8 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 28)
I liked this setup for the Miners even before Aubrey Coleman, Houston's second-leading scorer, was suspended. Houston is coming off a bizarre OT loss at Arizona over the weekend and might not come out as sharp as they otherwise would have for this in-state rivalry game. UTEP is a really talented team and they have played, and beaten, teams much better than the Cougars. UTEP has a load of experience and they play better as a unit, and I like them to win this game outright. They took two of three from UH last year and that was a much better Houston team, in my estimation. Those three games were decided by an average of 4.8 points so we're even below that threshold this time around, and the underdog has covered four straight in this series. Houston won the first meeting a couple weeks ago, but that gives the Miners more motivation. Also, the suspended Coleman had 24 huge points in that game (one-quarter of his team's total offense) and he won't be available tonight.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #597 Connecticut (-13.5) over DePaul (9 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 28)
DePaul is just awful. Not really much more to say. Connecticut will dominate the interior. And if the Blue Demons are forced to knock down outside shots all night this one is going to get real ugly real quick. UConn beat Seton Hall by 15, St. John's by 12, and Rutgers by 31, so they can take care of the Big East bottom feeders. They are finally getting some guard play and I think that makes them an even tougher matchup as they start to peak.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #599 Missouri (-4) over Kansas State (9 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 28)
The Tigers are the best team in the country that no one is talking about right now. They have played well through a brutal schedule and they have been devastating lately. They have won four straight by margins of 45, 31, 2, and 9. And in that two-point win at Oklahoma State (who is much better than K-State) the Tigers were up 22 in the second half. K-State beat Mizzou by 37 points in Manhattan last year. I think the Tigers - who were really shorthanded then - will remember and not call off the dogs at all this time around. K-State is just 2-12 ATS in Big 12 play lately.
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #563 South Florida (+22.5) over Louisville (7 p.m.) AND Take #579 LSU (+12.5) over Tennessee (8 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #553 Pittsburgh (-3.5) over Villanova (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 28)
Villanova maybe could win this game - but I highly doubt it. The Wildcats are one of the most overrated teams in the country simply because they have not played many tough foes this year. If you throw out a win over Rhode Island, which has an inflated ranking of No. 59, then Villanova has just one win over the Top 80, and that was against Temple. Nova lost to Marquette by 5, to Louisville by 1, to UConn by 6 and to Texas by 9. Those are their four games against top competition and they have lost all of them. And it can be argued that Pitt is better than all four of those teams. The Panthers are tough and 'Nova doesn't have anyone to matchup with Sam Young or DeJuan Blair. I would normally stay away from Pitt off such a big rivalry win (over WVU), but I decided to pull the trigger not based on any stats but just based on the fact that Pitt has guys that can guard 'Nova's best player (Scottie Reynolds) but the Wildcats don't have anyone that can matchup with Blair or Young.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #536 James Madison (-1) over Old Dominion (7 p.m.)
Old Dominion was beaten on their home court the last time these two met and I think it's more of the same this time around. JMU is still being underrated in their conference, but this team is legit. Matt Brady's system has taken root and this overrated ODU team is going down tonight. Madison has the better offense, the better defense, the home court, and the fact that ODU hasn't beaten a team inside the Top 240 since the second week of December all working in its favor. Madison wins, and wins big, tonight.
5.5-Unit Play. Take #571 Ohio (-4) over Central Michigan (8 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 28)
Note: This is our Game of the Month.
I know that this may seem like an odd place to make a stand, but I think that this game is a mismatch and that the actual outcome will be closer to 11. If you break down the MAC this year you have the East and the West, and those two divisions might as well be two different leagues. Ohio hails from the East and is currently No. 3 in a gauntlet of a division. The two lowest ranked teams in that division are Kent State (No. 140), who went to the NCAA Tournament last year, and Bowling Green (No. 187) which played Ohio State and Minnesota to the wire on the road this year. Those are the two weakest teams. In the West, the two BEST teams are Western Michigan (No. 181) and Ball State (No. 236). So, again, the best of the West still isn't really better than the worst in the East. But that's just for starters. If we compare these two teams in terms of overall statistical power ranking we're looking at No. 117 vs. No. 272. In terms of offense, it's No. 131 vs. No. 266. In terms of defense it is No. 124 vs. No. 257. And in terms of strength of schedule it is No. 95 vs. No. 233. So, when you look at those numbers it appears that our team is TWICE as strong as the opponent and that they've proven themselves against significantly stronger competition. We also have an edge in shooting, free throws, defense, and turnovers, as well as an experience edge.
