OC Dooley
“1 UNIT” BASEBALL UPSET SHOCKER (Astros +205 at Rockies in an 8:40 eastern start
(Moehler versus Francis): It is always dangerous to lay a large price with a starting pitcher who did NOT appear at all last campaign as Jeff Francis missed all of 2009 with major shoulder surgery. Even though his initial pair of 2010 assignments were solid, Francis has shown vulnerability since allowing a most generous NINE runs in the past 11 innings of work. Odds are very strong that if Colorado’s former ace is shaky again, we are going to have a major UPSET by Houston who is 18-7 this year when crossing the plate at least 4 times in the same game. Since statistically the Astros have baseball’s worst offensive attack, it should come as no surprise that they are a woeful 4-29 so far when plating “three or less” runs in a contest. Even though I sided with Houston last night and lost it should be noted that the offense averaged more than FIVE runs per game in going 5-1 out of the gate this month. Going into last night slugger Carlos Lee had put up major statistics in the month of June (.304, 3 HR, 7 RBI) while fellow outfielder Hunter Pence had an excellent on-base percentage (.421). So far in the month of June after collecting three more hits last night, Astros veteran infielder Pedro Feliz is 10-for-27 at the dish. While Houston was averaging 5’ runs per game, Colorado’s offense going into Monday had plated “three or less” runs 4 times in a five-game span. Getting back to this evening’s Colorado hurler, Jeff Francis the past three campaigns is a horrible 5-14 when the posted total is between 8’-and-10 runs which is the case on this Tuesday. For those into UMPIRE angles consider that the ROAD team is a positive 9-4 so far when Bob Davidson is calling balls-and-strikes<!-- google_ad_section_end -->
“1 UNIT” BASEBALL UPSET SHOCKER (Astros +205 at Rockies in an 8:40 eastern start
(Moehler versus Francis): It is always dangerous to lay a large price with a starting pitcher who did NOT appear at all last campaign as Jeff Francis missed all of 2009 with major shoulder surgery. Even though his initial pair of 2010 assignments were solid, Francis has shown vulnerability since allowing a most generous NINE runs in the past 11 innings of work. Odds are very strong that if Colorado’s former ace is shaky again, we are going to have a major UPSET by Houston who is 18-7 this year when crossing the plate at least 4 times in the same game. Since statistically the Astros have baseball’s worst offensive attack, it should come as no surprise that they are a woeful 4-29 so far when plating “three or less” runs in a contest. Even though I sided with Houston last night and lost it should be noted that the offense averaged more than FIVE runs per game in going 5-1 out of the gate this month. Going into last night slugger Carlos Lee had put up major statistics in the month of June (.304, 3 HR, 7 RBI) while fellow outfielder Hunter Pence had an excellent on-base percentage (.421). So far in the month of June after collecting three more hits last night, Astros veteran infielder Pedro Feliz is 10-for-27 at the dish. While Houston was averaging 5’ runs per game, Colorado’s offense going into Monday had plated “three or less” runs 4 times in a five-game span. Getting back to this evening’s Colorado hurler, Jeff Francis the past three campaigns is a horrible 5-14 when the posted total is between 8’-and-10 runs which is the case on this Tuesday. For those into UMPIRE angles consider that the ROAD team is a positive 9-4 so far when Bob Davidson is calling balls-and-strikes<!-- google_ad_section_end -->
Big Al McMordie
100% NBA GAME OF THE MONTH; 2-0 IN FINALS
Our Selection: Lakers Opponent: Celtics Line: +3
Analysis: At 9 pm, our NBA Game of the Month is on the Los Angeles Lakers plus the points over Boston, as L.A. falls into 101-49, 30-11, and 40-16 ATS systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 30-11 angle. Here, what we want to do is play on any .534 (or better) team in the Playoffs, if it's on the road in a competitively-priced game (i.e., the pointspread is 5 points or less), and is off a home loss of 8+ points. And, in the NBA Finals, this system is a perfect 4-0 ATS! With Los Angeles in off a 103-94 loss at home to the Celtics, we'll play on Pau Gasol & Co. to rebound tonight, and steal a <NOBR>win</NOBR> in Beantown. Take the points.
