Mike Hook | CBB Sides Tue, 02/16/10 - 8:00 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 548 TCU 5.0 (-110)
BetUS vs 547 San Diego St.
Analysis: We are ABSOLUTELY backing TCU tonight, as they will likely beat San Diego St. OUTRIGHT tonight. I'll be perfectly honest, i knew this was going to be the paid play today the moment SDSU beat Unlv over the weekend. As a die hard Aztec fan, i know how bad the Aztecs struggle when playing at TCU. It just seems to be one of those "spots" this team traditionally struggles in. The fact that this line opened at the infamous -5.5 road favorite line was simply icing o n the cake for us. Despite those 2 huge scenarios in our favor, i still wanted to make sure we were making the absolute best wager we could be making before finalizing this play.
TCU has been mostly an underachieving team this season. They played a pretty tough non conference schedule and have been rather hit and miss. At home, however, this team has played fairly good basketball until recently. This TCU team has been in a number of close games at home, failing down the stretch and losing in many of them. Again, they've been in nearly every home game except for their 2 most recent games. They lost by double digits to both Utah and Hew Mexico. Clearly this team is going to want to play like they did the majority of the season, and i believe they will do just that tonight. TCU had a big conference road win in their last game at Wyoming. That win might not seem like much, but Wyoming at home on Saturday's is a tough place to win. Any confidence at all late in the game for TCU is huge, as they just needed to get over the hump. They will be ready tonight, and i'll explain why in just a bit.
SDSU had a great home win on Saturday afternoon against UNLV. They dominated that game, and won by 10 points. SDSU has played some tough games of late, notably their last game out east in New Mexico. They lost in OT in that game, showing tons of heart. My point is simple: This is the 4th game in 11 days for SDSU, including two "longer" road trips for them. This SDSU team is pretty good, but i've only seen 1 true road game that they dominated and won handily in. I've talked at length about how this SDSU team typically plays teams close, as they simply don't shoot well enough to run away from anybody. Of their 12 road games this season, they have won 6 of them SU. Of those 6, only 1 win came where they won easily. The rest of them was a battle down to the bitter end.
I think that TCU wins this game outright. TCU has won 2 of their past 3 games, and as already mentioned, any positive vibes this team can have will be useful. Tonight they play a team much like themselves. SDSU struggles to close out games on the road, just like TCU struggles to win games in the final moments. I think TCU will be the fresher team tonight, as they haven't had the travel schedule of late that SDSU has. TCU also has some revenge tonight, as they lost 62-67 on January 16th to the Aztecs. I remember that game vividly, as TCU was up by 14 during that game. TCU shot the ball great in that game, but i also noted that TCU actually matches up quite well with SDSU. TCU hit half of their 3 pointers, which of course isn't likely tonight. But let's not forget that SDSU also attempted 25 free throws while TCU attempted 6. That was the ballgame, as SDSU kept getting to the line. Again, watching this game with my own eyes i liked how TCU matched up with SDSU. SDSU went on to win this game by 5 points, but didn't come close to covering the -13 number they were up against. TCU was the better team in that game, they just couldn't finish the deal.
To be perfectly honest, TCU is going to be the hungrier team tonight. They know they can play with this SDSU eam. TCU only has a few home games left his season, so you know they would like a season defining win. I realize TCU has horrible trends against them tonight, but that only tells half the story. Anyone that's followed the Mountain West Conference knows that TCU has been knocking at the doorstep for quite some time. For 35 minutes, this team can play with anyone in the Mountain West, especially at home. SDSU always leaves opponents close, as they are one of the worst shooting teams both from the field but also the 3 point line in the country. This is a very dangerous game for SDSU tonight. Anyone that also follows SDSU knows how much th Aztecs struggle in TCU. Lastly, anyone that follows me personally knows how much i love the home opening line of +5.5.
There are very strong indications that TCU plays this game very closely, and likely wins OUTRIGHT. TCU simply needs to hustle tonight, getting their rebounds and fighting for the loose ball. If they do that, they will win this game. They have a sense of urgency tonight, yet the confidence of a team that's won 2 of their past 3 games. They also have the confidence from leading SDSU for much of their last contest in San Diego. TCU has the talent to win this game OUTRIGHT, and i believe they will do just that tonight. Behind a revenge angle and the toughest opening line in college basketball in their favor, i'm backing TCU +5 as my DOUBLE STAR play of the day.