Further, if we look at teams ranked between No. 225 and No. 290 - teams in the same range as CMU - Ohio is 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 16.5 points per game. CMU, on the other hand, is 5-12 SU on the season but only one of their wins came against a team ranked higher than No. 230 - and that was a win over Wright State when Wright was missing four of its top eight players. CMU has recent home losses to Detroit (No. 263) by 12 and to WMU by 9. Ohio has a bit of a spotty road record (2-6 on the year) but other than a slip up at Delaware they don't have any bad road losses. All of their L's have come against teams ranked No. 144 or higher and they actually have a solid road win over Miami, OH. I think it's safe to say that Miami, OH is twice the team that Central Michigan is as well. But this just goes back to what I said before about how Ohio has performed much better against significantly better competition.
Also, we have Ohio coming off a tough loss to gritty Bowling Green. The Bobcats shot just 13-for-48 in that game for their worst output of the season. But that also came against the No. 37 defense in the country. The Chips are ranked No. 247 and the Bobcats should feel like they've just been let out of prison after grinding with Bowling Green for 40 minutes. CMU, on the other hand, is a terrible shooting team (41.2 percent, No. 266 in the country) and they are coming off just their second game this year in which they shot over 50 percent. After their first forray over 50 they came back down to earth quickly, hitting just 36 percent their next time out in a 14-point loss to pathetic Toledo. So we have Ohio, desperate and angry after losing two of three and not shooting well last time out, matched up against a CMU team that has won two of three against terrible competition and shooting around 10 points higher than their season average. I see things coming back to the center and I see Ohio having a strong offensive night.
On the court, we're backing the best player on the floor in Jerome Tillman. Tillman averages nearly 20 points per game this year and is probably one of the two best players in the conference. He's a senior on a team that starts three of them and he will get this team back on track tonight. CMU doesn't have anyone that can stop him. And if the Chips try to put Marcus Van on him he gets in foul trouble then CMU will lose one of its only post options. The Bobcats have an array of scoring options and should be able to work their offense against a weaker, less athletic CMU defense. And if they build a lead they are one of the top free throw shooting teams in the country at 72 percent, so we shouldn't have to worry about our side coughing one up in the last five minutes. Again, I see this as a double-digit game and I think we have the much stronger team. I think the MAC East is going to devour the West and by the end of their crossover games you won't be able to find one of these lines at less than eight points.
Finally, Ohio has absolutely dominated this series lately. They have won six straight and covered in six of seven. They have also won and covered in eight of 10 matchups and they own the all-time series 43-21. All but one of those wins were by double digits and the last eight Ohio victories have been by an average of 16.9 points per game.
3-Unit Play. Take #542 Bowling Green (-6.5) over Ball State (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 28)
This is another MAC East vs. West game and I think when Ball State goes on the road they are going to start feeling the effects of not having Anthony Newell. BSU has played a bit above itself since losing its star player and the tough defense of BG should completely frustrate and confuse them all night tonight. Without Newell the Cards won't have a place to go with the ball. They are also significantly outmanned underneath. And if Bowling Green controls the paint then this one should hit double-digits in terms of scoring differential.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #538 South Carolina (-6.5) over Vanderbilt (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 28)
Vanderbilt has looked as bad as any team in the country over the last week and now they are on the road against a high-flying South Carolina team. Confidence has to be a big issue for Vandy right now and if they couldn't throw the ball in the ocean on their home court I don't expect them to go on the road and find their shooting touch. USC has bodies to throw at Andrew Ogilvy, who has looked very frustrated, and South Carolina has a large edge in terms of guard play. They should speed Vandy up the same way that Florida and Tennessee were able to and more possessions will only magnify the offensive problems of the 'Dores.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #577 UTEP (+5.5) over Houston (8 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 28)
I liked this setup for the Miners even before Aubrey Coleman, Houston's second-leading scorer, was suspended. Houston is coming off a bizarre OT loss at Arizona over the weekend and might not come out as sharp as they otherwise would have for this in-state rivalry game. UTEP is a really talented team and they have played, and beaten, teams much better than the Cougars. UTEP has a load of experience and they play better as a unit, and I like them to win this game outright. They took two of three from UH last year and that was a much better Houston team, in my estimation. Those three games were decided by an average of 4.8 points so we're even below that threshold this time around, and the underdog has covered four straight in this series. Houston won the first meeting a couple weeks ago, but that gives the Miners more motivation. Also, the suspended Coleman had 24 huge points in that game (one-quarter of his team's total offense) and he won't be available tonight.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #597 Connecticut (-13.5) over DePaul (9 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 28)
DePaul is just awful. Not really much more to say. Connecticut will dominate the interior. And if the Blue Demons are forced to knock down outside shots all night this one is going to get real ugly real quick. UConn beat Seton Hall by 15, St. John's by 12, and Rutgers by 31, so they can take care of the Big East bottom feeders. They are finally getting some guard play and I think that makes them an even tougher matchup as they start to peak.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #599 Missouri (-4) over Kansas State (9 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 28)
The Tigers are the best team in the country that no one is talking about right now. They have played well through a brutal schedule and they have been devastating lately. They have won four straight by margins of 45, 31, 2, and 9. And in that two-point win at Oklahoma State (who is much better than K-State) the Tigers were up 22 in the second half. K-State beat Mizzou by 37 points in Manhattan last year. I think the Tigers - who were really shorthanded then - will remember and not call off the dogs at all this time around. K-State is just 2-12 ATS in Big 12 play lately.
