Don Wallace
NBA
Tuesday June 7th, 2011
Release Time - 8:38 CENTRAL
ROTATION - 703# - 5UNIT* - DALLAS -3 (-110 BODOG.EU) 9:00 EST
ANALYSIS:In Game 2# Terry was a huge part of the Mav's come back scoring the first 6 points in the quarter and 8 overall, in a 22-5 surge to close out Miami. In Game 3# Nowitzki scored Dallas' final 12 points, Terry went 0-4 in the 4th quarter, including a 21-footer with the game tied. Miami has flustered Dallas with its combination of active, long arm defenders who seem to always be in the right place defensively at the right time. The Heat continue to charge shooters, making the Mav's get off shots too quickly or to opt to pass. Which may explain why the Mav's are -11 in the turnover battle in this series. Tonight is Dallas' Game 7#! From a historical perspective , the situation clearly looks bleak for the Maverick's, now down 2-1. Since the NBA went to a 2-3-2 format in 1985, the Game 3# winner of a 1-1 series has gone on to win the title every time. Add anther loss to the ledger and the impending doom is a well documented certainty.........considering that no team has ever rallied back from 3-1 defict in the NBA Finals. Look for Dallas to throw everything but the kitchen sink at the Heat tonight! If the Mav's can put up a 100, Miami will not beat them. You can throw out all the technicals. DALLAS 101 MIAMI 92
NBA
Tuesday June 7th, 2011
Release Time - 8:38 CENTRAL
ROTATION - 703# - 5UNIT* - DALLAS -3 (-110 BODOG.EU) 9:00 EST
ANALYSIS:In Game 2# Terry was a huge part of the Mav's come back scoring the first 6 points in the quarter and 8 overall, in a 22-5 surge to close out Miami. In Game 3# Nowitzki scored Dallas' final 12 points, Terry went 0-4 in the 4th quarter, including a 21-footer with the game tied. Miami has flustered Dallas with its combination of active, long arm defenders who seem to always be in the right place defensively at the right time. The Heat continue to charge shooters, making the Mav's get off shots too quickly or to opt to pass. Which may explain why the Mav's are -11 in the turnover battle in this series. Tonight is Dallas' Game 7#! From a historical perspective , the situation clearly looks bleak for the Maverick's, now down 2-1. Since the NBA went to a 2-3-2 format in 1985, the Game 3# winner of a 1-1 series has gone on to win the title every time. Add anther loss to the ledger and the impending doom is a well documented certainty.........considering that no team has ever rallied back from 3-1 defict in the NBA Finals. Look for Dallas to throw everything but the kitchen sink at the Heat tonight! If the Mav's can put up a 100, Miami will not beat them. You can throw out all the technicals. DALLAS 101 MIAMI 92
NBA
Write-Up
Tuesday, June 7
Nowitzki was off floor for 6:02 in Game 3; Mavs were outscored by 14 points in that 6:02; other than Dirk, Dallas shot 34.7% for game, so they have to get someone else to score, or this series will end soon. Miami is 5-3 on road in playoffs; their bench has been +20/+21 in its two wins, and -22 in game they lost. Dallas has done great job keeping James off foul line (8 FTA/three games)- they're giving Bosh (16-52 30.8% so far in series) open jumpers and he's making 31% of them. Mavs are +17 on boards last two games, after being -10 in opener. Lot of stars in series, but whichever team has a stronger supporting class will win the title. Mavericks are now 6-2 at home in playoffs.
Write-Up
Tuesday, June 7
Nowitzki was off floor for 6:02 in Game 3; Mavs were outscored by 14 points in that 6:02; other than Dirk, Dallas shot 34.7% for game, so they have to get someone else to score, or this series will end soon. Miami is 5-3 on road in playoffs; their bench has been +20/+21 in its two wins, and -22 in game they lost. Dallas has done great job keeping James off foul line (8 FTA/three games)- they're giving Bosh (16-52 30.8% so far in series) open jumpers and he's making 31% of them. Mavs are +17 on boards last two games, after being -10 in opener. Lot of stars in series, but whichever team has a stronger supporting class will win the title. Mavericks are now 6-2 at home in playoffs.
WNBA Dunkel
Tulsa at Minnesota
The Shock look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 10-21 ATS in its last 31 games against a team with a losing SU record. Tulsa is the pick (+14) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by only 11. Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+14). Here are all of today's picks.
TUESDAY, JUNE 7
Game 651-652: Tulsa at Minnesota (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 100.756; Minnesota 111.890
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 11; 171
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 14; 167 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+14); Over
Tulsa at Minnesota
The Shock look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 10-21 ATS in its last 31 games against a team with a losing SU record. Tulsa is the pick (+14) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by only 11. Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+14). Here are all of today's picks.
TUESDAY, JUNE 7
Game 651-652: Tulsa at Minnesota (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 100.756; Minnesota 111.890
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 11; 171
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 14; 167 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+14); Over
FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME
MLB Baseball Tuesday
Play Philadelphia (-175) over Los Angeles (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST
Philadelphia has won 20 of the last 26 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and they have also won 17 of the last 22 games coming off three or more games with no home runs. Roy Oswalt is 8-2 vs. Los Angeles over his career with an ERA of 2.76 and he has an ERA of 2.00 over the last three starts.
Play Milwaukee (-185) over New York Mets (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 8:10 PM EST
Milwaukee has won 13 of the last 16 games and they have also won 20 of the last 26 home games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Milwaukee has won 12 of the last 13 home games as a favorite of -150 or higher and they have also won 12 of the last 15 games when batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span.
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Play Cincinnati (-155) over Chicago Cubs (Bonus)
MLB Baseball Tuesday
Play Philadelphia (-175) over Los Angeles (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST
Philadelphia has won 20 of the last 26 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and they have also won 17 of the last 22 games coming off three or more games with no home runs. Roy Oswalt is 8-2 vs. Los Angeles over his career with an ERA of 2.76 and he has an ERA of 2.00 over the last three starts.
Play Milwaukee (-185) over New York Mets (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 8:10 PM EST
Milwaukee has won 13 of the last 16 games and they have also won 20 of the last 26 home games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Milwaukee has won 12 of the last 13 home games as a favorite of -150 or higher and they have also won 12 of the last 15 games when batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span.
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Play Cincinnati (-155) over Chicago Cubs (Bonus)
Pitchers
Hot pitchers
-- Oswalt has a 2.56 RA but no wins in his last four starts.
-- Correia is 3-0, 1.77 in his last three starts. Arizona won last four DHudson starts (3-0, 4.18).
-- Hanson is 1-0, 3.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Marcum is 2-1, 2.89 in his last four starts.
-- Westbrook is 3-0, 2.45 in his last four starts.
-- Jimenez has a 1.57 RA in his last three road starts.
-- JSanchez is 1-0, 2.95 in his last three starts. Zimmerman has a 2.33 RA in his last three starts.
-- Moscoso is 2-0, 3.27 in two starts this season.
-- Liriano was 2-1, 2.52 in his last four starts before going on DL.
-- Porcello is 5-1, 2.74 in his last eight starts. Harrison is 2-0, 1.07 in his last four starts.
-- FHernandez is 2-0, 2.45 in his last three starts. Humber is 1-0, 2.82 in his last three starts.
-- Haren is 1-1, 3.31 in his last five starts.
Cold pitchers
-- de la Rosa has allowed one run in five IP in three big league games; this is his first major league start- he was 2-2, 2.92 in eight AA starts.
-- Hand was 7-1, 3.53 in 11 AA starts this year; this is his MLB debut.
-- DDavis is 0-4, 7.78 in his last four starts. Volquez was 0-1, 9.24 in his last three starts before being sent to AAA.
-- Former Brewer Capuano is 1-4, 4.84 in his last six starts.
-- Myers is 1-4, 6.07 in his last seven starts.
-- Stauffer is 1-3, 5.79 in his last four starts.
-- Lester has a 6.52 RA in his last five starts. FGarcia is 2-2, 4.56 in his last four starts.
-- Jakubauskus is 6-8, 5.59 in 41 big league games (nine starts); he has allowed nine runs in 12.2 IP in big leagues this season. .
-- Carrasco has a 5.72 RA in his last five starts.
-- Mazzaro is back in big leagues for first time since giving up 14 runs in a relief appearance May 16. Drabek is 0-2, 6.08 in his last three starts.
-- Cobb has a 5.91 RA in two starts for the Rays.
