StatSystems Sports - CFB & NBA Report, 12/21/10
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/21
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••• 'BOTTOM FEEDERS' •••
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This matchup between California rivals is a toilet bowl game between two of the NBA’s worst teams. To fans, that means changing the channel. To bettors, though, basement battles mean value. The Kings have just five wins on the year and have dropped five straight games heading into Tuesday. Sacramento is scoring under 92 points an outing and is just 1-4 ATS during this skid. Its most recent loss was a 102-93 defeat to the Houston Rockets, a game the Kings led, 81-79, going into the fourth quarter.
The fingers are pointing at star point guard Tyreke Evans, who has run out of gas late in games this season. Evans, who won Rookie of the Year in 2009-10, is averaging under 16 points per game this month and has been slowed by a foot injury. Evans will have the daunting task of not only carrying his team offensively Tuesday, but also guarding Golden State sparkplug, Monta Ellis. Ellis is scoring 24.5 points per game this year and torched Sacramento for 39 points in his last game against the Kings on January 8, 2010.
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*** BEEF 'O' BRADY'S BOWL ***
LOUISVILLE (6-6) VS. SOUTHERN MISS (8-4)
Tropicana Field - St. Petersburg, FL
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. EDT Line: Louisville -3 O/U 57
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For the ninth straight season Southern Miss is making a postseason appearance, as the Golden Eagles will collide with the Louisville Cardinals on December 21st in the Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Golden Eagles might have racked up eight wins this season, which is clearly good enough for a bowl game, but their year began and ended the same way, with a loss. After falling to South Carolina in their opener, the Golden Eagles responded with four straight wins. The following three-game stretch saw the team drop two contests to East Carolina and UAB, and both setbacks came by a one-point margin. With the loss to the Blazers in the rearview mirror, the Golden Eagles exited the loss column, and racked up three consecutive wins. However, the regular season closed out with a 56-50 loss to Tulsa.
The Golden Eagles are no strangers to playing in bowls, having made a postseason showing in twelve of the last 13 years, including eight straight seasons. Last year Southern Mississippi fell to Middle Tennessee, 42-32, in the New Orleans Bowl. The Golden Eagles are 7-5 in bowl action during their recent stretch, but overall in the program's history, Southern Miss is just 9-11. Despite the recent run, coach Larry Fedora remains humble. "We are extremely excited about the opportunity to play in St. Petersburg in Florida," said coach Fedora. "It is a great area with great weather and we have the opportunity to play a quality opponent from the Big East. We are thrilled about being able to play another game."
The last time the Cardinals went "bowling" they defeated Wake Forest in the 2007 FedEx Orange Bowl. Louisville, which is 6-7-1 all-time in bowl games, will be making its 15 appearance in postseason play, but it will be the first for Charlie Strong as a head coach. "For us to go get a bid to play in the bowl game was really big for the program because we needed that for the confidence of this program. Anytime you change a staff, you want something good to happen. We talked about getting this program to a bowl game and then make this program better each year from there."
Strong, who came from the coaching staff of Urban Meyer at Florida, did not have an overly impressive inaugural season, but still claimed Co-Coach of the Year honors in the Big East along with Connecticut's Randy Edsall. Louisville claimed wins in four of its first seven matchups and the three losses all came by eight or less points. Sitting at 4-3 the Cardinals proceeded to suffer losses in three of their next four games, and the lone win was a slim, 28-20 decision on the road against Syracuse. Fortunately, coach Strong's squad was able to go on the road in the season-finale and properly handle Rutgers to the tune of 40-13, giving the team the six wins needed to become bowl eligible.
Ask any coach at any level of football and they will be the first to explain how having a balanced attack is the key to any successful offense. Having the ability to run and pass, keeps defenses guessing, and gives defensive coordinators fits. Coach Fedora can rest easy at night knowing his offense is very potent on the ground and through the air. Taking care of the passing attack is Austin Davis, who was selected to the All Conference-USA Second Team. Davis completed over 60 percent of his throws this season, and racked up the yardage, averaging 241.5 ypg. He has thrown for 18 touchdowns, but more importantly, the veteran gunslinger does not make many mistakes, tossing just six interceptions.
Kelvin Bolden has hauled in a team- high six touchdowns, but the main target has been Johdrick Morris. Morris, who was the First Team selection at tight end in the league, has collected a team- best 46 receptions for 663 yards. Clearly Davis is a very effective quarterback, and makes life easy for coach Fedora, but what has kept opposing teams guessing is the ground game, which has dominated the competition for 203.4 ypg. There is not one main option that Southern Miss relies on, which is another advantage for this offense, as it showcases a few different talented backs. Kendrick Hardy has been the most successful, churning out 855 yards and seven scores, while Desmond Johnson, who also has seven touchdowns, has rumbled for 509 yards.
