THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(1) Duke (18-1, 10-7-1 ATS) at (6) Wake Forest (16-1, 8-5 ATS)
Back on top of the national rankings for the first time since 2006, Duke faces its toughest ACC foe to date when it travels to Veterans Memorial Coliseum for a clash with sixth-ranked Wake Forest.
The Blue Devils pummeled Maryland 85-44 as a 15-point home favorite Saturday, posting their largest margin of victory ever against the Terrapins. Duke, which is the third different No. 1 team in the last three weeks, has won 10 in a row, going 5-3-1 ATS in lined contests, with eight of the victories coming by double digits. During the run, coach Mike Krzyzewski’s club has posted an average margin of victory of 22.7 points per game, including 21 ppg in ACC play.
Wake Forest has been idle since last Wednesday, when it suffered its first loss of the season, a 78-71 setback to Virginia Tech as a 13-point favorite, snapping a 5-0 ATS run. The loss came just two days after the Demon Deacons took over the top spot in the rankings. Wake Forest has scored 78 and 71 points in its last two games after notching more than 80 points in 12 of its first 15 games.
Duke is 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS in conference play (2-0, 1-1 ATS) on the road), while the Demon Deacons are 3-1 SU and ATS in the ACC. The Blue Devils are putting up 72.4 ppg and yielding a paltry 51.6 ppg in conference, with Wake Forest averaging 81 ppg and giving up 74.5 ppg in league action.
The Demon Deacons ended a five-game SU and a six-game ATS losing skid to Duke with last year’s surprising 86-73 rout of the Blue Devils as an 8½-point underdog. The home team has won eight of the last nine clashes going back to 2003 and is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 battles.
The Blue Devils, who are coming off a three-game homestand, are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS on the highway. They’re also 4-1 ATS in their last five games after a victory of 20 points or more. Wake Forest is 9-1 in its gym (4-2 ATS in lined games), and the Deacons are on ATS streaks of 5-1 against winning teams, 5-2 on Wednesday and 7-0 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Duke is on “under” streaks of 20-6 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 10-1 in ACC play, 5-0 on Wednesday and 10-2 after a spread-cover. On the flip side, Wake Forest has gone over the total in five of its last seven at home and seven of its last 10 against winning teams, and the over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in this rivalry and 4-1 in the last five clashes in Winston Salem.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(3) Pitt (18-1, 8-5-1 ATS) at (21) Villanova (15-4, 8-7 ATS)
Pitt shoots for its third consecutive Big East victory and second in a row on the road when it visits the Wachovia Spectrum in Philadelphia for a battle with inconsistent Villanova.
The Panthers have bounced back from their only loss of the season – a 69-63 setback at Louisville as a two-point underdog – with a pair of impressive wins and covers. They knocked off Syracuse 78-60 as a nine-point home favorite 11 days ago, then went to West Virginia on Sunday and punked the Mountaineers 79-67 as a one-point pup. Pitt has scored at least 70 points in all but two of 19 games and it has held its last six opponents under 70 points, giving up 63.2 ppg during this stretch.
Villanova shook off a tough 89-83 loss at then-No. 3 UConn a week ago with Saturday’s 70-61 victory at South Florida, cashing as a six-point road chalk. The Wildcats have alternated SU wins and losses in their last seven games, but they’ve followed up an 0-3 ATS slide with three straight spread-covers.
Pitt is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS in Big East play, including 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS on the road, and the Panthers are averaging 76.1 ppg and allowing 64.4 ppg in league play. Villanova has split its first six Big East contests both SU and ATS, putting up 75 ppg but allowing 72 ppg.
The Panthers are on a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS roll in this rivalry, but the schools split last year’s two meetings with Villanova eking out a 64-63 victory as a three-point home favorite and Pitt taking a 69-57 decision as a seven-point home chalk. The underdog is 3-1 ATS in the last four battles.
Pitt is on ATS streaks of 6-2-1 on the road, 7-3 in Big East play and 4-1 versus winning teams, but it has failed to cash in five of its last six on Wednesday. Villanova is 4-1 ATS in its last five on Wednesday and 4-0 ATS in its last four at home against teams with a winning road record.
For Pitt, the over is on streaks of 13-4 in league action, 5-1 on Wednesday and 4-0 after a spread-cover. The Wildcats are on “over” stretches of 5-1 overall and 6-1 in Big East action, and the under is 18-6 in Villanova’s last 24 at home and 5-0 in its last five against winning teams. Also, the last five meetings in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITT
(5) North Carolina (17-2, 8-9 ATS) at Florida State (16-4, 9-4-1 ATS)
North Carolina goes after its fourth straight win overall and its 10th consecutive victory over Florida State as this ACC rivalry resumes with a matchup at the Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Fla.