Our Selection: Mets Opponent: Padres Line: -142
Analysis: At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the San Diego Padres. With so many top aces in the National League this season like Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, and Josh Johnson, one who has gotten a bit lost in the shuffle is the Mets' Mike Pelfrey. All the big righthander has done this season is go 8-1 with a 2.39 ERA in his first 11 starts. This is only Pelfrey's fifth season in the <NOBR>Majors</NOBR> but it is by far his best and he is probably headed to his first All Star game come mid-July. This is another great test for Pelfrey facing a very good team like San Diego and in fact Pelfrey just beat them in his last start on the road on June 1. If Pelfrey can do it at Petco Park, then he should be able to repeat the feat at Citi Field, where the Mets have the best home record in baseball at 22-9. The Padres will start lefthander Clayton Richard and Richard has also been pretty effective this season, though not nearly as impressive as Pelfrey. He took a no-decision in his last start against this Mets team on June 2, but he threw a season-high 109 pitches in that start. This will be Richard's first start ever at Citi Field. Take the Mets.<!-- google_ad_section_end -->
100% NBA GAME OF THE MONTH; 2-0 IN FINALS
Our Selection: Lakers Opponent: Celtics Line: +3
Analysis: At 9 pm, our NBA Game of the Month is on the Los Angeles Lakers plus the points over Boston, as L.A. falls into 101-49, 30-11, and 40-16 ATS systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 30-11 angle. Here, what we want to do is play on any .534 (or better) team in the Playoffs, if it's on the road in a competitively-priced game (i.e., the pointspread is 5 points or less), and is off a home loss of 8+ points. And, in the NBA Finals, this system is a perfect 4-0 ATS! With Los Angeles in off a 103-94 loss at home to the Celtics, we'll play on Pau Gasol & Co. to rebound tonight, and steal a <NOBR>win</NOBR> in Beantown. Take the points.
Our Selection: Mets Opponent: Padres Line: -142
Analysis: At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the San Diego Padres. With so many top aces in the National League this season like Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, and Josh Johnson, one who has gotten a bit lost in the shuffle is the Mets' Mike Pelfrey. All the big righthander has done this season is go 8-1 with a 2.39 ERA in his first 11 starts. This is only Pelfrey's fifth season in the <NOBR>Majors</NOBR> but it is by far his best and he is probably headed to his first All Star game come mid-July. This is another great test for Pelfrey facing a very good team like San Diego and in fact Pelfrey just beat them in his last start on the road on June 1. If Pelfrey can do it at Petco Park, then he should be able to repeat the feat at Citi Field, where the Mets have the best home record in baseball at 22-9. The Padres will start lefthander Clayton Richard and Richard has also been pretty effective this season, though not nearly as impressive as Pelfrey. He took a no-decision in his last start against this Mets team on June 2, but he threw a season-high 109 pitches in that start. This will be Richard's first start ever at Citi Field. Take the Mets.<!-- google_ad_section_end -->
Indian Cowboy
4-Unit Play. Take #926. Take Under 9.0 Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Whitesox (Tuesday @ 8:10pm est)
Galarraga went from not being on the starting rotation to possibly being a national martyr in a span of a few days. He is on the mound once again for the Tigers as he has yet to yield a run in over ten innings of play. He has given up just two hits in that span as well. I look for him to have a strong outing on the road today as he looked very sharp against the Indians and I suspect he has a decent outing today. I'm not sure if the Tigers win this game, but I do believe that he will have a decent outing. Do note that Gavin Floyd comes off his worst start of the year as he gave up six runs in less than three innings at home against Texas. He had similar rough outings in the beginning of the year, and came up big in back to back starts giving up just four runs in 13 innings. I suspect he will have a strong bounce-back at home as well and consequently with two pitchers having motivations to put up a strong outing today, I suspect that this game will likely go under the posted total. The Under is 7-3 when Galarraga starts with a total in this range and the Under is 6-1-1 for Floyd when the total is set at this range.
