MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews
LAS VEGAS -- Madison Bumgarner and Adam Wainwright each go for an NL-leading ninth win on the season tonight and both are listed at prices that fall within our required -140 criteria. Bumgarner's Giants are -130 favorites at home tonight against the scrappy Nationals, while Wainwright and the Cardinals are -138 at the floundering Rays.
It's an even year, so it should be no surprise that the Giants (42-22) have the best record in baseball. They won the World Series in 2010 and 2012 and used the ensuing season to get over their championship hangover. Their model of success has been the same in each of those World Series years and in 2014: great pitching, clutch hitting and chemistry. They do it better than anyone.
The Giants are currently on a 13-4 run and have gone 9-4 in Bumgarner's starts, netting bettors +4.5 units of profit. Bumgarner is currently on a run of winning six-consecutive decisions, which is the longest such streak in the majors. He has a 0.82 ERA with 25 strikeouts and one walk over 22 innings during his last three starts. In his last three turns against the Nationals, he's gone 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA.
Bumgarner will be matched up against Doug Fister, who has been everything the Nationals had hoped for when bringing him over from Detroit. The Nationals had to wait until May to get him into their rotation because of an injured lat, and after a shaky debut on May 9, he's been lights out with Washington, winning all five of his starts. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of those games.
The entire Nationals pitching staff has been tremendous during their current 8-2 run, sporting a 1.37 ERA. That makes the total staying UNDER 6.5 attractive tonight.
The last time these two pitchers hooked up against each other was Game 2 of the 2012 World Series, where Bumgarner pulled out a 2-0 win. That's kind of the same score we envision tonight.
Down in Tampa Bay, the Rays are going through some rough times. They're currently riding a three-game losing streak and have lost 13 of their last 14. They've been shut out four times in their last nine games, including their last two, and with the way Wainwright has pitched lately, they could be in store for another goose egg offensively. It would be the first time in club history they've been shutout three straight games.
The Cardinals have gone 10-3 behind Wainwright this season, resulting in a +5.3 unit profit for bettors riding him in every game. In 10 of his starts, he's allowed two runs or fewer. For run-line bettors, he's covered the number in eight of the Cardinals 10 wins behind him.
The Cardinals aren't close to being as good offensively as they were last season, but they sure come alive for their ace. St. Louis averages only 3.8 runs scored per game, which is right there with baseball's worst like Tampa Bay (3.6), Cincinnati (3.5) and San Diego (3.1). However, in Wainwright's wins, they have given him 5.3 runs of support.
Trying to stop the Rays' bleeding will be right-hander Jake Odorizzi, who is 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA over his last four starts.
Tuesday selections:
Giants (Bumgarner) -130 vs. Nationals
Giants/Nationals UNDER 6.5 (-110)
Cardinals (Wainwright) -138 at Rays
Padres (Kennedy) -102 at Phillies
Marlins/Rangers OVER 9 (-115)
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews
LAS VEGAS -- Madison Bumgarner and Adam Wainwright each go for an NL-leading ninth win on the season tonight and both are listed at prices that fall within our required -140 criteria. Bumgarner's Giants are -130 favorites at home tonight against the scrappy Nationals, while Wainwright and the Cardinals are -138 at the floundering Rays.
It's an even year, so it should be no surprise that the Giants (42-22) have the best record in baseball. They won the World Series in 2010 and 2012 and used the ensuing season to get over their championship hangover. Their model of success has been the same in each of those World Series years and in 2014: great pitching, clutch hitting and chemistry. They do it better than anyone.
The Giants are currently on a 13-4 run and have gone 9-4 in Bumgarner's starts, netting bettors +4.5 units of profit. Bumgarner is currently on a run of winning six-consecutive decisions, which is the longest such streak in the majors. He has a 0.82 ERA with 25 strikeouts and one walk over 22 innings during his last three starts. In his last three turns against the Nationals, he's gone 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA.
Bumgarner will be matched up against Doug Fister, who has been everything the Nationals had hoped for when bringing him over from Detroit. The Nationals had to wait until May to get him into their rotation because of an injured lat, and after a shaky debut on May 9, he's been lights out with Washington, winning all five of his starts. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of those games.