Since dropping their first two conference games to Boston College and Wake Forest, the Tar Heels have regained their dominant form with three straight double-digit victories over Virginia (83-61), Miami, Fla. (82-65) and Clemson (94-70), going 2-1 ATS during the winning streak. In last Wednesday’s rout of Clemson, North Carolina shot 53 percent from the field and held the one-loss Tigers to 35.3 percent and easily cashed as a 13-point home chalk.
Florida State rolled past Virginia 73-62 as a one-point favorite, improving to 3-1 (2-1-1 ATS) in its last four games, three of which were played on the road. Like UNC, the Seminoles are 3-2 in the ACC (3-1-1 ATS), and in their two league games, they lost 66-58 to Duke but covered as a 9½-point underdog and edged Maryland 76-73 in overtime, falling short as a four-point favorite.
The Tar Heels have scored at least 90 points 10 times in their last 16 games, and they’ve eclipsed the 80-point mark in 17 of 19 contests this season, helping them rank second in the nation in scoring (93 ppg) and 10th in shooting (49.2 percent). In ACC play, Roy Williams’ squad is averaging 85.2 ppg and giving up 74.6 ppg. Meanwhile, the Seminoles are outscoring conference foes by just three ppg (71-68).
North Carolina posted three double-digit victories over Florida State last year, but went just 1-2 ATS. The Tar Heels won 84-73 in overtime as a 9½-point road chalk in their one visit to Tallahassee, then prevailed 90-77 at home and 82-70 in the ACC tournament, coming up just short as a 16-point and 13½-point favorite, respectively. UNC is 9-0 in the last nine meetings (5-4 ATS), going 3-0 SU and ATS at Florida State. Finally, the visitor is 6-2 ATS in the last eight head-to-head meetings.
North Carolina is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11, alternating spread-covers in the last eight games. The Heels are also in ATS funks of 2-6 in league play and 2-7 after a SU win, but they’re also on positive pointspread stretches of 6-0 on Wednesday, 39-18-1 after a spread-cover and 37-15 after a victory over more than 20 points. The Seminoles are on ATS runs of 4-1-1 overall, 7-1-2 in ACC action, 9-4-1 after a SU win and 11-5-2 against winning teams, but they’re 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 home games and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight on Wednesday.
The under is 4-1 in North Carolina’s last five on the road and 14-6 in FSU’s last 20 on Wednesday, but the Heels have topped the total in seven of their last nine on Wednesday. Finally, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA
NBA
Atlanta (26-18, 23-21 ATS) at New York (19-25, 25-19 ATS)
The Hawks look to rebound from Monday’s ugly loss at Miami when they head up the eastern seaboard for an Eastern Conference clash with the surging Knicks at Madison Square Garden.
One day after falling 104-99 to Phoenix as a four-point home chalk, Atlanta went to Miami and got drilled 95-79 as a three-point underdog, the first time this season the Hawks scored fewer than 83 points. Although it preceded these two losses with a three-game winning streak, Atlanta is just 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games, including 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS on the road.
New York is coming off Monday’s 104-98 victory over the Rockets as a 1½-point home underdog, improving to 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in its last five games, including 4-0 SU and ATS at home. During this five-game run, the Knicks are averaging 107.6 ppg (47 percent shooting) and giving up 101.8 ppg (44.1 percent).
The Knicks are 13-9 SU and ATS at home, with the SU winner cashing in 20 of those 22 contests. Meanwhile, the Hawks are 9-13 (13-9 ATS) as a visitor.
Atlanta is riding a five-game winning streak against the Knicks, but New York is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes. In this year’s lone previous meeting, the Hawks prevailed 98-95, but the Knicks easily got the money as a 10-point underdog. The pup is 4-2 ATS in the last six battles, with the visitor grabbing the cash in each of those six contests.
The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five on Wednesday, but otherwise they carry negative pointspread trends of 4-9 overall, 2-6 against the Eastern Conference, 1-4 against the Atlantic Division, 1-4 when playing on one day of rest and 1-4 after a double-digit defeat. In addition to cashing in five straight overall and four straight at home, New York is on ATS runs of 4-0 when playing on one day of rest and 5-1 against the Southeast Division.
In this rivalry, the over is on streaks of 11-5 overall and 5-2 when playing at the Garden. Also, the over is on runs of 5-2 for Atlanta against the Eastern Conference and 20-6 for New York on Wednesday. Conversely, though, the under is on stretches of 9-4-1 for the Hawks on the road, 11-4 for the Hawks when playing on one day of rest, 5-1 for the Hawks against the Atlantic Division, 20-8 for the Knicks overall, 4-1 for the Knicks at the Garden, 12-4 for the Knicks against the East and 10-2 for the Knicks when playing on one day of rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW YORK
Denver (30-15, 26-18-1 ATS) at New Orleans (27-14, 18-21-2 ATS)
Two of the top teams in the Western Conference get together for the third time this season and the first time in the Big Easy as the Hornets host the streaking Nuggets.