The offense received most of the attention on the season, and rightfully so, but the Southern Miss defense has also played a vital role in the team's success. Sure, on paper this unit is surrendering 29.4 ppg, which is a terrible number, but when peering deeper into the stats, there are plenty of things that make this a dangerous entity. Opponents might be churning out 113.3 ypg on the ground against the Golden Eagles, but that is not an overwhelming amount, and when combined with the 3.6 yards per carry this front line has held opponents to, it is rather an impressive showing. A big reason for the team's success is the play of defensive linemen Anthony Gray and Cordarro Law. Both were selected to the league's Second Team, and will have their hands full against a tough Louisville ground attack.
Clearly if a team is allowing close to 30 points per matchup there are issues, and in the case of Southern Miss that comes in the defensive backfield. The Golden Eagles has been torched on the year for 248.1 ypg and 26 touchdowns, and the lone reason why both numbers are not higher is because this unit has been fortunate enough to grab 17 interceptions. Four of those interceptions were hauled in by Justin Wilson, who joins Law and Gray on the C-USA'a Second Team roster.
Louisville has the potential on the roster to possess a balanced attack, but that was not the case for the Cardinals, who fell way short of expectations in 2010. A major reason for the team's short-comings was due to injuries to a couple of key players in Bilal Powell and Adam Froman. Powell only missed one game on the year, but spent most of the season dealing with nagging injures. However, that did not stop the running back from rumbling for 1,330 yards and 10 touchdowns on 6.3 yards per attempt. As a whole, the ground game for Louisville produced a robust 180.5 ypg, and because of that impressive display the Cardinals were able to either grind out wins, or keep matchups close down the stretch. Powell's success on the season did not go unnoticed, as the powerful back (6-0, 215) earned a spot on the Big East Conference's First Team.
Unfortunately, Froman's injury was much more severe, and kept the quarterback from competing in four games, while limiting him in other key matchups. Obviously, losing a quarterback is never easy to deal with, especially one as talented and experienced as Froman. In eight games, the signal caller completed just over 60 percent of his throws and tossed 11 touchdowns against four interceptions. However, in Froman's stead was Justin Burke, who performed admirably. Burke threw eight touchdowns and completed 56.7 percent of his passes, and as of right now he will be getting the nod on Tuesday over Froman.
"(Adam) Froman is practicing, but (Justin) Burke is still the starter. You still have all three guys with Froman, Burke and (Will) Stein. You watched Froman go down early in the season and then Burke came in to lead the football team. Burke went down in the Rutgers game and Stein came in. This is good because all three guys understand the system and you are comfortable with all three guys." With the Louisville offense not reaching its full potential this year, the defense had to enhance its play to get to six wins and remain competitive in league play.
The biggest factor in the defense's success was Hakeem Smith. The redshirt freshman stepped into the safety position and led this defense with his physical and emotional style of play. The hard-hitting playmaker paced Louisville with 80 tackles, and his play on the field earned him a spot on the conference's Second Team, but more importantly led to the honor of being named Big East Rookie of the Year. Smith was not alone in the secondary however, as Johnny Patrick also played a huge role, collecting a team-high five interceptions. With those picks and his ability to be a shut down corner, Patrick was named to the league's First Team and helped Louisville limit the opposition to just 162.5 ypg via the pass.
If there was an issue with coach Strong's defense it has come against the run. Louisville is not being abused from game to game, but the team is surrendering 142.2 ypg, which clearly suggests there are holes to exploit in the frontline. Louisville is holding opponents under 20.0 ppg on the season, and if the team wishes to keep the Golden Eagles from crossing that plateau, than the Cardinals will definitely need to fill the gaps up front.
• PREGAME NOTES
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Louisville is making its first trip to the bowling-alley after missing out three straight years under the disastrous Steve Kragthorpe regime, making them a ‘bowl virgin’. Our database says that’s a wagering no-no: first-year coaches are just 29-46-1 ATS in bowl games – including 7-16 ATS versus a foe off a SU and ATS loss, while ‘bowl virgin’ favorites are just 22-31 ATS. Louisville don’t exactly stand at the head of the class either when it comes to grabbing the post-season green, going 2-7 ATS in its last nine tries as bowlers (1-5 ATS if the Cards are playing off a win).
