Big Al
At 9 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + Miami Heat to go 'under' the total, as the game falls into a 170-106 ATS Totals System of mine. All 3 meetings in this NBA Finals have gone 'under' the total (based on the closing numbers at CRIS), and Game 4 should be no different. Indeed, Game 3 was the lowest scoring game yet (174 points), but the oddsmakers are a tad slow in making adjustments, especially considering the defensive natures of both ball clubs. Throw in the facts i) .680 (or better) home teams off home playoff losses have gone 'under' the total 72% of the time when the line is between 171 and 206, and that ii) Playoff Game 4s also have a strong tendency to go 'under' the total when the series is situated at 2-games-to-1, and we have all the ammunition we need to pull the trigger on the 'under' in this game. Look for a low-scoring game on Tuesday night. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
At 9:05 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Miami, as Dallas falls into a 100%, 13-0 ATS Finals system of mine. Our system hasn't lost since June 1993, and what we want to do is play on any team off an upset loss, provided they're not favored by more than 4 points, if they're matched up against a .745 (or worse) opponent. With the Mavs in off an upset loss in Game 3, we'll ride Dirk Nowitzki & Co. to the win column on Tuesday. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Our 3 selections include the Brewers, the Under in the Dodgers/Phillies game, and the over in the Pirates/Diamondbacks game.
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates 'over' the total. The two most surprising teams in the National League face off in the first of this three-game set in Pittsburgh and speaking of surprising, Kevin Correia is the league leader in wins and there isn't a single person who would have expected that in April. Correia epitomizes this staff as he does not throw hard (only about a strikeout every two innings on average) and like teammate Charlie Morton, Correia induces a lot of ground balls outs for this team. Perhaps with guys like Correia and Morton on the staff, the grounds crew in Pittsburgh has made the infield nice and slow but whatever the reason, this is a team that is enjoying the most success they've had in some time. Another reason for Correia's success is the runs support he's received from his offense. In his last six starts, going back to the beginning of May, the Pirates have scored a total of 35 runs, or just about six runs per game for the veteran righthander. Correia has an extended history against the D-Backs from his days in the NL West and given how he's struggled against them (4-8 with a 4.80 ERA in just under 94 innings), he will likely need that run support again tonight. The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings, and we'll look for a relatively high-scoring game. Take the 'over.'
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies 'under' the total. The Phillies couldn't salvage their recent horrendous nine-game road trip, but at least by winning the final game against the Pirates they ended up at 4-5 instead of 3-6. Now they're home and already starting to look better as evidenced by their 3-1 opening night win against the Dodgers on Monday. Tonight they will try to do it again as they send righthander Roy Oswalt to the mound for his 10th start of the season, and they're hoping to get their offense going but they will have to do it against a talented young pitcher who they've never seen before. 22-year-old rookie righthander Rubby De La Rosa will be making his Major League debut tonight after three relief appearances this season and this is an aggressive youngster from the Dominican Republic with a pretty impressive minor league resume that started when he was just 18. The Phillies hitters could have some problems with De La Rosa as could the Dodger lineup with Oswalt as the veteran has had quite a bit of success when facing Dodger Blue in his career, going 8-3 with a 2.84 ERA in 73 innings against them. Take the 'under.'
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the New York Mets. The Brewers return home from a seven-game road trip which saw them go 5-2 and that's great news for this team which just happens to have the best home record in baseball (not to mention a Major League-best 20-6 over their previous 26 games). The Brewers know that if they can keep winning at home the way they have been - or even close to that - then all they need to do on the road is go slightly better than .500 and they have a great chance at winning their first division title in a long time. After all, this 2011 version is one of the healthiest and talented clubs they've had in many years. Mets lefthander Chris Capuano called Milwaukee home for the better part of six seasons and this will be his first appearance there as an opposing pitcher. Unfortunately for him, Miller Park was not always the friendliest place when he was the home team hurler, as in 70 career appearances there (59 starts) Capuano put up a 4.07 ERA, a number that is significantly higher than Capuano logged in many of the other parks in the league. Like the Brewers never having seen Capuano, the Mets have also never seen righthander Shaun Marcum, and that will likely be a bigger problem for them tonight. Marcum is in the midst of his best season ever with the best supporting cast he's ever had. The Brewers have dominated this series, taking eight of the last 11 meetings. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Minnesota Twins. It seems that Francisco Liriano has packed an entire career into the first two months of the 2011 season. The Twins' veteran lefthander has had a no-hitter, gotten bombed in one of the worst starts of his career, and had a stint on the DL all in his first nine starts. He comes into this game off of the latter situation which was caused by inflammation in his throwing shoulder and there's no telling what we're going to see from the six-year veteran in Cleveland tonight. But Cleveland's ballpark has not been very friendly to him throughout his career, as Liriano is 2-1 with an ugly 5.14 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in seven appearances (five starts) at Progressive Field. The Indians' Carlos Carrasco came back recently from his own injury problems, but unlike Liriano he's already had five starts since returning from the DL, and he's gotten a decision in each of them, going 3-2 since his comeback. He appears to be healthy and is still developing as a young starter, but there is no doubt that the talent is there with the 24-year-old and a start against the anemic Twins - his second of the season and first at home - should give Carrasco a great shot at boosting his confidence and securing his place in the Cleveland rotation. Heading into the week's games, Cleveland is 25-10 in its last 35 home games. Take the Tribe. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
At 9 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + Miami Heat to go 'under' the total, as the game falls into a 170-106 ATS Totals System of mine. All 3 meetings in this NBA Finals have gone 'under' the total (based on the closing numbers at CRIS), and Game 4 should be no different. Indeed, Game 3 was the lowest scoring game yet (174 points), but the oddsmakers are a tad slow in making adjustments, especially considering the defensive natures of both ball clubs. Throw in the facts i) .680 (or better) home teams off home playoff losses have gone 'under' the total 72% of the time when the line is between 171 and 206, and that ii) Playoff Game 4s also have a strong tendency to go 'under' the total when the series is situated at 2-games-to-1, and we have all the ammunition we need to pull the trigger on the 'under' in this game. Look for a low-scoring game on Tuesday night. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
At 9:05 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Miami, as Dallas falls into a 100%, 13-0 ATS Finals system of mine. Our system hasn't lost since June 1993, and what we want to do is play on any team off an upset loss, provided they're not favored by more than 4 points, if they're matched up against a .745 (or worse) opponent. With the Mavs in off an upset loss in Game 3, we'll ride Dirk Nowitzki & Co. to the win column on Tuesday. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Our 3 selections include the Brewers, the Under in the Dodgers/Phillies game, and the over in the Pirates/Diamondbacks game.
