Service Plays Tuesday 12/23/08

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I don't like it a lot
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adam meyer

OVER 46 tcu/boise

BOL TO ALL

the rest and liebman
4* boise st(foots)
3* spurs under
3*st marys
3* stanford

Liebman (1-2 yesterday)
wisc +1.5
arizona -2.5

gl
 

Bullitt
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BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT

I'm playing on Boise State and TCU to finish UNDER the total. Yes, both offenses are more than capable. However, both defenses are also excellent. The Horned Frogs finished second in the entire nation in both total yards allowed (215.1) and points (10.9). Only USC was better. A closer look shows that the Horned Frogs held 11 of their 12 opponents to 14 points or less and that Oklahoma, the highest scoring team in the country, was the only team which topped that mark. While not quite in TCU's class, Boise State is also much better defensively than most people believe. The Broncos held 10 of their 12 opponents to 16 points or less. Eight of those teams finished with 10 or less and six of them finished with seven or less. Overall, the Broncos allowed an average of only 294.5 total yards and a mere 12.2 points. The Horned Frogs are currently laying three points at most shops. That's worth noting as we find the UNDER at 4-1 the last five times that TCU played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3. During the same stretch, Boise State saw the UNDER go a perfect 4-0 when playing a game with a line in that range. Look for this evening's game to also prove much lower-scoring than expected with the final combined score staying below the generous number. *Main Event





BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with PORTLAND. These teams met last night at Denver with the Nuggets earning the win and cover. Playing with immediate revenge and returning home, I expect the Blazers to bounce back with a convincing win and cover this evening. The Blazers have been excellent at home this season, going 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average of 12 points per game. Playing in the revenge role, they won and covered vs. a red hot Phoenix team in their last game. In addition to having the homecourt advantage, the Blazers also have the schedule significantly in their favor. For starters, the Blazers are 10-5 SU and ATS the last 15 times that they played the second of back to back games. Conversely, Denver is 6-12 SU and 7-11 ATS its last 18 times in a back to back situation. Its more than that though. Prior to last night's game, the Blazers hadn't played since 12/18 and they had only played three games since 12/12. On the other hand, Denver, which will still be without star Carmello Anthony, played games on both 12/19 AND 12/20. That makes this the Nuggets' fourth game in the past five nights, which is as gruelling as it gets in the NBA. Note that the Nuggets are just 6-13-1 ATS (4-16 SU) the last 20 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to nine point range. Look for those numbers to get even worse, as the Blazers prove to be both the 'fresher' and the 'hungrier' team. *Blowout GOW
 

Bullitt
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DOC

4-Unit Play - Totals Game of the Week - #509 Take Philadelphia/Boston UNDER ( 7:30 p.m. EST , Tuesday) You have got to love a total in the mid 190s when two of the Top 10 defensive teams in the NBA are involved. And that is what we are presented with on Tuesday night. We see this as a public line and the square bettors seem to be jumping on the over here. Just because Philadelphia is a pretty bad team doesn’t mean they can’t play good D. The Sixers have allowed only 93 PPG on defense in their last eight contests, even though they have only won half those games. This is also not a very explosive offense as they average only 91 PPG on the road. They will face a tough task tonight against a Boston defense that is No. 2 for PPG and No. 1 for defensive FG%. Three straight meetings in this series have gone under the posted total. We had this game capped in the high 180s so we think there is some very nice value here.



3 Unit Play. #546 Take Wisconsin over Texas (9:30 pm ESPN 2) For some reason the Horns just have trouble beating Big 10 teams. They lost to Michigan State and Wisconsin last year and just loss to Michigan State on Saturday. Wisconsin has won four of the five meetings and is 6-0 at home this season. The Badgers have an outstanding record at home under Bo Ryan and have played to their competition this season. They will rise up and knock off Texas and win this game straight-up.
 

Bullitt
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JOHN RYAN

Ai Simulator 7* graded play UNDER Boise State/TCU - AiS shows an 85% probability that 46 or fewer points will be scored in this game. TCU defense is quite good and they will make it very difficult for Boise to run the ball. AiS shows a 90% probability that TCU will allow 2.5 rushing yards per attempt or less in this game. Note that they are a solid 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) when they allow less than 2.5 rushing yards per attempt over the last 2 seasons.Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 26-8 for 77% since 1997. Play under with any team against the total in a bowl game and in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences. Here is a second system that has gone 343-14 ATS for 75% ATS since 1992. Play under in December games with all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 off a home win facing a conference rival. Boise is in a strong UNDER role noting they are 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) off a home win by 17 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Boise HC Peterson is a strong 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) off a home blowout win by 28 points or more. TCU has played a far tougher schedule than Boise and is one of the many reasons they are favored over an undefeated team. I see the TCU defense completely minimizing the Boise offense. Boise will have no running game to speak of adn that will be big trouble for them as TCU will use pro style blitz schemes that they have yet to face. Boise has been practicing against these schemes, but they cannot practice at the same speed and quickness that TCU possesses. As an optional consideration I also like TCU for a small play. Take the UNDER for 7*.
 

Bullitt
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Dr. Canada (he only plays NHL) - from another forum

1* Avalanche -145
2* Blues/Red Wings over 6 even
 

Bullitt
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CHARLIE

ncaaf. tcu vs boise st under 46. (500* )
ncaaf. tcu-2' 30*)
cbb. cleve st-7' (20*)
cbb. xavier-8 (20*)
nba. golden st @ miami over 217 (10*)
nba. philly14 (10*) Bonus Play
 

Bullitt
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Tuesday ATS Lock Club
5 TCU -3
4 Wisconsin +1.5
3 Kent +7

Wednesday
3 Notre Dame -1.5
No Hoops

Thursday
No Football
3 Celtics small dog

ATS Financial Package
3 Under 45.5 TCU/Boise
3 St Mary's -7.5
3 Hawaii -5

Wednesday
3 Notre Dame -1.5
No Hoops

Thursday
3 Magic small Favorite
 

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Dec 19, 2008
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Steam on-line...cbb

Steam on-line cbb play (*8000)
----------------------------------
4-3 last 7 plays
19-10 ytd cbb
off a lost sun w/ st johns


HOFSTRA -5.5 OVER IONA @ 7 ET


paid & confirmed



*they also have a total selection on boise st / tcu if anyone is looking for a ftbll play....
 

