jeff benton tuesday
1-0 yesterday plus 20 dimes plus $200. overall, 95-118-4 minus 455 dimes.
Tuesday's plays ...
20 DIME seleation on the <b>PADRES</b> on the run-line (-1½ runs) over the Diamondbacks in San Diego. As I release this play, the Padres are a +105 underedog on the run line. Note that, as with all run-line plays, starting pitchers are listed, so Rodrigo Lopez (Arizona) and Clayton Richard (San Diego) must start or this play is VOID!
10 DIME selection on the <b>A’S</b> over the Indians in Cleveland. As I release this play, this is mostly a pick-em game, with Oakland as a very slight -115 favorite in some sports. Note that you must list Gio Gonzalez as Oakland’s starring pitcher. If Gonzalez does not start, this play is VOID!
<b>Padres (-1½ runs)</b>
This play shouldn’t surprise you, as I’ve riding the Padres a lot this season – but clearly not as often as I should have been, as San Diego is far and away the most profatable team in baseball at +29.5 units (meaning a $100 bettor would be up $2,950 if he just bet on all of the Padres’ games this season). By comparison, the DBacks rank 27th out of 30 MLB teams on the money list at -22.9 units (meaning a $100 bettor who wagered on every Arizona game would be down $2,290).
Since losing two of three to open the 2010 season in Phoenix, the Padres have ripped off seven of nine wins against the DBacks, with all seven victories being by multiple runs. This includes six conseceutive home wins by scores of 6-3, 5-0, 5-3, 12-1, 8-5 and 6-4. And if you go back to the final week of the 2009 season, 13 of the last 15 meetings between these rivals – including all nine of San Diego’s wins – have been by more than one run. One more note about this rivalry: The host is on a 13-3 roll, with the Padres going 7-0 at Petco Park.
As for this pitching matchup, there’s not much to say. Padres lefty Clayton Richard is 11-5 with 3.69 ERA, including 5-3 with a 3.24 ERA at home. Arizona’s Rodrigo Lopez is 5-11 with a 4.94 ERA, including 2-5 with a 5.09 ERA on the road. In fact, the DBacks are just 3-8 in Lopez’s 11 road starts this year, including an 8-5 loss in San Diego five weeks ago, with Lopez getting touched up for six runs – including four home runs – in six innings.
Also, while Lopez has given up 13 runs in his last three starts (pitching exactly five innings in each game), Richard is coming off consecutive domirating outings on the road against the Giants (two runs in six innings) and Cubs (one run in 6 2/3 innings). San Diego won both those game, and they’re 8-3 in his last 11 starts (3-0 at home), while the DBacks have lost six of Lopez’s last seven starts – all multi-run losses – dating back to his 8-5 defeat in San Diego on July 17.
Finally, the Padres have won 11 of 14 overall (including nine multi-run wins) and they’re 13-6 in Richard’s last 19 starts. Arizona has dropped seven of 10 (six multi-run losses) and the Snakes are just 19-40 on the highway this year.
<b>A’s</b>
Gio Gonzalez is cruising right now. The unheralded Oakland southpaw has allowed just three earned runs in his last three starts over 20 innings (1.35 ERA). And going back to June 21, he’s made 11 starts and allowed the following earned run totals: 0, 1, 0, 5, 1, 4, 1, 4, 0, 2 and 1 – that’s eight of 11 outstanding starts, and he’s gone six innings or more in 10 of those 11 contests.
The A’s are a perfect 4-0 in Gio Gonzalez’s four career starts against the Indians, outscoring the Tribe 27-6, including 14-0 in two games this year. In those two particular contests, Gonzalez has pitched 13 2/3 shutout innings, and he’s given up just 18 hits (one home run) in his four starts against Cleveland (23 1/3 innings). He’s also quite comfortable on the Progressive Field mound (two runs allowed in 12 2/3 innings).
Tonight, Gonzalez is matched up against Fausto Carmona, who is really struggling (1-4, 7.07 ERA in his last five starts, including 0-3 with a 7.88 ERA in three home games). True, Carmona has pitched well against the A’s in two games this year (four runs in 14 1/3 innings), but Cleveland is just 3-5 in his eight career starts against the A’s (including 1-3 at home).
The Indians are also in slumps of 17-36 against A.L. West teams, 17-38 in series openers, 5-15 after an off day, 9-20 at home against southpaw starters and 3-13 when Carmona faces the A.L. West, while Oakland is on a 13-5 roll versus losing teams. Also, if the A’s go off as a favorite, note that they’ve won 39 of 58 as a favorite, including four of five as a road chalk, and they’re 11-1 the last dozen times Gonzalez has strolled to the mound as a favorite.