Even worse, bowlers off a loss in which they scored 45 or more points are a paltry 2-8 ATS, and Big East bowlers in general have bungled their way to a combined 3-10 ATS mark versus a foe off a SU loss. The Golden Eagles from Hattiesburg counter with a 4-1 ATS record as bowl dogs versus an opponent off a SU and ATS win and a 3-1 ATS mark against Big East foes. Much has been made of Louisville head coach Steve Kragthorpe 12th-ranked defensive unit but they’d better show up with their lunch pails as USM’s double-deuce offense rushes and passes for more than 200 YPG.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Louisville by 2.5; O/U 57
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Louisville -3
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Louisville -3.96
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--SOUTHERN MISS is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers since 1992.
The average score was SOUTHERN MISS 27.3, OPPONENT 20.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--LOUISVILLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game since 1992.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 26.3, OPPONENT 35.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--LOUISVILLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 26.4, OPPONENT 34.6 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--SOUTHERN MISS is 20-8 UNDER (+11.2 Units) in road games after playing their last game on the road since 1992.
The average score was SOUTHERN MISS 21.1, OPPONENT 20.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--SOUTHERN MISS is 18-7 UNDER (+10.3 Units) off a road loss since 1992.
The average score was SOUTHERN MISS 26.7, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--SOUTHERN MISS is 3-12 against the 1rst half line (-10.2 Units) after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SOUTHERN MISS 14.1, OPPONENT 16.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--SOUTHERN MISS is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) in road games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SOUTHERN MISS 13.4, OPPONENT 18.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--LOUISVILLE is 10-2 against the 1rst half line (+7.8 Units) versus the first half line in all games this season.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 17.9, OPPONENT 10.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--LOUISVILLE is 8-1 against the 1rst half line (+6.9 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 18.0, OPPONENT 11.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--LOUISVILLE is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line this season.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 24.0, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--SOUTHERN MISS is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) the 1rst half total after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SOUTHERN MISS 15.2, OPPONENT 18.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--SOUTHERN MISS is 7-1 OVER (+5.9 Units) the 1rst half total after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was SOUTHERN MISS 20.4, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--LOUISVILLE is 19-4 OVER (+14.6 Units) the 1rst half total when the first half total is between 28.5 and 31.5 since 1992.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 21.6, OPPONENT 15.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (SOUTHERN MISS) - after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game.
(49-19 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.1%, +28.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 59.6
The average score in these games was: Team 25.7, Opponent 30 (Total points scored = 55.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 35 (51.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-11).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (28-14).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (54-22).
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***** TUESDAY, DECEMBER 21ST NBA INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• HOT TEAMS
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-- Dallas won 15 of its last 16 games; they're 9-1 vs spread on road.
-- Thunder won five of their last six games.
-- Grizzlies won four of last six games, covered nine of last 11.
-- Bulls won seven of their last eight games. 76ers won four of last five games, covered 12 of last 14 (4-1 last five as road dog).
-- Lakers won seven of last eight games, covered last three.
• COLD TEAMS
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-- Orlando lost three in row, seven of last eight games.
-- Bobcats lost five of last six games, covered two of last eight as a road underdog.
-- Nets are 0-6 vs spread in last six road games.
-- Warriors lost last nine games, covered one of last five. Sacramento lost its last five games (1-4 vs spread).
-- Milwaukee lost last three games, by 2-9-26 points.
• BACK-TO-BACK
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-- Mavericks are 4-0 (3-1 vs spread) if they played night before.
-- Charlotte is 4-1 vs spread at home if they played on road the night before,
-- Warriors are 2-3 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Home team is 5-0 vs spread in games where Milwaukee is playing for second consecutive night (Bucks 2-0 vs spread on road).
• TOTALS
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-- Seven of last eight Dallas games went over the total. Seven of last eight Orlando games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Charlotte games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Memphis games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Chicago home games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Golden State games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Laker home games stayed under the total.
• QUICK HITS
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--DALLAS @ ORLANDO, 7:00 PM ET DALLAS: 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record. ORLANDO: 4-17 ATS after playing a game as favorite.
--OKLAHOMA CITY @ CHARLOTTE, 7:00 PM ET OKLAHOMA CITY: 6-1 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games. CHARLOTTE: 19-5 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games.
--NEW JERSEY @ MEMPHIS, 8:00 PM ET NEW JERSEY: 54-34 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog. MEMPHIS: 0-9 ATS at home off 2 or more consecutive road losses.