New Orleans improved to 4-1 in its last five games (3-2 ATS) with Monday’s 101-86 victory over the 76ers as a three-point home favorite, as All-Star point guard Chris Paul (27 points, 10 rebounds, 15 assists) recorded his league-leading fifth triple-double of the season and came within three steals of a quadruple-double. The Hornets have scored more than 100 points in four straight games (103.5 ppg) after accomplishing the feat just five times in hits pervious 22 contests.
Denver’s brief two-game road trip began with last night’s 100-85 victory at Memphis, easily cashing as a 6½-point road favorite. The Nuggets have won three in a row and are 10-3 in their last 13. Also, they’re on an 8-3 ATS roll, including four straight spread-covers. George Karl’s team has scored at least 105 points in 11 of its last 15 games, topping 110 points eight times during this stretch, including in the last three games in a row.
While the Hornets are 15-5 at home, they’re just 9-10-1 ATS. With last night’s win at Memphis, the Nuggets are 12-9 SU and ATS on the highway, including 4-5 SU and ATS in the last nine.
The teams split their first two meetings this season, both in Denver and both by nearly identical scores. The Hornets took the first clash 105-101 as a one-point favorite on Feb. 27 and the Nuggets got revenge with a 105-100 win as a four-point chalk on Jan. 3. That latter triumph by Denver ended New Orleans’ 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry. The visitor has cashed in 10 of the last 14 series battles.
The Nuggets are on ATS streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-0 against the Western Conference and 13-5 against the Southwest Division. New Orleans is on pointspread runs of 37-16-1 on Wednesday, 13-3 at home against squads with a winning road record and 10-3 as a favorite of less than six points, but the Hornets have failed to cash in four of their past five against the Northwest Division.
The over is on streaks of 5-1 for Denver on the road, 4-0 for Denver on Wednesday, 6-2 for Denver against the Southwest Division, 8-2 for Denver against winning teams, 6-0 for the Hornets versus the Western Conference, 5-2 for the Hornets versus the Northwest Division, 7-3 for the Hornets against winning teams and 6-1 for the Hornets on Wednesday. However, the under is on runs of 6-2 for the Nuggets overall, 8-2 for New Orleans at home and 18-7 for New Orleans when playing on one day of rest.
Finally, the over is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this rivalry and 3-1 in the last four clashes in New Orleans.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
Philadelphia (21-22 SU and ATS) at Houston (28-18, 21-25 ATS)
The Rockets return home from a disappointing three-game Eastern Conference road swing, and awaiting them will be the 76ers, who are searching for their fourth consecutive upset win over Houston.
Houston dropped two of three on its trip, opening with a 107-102 loss at Indiana as a one-point favorite and concluding with Monday’s 104-98 setback at New York as a 1½-point chalk. In between, the Rockets knocked off Detroit 108-105 as a three-point underdog. Prior to the journey, Houston had won three in a row and six of its last seven, but Rick Adelman’s squad has alternated ATS wins and losses in its last 13 games.
Philadelphia has followed up a season-best seven-game winning streak by dropping two of its last three, including Monday’s 101-86 loss at New Orleans as a three-point road underdog. Also, the 76ers have failed to cover in three straight games after going 8-0 ATS in their previous eight. The SU winner is 39-4 ATS in Philly’s games this season.
The Rockets have won three in a row and five of six at the Toyota Center, but they’re just 3-6 ATS in their last nine at home. Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s loss at New Orleans on Monday ended a three-game SU and a four-game ATS run on the highway.
The 76ers swept the season series from the Rockets last year, winning 100-88 as a 5½-point home underdog and 111-107 as a nine-point road pup. Then on Jan. 6, Philadelphia pulled off its third straight upset win over Houston, 104-96 as a three-point ‘dog, a victory that jumpstarted the Sixers’ recent eight-game winning streak. In this rivalry, the underdog is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings, including six outright upsets in the last eight, and the visitor has cashed in 12 of the last 16.
Philadelphia is on ATS runs of 8-3 overall, 4-1 on the road, 6-1 as an underdog, 4-0 on Wednesday, 10-3 against the Southwest Division and 5-1 after a double-digit defeat. Houston’s pointspread streaks including 4-1 after an outright loss and 6-0 after a non-cover, but the Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a favorite, 2-6 ATS in their last eight when playing on one day of rest and 1-7 ATS in their last eight against losing teams.
The last six meetings in this rivalry have gone over the total. Also, the over is 8-3 in the Sixers’ last 11 road games, 7-0 in their last seven after a SU defeat, 5-1 in their last six after a non-cover, 6-0 in their last six against winning teams and 11-5 in their last 16 on Wednesday. Houston has topped the total in six straight games after a defeat, but the under is 11-2 in its last 13 on Wednesday, 5-1 in its last six against the Eastern Conference and 4-1 in its last five versus the Atlantic Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER
