Wunderdog Sports
Braves @ Rockies
FREE Pick: Under 10
The Atlanta Braves are not the best offensive team in the league, but one thing they typically get is a well-pitched game. And the back of their bullpen is rock solid, and rarely fails to get the job done. This team typically plays games that are low scoring, and through 62 games this season they have seen just 13 of them produce 10 runs or more or just 21%. Colorado was looking forward to this long homestand, as they typically swing the bats well at home. But, right now they are slumping offensively, scoring just 2 runs or fewer in four of the seven games on this homestand. The Rockies' bats are further inhibited vs. a winning team where they have played six straight to the UNDER. This one comes up shy of the total.
Braves @ Rockies
FREE Pick: Under 10
The Atlanta Braves are not the best offensive team in the league, but one thing they typically get is a well-pitched game. And the back of their bullpen is rock solid, and rarely fails to get the job done. This team typically plays games that are low scoring, and through 62 games this season they have seen just 13 of them produce 10 runs or more or just 21%. Colorado was looking forward to this long homestand, as they typically swing the bats well at home. But, right now they are slumping offensively, scoring just 2 runs or fewer in four of the seven games on this homestand. The Rockies' bats are further inhibited vs. a winning team where they have played six straight to the UNDER. This one comes up shy of the total.
NonStopSportsPicks
2* Heat - 4 (buy 1/2)
I don't think this # gets to -4, so I'm suggesting we pay the $ to buy 1/2. Too much emotion for the Heat to lose this game, and LeBron now has a vendetta. Look at what he did last game. Add to that the fact that Bosh is playing out of his goard, Wade WILL have a big game tonight, and Ray Allen ALWAYS strokes at home. Too much going for the Heat tonight & they win tonight and I am personally hoping they do so we can hop on the Spurs for the Series at +200. We're going to play sides as well as series bets. For those of you who have been with me all along, you know we just played the Heat + 200 for the series before the last game, and that we are looking for the Spurs to be down 2-1 in order to get +200 on them. This is a series that is going to be a great one, and really either team CAN win the series. So we'll just keep playing back and forth +200 series prices and then play sides in individual games.
2* Heat - 4 (buy 1/2)
I don't think this # gets to -4, so I'm suggesting we pay the $ to buy 1/2. Too much emotion for the Heat to lose this game, and LeBron now has a vendetta. Look at what he did last game. Add to that the fact that Bosh is playing out of his goard, Wade WILL have a big game tonight, and Ray Allen ALWAYS strokes at home. Too much going for the Heat tonight & they win tonight and I am personally hoping they do so we can hop on the Spurs for the Series at +200. We're going to play sides as well as series bets. For those of you who have been with me all along, you know we just played the Heat + 200 for the series before the last game, and that we are looking for the Spurs to be down 2-1 in order to get +200 on them. This is a series that is going to be a great one, and really either team CAN win the series. So we'll just keep playing back and forth +200 series prices and then play sides in individual games.
SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Cleveland @ KANSAS CITY
Cleveland -110 over KANSAS CITY
(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
The Indians are on fire and that’s never a bad time to step in. Cleveland has won three in a row and nine of 10, which was capped off by last night’s 17-7 win in Texas. Corey Kluber has turned into a top-tier pitcher. His skills vs. RH bats have been electric with 10.2 K’s/9 Dom, 1.4 BB/9 and a 50% groundball rate. It doesn’t stop there either. Kluber also owns elite skills against lefties with 10.4 K’s/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 42% groundball rate. Overall, Kluber has struck out 99 batters in 86 innings with a 3.23 ERA. What’s even more amazing is that he has an unlucky 35% hit rate and once that comes down, his ERA will be closer to his xERA of 2.92. Kluber is the straight goods pitching for a very hot team.
Jason Vargas’ consistency grade and xERA show his steadiness. Sure, some things are up (overall command) and some are down (dominant start%, notably), but it all comes out in the wash. Vargas lost time last year to a blood clot but otherwise he's good for 200 fair-to-middling, blandly consumed innings pitched. This year he owns a 3.23 ERA and 1.25 WHIP after 85 innings but that ERA is a complete mirage due to his unsustainable 84% strand rate. Vargas’ has a weak groundball/fly-ball split of 40%/40% and over his last five starts his WHIP is 1.42. There’s a correction coming in his ERA and the Indians are the right team to correct it.