--PHILADELPHIA @ CHICAGO, 8:00 PM ET PHILADELPHIA: 18-8 ATS in all games. CHICAGO: 15-5 OVER at home when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.
--GOLDEN STATE @ SACRAMENTO, 10:00 PM ET GOLDEN STATE: 31-14 ATS after allowing 120 points or more. SACRAMENTO: 1-9 ATS off a home loss.
--MILWAUKEE @ LA LAKERS, 10:30 PM ET MILWAUKEE: 3-11 ATS in non-conference games. LA LAKERS: 8-2 ATS off a road win.
• NOTES & TIPS
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--The Milwaukee Bucks playing without Brandon Jennings seems hard to imagine after the point guard started his first 114 games with the team. But it's a reality the team must adjust to quickly after Monday's news that Jennings will miss the next four to six weeks with a fractured fifth metatarsal in his left foot. Jennings underwent surgery in Milwaukee on Monday afternoon to repair the long bone on the outside of the foot that connects to the little toe.
He was injured last week when he made a drive to the basket in the second quarter against San Antonio. Jennings was helped off the court but returned for the second half with no apparent problems. Then he played 30 minutes against Utah on Saturday night but struggled visibly in the Bucks' 95-86 loss to the Jazz at the Bradley Center. Jennings' injury is just the latest for the Bucks this season but it's the first time the 21-year-old has been forced to miss a game.
--The NBA Board of Governors approved the league's purchase of the New Orleans Hornets on Monday afternoon, as expected. The league will be announcing the completion of the sale shortly. Jac Sperling, New Orleans native and Minnesota sports attorney, will serve as the team's chairman and Board of Governors' representative while President Hugh Weber continues to be in control of the franchise's day-to-day operations. The NBA announced two weeks ago it was buying the team from founding owner George Shinn and his partner Gary Chouest because the parnters could not consummate a deal for Chouest, the Louisiana billionaire, to buy Shinn's 65 percent of the team.
--Don't expect any team to get a Christmas wish and find Carmelo Anthony under its tree. That's because the Denver Nuggets are entering the next phase in their last-ditch effort to try to keep Anthony. The Nuggets are close to having their full roster intact for the first time this season. And a source said Monday night that Denver has no desire to trade Anthony until it can be seen how the team looks with a full cast.
Forward Kenyon Martin, who has yet to play this season following offseason knee surgery, could return as soon as Wednesday at San Antonio or Saturday at Oklahoma City. And both guard Chauncey Billups, who has been out the past three games with a wrist injury, and center Chris Andersen, out since Dec. 3 with a back injury, are expected back for the San Antonio game. The Nuggets are 16-10 despite those injuries this season. Before team officials pull any trigger and deal Anthony, they want to see what his mindset would be and how the Nuggets will look when they have a full cast.
• NOTE: NBA betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand NBA Odds, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these NBA Odds with the public in mind. They know the public is going to bet the Lakers and Bulls (and other public teams) every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like that.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best NBA Odds. Many different books release different numbers and NBA Odds always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best NBA Odds, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
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*** DALLAS @ ORLANDO (-4, O/U 190) ***
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The Dallas Mavericks have stopped six opponent winning streaks of at least five games this season, including two 12-game runs after notching an impressive victory over the NBA's newest superstar trio. The Orlando Magic would like a little help ending a different kind of trend. Orlando's new-look roster plays at home for the first time Tuesday night, when it tries to solve the Mavericks' road dominance while avoiding its eighth loss in nine games.
Dallas had a 12-game winning streak snapped Dec. 13 at home against Milwaukee, but it's been awfully good thwarting streaks itself. The Mavericks entered Monday having already ended streaks by Boston, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, Utah and San Antonio totaling 37 games, the most impressive of which was a 103-94 road win last month to snap the Spurs' 12-game run. Dallas may have outdone itself in Miami. The Heat had won 12 consecutive games by an average of 15.2 points before being held to 40.5 percent shooting in Monday's 98-96 loss to the Mavericks.
"I don't make a huge deal out of (it)," Mavs coach Rick Carlisle said. "We are just trying to play solid basketball and win as many games as we can." That's certainly what Dallas has done on the road. The Mavericks are 9-1 away from the American Airlines Center, including six straight wins against teams that are a combined 45 games above .500. That can't be good news for the Magic who have averaged 88.1 points in losing seven of their last eight.