Totals
-- Over is 6-3-1 in Dodgers' last ten road games.
-- Under is 8-3-2 in Arizona's last thirteen road games.
-- Over is 11-3-1 in Cincinnati's last fifteen home games.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in Atlanta's last five games.
-- Five of last seven Houston games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven games at Miller Park went over the total.
-- Under is 17-6 in Colorado's last 23 road games.
-- Under is 12-3 in San Francisco's last fifteen home games.
-- Last six Boston games went over the total.
-- Eight of last eleven games at Camden Yards went over the total.
-- Four of last six Minnesota road games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Texas home games went over the total.
-- Six of White Sox' last eight home games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Toronto games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-0-1 in Angels' last nine home games.
Hot Teams
-- Phillies won six of their last eight home games.
-- Arizona won 18 of its last 23 games. Pirates are 6-4 in their last ten.
-- Cincinnati is 11-5 in its last sixteen home games.
-- Milwaukee won 13 of its last 16 games. Mets won three of their last four games, but lost four of last five on road.
-- Cardinals won six of their last eight road games.
-- Giants won five of their last six games.
-- San Diego won seven of its last ten games.
-- Bronx won eight of its last eleven games. Red Sox won five of their last six road games.
-- Minnesota won its last five games, allowing ten runs.
-- White Sox won seven of their last ten home games. Mariners won 14 of their last 19 games.
-- Rangers won 11 of their last 15 games. Detroit won seven of eight.
-- Blue Jays won seven of their last eleven road games.
Cold Teams
-- Los Angeles lost six of its last nine road games.
-- Marlins lost seven of their last eight games. Atlanta is 4-6 in its last ten road games.
-- Cubs lost nine of their last ten games.
-- Astros lost four of their last five home games.
-- Washington lost 14 of its last 19 games.
-- Colorado lost 12 of its last 17 games.
-- Cleveland lost 10 of its last 13 games, seven in row at home.
-- Orioles lost seven of their last ten games. Oakland lost its last seven games, outscored 46-24.
-- Kansas City lost 12 of its last 16 games.
-- Angels are 10-14 in their last 24 home games. Tampa Bay lost 11 of its last 17 games.
Umpires
-- LA-Phil-- Favorite won five of last six Kellogg games, with last three games going over total.
-- Chi-Cin-- Over is 7-0-1 in last eight Nauert games.
-- Colo-SD-- Underdog won seven of last ten Nelson games.
-- Wsh-SF-- Five of last seven Gibson games stayed under total.
-- A's-Balt-- Underdog won six of last eight Everitt games.
-- Minn-Clev-- Last four Johnson games went over the total.
-- Det-Tex-- Four of last five Hickox games stayed under total.
-- Tor-KC-- Seven of last eight Wolf games stayed under; underdogs are 7-1 in his last eight games behind dish.
-- Sea-Chi-- Five of six Reyburn games stayed under the total.
-- TB-LA-- Under is 7-3-1 in Diaz games this season.
Hot pitchers
-- Oswalt has a 2.56 RA but no wins in his last four starts.
-- Correia is 3-0, 1.77 in his last three starts. Arizona won last four DHudson starts (3-0, 4.18).
-- Hanson is 1-0, 3.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Marcum is 2-1, 2.89 in his last four starts.
-- Westbrook is 3-0, 2.45 in his last four starts.
-- Jimenez has a 1.57 RA in his last three road starts.
-- JSanchez is 1-0, 2.95 in his last three starts. Zimmerman has a 2.33 RA in his last three starts.
-- Moscoso is 2-0, 3.27 in two starts this season.
-- Liriano was 2-1, 2.52 in his last four starts before going on DL.
-- Porcello is 5-1, 2.74 in his last eight starts. Harrison is 2-0, 1.07 in his last four starts.
-- FHernandez is 2-0, 2.45 in his last three starts. Humber is 1-0, 2.82 in his last three starts.
-- Haren is 1-1, 3.31 in his last five starts.
Cold pitchers
-- de la Rosa has allowed one run in five IP in three big league games; this is his first major league start- he was 2-2, 2.92 in eight AA starts.
-- Hand was 7-1, 3.53 in 11 AA starts this year; this is his MLB debut.