San Diego vs PHILADELPHIA
San Diego -101 over PHILADELPHIA
(Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)
Philadelphia has one win in its last nine games and they’ve lost four of the past six times that A.J. Burnett has started. You may recall that Burnett was on the verge of retiring before this season but the Phillies gave him 14 million reasons not to. Psychologically, Burnett may have already retired. He’s surrendered 26 hits and 19 earned runs in his last three starts covering 20 innings. Over his last five starts he has a BB/K split of 20/28 in 30 innings, which has led to a WHIP of 1.87. His four-seam fastball velocity has dipped to 91 mph and his swing and miss % has declined from 11% to 7%. The problem has been his knuckle-curve. It's a pitch that generated a high near-20% swing and miss rate in each of the last three seasons but this year that pitch has dipped to 11%. Burnett’s xERA is 6.16 over his last three starts and he’s allowed three runs or more in six straight.
Ian Kennedy is such a better option than Burnett. Kennedy has thrown a **pure quality start in each of his last four starts. Three of those four have come at Petco Park but he is succeeding even more on the road this season. In five road starts, he is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Kennedy is enjoying a huge resurgence, both on the surface (3.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) and beneath it (3.10 xERA) and he hasn't been feasting just on RH bats. His skills actually have been better against LH bats with outstanding control, 11.8K’s/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 42% groundball rate. Kennedy figures to thrive against a Phillies team that struggles to hit right-handed pitching, as they have a .233 BA and .655 OPS versus them. At a cheap price, we get the much better pitcher, the better bullpen and the team in better form.
**We mention “pure quality start” often so here is a refresher course on our theory:
The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation. In pure quality start, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria:
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he does not get a pure quality start, he gets a 0 score no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
The nice thing about pure quality start is it allows us to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the pure quality start scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
In other words, if a pitcher goes 7 innings and allows 7 runs on seven hits, strikes out eight, walks none and gives up one jack, that’s a PURE QUALITY START or a PQS score of 4 out of 5.
This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by what the rest of the team does.
Minnesota @ TORONTO
TORONTO -1½ +121 over Minnesota
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)
We keep fading Kevin Correia and we keep getting paid off so we’re not about to put the brakes on that just yet. Correia has a job for one reason and one reason only; he’s being paid a ridiculous 5.5M this season and the Twinkies will let him rot out there at that hefty price rather than demote him to the pen. What chance does Correia have at this park against the Blue Jays? It could get ugly. Correia has a mere 37 K’s in 66.1 innings. Because he rarely misses a bat, he’s allowed an incredible 89 hits in those 66.1 innings for a BAA of .321. Incidentally, Jose Bautista is 6 for 9 lifetime (.669) v Correia with two jacks, Jose Reyes is 10 for 28 (.357), Brett Lawrie is 3 for 3 and Edwin Encarnacion is 6-24 with 2 jacks. Correia’s low 4% swing and miss rate combined with his fly-ball rate of 41% makes him batting practice out there.
J.A. Happ has been criticized at every level at every place he’s ever played. He’s the Rodney Dangerfield of starting pitchers but what he does do is win games. In seven games started, Happ is 5-2. He’s struck out 29 batters over his past 34 innings and he has a very good history against current Twins’ batters (oppBA of .229) albeit in a small sample size (35 career AB’s). Happ’s dominant start/disaster start splits nicely summarize the feast-or-famine nature of his performances but this one really isn’t about backing Happ as much as it is in fading Correia. Jays should score six or more for fun and if the Twinkies keep pace, good luck to them.
MLB
Cleveland @ KANSAS CITY
Cleveland -110 over KANSAS CITY
(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
The Indians are on fire and that’s never a bad time to step in. Cleveland has won three in a row and nine of 10, which was capped off by last night’s 17-7 win in Texas. Corey Kluber has turned into a top-tier pitcher. His skills vs. RH bats have been electric with 10.2 K’s/9 Dom, 1.4 BB/9 and a 50% groundball rate. It doesn’t stop there either. Kluber also owns elite skills against lefties with 10.4 K’s/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 42% groundball rate. Overall, Kluber has struck out 99 batters in 86 innings with a 3.23 ERA. What’s even more amazing is that he has an unlucky 35% hit rate and once that comes down, his ERA will be closer to his xERA of 2.92. Kluber is the straight goods pitching for a very hot team.
