VR`s Morning Moves - Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Report Status: TUESDAY FEB 16th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on WED 2-17-10
Notes: “MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for TUESDAY FEB 16th, 2010
MONEY MANAGEMENT : PART III = “ADJUSTING UNIT SIZE”
Good Morning Gentlemen…We come into Tuesday off a “Morning Move” loser…Making us “10-4” (71% ATS) Overall…
Premium Subscribers were able to turn another nice PROFIT for the day, since we SWEPT the Daily Card which included another 3* BOMB…We are now up +4,500 ($100 Per Unit) for 2010...
So I couldn’t be happier and with so much opportunity ahead over these next 2 months, we should be able to start the MLB Season off with plenty of profit already…Those of you who have been with me for MLB know that we do some DAMAGE because the “Models/Projections” that I’ve learned to create are incredible…
But for now, my focus is on NBA & CBB…Which is just fine by me because we are killing it…So let’s move on to Part III of this Money Management concept…Because without a proper business plan, no matter how many more winners than losers I produce, you will not be able to profit…And profit is the only reason that I do this…
In Part I, we touched on the fact that I believe there are only “2” Money Management Systems that you should be looking to employ…The 1st one, “Flat Betting”…we covered in Part II…And I truly believe that it is by far the best system to use for those who are either just starting to take this seriously…And for those who have allowed themselves to make the same Money Management errors in the past…Because it takes all the gamble out of the equation…
Today, we will discuss the 2nd system…This is the one that I have evolved into using and currently put into play each day…We’ll call this “Adjusting Unit Size”…Because when you employ this system, that’s exactly what you will be doing…
Now the first thing you need to establish if you are going to put this system into play…is the different “Unit” sizes that you are going to be using for the different bets that you make…And as I explained in Part I, the way that the “Outfits” that I moved “steam” for…as well as almost all of the WINNING professional sports bettors that I know…break their unit sizes down in those increments…
My clients know that I do the same…Because my main “Unit Size” is 2*s…My Best Bets are 3*s (1.5 the size of a regular bet)…And for my very biggest wagers, I will go to 4*s (double the regular bet)…With that said, there are those RARE instances where I feel the position justifies a bit more…In which case, I will go to 5*s…But as you’ve seen, I have even used 4*s for a “GAME OF THE YEAR”…Finally, on Free Picks or on some “exotics”…I will actually go as low as 1*…But so far in 2010, we’ve had only 1...Just like with the 5*s…
So you can see that even though I break them down into “*s” (stars)…the bottom line is that I follow the exact same system that I saw the Betting Syndicates use…And they are in the business of maximizing profits, while minimizing exposure or risk…This made me confident that it’s the one I should use as well…But only after I learned discipline by “Flat Betting”…And more importantly, TRULY understood how to calculate “value”…
Being able to calculate or identify “value” is by far the most important factor to employing this system…Because you need to have a concrete reason behind the different “unit sizes”…And the reasoning had better be “value”…Or else, you are actually lowering your “edge”…
And in the world of “Laying 11 to Win 10”…losing any “edge” that you may have, will ultimately make turning a profit impossible…And that’s not my opinion…that’s just simple math…
Because if you can’t differentiate the “actual” value between bets…then there is no way to justify changing the unit size…Other than simply wanting to gamble…And I’ll continue to remind you what happens when you gamble…The house ends up with your bankroll…Because if the “edge” is on their side, then it’s a mathematical certainty that they will eventually win your money…
So until you have sound reasoning behind why it’s beneficial to adjusting your unit amount…you need to sick with “flat betting”…Because that will definitely be the safest method…
Now if you do know how to distinguish between the different levels of “Value” (We’ll discussn exactly what “value” is in a future Newsletter, if not tomorrow)…then using the “Adjusting Units” system is by far the best one to use…Because it will definitely help you maximize your profits when you locate those positions that offer you the biggest edge…while simultaneously minimizing risk, when your edge is smaller…