-- DDavis is 0-4, 7.78 in his last four starts. Volquez was 0-1, 9.24 in his last three starts before being sent to AAA.
-- Former Brewer Capuano is 1-4, 4.84 in his last six starts.
-- Myers is 1-4, 6.07 in his last seven starts.
-- Stauffer is 1-3, 5.79 in his last four starts.
-- Lester has a 6.52 RA in his last five starts. FGarcia is 2-2, 4.56 in his last four starts.
-- Jakubauskus is 6-8, 5.59 in 41 big league games (nine starts); he has allowed nine runs in 12.2 IP in big leagues this season. .
-- Carrasco has a 5.72 RA in his last five starts.
-- Mazzaro is back in big leagues for first time since giving up 14 runs in a relief appearance May 16. Drabek is 0-2, 6.08 in his last three starts.
-- Cobb has a 5.91 RA in two starts for the Rays.
Totals
-- Over is 6-3-1 in Dodgers' last ten road games.
-- Under is 8-3-2 in Arizona's last thirteen road games.
-- Over is 11-3-1 in Cincinnati's last fifteen home games.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in Atlanta's last five games.
-- Five of last seven Houston games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven games at Miller Park went over the total.
-- Under is 17-6 in Colorado's last 23 road games.
-- Under is 12-3 in San Francisco's last fifteen home games.
-- Last six Boston games went over the total.
-- Eight of last eleven games at Camden Yards went over the total.
-- Four of last six Minnesota road games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Texas home games went over the total.
-- Six of White Sox' last eight home games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Toronto games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-0-1 in Angels' last nine home games.
Hot Teams
-- Phillies won six of their last eight home games.
-- Arizona won 18 of its last 23 games. Pirates are 6-4 in their last ten.
-- Cincinnati is 11-5 in its last sixteen home games.
-- Milwaukee won 13 of its last 16 games. Mets won three of their last four games, but lost four of last five on road.
-- Cardinals won six of their last eight road games.
-- Giants won five of their last six games.
-- San Diego won seven of its last ten games.
-- Bronx won eight of its last eleven games. Red Sox won five of their last six road games.
-- Minnesota won its last five games, allowing ten runs.
-- White Sox won seven of their last ten home games. Mariners won 14 of their last 19 games.
-- Rangers won 11 of their last 15 games. Detroit won seven of eight.
-- Blue Jays won seven of their last eleven road games.
Cold Teams
-- Los Angeles lost six of its last nine road games.
-- Marlins lost seven of their last eight games. Atlanta is 4-6 in its last ten road games.
-- Cubs lost nine of their last ten games.
-- Astros lost four of their last five home games.
-- Washington lost 14 of its last 19 games.
-- Colorado lost 12 of its last 17 games.
-- Cleveland lost 10 of its last 13 games, seven in row at home.
-- Orioles lost seven of their last ten games. Oakland lost its last seven games, outscored 46-24.
-- Kansas City lost 12 of its last 16 games.
-- Angels are 10-14 in their last 24 home games. Tampa Bay lost 11 of its last 17 games.
Umpires
-- LA-Phil-- Favorite won five of last six Kellogg games, with last three games going over total.
-- Chi-Cin-- Over is 7-0-1 in last eight Nauert games.
-- Colo-SD-- Underdog won seven of last ten Nelson games.
-- Wsh-SF-- Five of last seven Gibson games stayed under total.
-- A's-Balt-- Underdog won six of last eight Everitt games.
-- Minn-Clev-- Last four Johnson games went over the total.
-- Det-Tex-- Four of last five Hickox games stayed under total.
-- Tor-KC-- Seven of last eight Wolf games stayed under; underdogs are 7-1 in his last eight games behind dish.
-- Sea-Chi-- Five of six Reyburn games stayed under the total.
-- TB-LA-- Under is 7-3-1 in Diaz games this season.
SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles +162 over PHILADELPHIA
The Phillies win a lot of baseball games but their offense is one that is becoming less feared by the day. They’ll explode from time to time, just like any other team, but they’re not even average anymore. Playing half their games in one of the friendliest hitting parks in the majors, Philadelphia ranks 16th in the entire league in runs scored, 17th in team batting average and 15th in OPS. Over their last five games the Phillies have not gone yard, they’ve scored 15 runs and they’re batting .231. Over their last 30 games, the Phillies are a .500 team (15-15), yet they’re heavily favored almost daily because teams have to face either Halliday, Lee, Hamels or tonight’s starter, Roy Oswalt. That proves further how below average the offense is and how much value comes with taking the dog. Keep your eye on Rubby De La Rosa. De La Rosa owns pure arm strength and can light up radar guns with his fastball that often touches triple digits. He'll sit between 93-98 mph and is tough to hit. He throws with whip-like arm action, which gives him deception and pitch movement. De La Rosa also uses a slider and changeup, though both are still in the development phase. When on, his sharp slider exhibits nasty action, but he doesn't throw it for strikes consistently. The good news is that his feet are wet and he’s only walked one batter in five frames covering three relief appearances. He’s also struck out five and at this price against some bats that can easily get dominated, he and the Dodgers are worth a play. Play: Los Angeles +162 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –1½ +123 over Chicago
The Chicago Cubs should take Matt Garza, Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney aside and tell everyone else to “GET THE F**K OUTTA HERE”. The Cubbies own the league’s worst record and it’s no mystery as to why. They make mental errors, they make physical errors and you rarely see them execute the fundamentals with success. After a double to lead off an inning, or with men on first and second with no outs, moving him/them over with a productive out or bunt rarely happens. They don’t manufacture runs and instead rely on the two or three run jack, and that, too, seldom occurs. Over the past week, the Cubs are batting a league-low .209 BA with an embarrassing .578 OPS. Their staff ERA on the road (5.11) is the worst in the league as well. The pitching staffs of Cincinnati and Chicago have offered up the two highest walk totals in the NL this season. Cincinnati’s hitters are second in the NL in drawing walks, while the Cubs are dead last in that category. Tonight the Cubs are going to throw Doug Davis out there to get slaughtered. This guy can’t get guys out at Petco, AT & T or Chavez Ravine so the writing is on the wall for how he’s going to fair at Great American. Davis is also a lefty and the Reds possess some staggering numbers against southpaws that make them the best in the league when facing one. This isn’t even a good lefty. Lou Pinella walked out on the Cubs because he couldn’t stomach it any more and who could blame him now? Play: Cincinnati –1½ +123 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +132 over SAN FRANCISCO
When you wager on a strong pitcher facing the Giants you’re chances of cashing the ticket are good. San Francisco’s home OPS is 13th in the league (.661), and most of that was when Buster Posey was playing. Earlier this week on Sirius/XM radio, Roy Halladay was asked what pitcher he can envision breaking out, and he didn't hesitate a second before he blurted out one name: Jordan Zimmermann. Looks like Halladay knows what he is talking about. Entering this season, Zimmermann had delivered 120 IP of a sub-4.00 xERA, so a sub 4.00 ERA seems like a reasonable expectation as that strand rate of 68% is bound to normalize. It took a while to recover from his August 2009 Tommy John surgery, but Zimmermann's velocity is back. Zimmermann's control is better than ever before, as he’s now walked just 14 batters in 67 frames. The kid is getting stronger and better with each passing start and surely he can do well against this light-hitting group. By contrast, Jonathan Sanchez has issued 40 walks in 69 innings. He struggles to throw strikes while pitching from a full windup and that leads to a lot of leadoff walks to begin an inning. Sanchez has decent stuff but those leadoff walks have hurt him and that’s why he has just four wins in 12 starts. Play: Washington +132 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona –112 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates could definitely be in a big letdown spot here after they sold out three games at PNC over the weekend and had yesterday off. The whole city was engaged and so was every player from top to bottom. Tonight PNC will be three quarters empty again and so might the Pirates tank. Additionally, the Pirates are batting a puny .219 at home and have a tough assignment facing Daniel Hudson. Hudson has won six of his last seven decisions and has a 41/7 K/BB over that period. Hudson has a career BAA of .236 and current Pirates have only had 11 AB’s against him and have two hits (.182). Kevin Correia's early results with Pittsburgh have been encouraging: 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 77 IP. The optimism ends there though. Most of his base skills have been terrible. He has a low strikeout rate, a high strand percentage and he’s been helped greatly by a very low and unsustainable 27% hit rate. A correction is coming, that you can be sure of. Correia is 1-3 at PNC with a 5.47 ERA and he’ll face a hot D-Backs club with a league-leading .847 OPS over the past week. Lay the small tag. Play: Arizona –112 (Risking 2.24 units to win 2).