4-Unit Play. Take #652. Take Chicago Sky -5.5 over New York Liberty (Tuesday @ 8:00pm est)
The Sky are one of the hottest teams in the league. So, it is no surprise that we roll with them today. This team started the year so poorly and then they made shockwaves by destroying the Storm at home. The Storm consequently destroyed the Silver Stars after that game, but still, it is the Seattle game that gave this team the confidence it needed. Chicago started the year 0-4 and have won the next four games including defeating Seattle as noted, hammering Minnesota on the road 15, defeating the Atlanta Dream on the road outright by ten points giving Atlanta their first back to back losses, and beating Tulsa recently at home by 25 points. I look for Chicago to keep their hot streak going and their strong play at home today. This team is still ticked off at their poor 0-4 start and now will look to get above .500 on the year as the core of Fowles, Christon and Canty are coming together. Don't get me wrong, New York is a decent team but they just run into a Chicago team playing exceptionally well. I do plan on taking New York when they get home after this road trip, but for now, I'll ride Chicago to get it done once again. The Liberty are 1-4 ATS in their last five ballgames against the Eastern Conference and the Sky are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
4-Unit Play. Take #706. Take Under 192.5 Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers (Tuesday @ 9:00pm est).
Why not? We'll just keep riding the under. We have taken 3 of 4 unders of late and consequently 3 of 4 winning nights. I told myself that when this series goes back to Boston, I will take the Under. The Refs consistently let Boston go after their opponent at home as the games are far more physical. This dates back to the Hawks series a few years ago, the Magic earlier this year and the Lakers last a few years back as well. I look for Boston to dictate the pace of this game and certainly LA to make a stand at several points. But, I look for this game to have a strong defensive tone similar to game one - and that was in LA. Very few playoff games in Boston have been going over and I don't suspect this one will either. The Under is 4-1 in the Celtics last five home games and the Under is 13-6 when the Lakers are a road underdog.
4-Unit Play. Take #926. Take Under 9.0 Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Whitesox (Tuesday @ 8:10pm est)
Galarraga went from not being on the starting rotation to possibly being a national martyr in a span of a few days. He is on the mound once again for the Tigers as he has yet to yield a run in over ten innings of play. He has given up just two hits in that span as well. I look for him to have a strong outing on the road today as he looked very sharp against the Indians and I suspect he has a decent outing today. I'm not sure if the Tigers win this game, but I do believe that he will have a decent outing. Do note that Gavin Floyd comes off his worst start of the year as he gave up six runs in less than three innings at home against Texas. He had similar rough outings in the beginning of the year, and came up big in back to back starts giving up just four runs in 13 innings. I suspect he will have a strong bounce-back at home as well and consequently with two pitchers having motivations to put up a strong outing today, I suspect that this game will likely go under the posted total. The Under is 7-3 when Galarraga starts with a total in this range and the Under is 6-1-1 for Floyd when the total is set at this range.
4-Unit Play. Take #652. Take Chicago Sky -5.5 over New York Liberty (Tuesday @ 8:00pm est)
The Sky are one of the hottest teams in the league. So, it is no surprise that we roll with them today. This team started the year so poorly and then they made shockwaves by destroying the Storm at home. The Storm consequently destroyed the Silver Stars after that game, but still, it is the Seattle game that gave this team the confidence it needed. Chicago started the year 0-4 and have won the next four games including defeating Seattle as noted, hammering Minnesota on the road 15, defeating the Atlanta Dream on the road outright by ten points giving Atlanta their first back to back losses, and beating Tulsa recently at home by 25 points. I look for Chicago to keep their hot streak going and their strong play at home today. This team is still ticked off at their poor 0-4 start and now will look to get above .500 on the year as the core of Fowles, Christon and Canty are coming together. Don't get me wrong, New York is a decent team but they just run into a Chicago team playing exceptionally well. I do plan on taking New York when they get home after this road trip, but for now, I'll ride Chicago to get it done once again. The Liberty are 1-4 ATS in their last five ballgames against the Eastern Conference and the Sky are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
4-Unit Play. Take #706. Take Under 192.5 Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers (Tuesday @ 9:00pm est).