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates 'over' the total. The two most surprising teams in the National League face off in the first of this three-game set in Pittsburgh and speaking of surprising, Kevin Correia is the league leader in wins and there isn't a single person who would have expected that in April. Correia epitomizes this staff as he does not throw hard (only about a strikeout every two innings on average) and like teammate Charlie Morton, Correia induces a lot of ground balls outs for this team. Perhaps with guys like Correia and Morton on the staff, the grounds crew in Pittsburgh has made the infield nice and slow but whatever the reason, this is a team that is enjoying the most success they've had in some time. Another reason for Correia's success is the runs support he's received from his offense. In his last six starts, going back to the beginning of May, the Pirates have scored a total of 35 runs, or just about six runs per game for the veteran righthander. Correia has an extended history against the D-Backs from his days in the NL West and given how he's struggled against them (4-8 with a 4.80 ERA in just under 94 innings), he will likely need that run support again tonight. The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings, and we'll look for a relatively high-scoring game. Take the 'over.'
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies 'under' the total. The Phillies couldn't salvage their recent horrendous nine-game road trip, but at least by winning the final game against the Pirates they ended up at 4-5 instead of 3-6. Now they're home and already starting to look better as evidenced by their 3-1 opening night win against the Dodgers on Monday. Tonight they will try to do it again as they send righthander Roy Oswalt to the mound for his 10th start of the season, and they're hoping to get their offense going but they will have to do it against a talented young pitcher who they've never seen before. 22-year-old rookie righthander Rubby De La Rosa will be making his Major League debut tonight after three relief appearances this season and this is an aggressive youngster from the Dominican Republic with a pretty impressive minor league resume that started when he was just 18. The Phillies hitters could have some problems with De La Rosa as could the Dodger lineup with Oswalt as the veteran has had quite a bit of success when facing Dodger Blue in his career, going 8-3 with a 2.84 ERA in 73 innings against them. Take the 'under.'
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the New York Mets. The Brewers return home from a seven-game road trip which saw them go 5-2 and that's great news for this team which just happens to have the best home record in baseball (not to mention a Major League-best 20-6 over their previous 26 games). The Brewers know that if they can keep winning at home the way they have been - or even close to that - then all they need to do on the road is go slightly better than .500 and they have a great chance at winning their first division title in a long time. After all, this 2011 version is one of the healthiest and talented clubs they've had in many years. Mets lefthander Chris Capuano called Milwaukee home for the better part of six seasons and this will be his first appearance there as an opposing pitcher. Unfortunately for him, Miller Park was not always the friendliest place when he was the home team hurler, as in 70 career appearances there (59 starts) Capuano put up a 4.07 ERA, a number that is significantly higher than Capuano logged in many of the other parks in the league. Like the Brewers never having seen Capuano, the Mets have also never seen righthander Shaun Marcum, and that will likely be a bigger problem for them tonight. Marcum is in the midst of his best season ever with the best supporting cast he's ever had. The Brewers have dominated this series, taking eight of the last 11 meetings. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Minnesota Twins. It seems that Francisco Liriano has packed an entire career into the first two months of the 2011 season. The Twins' veteran lefthander has had a no-hitter, gotten bombed in one of the worst starts of his career, and had a stint on the DL all in his first nine starts. He comes into this game off of the latter situation which was caused by inflammation in his throwing shoulder and there's no telling what we're going to see from the six-year veteran in Cleveland tonight. But Cleveland's ballpark has not been very friendly to him throughout his career, as Liriano is 2-1 with an ugly 5.14 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in seven appearances (five starts) at Progressive Field. The Indians' Carlos Carrasco came back recently from his own injury problems, but unlike Liriano he's already had five starts since returning from the DL, and he's gotten a decision in each of them, going 3-2 since his comeback. He appears to be healthy and is still developing as a young starter, but there is no doubt that the talent is there with the 24-year-old and a start against the anemic Twins - his second of the season and first at home - should give Carrasco a great shot at boosting his confidence and securing his place in the Cleveland rotation. Heading into the week's games, Cleveland is 25-10 in its last 35 home games. Take the Tribe. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