We’re also going to make three, three-game parlays tonight that look like this:
Boston –124 - Cinci –1½ +123 - Washington +130 (Risking 0.2 units to win 1.64 units).
Boston –124 - Cinci –1½ +123 – Dodgers +162 (Risking 0.2 units to win 1.86 units).
Boston –124 - Cinci –1½ +123 – Milwaukee –1½ +120 (Risking 0.2 units to win 1.54 units).
Los Angeles +162 over PHILADELPHIA
The Phillies win a lot of baseball games but their offense is one that is becoming less feared by the day. They’ll explode from time to time, just like any other team, but they’re not even average anymore. Playing half their games in one of the friendliest hitting parks in the majors, Philadelphia ranks 16th in the entire league in runs scored, 17th in team batting average and 15th in OPS. Over their last five games the Phillies have not gone yard, they’ve scored 15 runs and they’re batting .231. Over their last 30 games, the Phillies are a .500 team (15-15), yet they’re heavily favored almost daily because teams have to face either Halliday, Lee, Hamels or tonight’s starter, Roy Oswalt. That proves further how below average the offense is and how much value comes with taking the dog. Keep your eye on Rubby De La Rosa. De La Rosa owns pure arm strength and can light up radar guns with his fastball that often touches triple digits. He'll sit between 93-98 mph and is tough to hit. He throws with whip-like arm action, which gives him deception and pitch movement. De La Rosa also uses a slider and changeup, though both are still in the development phase. When on, his sharp slider exhibits nasty action, but he doesn't throw it for strikes consistently. The good news is that his feet are wet and he’s only walked one batter in five frames covering three relief appearances. He’s also struck out five and at this price against some bats that can easily get dominated, he and the Dodgers are worth a play. Play: Los Angeles +162 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –1½ +123 over Chicago
The Chicago Cubs should take Matt Garza, Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney aside and tell everyone else to “GET THE F**K OUTTA HERE”. The Cubbies own the league’s worst record and it’s no mystery as to why. They make mental errors, they make physical errors and you rarely see them execute the fundamentals with success. After a double to lead off an inning, or with men on first and second with no outs, moving him/them over with a productive out or bunt rarely happens. They don’t manufacture runs and instead rely on the two or three run jack, and that, too, seldom occurs. Over the past week, the Cubs are batting a league-low .209 BA with an embarrassing .578 OPS. Their staff ERA on the road (5.11) is the worst in the league as well. The pitching staffs of Cincinnati and Chicago have offered up the two highest walk totals in the NL this season. Cincinnati’s hitters are second in the NL in drawing walks, while the Cubs are dead last in that category. Tonight the Cubs are going to throw Doug Davis out there to get slaughtered. This guy can’t get guys out at Petco, AT & T or Chavez Ravine so the writing is on the wall for how he’s going to fair at Great American. Davis is also a lefty and the Reds possess some staggering numbers against southpaws that make them the best in the league when facing one. This isn’t even a good lefty. Lou Pinella walked out on the Cubs because he couldn’t stomach it any more and who could blame him now? Play: Cincinnati –1½ +123 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +132 over SAN FRANCISCO
When you wager on a strong pitcher facing the Giants you’re chances of cashing the ticket are good. San Francisco’s home OPS is 13th in the league (.661), and most of that was when Buster Posey was playing. Earlier this week on Sirius/XM radio, Roy Halladay was asked what pitcher he can envision breaking out, and he didn't hesitate a second before he blurted out one name: Jordan Zimmermann. Looks like Halladay knows what he is talking about. Entering this season, Zimmermann had delivered 120 IP of a sub-4.00 xERA, so a sub 4.00 ERA seems like a reasonable expectation as that strand rate of 68% is bound to normalize. It took a while to recover from his August 2009 Tommy John surgery, but Zimmermann's velocity is back. Zimmermann's control is better than ever before, as he’s now walked just 14 batters in 67 frames. The kid is getting stronger and better with each passing start and surely he can do well against this light-hitting group. By contrast, Jonathan Sanchez has issued 40 walks in 69 innings. He struggles to throw strikes while pitching from a full windup and that leads to a lot of leadoff walks to begin an inning. Sanchez has decent stuff but those leadoff walks have hurt him and that’s why he has just four wins in 12 starts. Play: Washington +132 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona –112 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates could definitely be in a big letdown spot here after they sold out three games at PNC over the weekend and had yesterday off. The whole city was engaged and so was every player from top to bottom. Tonight PNC will be three quarters empty again and so might the Pirates tank. Additionally, the Pirates are batting a puny .219 at home and have a tough assignment facing Daniel Hudson. Hudson has won six of his last seven decisions and has a 41/7 K/BB over that period. Hudson has a career BAA of .236 and current Pirates have only had 11 AB’s against him and have two hits (.182). Kevin Correia's early results with Pittsburgh have been encouraging: 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 77 IP. The optimism ends there though. Most of his base skills have been terrible. He has a low strikeout rate, a high strand percentage and he’s been helped greatly by a very low and unsustainable 27% hit rate. A correction is coming, that you can be sure of. Correia is 1-3 at PNC with a 5.47 ERA and he’ll face a hot D-Backs club with a league-leading .847 OPS over the past week. Lay the small tag. Play: Arizona –112 (Risking 2.24 units to win 2).