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #563 South Florida (+22.5) over Louisville (7 p.m.) AND Take #579 LSU (+12.5) over Tennessee (8 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #553 Pittsburgh (-3.5) over Villanova (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 28)
Villanova maybe could win this game - but I highly doubt it. The Wildcats are one of the most overrated teams in the country simply because they have not played many tough foes this year. If you throw out a win over Rhode Island, which has an inflated ranking of No. 59, then Villanova has just one win over the Top 80, and that was against Temple. Nova lost to Marquette by 5, to Louisville by 1, to UConn by 6 and to Texas by 9. Those are their four games against top competition and they have lost all of them. And it can be argued that Pitt is better than all four of those teams. The Panthers are tough and 'Nova doesn't have anyone to matchup with Sam Young or DeJuan Blair. I would normally stay away from Pitt off such a big rivalry win (over WVU), but I decided to pull the trigger not based on any stats but just based on the fact that Pitt has guys that can guard 'Nova's best player (Scottie Reynolds) but the Wildcats don't have anyone that can matchup with Blair or Young.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #536 James Madison (-1) over Old Dominion (7 p.m.)
Old Dominion was beaten on their home court the last time these two met and I think it's more of the same this time around. JMU is still being underrated in their conference, but this team is legit. Matt Brady's system has taken root and this overrated ODU team is going down tonight. Madison has the better offense, the better defense, the home court, and the fact that ODU hasn't beaten a team inside the Top 240 since the second week of December all working in its favor. Madison wins, and wins big, tonight.
MAC-ATTACK Guaranteed Pick: Dennis Macklin
Game: Pittsburgh at Villanova Jan 28 2009 7:00PM
Prediction: Pittsburgh
Reason: This has been a home court dominated series but just can't buy into Nova here. Pitt has just walked through the toughest conference in the country and would be unbeaten if not fora five minute shooting vapor lock at Louisville, a game they led by ten in the final ten minutes. Pits results against simialar are wins by 16 over Georgetown and 13 over West Virginia. The Wildcats are 3-3 in BE action, just 1-1 at home, and Big East home faves are just 4-13 as of today. Lets call this Pitt 74-59.
Game: Pittsburgh at Villanova Jan 28 2009 7:00PM
Prediction: Pittsburgh
Reason: This has been a home court dominated series but just can't buy into Nova here. Pitt has just walked through the toughest conference in the country and would be unbeaten if not fora five minute shooting vapor lock at Louisville, a game they led by ten in the final ten minutes. Pits results against simialar are wins by 16 over Georgetown and 13 over West Virginia. The Wildcats are 3-3 in BE action, just 1-1 at home, and Big East home faves are just 4-13 as of today. Lets call this Pitt 74-59.
dr bob
6 Best Bets for Wednesday, all college.
Rotation #536 James Madison (pk) 3-Stars at -1 or better, 2-Stars up to -2.
Rotation #544 West Virginia (-17) 2-Stars at -18 or less, 3-Stars at -16 or less.
Rotation #563 South Florida (+17) 2-Stars at +16 or more, 3-Stars at +18.
Rotation #582 Southern Illinois (-6) 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars at -7 1/2.
Rotation #602 Florida State (+11 1/2) 3-Stars at +9 or more, 2-Stars down to +8.
Rotation #610 Tenn-Chattanooga (+10 1/2) 2-Stars at +10 or more, 3-Stars at +11 or more.
Opinions on Sacramento +17 in the NBA (2-Stars at +18), Wake Forest +2 (2-Stars at +3) and Bradley -6 (2-Stars at -5 or less).
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6 Best Bets for Wednesday, all college.
Rotation #536 James Madison (pk) 3-Stars at -1 or better, 2-Stars up to -2.
Rotation #544 West Virginia (-17) 2-Stars at -18 or less, 3-Stars at -16 or less.
Rotation #563 South Florida (+17) 2-Stars at +16 or more, 3-Stars at +18.
Rotation #582 Southern Illinois (-6) 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars at -7 1/2.
Rotation #602 Florida State (+11 1/2) 3-Stars at +9 or more, 2-Stars down to +8.
Rotation #610 Tenn-Chattanooga (+10 1/2) 2-Stars at +10 or more, 3-Stars at +11 or more.
Opinions on Sacramento +17 in the NBA (2-Stars at +18), Wake Forest +2 (2-Stars at +3) and Bradley -6 (2-Stars at -5 or less).
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