Why not? We'll just keep riding the under. We have taken 3 of 4 unders of late and consequently 3 of 4 winning nights. I told myself that when this series goes back to Boston, I will take the Under. The Refs consistently let Boston go after their opponent at home as the games are far more physical. This dates back to the Hawks series a few years ago, the Magic earlier this year and the Lakers last a few years back as well. I look for Boston to dictate the pace of this game and certainly LA to make a stand at several points. But, I look for this game to have a strong defensive tone similar to game one - and that was in LA. Very few playoff games in Boston have been going over and I don't suspect this one will either. The Under is 4-1 in the Celtics last five home games and the Under is 13-6 when the Lakers are a road underdog.
GATOR
(mlb 30-31)
3* YANKEES -1.5
GUARANTEED
(MLB 32-30)
4* PIRATES +1.5
INSIDERS EDGE
(MLB 33-25)
RED SOX
INSIDE STEAM
(MLB 29-31)
REDS
LV INSIDERS
(MLB 36-26)
300* MARLINS
LV LOCKLINE
(MLB 31-29)
25* INDIANS +1.5
LV SPORTS
(MLB 58-59)
10* TIGERS
10* ROYALS
NY SPORTS
(MLB 32-31)
7* YANKEES OVER 8.5
PANAMA CITY SYSTEMATIC
(MLB 32-39)
4* CUBS UNDER
3* ROCKIES -1.5
PLATINUM
(MLB 36-26)
GIANTS
MARINERS
POWER PLAYS
(MLB 57-58)
10* RED SOX
10* METS
PRIMETIME
(MLB 30-30)
BREWERS
PROFITABLE SPORTS
(MLB 35-27)
3* ANGELS
3* RAYS -1.5
RAIDER
(MLB 33-26)
10* METS
REED HARRIS
(MLB 28-31)
3* BREWERS
2* PADRES UNDER
RENO TOTALS
(MLB 35-26)
5* PHILLIES UNDER
SILVER STAR
(MLB 29-30)
WHITE SOX
BLUE JAYS +1.5
SYCAMORE SPORTS
(MLB 29-33)
3* ROCKIES UNDER 9.5
SPORTS AUTHORITY
(MLB 39-24)
3* PHILLIES
SPORTS NETWORK
(MLB 51-78)
INDIANS
BLUE JAYS
PIRATES
SUPER LOCK LINE
(MLB 35-25)
NATIONALS OVER 8.5
SUPER SYSTEMS
(MLB 41-24)
CARDS
THE SPORTS GURU
(MLB 31-31)
30* TWINS
THE SPORTS COMMISSIONER
(MLB 34-27)
5* METS
4* RAYS
3* TIGERS
TIPPS
(MLB 107-61)
10* YANKEES
10* RAYS
10* NATIONALS
10* ROCKIES
TJ FILLINGHAM
(MLB 34-26)
10* PIRATES +1.5
TOP DAWG
(MLB 28-37)
ASTROS
TRU-LINE
(MLB 34-29)
RED SOX
VEGAS CONNECTION
(MLB 33-27)
ROYALS
VEGAS PIPELINE
(MLB 33-24)
REDS UNDER
WIZARD
(MLB 27-33)
TEXAS
EZ WINNERS
(MLB 98-122 ~ 5* 1-4)
3* PIRATES
3* ORIOLES
3* REDS
2* PADRES
2* ROYALS
2* ASTROS
(mlb 30-31)
3* YANKEES -1.5
GUARANTEED
(MLB 32-30)
4* PIRATES +1.5
INSIDERS EDGE
(MLB 33-25)
RED SOX
INSIDE STEAM
(MLB 29-31)
REDS
LV INSIDERS
(MLB 36-26)
300* MARLINS
LV LOCKLINE
(MLB 31-29)
25* INDIANS +1.5
LV SPORTS
(MLB 58-59)
10* TIGERS
10* ROYALS
NY SPORTS
(MLB 32-31)
7* YANKEES OVER 8.5
PANAMA CITY SYSTEMATIC
(MLB 32-39)
4* CUBS UNDER
3* ROCKIES -1.5
PLATINUM
(MLB 36-26)
GIANTS
MARINERS
POWER PLAYS
(MLB 57-58)
10* RED SOX
10* METS
PRIMETIME
(MLB 30-30)
BREWERS