Jason Vargas’ consistency grade and xERA show his steadiness. Sure, some things are up (overall command) and some are down (dominant start%, notably), but it all comes out in the wash. Vargas lost time last year to a blood clot but otherwise he's good for 200 fair-to-middling, blandly consumed innings pitched. This year he owns a 3.23 ERA and 1.25 WHIP after 85 innings but that ERA is a complete mirage due to his unsustainable 84% strand rate. Vargas’ has a weak groundball/fly-ball split of 40%/40% and over his last five starts his WHIP is 1.42. There’s a correction coming in his ERA and the Indians are the right team to correct it.
San Diego vs PHILADELPHIA
San Diego -101 over PHILADELPHIA
(Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)
Philadelphia has one win in its last nine games and they’ve lost four of the past six times that A.J. Burnett has started. You may recall that Burnett was on the verge of retiring before this season but the Phillies gave him 14 million reasons not to. Psychologically, Burnett may have already retired. He’s surrendered 26 hits and 19 earned runs in his last three starts covering 20 innings. Over his last five starts he has a BB/K split of 20/28 in 30 innings, which has led to a WHIP of 1.87. His four-seam fastball velocity has dipped to 91 mph and his swing and miss % has declined from 11% to 7%. The problem has been his knuckle-curve. It's a pitch that generated a high near-20% swing and miss rate in each of the last three seasons but this year that pitch has dipped to 11%. Burnett’s xERA is 6.16 over his last three starts and he’s allowed three runs or more in six straight.
Ian Kennedy is such a better option than Burnett. Kennedy has thrown a **pure quality start in each of his last four starts. Three of those four have come at Petco Park but he is succeeding even more on the road this season. In five road starts, he is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Kennedy is enjoying a huge resurgence, both on the surface (3.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) and beneath it (3.10 xERA) and he hasn't been feasting just on RH bats. His skills actually have been better against LH bats with outstanding control, 11.8K’s/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 42% groundball rate. Kennedy figures to thrive against a Phillies team that struggles to hit right-handed pitching, as they have a .233 BA and .655 OPS versus them. At a cheap price, we get the much better pitcher, the better bullpen and the team in better form.
**We mention “pure quality start” often so here is a refresher course on our theory:
The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation. In pure quality start, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria:
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he does not get a pure quality start, he gets a 0 score no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
The nice thing about pure quality start is it allows us to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the pure quality start scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
In other words, if a pitcher goes 7 innings and allows 7 runs on seven hits, strikes out eight, walks none and gives up one jack, that’s a PURE QUALITY START or a PQS score of 4 out of 5.
This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by what the rest of the team does.
Minnesota @ TORONTO
TORONTO -1½ +121 over Minnesota
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)
We keep fading Kevin Correia and we keep getting paid off so we’re not about to put the brakes on that just yet. Correia has a job for one reason and one reason only; he’s being paid a ridiculous 5.5M this season and the Twinkies will let him rot out there at that hefty price rather than demote him to the pen. What chance does Correia have at this park against the Blue Jays? It could get ugly. Correia has a mere 37 K’s in 66.1 innings. Because he rarely misses a bat, he’s allowed an incredible 89 hits in those 66.1 innings for a BAA of .321. Incidentally, Jose Bautista is 6 for 9 lifetime (.669) v Correia with two jacks, Jose Reyes is 10 for 28 (.357), Brett Lawrie is 3 for 3 and Edwin Encarnacion is 6-24 with 2 jacks. Correia’s low 4% swing and miss rate combined with his fly-ball rate of 41% makes him batting practice out there.
J.A. Happ has been criticized at every level at every place he’s ever played. He’s the Rodney Dangerfield of starting pitchers but what he does do is win games. In seven games started, Happ is 5-2. He’s struck out 29 batters over his past 34 innings and he has a very good history against current Twins’ batters (oppBA of .229) albeit in a small sample size (35 career AB’s). Happ’s dominant start/disaster start splits nicely summarize the feast-or-famine nature of his performances but this one really isn’t about backing Happ as much as it is in fading Correia. Jays should score six or more for fun and if the Twinkies keep pace, good luck to them.
This must be your first time to be here. They are usually always posted prior to game start times. Some times the capper releases the play just minutes prior to start, so the forum member doesn't get a chance to post until maybe a minute or two after start, or even later. Even that is helpful for record keeping of a particular capper who says he/she released "x team" of a game, but publicly says they released "y team" to make their record look better. Great forum, I love it and contribute when the subscription I have releases plays, when I personally can post it.