The entire Nationals pitching staff has been tremendous during their current 8-2 run, sporting a 1.37 ERA. That makes the total staying UNDER 6.5 attractive tonight.
The last time these two pitchers hooked up against each other was Game 2 of the 2012 World Series, where Bumgarner pulled out a 2-0 win. That's kind of the same score we envision tonight.
Down in Tampa Bay, the Rays are going through some rough times. They're currently riding a three-game losing streak and have lost 13 of their last 14. They've been shut out four times in their last nine games, including their last two, and with the way Wainwright has pitched lately, they could be in store for another goose egg offensively. It would be the first time in club history they've been shutout three straight games.
The Cardinals have gone 10-3 behind Wainwright this season, resulting in a +5.3 unit profit for bettors riding him in every game. In 10 of his starts, he's allowed two runs or fewer. For run-line bettors, he's covered the number in eight of the Cardinals 10 wins behind him.
The Cardinals aren't close to being as good offensively as they were last season, but they sure come alive for their ace. St. Louis averages only 3.8 runs scored per game, which is right there with baseball's worst like Tampa Bay (3.6), Cincinnati (3.5) and San Diego (3.1). However, in Wainwright's wins, they have given him 5.3 runs of support.
Trying to stop the Rays' bleeding will be right-hander Jake Odorizzi, who is 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA over his last four starts.
Tuesday selections:
Giants (Bumgarner) -130 vs. Nationals
Giants/Nationals UNDER 6.5 (-110)
Cardinals (Wainwright) -138 at Rays
Padres (Kennedy) -102 at Phillies
Marlins/Rangers OVER 9 (-115)
Tuesday’s MLB betting cheat sheet: Verlander a strong ‘Over’ play
Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for Tuesday’s major league games:
Coors Field Cold Streak
The Colorado Rockies dropped a 3-1 decision to visiting Atlanta (-125) on Monday night, dropping to 1-6 on their homestand while losing for the 14th time in 17 games overall. Coors Field has seen a major dip in offense of late, sporting a 2-7 O/U mark in the last nine games.
Upset Special
The Seattle Mariners (+187) continued racking up the value, stunning David Price and the Tampa Bay Rays 3-0 in afternoon action at Tropicana Field. The Mariners are 8-1 in their last nine, with six of those wins coming as an underdog; the Mariners are +664 units for the season.
O-Verlander
Detroit ace Justin Verlander has been one of the league’s strongest Over plays entering Tuesday’s start against the host Chicago White Sox (+121, 8). Verlander is riding a streak of five consecutive Overs and is 9-3 O/U for the season – including a 5-1 mark away from Comerica Park.
Pitching Notes
* Braves left-hander Mike Minor has allowed just five earned runs over his last 20 1/3 innings – and has nothing to show for it but an 0-3 mark against the moneyline and an 0-3 O/U record in that span. Minor will look to reverse course Tuesday against the host Rockies (+115, 10).
* St. Louis right-hander Adam Wainwright has been nearly unstoppable on five days’ rest, going 17-4 against the moneyline in his previous 21 starts under those circumstances. A rested Wainwright is a decent favorite Tuesday against host Tampa Bay (+126, 7).
Hitting Notes
* Miami outfielder Giancarlo Stanton is 1-for-13 with seven strikeouts over his last three games. The Marlins are 9-8 S/U and 9-7-1 O/U in games where Stanton strikes out more than once entering Tuesday’s interleague showdown with host Texas (-121, 9.5).
* Cleveland shortstop Jason Kipnis is batting .333 during a seven-game hitting streak, with the Indians going 6-1 S/U and 4-3 O/U over that stretch. Kipnis and the Indians (-102) open a two-game set in Kansas City on Tuesday.
Totals Streak
Toronto Blue Jays (2-6 O/U): One of the league’s most high-powered offenses has cooled of late, scoring just three runs in a three-game set against St. Louis and doing just enough to slip past Minnesota on Monday. Toronto is 34-29-2 O/U entering Tuesday’s game with the Twins (+154, 9.5).
Prop of the Day
The Chicago White Sox could be a strong play at +165 to be the last team to score a run in their showdown with visiting Detroit. The Tigers have been the worst team in the majors in the ninth inning, allowing 46 runs over 51 2/3 frames – easily the most in the majors.