Hap

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Dr. Coglye West:

12* OTW/PHL OVER 5.5

Merry Christmas.

Hoping #13 Hits!
 

The Gr8 1
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KBHoops

NCAAF
5* TCU -3

NCAAB
5* Missouri -2.5
5* Kent State +7 -120
5* Arizona -2.5

NBA
5* Boston -13 **POD**
5* Lakers +3
 

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Rob Homyak

5 units on Boise State + points

Oddsmakers currently have the Horned Frogs listed as 3-point favorites versus the Broncos, while the game's total is sitting at 45.

Andy Dalton had a pair of touchdown passes in Week 13 to lead the Horned Frogs to a 44-10 win over Air Force.

The Horned Frogs managed to cover the 20-point spread in that contest, while the combined score went OVER the day's posted total (41.5).

Boise State exploded for 48 second half points in a 61-10 pounding of Fresno State in Week 14. Boise State covered the 22-point spread, and the 71 points sailed OVER the posted total of 58.

Ian Johnson rushed for 130 yards with two touchdowns to lead Boise State. Kellen Moore completed 17-of-23 for 217 yards with two TD's in the win.

Boise State has gone unbeaten in three of the last five regular seasons, has won ten games or more in seven of the last nine seasons, and has won 108 games in the last ten seasons. Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Boise State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
 

Bullitt
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Las Vegas Sport Picks

NBA:
1* Bulls +7
2* Pacers/Nets o207
7* Lakers +3

NHL:
1* Wild -145
1* Islanders -110
2* Blues/Wings o6 even

NCAAF:
1* TCU -3
3* TCU/Boise o45

NCAAB:
1* Cleveland St. -6
2* Missouri -3
 

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FF- 62% regular season-

Take Boise State +3.5 (5*play) buy the hook for insurance.

I recommend that you wait closer to game time to get this at 3.5 if possible. Some books are already starting to move that way with all the public money coming in on the Horned Frogs of TCU, which is a good thing for us dog backers! At my book right now the line is at +3(EVEN)looselines.com so buying the hook is regular juice at -110.

TCU is favored in this game largely part to the "strength of schedule." TCU had the 41st while Boise State had the 75th strength of schedule and everyone is raving about TCU's defense and how they held up against Oklahoma. How quick people forget that TCU only had 10 pts in that game. I do not believe strength of schedule should be taken into consideration as much as it has especially when TCU lost the games they faced solid teams.

TCU's Defense is stout and it has been tested by the best offense in Oklahoma. they have a solid rusher in Hughes off the edge that will give any team head aches. Boise State also has a stout defense and has only given up more than 16 points twice. Wouldn't it be ironic if this ended up being a high scoring game?

Two Key Players-
Jerry Hughes-DE TCU leads the nation with 14 sacks and has the athleticism to get pressure on Kellen Moore at any time.
Kyle Wilson-CB Boise State shut down corner who can make some tackles when TCU runs the ball. Also their punt returner and can have a huge impact on the game.

Where this match up really matters:
In the trenches! We know all about the defenses and how both rushing games will struggle tonight, but who will be able to do more with what they are given? Field position will be most important factor in this game. Both Defenses will be able to keep their respected teams in the game, but what one team can not do is force their defense to continually hold off the opponent in the field position battle.

The team that really seems to have an edge here is Boise State. I think Kellen Moore and the Boise State offense will have some success in the air being able to pick up a few first downs. However, TCU is going to struggle offensively running the ball. If Boise State can stop the run like I think they can then I am not worried about TCU's QB Dalton beating me in the air. Which brings me to field position and turnovers. Boise State's defense has picked of 20 passes and has allowed only 51.3% completion percentage. I would not be surprised if Dalton gives up one tonight that becomes the key to the game.

Other X-factors:
I mentioned that special teams and field position will be critical in this low scoring battle, both truly favor an underdog of 3+points. Boise State really has a solid weapon in Kyle Brotzman. Brotzman is the kicker and punter for Boise State. Boise State also leads the nation in blocking kicks the last two years with a whopping total of 15. TCU's kicker Evans missed two key kicks in a huge game against Utah proving that the pressure might be just too much for him. With Kyle Wilson averaging 14.7 yards per return and 3 punt return TDs I'll put my money on Boise State to dominate the field position giving them a win ATS.

In the end:
Boise State will have a couple of key trick plays and TCU's stout defense will be caught off guard. TCU will struggle to find points and force turnovers. In a low scoring game Boise State stays in control the entire game and wins by a field goal.

Thank you for your purchase
 
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Kelso's bowl play is TCU -3. Its a 10 unit play.

His 25 unit basketball play is Hoffstra -4
 

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Paul Leiner has 300* NBA Total on Lakers/New Orl Over 195.5

He was hot as hell and then missed 4 straight of these. Was 13-3 now 13-7 on 300* NBA totals. Do with it what you will. I will follow and report on his stats should he get hot again. GL!
 

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Brandon Lang
Tuesday winner
20-Dime TCU - (if line is 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3 ... if your line 3 you buy the 1/2 and lay 2 1/2)
 

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