PROFITABLE SPORTS
(MLB 35-27)
3* ANGELS
3* RAYS -1.5
RAIDER
(MLB 33-26)
10* METS
REED HARRIS
(MLB 28-31)
3* BREWERS
2* PADRES UNDER
RENO TOTALS
(MLB 35-26)
5* PHILLIES UNDER
SILVER STAR
(MLB 29-30)
WHITE SOX
BLUE JAYS +1.5
SYCAMORE SPORTS
(MLB 29-33)
3* ROCKIES UNDER 9.5
SPORTS AUTHORITY
(MLB 39-24)
3* PHILLIES
SPORTS NETWORK
(MLB 51-78)
INDIANS
BLUE JAYS
PIRATES
SUPER LOCK LINE
(MLB 35-25)
NATIONALS OVER 8.5
SUPER SYSTEMS
(MLB 41-24)
CARDS
THE SPORTS GURU
(MLB 31-31)
30* TWINS
THE SPORTS COMMISSIONER
(MLB 34-27)
5* METS
4* RAYS
3* TIGERS
TIPPS
(MLB 107-61)
10* YANKEES
10* RAYS
10* NATIONALS
10* ROCKIES
TJ FILLINGHAM
(MLB 34-26)
10* PIRATES +1.5
TOP DAWG
(MLB 28-37)
ASTROS
TRU-LINE
(MLB 34-29)
RED SOX
VEGAS CONNECTION
(MLB 33-27)
ROYALS
VEGAS PIPELINE
(MLB 33-24)
REDS UNDER
WIZARD
(MLB 27-33)
TEXAS
EZ WINNERS
(MLB 98-122 ~ 5* 1-4)
3* PIRATES
3* ORIOLES
3* REDS
2* PADRES
2* ROYALS
2* ASTROS
LARRY NESS
(mlb 75-71)
10* CLUB-80 - TWINS
8* PITCHING MISMATCH - BREWERS
8* WEEKLY WIPEOUT - METS
BEN BURNS
(MLB 89-62)
10* WHITE SOX
8* OVER ROCKIES
8* UNDER CARDS
8* UNDER BRAVES
BENJAMIN LEE ECKSTEIN
(MLB 36-27)
METS
BREWERS
THE BASEBALL PROPHET
(MLB 39-19)
PLAY OF THE DAY - TWINS
LT PROFITS
(MLB 82-60)
5* BRAVES UNDER 9.5
4* TWINS UNDER 8
2* DODGERS UNDER 7
STEVE MERRIL
(MLB 73-76)
4* TWINS
3* ROCKIES -1.5
MIKE ROSE
(MLB 76-104 ~ 5* 1-11)
3* RED SOX OVER
3* METS
3* MARINERS
3* CUBS UNDER 7.5
JON STARZ SPORTS EXCHANGE
(MLB 24-32)
PASS
WUNDERD0G
5* INDIANS +1.5
(mlb 75-71)
10* CLUB-80 - TWINS
8* PITCHING MISMATCH - BREWERS
8* WEEKLY WIPEOUT - METS
BEN BURNS
(MLB 89-62)
10* WHITE SOX
8* OVER ROCKIES
8* UNDER CARDS
8* UNDER BRAVES
BENJAMIN LEE ECKSTEIN
(MLB 36-27)
METS
BREWERS
THE BASEBALL PROPHET
(MLB 39-19)
PLAY OF THE DAY - TWINS
LT PROFITS
(MLB 82-60)
5* BRAVES UNDER 9.5
4* TWINS UNDER 8
2* DODGERS UNDER 7
STEVE MERRIL
(MLB 73-76)
4* TWINS
3* ROCKIES -1.5
MIKE ROSE
(MLB 76-104 ~ 5* 1-11)
3* RED SOX OVER
3* METS
3* MARINERS
3* CUBS UNDER 7.5
JON STARZ SPORTS EXCHANGE
(MLB 24-32)
PASS
WUNDERD0G
5* INDIANS +1.5
THE DUKE SPORTSLA Angels (-143) for 2 Units
The Angels enjoy playing in the Oakland Coliseum where they're 10-1 in their last 11. Tonight, we'll look for the Angels' winning run to continue there and notch their 7th straight overall win. Jered Weaver is in good form coming off 3 strong outings; moreover, he controls a 1.17 ERA in his last 4 outings vs Oakland. We'll look for Jered to get the needed run support;after all, the A's Vin Mazzaro has struggled for most of the season, recalled twice from Triple A, and was lit up like a torch in 2 starts vs LA (7.88 ERA). Good value with the Angels who are 13-3 vs a starter with a WHIP in excess of 1.30.