Injury Notes
* Colorado Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer will miss the next 6-8 weeks with a fractured glenoid socket in his left shoulder. Cuddyer has already missed 27 games this season; the Rockies are 17-12 SU, 16-11-2 O/U and +505 units in his absence.
* The Los Angeles Angels have placed starter Tyler Skaggs on the 15-day disabled list with an injured right hamstring. The young left-hander is 0-3 over his last three starts and is one of the league’s strongest Over plays to date at 9-3 O/U.
Weather Watch
* Wind at Angel Stadium of Anaheim will blow out to center field at 7 mph for Tuesday’s game between the host Angels (-109, 8.5) and the Athletics. Teams averaged 8.81 runs and 1.71 homers in 49 games under similar conditions in 2013 – totals that actually shade below the stadium averages.
Umpire Note of the Day
Over is 11-1 in umpire Sean Barber’s last 12 games behind home plate. Barber will call the balls and strikes at the Rogers Centre when the Blue Jays entertain the Twins.
** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 9:10 a.m. ET Tuesday.
Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for Tuesday’s major league games:
Coors Field Cold Streak
The Colorado Rockies dropped a 3-1 decision to visiting Atlanta (-125) on Monday night, dropping to 1-6 on their homestand while losing for the 14th time in 17 games overall. Coors Field has seen a major dip in offense of late, sporting a 2-7 O/U mark in the last nine games.
Upset Special
The Seattle Mariners (+187) continued racking up the value, stunning David Price and the Tampa Bay Rays 3-0 in afternoon action at Tropicana Field. The Mariners are 8-1 in their last nine, with six of those wins coming as an underdog; the Mariners are +664 units for the season.
O-Verlander
Detroit ace Justin Verlander has been one of the league’s strongest Over plays entering Tuesday’s start against the host Chicago White Sox (+121, 8). Verlander is riding a streak of five consecutive Overs and is 9-3 O/U for the season – including a 5-1 mark away from Comerica Park.
Pitching Notes
* Braves left-hander Mike Minor has allowed just five earned runs over his last 20 1/3 innings – and has nothing to show for it but an 0-3 mark against the moneyline and an 0-3 O/U record in that span. Minor will look to reverse course Tuesday against the host Rockies (+115, 10).
* St. Louis right-hander Adam Wainwright has been nearly unstoppable on five days’ rest, going 17-4 against the moneyline in his previous 21 starts under those circumstances. A rested Wainwright is a decent favorite Tuesday against host Tampa Bay (+126, 7).
Hitting Notes
* Miami outfielder Giancarlo Stanton is 1-for-13 with seven strikeouts over his last three games. The Marlins are 9-8 S/U and 9-7-1 O/U in games where Stanton strikes out more than once entering Tuesday’s interleague showdown with host Texas (-121, 9.5).
* Cleveland shortstop Jason Kipnis is batting .333 during a seven-game hitting streak, with the Indians going 6-1 S/U and 4-3 O/U over that stretch. Kipnis and the Indians (-102) open a two-game set in Kansas City on Tuesday.
Totals Streak
Toronto Blue Jays (2-6 O/U): One of the league’s most high-powered offenses has cooled of late, scoring just three runs in a three-game set against St. Louis and doing just enough to slip past Minnesota on Monday. Toronto is 34-29-2 O/U entering Tuesday’s game with the Twins (+154, 9.5).
Prop of the Day
The Chicago White Sox could be a strong play at +165 to be the last team to score a run in their showdown with visiting Detroit. The Tigers have been the worst team in the majors in the ninth inning, allowing 46 runs over 51 2/3 frames – easily the most in the majors.
Injury Notes
* Colorado Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer will miss the next 6-8 weeks with a fractured glenoid socket in his left shoulder. Cuddyer has already missed 27 games this season; the Rockies are 17-12 SU, 16-11-2 O/U and +505 units in his absence.
* The Los Angeles Angels have placed starter Tyler Skaggs on the 15-day disabled list with an injured right hamstring. The young left-hander is 0-3 over his last three starts and is one of the league’s strongest Over plays to date at 9-3 O/U.
Weather Watch
* Wind at Angel Stadium of Anaheim will blow out to center field at 7 mph for Tuesday’s game between the host Angels (-109, 8.5) and the Athletics. Teams averaged 8.81 runs and 1.71 homers in 49 games under similar conditions in 2013 – totals that actually shade below the stadium averages.
