JEFF BENTON
Tuesday's winners ...
15 Dime: TCU (minus the points vs. Boise State)
5 Dime: ROCKETS (plus the points vs. Cavaliers)
5 Dime: TEXAS (minus the points vs. Wisconsin)
TCU
How can a 10-2 team be favored over a 12-0 squad? Because the 10-2 team is better and has faced much stiffer competition, that’s how! TCU’s two defeats this year came against teams that are in BCS Bowl games and are a combined 24-1. That would be Utah and Oklahoma. And when you consider that no objective observer would argue that TCU absolutely should’ve won at Utah and that the Horned Frogs held Oklahoma, which scored 60-plus points in its last five games and led the nation in scoring, to a season-low 35 points, well, it’s easy to understand this selection.
Look, I’m not about to disparage Boise State – frankly, I love the Broncos and love the fact they’re always pounding on the BCS door. However, you take away a lucky 37-32 win at Oregon way back in the third week of the season – the Ducks turned the ball over multiple times in that defeat – and here’s what you’ve got: Non-conference wins over Idaho State, Bowling Green and Southern Miss, as well as WAC victories over Hawaii, San Jose State, New Mexico State, Utah State, Idaho, Nevada and Fresno State. Not exactly Murderer’s Row there!
TCU, in addition to its losses to Utah and Oklahoma, crushed BYU, Stanford, New Mexico and Air Force, and won at Colorado State. Simply put, the Horned Frogs are more battle-tested. And you just cannot ignore what TCU did on defense this year, allowing 14 points or less to every team but Oklahoma. And in retrospect, that 35-10 loss in Norman, Okla., was pretty damn impressive, as the Sooners, who averaged 54 points per game, managed just seven points in the second half and managed just 25 net rushing yards!
TCU is 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games, all under coach Gary Patterson, while Boise State lost to East Carolina in the Hawaii Bowl last season. Also, there’s no doubt that the Broncos are absolutely disappointed that they’re not playing in a BCS game, and that disappointment will show up on the field in San Diego tonight. Lay the chalk, as the Horned Frogs, who have scored more than 30 points in eight of their last 11 games, are favored for a reason.
Rockets
I’m sorry, I know that the Cavaliers are sensational and playing way above their heads. I also know that the Rockets are in the middle of a tough four-game road trip, which includes last night’s win at New Jersey. But this pointspread is ridiculous! I mean, Houston has scored 108, 107, 109 and 114 points in its last four games, and the Rockets have scored in triple digits in 11 of their last 16 games. They’ve won and covered four games in a row, and they’re 14-5 SU in their last 19 games, including 7-3 SU and ATS on the road.
Additionally, the Rockets are an impressive 41-18-1 ATS n their last 60 games against teams from the Eastern Conference, including 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Central Division. They’ve also cashed in eight of their last 10 games against the Cavaliers, going 8-2 ATS during this stretch, including winning both meetings last year by margins of 16 and 8 points – and yes, LeBron James played in both of those games for the Cavaliers. In fact, in the last four meetings – three of which Houston won – Cleveland has averaged just 77.5 ppg.
Bottom line: Houston, which entered this season as a darkhorse pick to win the stacked Western Conference, is playing its best basketball of the season right now. Because of that, I just cannot pass up these generous points – especially since the Rockets have been an underdog of more than five points just once all season. Play the underdog.
Texas
The oddsmakers are telling us something with this pointspread. I mean, both teams are 9-2 on the season, Texas has yet to play on an opponent’s home court, Wisconsin is 6-0 in its building this season, the Badgers beat the Longhorns in Austin last year … and Texas is favored tonight? Why do you think that is? Because the Longhorns are better, simple as that.
Texas has faced such quality opponents as UCLA, Notre Dame, St. Joe’s, Villanova and Michigan State, and while it lost to the Irish and Spartans, those two defeats were by a total of five points. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has played just two Top 25 teams to this point, and not only did the Badgers lose both of those games to Marquette and UConn, they scored just 57 and 58 points!
In fact, Wisconsin has managed 60 points or fewer in five of its last nine games, and that includes matchups against Coppin State (57 points), Idaho State (60 points) and Iona (60 points). Meanwhile, Texas is averaging 73.3 points per game, scoring at least 67 points in 10 of their 11 contests this season. In the end, this is a big home game for Wisconsin, but the Badgers just do not have the scoring punch to hang with the 5th-ranked team in the nation. Respect the oddsmaker’s number and lay the small price with Texas.