The Angels enjoy playing in the Oakland Coliseum where they're 10-1 in their last 11. Tonight, we'll look for the Angels' winning run to continue there and notch their 7th straight overall win. Jered Weaver is in good form coming off 3 strong outings; moreover, he controls a 1.17 ERA in his last 4 outings vs Oakland. We'll look for Jered to get the needed run support;after all, the A's Vin Mazzaro has struggled for most of the season, recalled twice from Triple A, and was lit up like a torch in 2 starts vs LA (7.88 ERA). Good value with the Angels who are 13-3 vs a starter with a WHIP in excess of 1.30.
jeff benton tuesday
0-1 yesterday. a 15 dime loser on the rangers...back to back losing days...more and more in debt for jeff benton and his followers.. overall, 52-60-3 MINUS 165 dimes.
Tuesday's Winners ... 25 Dime: BOSTON CELTICS
10 Dime: NEW YORK METS ... NOTE: List Mike Pelfrey as New York's starting pitcher. If Pelfrey does not start, this play is VOID!
Celtics
The Laker supporter tonight will undoubtedly argue that if not for Ray Allen’s incredible shooting display in Game – he drained his first seven three-pointers and finished with a game-high 32 points – the Celtics would have returned home down 0-2. I’ll counter that argument with this: Only two players showed up for the Celtics in Game 2 – Allen and point guard Rajon Rondo (19 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) – and the team had 11 fewer points from the free-throw line (and 15 fewer free-throw attempts), and yet Boston won going away 103-94.
Paul Pierce? Contributed just 10 points on 2-for-11 shooting. Kevin Garnett? Six points, four and five fouls in 23 minutes. And yet the Celtics rolled to a nine-point win.
The point is this: If the Celtics can win on the Lakers’ home court with two of their top four players contributing a combined 16 points and eight rebounds, what’s going to happen now that Boston is back home? Granted, it’s highly unlikely that Allen will come close to duplicating his Game 2 performance, but it’s also highly unlikely that Pierce and Garnett will play as poorly as they played.
Also, it’s highly unlikely that L.A. big man Andrew Bynum, who had one of his best games in months with 21 points, six rebounds and seven blocked shots on Sunday, will repeat his effort tonight (especially since he continues to deal with a knee injury that’s going to require surgery when this series ends).
Meanwhile, two interesting trends have begun to develop regarding the Lakers. First off, prior to Sunday, the Lakers had lost just four games in these playoffs, and it was a pair of two-game losing streaks in Games 3 and 4 on the road (at Oklahoma City in the opening round and at Phoenix in the conference finals). Secondly, not only did L.A. lose Game 3 on the road to both the Thunder and Suns, but they barely escaped with a 111-110 win in Utah in Game 3.
In fact, going back to the 2008 playoffs, the Lakers are 3-6 the last nine times they’ve played Game 3 on the road. That’s not a quirk, guys. That tells me this team has trouble adjusting when playing for the first time in enemy territory (when the crowd is more revved up than at any point in a series).