We’re also going to make three, three-game parlays tonight that look like this:
Boston –124 - Cinci –1½ +123 - Washington +130 (Risking 0.2 units to win 1.64 units).
Boston –124 - Cinci –1½ +123 – Dodgers +162 (Risking 0.2 units to win 1.86 units).
Boston –124 - Cinci –1½ +123 – Milwaukee –1½ +120 (Risking 0.2 units to win 1.54 units).
GC MLB Play
Wednesday NBA 34-2 Triple System Finals Game of the Year + 15-0 MLB Total of the Week and 15-2 MLB Power System Play lead Solid Card. MLB Cashes 2 of 3 on Monday and Bonus Plays move to 20-10. Solid Free MLB System Play below.
On Tuesday the MLB free System play is on the Cincinnati Reds. Game 906 at 7:10 eastern. The Reds fit a solid system. We want to play on home favorites off a home favored win by 5+ runs on 10+ hits with no more than one error, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs and scored 2 or less hits on 10+ hits. These home teams have won 14 of 17 times over the past 8+ years. The Cubs have D. Davis on the mound and he was roughed up pretty good in his lone road start. Davis allowed 7 runs in 3+ innings in that road start. Tonight he opposes E. Volquez. While Volquez has been mediocre of late he should benefit from a decimated Chicago lineup. With the reds averaging 6.7 runs per game vs Left handers this season. We will back them here tonight. On Wednesday I have a Big Card led by the 34-2 Triple System NBA Finals Play and a 15-0 MLB Totals system and 15-2 MLB Power System Plays. MLB Cashed 2 of 3 last night and Bonus Plays have cashed 20 of 30. Jump on and cash tonight. For the Bonus Play take the Reds. GC
Wednesday NBA 34-2 Triple System Finals Game of the Year + 15-0 MLB Total of the Week and 15-2 MLB Power System Play lead Solid Card. MLB Cashes 2 of 3 on Monday and Bonus Plays move to 20-10. Solid Free MLB System Play below.
On Tuesday the MLB free System play is on the Cincinnati Reds. Game 906 at 7:10 eastern. The Reds fit a solid system. We want to play on home favorites off a home favored win by 5+ runs on 10+ hits with no more than one error, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs and scored 2 or less hits on 10+ hits. These home teams have won 14 of 17 times over the past 8+ years. The Cubs have D. Davis on the mound and he was roughed up pretty good in his lone road start. Davis allowed 7 runs in 3+ innings in that road start. Tonight he opposes E. Volquez. While Volquez has been mediocre of late he should benefit from a decimated Chicago lineup. With the reds averaging 6.7 runs per game vs Left handers this season. We will back them here tonight. On Wednesday I have a Big Card led by the 34-2 Triple System NBA Finals Play and a 15-0 MLB Totals system and 15-2 MLB Power System Plays. MLB Cashed 2 of 3 last night and Bonus Plays have cashed 20 of 30. Jump on and cash tonight. For the Bonus Play take the Reds. GC