To do this, you need to be extremely disciplined because it becomes way too easy to fire a 3* when you know it should actually be a 2*…Especially during those times that you find yourself behind, or even nicely ahead of the books…So you really need to know what you are doing, and more importantly…have a very strong foundation and business plan that you know for sure you will be able to follow…Otherwise, this system actually becomes the quickest way to go broke…
If you are going to use this system, and for many…I think it’s a great idea…then you have to make sure that you keep the unit size close to, if not exactly the same as I touched on above…which is the one that I use…Because if you choose unit sizes that are not around those increments…then once again, you are actually lowering your edge, and making it easier for the books to end up with your money…
What I am trying to say is that you CAN’T go from having a 1* bet as your regular, to a 10* as your Best Bet…I use 2* as my Regular so that I only increase it “1.5” for my Best Bets (3*s)…Because if I used 1* as my Regular and 2*s as my Best Bet…I would then be wagering Double…Something that I don’t want to do, except on those very rare occasions where it’s justified…
Let’s get back to why you should never use a system where your unit size differs so drastically…
For starters, unless you are in on a “fix” and are assured of the outcome, there is absolutely nothing that can justify you wagering 10X’s more on one bet than another…Because when you do, those “small” bets actually become meaningless…And the truth is, you really shouldn’t even be placing them because they will have almost no influence on your bankroll…The only bets that will even matter are the 10 Unit Bets…So why even bother with the others…
Now I’m not saying that you shouldn’t make 10 Unit Bets…Because you can start with that increment, then make your Best Bets 15 Units and so on…In the end, it’s the exact same thing that I do…except it would be at a different level…And if your bankroll supports it, and that’s how you wish to break down your wagers…then go ahead and do so…There really isn’t any difference…I just use the lower increments because I want it to be better understood by my clients, and I don’t feel the need to market 100* Plays…
In closing…this system should only be used by the more experienced sports bettors…And the more disciplined as well…Finally, to use this system, you have to have a sound understanding of what “Value” actually is…And more importantly, have the ability to differentiate the amount of value a particular bet is offering, compared to another bet…Remember, because it’s almost impossible to truly calculate value in this market, what we do instead is “perceive” value…And it’s that perception which ultimately creates price in our market…And it’s those inefficiencies that ultimately make it beatable…
Thanks again for your continued support fellas, and best of luck…Vegas-Runner
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) OVER 221 PHO/MEM
This is an interesting Total, which is why I chose it…Initially, it appeared that the Betting Syndicates saw some Value in the UNDER…Because we saw it actually dip a ½ point downwards at sharp books like “The Greek”…From an Opener of 221.5, to 221...This is where it’s at across the board this morning…But after speaking with a handful of sources who actually move “steam” for these Outfits…it appears the Wiseguys believe that the market, will force an adjustment the OTHER way…And when I looked at the match-up and saw that their L/4 meetings have gone well OVER the posted Total…I would have to agree with them, and say that the Betting Public will almost definitely back the Over in this game…So the Wiseguys seem to have decided to take a step back, and allow the market to be influenced more and be forced to adjust upwards…ultimately giving them an even betting number to go UNDER, if they choose to execute that earlier “Buy-Order”…Fortunately, we have plenty of bookmaker sources, as well as a wealth of friends who still move “steam”…So we don’t have to guess what is actually happening, instead we can be sure…Don’t be surprised if the Outfits try to manipulate the market themselves to give it a boost, and place an Over Bet themselves…Because in the end, if they come back on the other side…they just may end up catching a “middle” as well…This is just an example of the many things that happen between the Wiseguys and the Bookmakers…before the betting public even begins to look at the day’s match-ups…VR
We are looking at an INFLATED Total...and the Wiseguys already went ahead and let the Books know it when they took a Position on the Under in this one...The books won't mind because they will definitely end up with Balance when the public starts betting this match-up...This is the main reason that we are getting a "Fair Line" to bet into...rather than a "True Line" which would have shut us out of any "True Value"...
Bottom Line...According to my TRUE LINE...we are getting the best of it for sure...Espeically when my Numbers show this Total should be much closer to 192, than 195...VR