Boston is now on a 10-3-1 ATS roll against the Lakers, including three easy home wins in the NBA Finals back in 2008 (Games 1, 2 and 6). In fact, the Celtics have cashed in seven of eight NBA Finals contests against Los Angeles (only exception coming in Game 1 of this series). Boston is also on an 8-3 SU and ATS roll overall, including 6-2 SU and ATS at home (all as a favorite).
Finally, since an eight-game playoff winning streak (7-1 ATS), the Lakers have now split their last six games (2-4 ATS). And again, so far in this postseason, when Los Angeles loses once, it has not bounced back well. Expect that trend to continue tonight, especially in what’s going to be an extremely hostile environment.
Mets
I’m all about Mike Pelfrey in this one. I backed him in his most recent start a week ago today in San Diego, and he dominated the Padres in a 4-2 win, improving to 8-1 with a 2.39 ERA on the season. And if you take away one bad inning at Philadelphia – a six-run fourth inning – Pelfrey has given up just 13 runs in 70 2/3 innings, good for a paltry 1.47 ERA!
Pelfrey has been incredible at home, too, going 5-0 with a 2.05 ERA in seven starts, with New York winning six of them. Then again, all the Mets do is win at home. They’ve got the biggest home-road split in baseball (22-9 at Citi Field; 8-18 on the highway). And since starting the year 2-3 at home, they’ve won 20 of their last 26 in Queens. That includes a three-game sweep of the Marlins over the weekend, culminating with Sunday’s come-from-behind 7-6 win. That means the Mets carry an eight-game home winning streak into tonight!
True, the Padres got a split of their four-game series in Philadelphia on Monday, scoring a 3-0 victory after Sunday’s 6-5, 10-inning win. And San Diego took two of three from the Mets last week (and it has won 14 of the last 20 meetings going back to 2007. However, the road team has won 12 of the last 18 meetings in this rivalry.
Again, though, this is about Pelfrey, who limited the Padres to just one run on four hits and two walks while striking out eight in last week’s victory. And Pelfey has been – pardon the pun – lights out in night games this year (7-0, 1.50 ERA in eight games, all Mets wins) as opposed to 1-2 with a 5.09 ERA in daytime action.
Finally, Padres lefty Clayton Richard (4-3, 2.87 ERA) has been solid all year, and that includes a one-run, four-hit, four-walk, six-inning performance against New York on Wednesday (the Padres eventually prevailed 5-1 in 11 innings). But he’s still facing a Mets lineup that’s tattooing lefty pitching this year to the tune of a .291 average overall, a .322 average at home and a .314 average in the last 10 games. Hence the reason New York has won seven in a row at home against southpaws!
The Mets are also on runs of 7-3 against the N.L. West, 7-1 on Tuesday, 8-2 as a home favorite and 5-0 after a day off.
0-1 yesterday. a 15 dime loser on the rangers...back to back losing days...more and more in debt for jeff benton and his followers.. overall, 52-60-3 MINUS 165 dimes.
Tuesday's Winners ... 25 Dime: BOSTON CELTICS
10 Dime: NEW YORK METS ... NOTE: List Mike Pelfrey as New York's starting pitcher. If Pelfrey does not start, this play is VOID!
Celtics
The Laker supporter tonight will undoubtedly argue that if not for Ray Allen’s incredible shooting display in Game – he drained his first seven three-pointers and finished with a game-high 32 points – the Celtics would have returned home down 0-2. I’ll counter that argument with this: Only two players showed up for the Celtics in Game 2 – Allen and point guard Rajon Rondo (19 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) – and the team had 11 fewer points from the free-throw line (and 15 fewer free-throw attempts), and yet Boston won going away 103-94.
Paul Pierce? Contributed just 10 points on 2-for-11 shooting. Kevin Garnett? Six points, four and five fouls in 23 minutes. And yet the Celtics rolled to a nine-point win.