Umpire Note of the Day
Over is 11-1 in umpire Sean Barber’s last 12 games behind home plate. Barber will call the balls and strikes at the Rogers Centre when the Blue Jays entertain the Twins.
** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 9:10 a.m. ET Tuesday.
JOE GAVAZZI
Minnesota Twins (Correia) at Toronto Blue Jays (Happ) (-1 ½ runs +120) 7:05 ET
5* Toronto Blue Jays (Happ) (-1 ½ runs +120)
We lost this matchup in the 9th inning by a ½ run last night. But we are back on it again as the Jays continue on a 22-6 run including 10-2 in this series at this site. The Twins, as projected, are on a 6-12 slide. Correia isn’t the answer. The Twins are 3-9 in Correia starts. He has a 6.11 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .321 BAA and .854 OPS. In his last 6 starts, Correia is 1-4 with a .343 BAA. 4 starts against Toronto have resulted in a 6.48 ERA. Toronto has won 5/7 half starts including 4-1 recently where he has worked 32 innings allowing just 14 runs. Run lie players take note: 24/33 Minnesota Ls have come by 2 or more runs while 33/39 Toronto Ws have come by 2 or more runs including 16/20 on this field.
Seattle is presently -137 faves with a total of 7.
Minnesota Twins (Correia) at Toronto Blue Jays (Happ) (-1 ½ runs +120) 7:05 ET
5* Toronto Blue Jays (Happ) (-1 ½ runs +120)
We lost this matchup in the 9th inning by a ½ run last night. But we are back on it again as the Jays continue on a 22-6 run including 10-2 in this series at this site. The Twins, as projected, are on a 6-12 slide. Correia isn’t the answer. The Twins are 3-9 in Correia starts. He has a 6.11 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .321 BAA and .854 OPS. In his last 6 starts, Correia is 1-4 with a .343 BAA. 4 starts against Toronto have resulted in a 6.48 ERA. Toronto has won 5/7 half starts including 4-1 recently where he has worked 32 innings allowing just 14 runs. Run lie players take note: 24/33 Minnesota Ls have come by 2 or more runs while 33/39 Toronto Ws have come by 2 or more runs including 16/20 on this field.
Seattle is presently -137 faves with a total of 7.
BOB BALFE
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -130
(Bumgarner/Fister)
I don’t think there is a pitcher as hot right now as Bumgarner. This guy is a strike out machine. Washington has not had too much work against left handers this year however they have hit lefties pretty well when they have faced them. The problem tonight is none have been as solid as the pitcher they will face tonight. I like the Giants at home. Take San Francisco.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -130
(Bumgarner/Fister)
I don’t think there is a pitcher as hot right now as Bumgarner. This guy is a strike out machine. Washington has not had too much work against left handers this year however they have hit lefties pretty well when they have faced them. The problem tonight is none have been as solid as the pitcher they will face tonight. I like the Giants at home. Take San Francisco.
HARRY BONDI Bonus Play
MLB
WASHINGTON (+125) over San Francisco
10:15 p.m. ET
The Nats are heating up, winning eight of their last 10, SF starter Madison Bumgarner has been outstanding in his last three starts, but Washington averages 4.8 runs per game against lefties and, despite a “hot” May, the left-hander has posted a 4.94 ERA at home this season. Last month, we wrote right here on the free pick page that we thought Doug Fister would have a profitable season for the Nats and he has produced, posting a 3-0 record with an ERA under 1.00 in his last three starts and overall Washington has won nine of his 13 starts (+4.8 units). Take the dog.
MLB
WASHINGTON (+125) over San Francisco
10:15 p.m. ET
The Nats are heating up, winning eight of their last 10, SF starter Madison Bumgarner has been outstanding in his last three starts, but Washington averages 4.8 runs per game against lefties and, despite a “hot” May, the left-hander has posted a 4.94 ERA at home this season. Last month, we wrote right here on the free pick page that we thought Doug Fister would have a profitable season for the Nats and he has produced, posting a 3-0 record with an ERA under 1.00 in his last three starts and overall Washington has won nine of his 13 starts (+4.8 units). Take the dog.
