Handicapper: John Ryan Sports
Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers - Tuesday May 11, 2010 7:05 pm
Pick: 5 unit(s) TOTAL: Under 10 (-110) (Play of the Day)
10* graded play Under Detroit/NY Yankees set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that fewer than `10 runs will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 48-18 for 73% winners since 2004. Play under with AL home teams against the total with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse and is working on 5 or 6 days of rest. So many times in baseball we see a starter follow up a poor performance with an absolute gem. In this case we have two such starters sporting horrid ERA’s Vazquez is 1-3 in 5 starts sporting a 9.7 ERA and a 2.043 WHIP for the Yankees. Porcello is 2-3 in 6 starts sporting a 7.50 ERA and a 1.867 WHIP. Now, what our model is projecting is a game where both starters pitch better than their career averages. The fact that we have TWO starters projected to exceed their norms offers up a strong UNDER play. Both teams have stellar bullpens as well with the Yankees posting a 2.87 ERA and 1.277 WHIP in road games spanning 47 innings. Detroit’s bullpen is even better sporting a 2.44 ERA in home games spanning 48 innings pitched. Interesting to note here is that Yankee skipper Girardi is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) versus a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start in all games he has managed since 1997; 25-9 UNDER (+14.5 Units) in road games versus a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better. Yankees are also in a game situation showing them posting a 47-26 UNDER (+16.8 Units) with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. Again, a situation that is above the norm and bound to revert back to the norm or as our model projects, below the norm. Take the UNDER.