The point is this: If the Celtics can win on the Lakers’ home court with two of their top four players contributing a combined 16 points and eight rebounds, what’s going to happen now that Boston is back home? Granted, it’s highly unlikely that Allen will come close to duplicating his Game 2 performance, but it’s also highly unlikely that Pierce and Garnett will play as poorly as they played.
Also, it’s highly unlikely that L.A. big man Andrew Bynum, who had one of his best games in months with 21 points, six rebounds and seven blocked shots on Sunday, will repeat his effort tonight (especially since he continues to deal with a knee injury that’s going to require surgery when this series ends).
Meanwhile, two interesting trends have begun to develop regarding the Lakers. First off, prior to Sunday, the Lakers had lost just four games in these playoffs, and it was a pair of two-game losing streaks in Games 3 and 4 on the road (at Oklahoma City in the opening round and at Phoenix in the conference finals). Secondly, not only did L.A. lose Game 3 on the road to both the Thunder and Suns, but they barely escaped with a 111-110 win in Utah in Game 3.
In fact, going back to the 2008 playoffs, the Lakers are 3-6 the last nine times they’ve played Game 3 on the road. That’s not a quirk, guys. That tells me this team has trouble adjusting when playing for the first time in enemy territory (when the crowd is more revved up than at any point in a series).
Boston is now on a 10-3-1 ATS roll against the Lakers, including three easy home wins in the NBA Finals back in 2008 (Games 1, 2 and 6). In fact, the Celtics have cashed in seven of eight NBA Finals contests against Los Angeles (only exception coming in Game 1 of this series). Boston is also on an 8-3 SU and ATS roll overall, including 6-2 SU and ATS at home (all as a favorite).
Finally, since an eight-game playoff winning streak (7-1 ATS), the Lakers have now split their last six games (2-4 ATS). And again, so far in this postseason, when Los Angeles loses once, it has not bounced back well. Expect that trend to continue tonight, especially in what’s going to be an extremely hostile environment.
Mets
I’m all about Mike Pelfrey in this one. I backed him in his most recent start a week ago today in San Diego, and he dominated the Padres in a 4-2 win, improving to 8-1 with a 2.39 ERA on the season. And if you take away one bad inning at Philadelphia – a six-run fourth inning – Pelfrey has given up just 13 runs in 70 2/3 innings, good for a paltry 1.47 ERA!
Pelfrey has been incredible at home, too, going 5-0 with a 2.05 ERA in seven starts, with New York winning six of them. Then again, all the Mets do is win at home. They’ve got the biggest home-road split in baseball (22-9 at Citi Field; 8-18 on the highway). And since starting the year 2-3 at home, they’ve won 20 of their last 26 in Queens. That includes a three-game sweep of the Marlins over the weekend, culminating with Sunday’s come-from-behind 7-6 win. That means the Mets carry an eight-game home winning streak into tonight!
True, the Padres got a split of their four-game series in Philadelphia on Monday, scoring a 3-0 victory after Sunday’s 6-5, 10-inning win. And San Diego took two of three from the Mets last week (and it has won 14 of the last 20 meetings going back to 2007. However, the road team has won 12 of the last 18 meetings in this rivalry.
Again, though, this is about Pelfrey, who limited the Padres to just one run on four hits and two walks while striking out eight in last week’s victory. And Pelfey has been – pardon the pun – lights out in night games this year (7-0, 1.50 ERA in eight games, all Mets wins) as opposed to 1-2 with a 5.09 ERA in daytime action.
Finally, Padres lefty Clayton Richard (4-3, 2.87 ERA) has been solid all year, and that includes a one-run, four-hit, four-walk, six-inning performance against New York on Wednesday (the Padres eventually prevailed 5-1 in 11 innings). But he’s still facing a Mets lineup that’s tattooing lefty pitching this year to the tune of a .291 average overall, a .322 average at home and a .314 average in the last 10 games. Hence the reason New York has won seven in a row at home against southpaws!
The Mets are also on runs of 7-3 against the N.L. West, 7-1 on Tuesday, 8-2 as a home favorite and 5-0 after a day off.
