BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT
I'm playing on Boise State and TCU to finish UNDER the total. Yes, both offenses are more than capable. However, both defenses are also excellent. The Horned Frogs finished second in the entire nation in both total yards allowed (215.1) and points (10.9). Only USC was better. A closer look shows that the Horned Frogs held 11 of their 12 opponents to 14 points or less and that Oklahoma, the highest scoring team in the country, was the only team which topped that mark. While not quite in TCU's class, Boise State is also much better defensively than most people believe. The Broncos held 10 of their 12 opponents to 16 points or less. Eight of those teams finished with 10 or less and six of them finished with seven or less. Overall, the Broncos allowed an average of only 294.5 total yards and a mere 12.2 points. The Horned Frogs are currently laying three points at most shops. That's worth noting as we find the UNDER at 4-1 the last five times that TCU played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3. During the same stretch, Boise State saw the UNDER go a perfect 4-0 when playing a game with a line in that range. Look for this evening's game to also prove much lower-scoring than expected with the final combined score staying below the generous number. *Main Event
BEN BURNS
I'm laying the points with PORTLAND. These teams met last night at Denver with the Nuggets earning the win and cover. Playing with immediate revenge and returning home, I expect the Blazers to bounce back with a convincing win and cover this evening. The Blazers have been excellent at home this season, going 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average of 12 points per game. Playing in the revenge role, they won and covered vs. a red hot Phoenix team in their last game. In addition to having the homecourt advantage, the Blazers also have the schedule significantly in their favor. For starters, the Blazers are 10-5 SU and ATS the last 15 times that they played the second of back to back games. Conversely, Denver is 6-12 SU and 7-11 ATS its last 18 times in a back to back situation. Its more than that though. Prior to last night's game, the Blazers hadn't played since 12/18 and they had only played three games since 12/12. On the other hand, Denver, which will still be without star Carmello Anthony, played games on both 12/19 AND 12/20. That makes this the Nuggets' fourth game in the past five nights, which is as gruelling as it gets in the NBA. Note that the Nuggets are just 6-13-1 ATS (4-16 SU) the last 20 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to nine point range. Look for those numbers to get even worse, as the Blazers prove to be both the 'fresher' and the 'hungrier' team. *Blowout GOW