Orlando shot 35.2 percent and looked out of sorts Monday in a 91-81 loss at Atlanta as Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu made their debuts after Saturday's pair of trades. "We're starting from scratch," coach Stan Van Gundy said. "We would have all liked it to have been better but it wasn't. "Look, they're out there trying hard, just none of them played well. Nobody could shoot the ball.... I'm sure they had a lot of emotions and stuff going on. It was a long night." Dwight Howard, who had his second straight 20-rebound performance in a loss, took a more optimistic approach.
"Once we get going we'll be fine," Howard said. "It's been a terrible month for us. We'll pull out of it. Nobody's hanging their heads." The Magic have won their last two games in Dallas, Howard grabbed 20 boards in a 97-82 win on April 1, but they've witnessed the Mavericks' road toughness before. Dallas has won its last four visits to Orlando, with a nine-point victory the smallest margin in that stretch. The Mavs have shot 51.3 percent in those victories. What Dallas has done so effectively against good teams lately is defend.
The Mavericks have allowed just 94.7 points per game against opponents that are .500 or better, more troubling news for a Magic team that's adjusting to a new rotation. Arenas, the highest-profile member of Orlando's new trio, struggled in his debut, missing nine of his 11 shots. One of the guards that directly preceded Arenas in the University of Arizona backcourt a decade ago had a rough three quarters Monday against the Heat before catching fire. Jason Terry didn't score until the final 11 minutes but finished with 19 points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 1; O/U 190
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -0.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -0.69
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 95.1, OPPONENT 97.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.
The average score was DALLAS 101.4, OPPONENT 94.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season.
The average score was DALLAS 101.0, OPPONENT 92.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 48-28 UNDER (+17.2 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 99.8, OPPONENT 94.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 64-43 UNDER (+16.6 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 100.6, OPPONENT 95.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 36-18 against the 1rst half line (+15.9 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 52.6, OPPONENT 46.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 34-20 against the 1rst half line (+11.9 Units) when the first half total is 95.5 to 100.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 51.7, OPPONENT 46.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--ORLANDO is 26-13 against the 1rst half line (+11.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 53.4, OPPONENT 47.8 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 81-54 UNDER (+21.6 Units) the 1rst half total after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games since 1996.
The average score was ORLANDO 47.4, OPPONENT 48.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--ORLANDO is 53-32 UNDER (+17.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 49.4, OPPONENT 47.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
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--PLAY ON - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (ORLANDO) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games.
(47-17 since 1996.) (73.4%, +28.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.2, Opponent 44.4 (Average first half point differential = +6.8)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-10).
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Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” -Stan
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*** OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5, O/U 191) @ CHARLOTTE ***
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The Oklahoma City Thunder ended a four-game homestand with a poor defensive performance, but they have a good chance to bounce back on the road. The Thunder look to avoid their second back-to-back losses of the season Tuesday when they visit the Charlotte Bobcats, who are coming off an especially anemic offensive showing. Oklahoma City had its five-game winning streak snapped with a 113-110 loss to Phoenix on Sunday. The Thunder had held opponents to 89.7 points per game on 41.1-percent shooting while winning the previous three games of their homestand, but allowed the Suns to shoot 57.5 percent.
"We didn't play the defense we need to win an NBA basketball game," coach Scott Brooks said. "I'm disappointed in that... We couldn't stop them when we needed to." Kevin Durant scored 28 points, but shot just 8 of 19 and missed 5 of 6 from 3-point range. Russell Westbrook, Nick Collison and Jeff Green each scored 19 points as Oklahoma City reached the century mark in scoring for the fourth straight game. Oklahoma City has done a good job at bouncing back after losses this season and a game against Charlotte doesn't figure to change that. The only time the Thunder lost back-to-back games was Oct. 31 and Nov. 3 against Utah and the Los Angeles Clippers.
After this contest, Oklahoma City will visit New York on Wednesday to complete a quick trip against Eastern Conference foes. The Thunder are 8-3 against teams from the East, giving up 97.5 points in those contests compared to 104.7 against the West. Oklahoma City will look to put up similar defensive numbers against a Charlotte team that is among the lowest-scoring teams in the league with 92.2 points per game and has been even worse recently. The Bobcats lost 108-75 to Washington on Monday.
After shooting 56.3 percent in the first half, the Bobcats, who have lost three straight and five of six, made only one field goal in the third quarter -- tying a franchise low for any quarter -- as they were outscored 31-11. Charlotte has averaged 79.8 points in its last five games and hasn't scored more than 85 during a three-game skid. "We're just terrible on all cylinders," said Stephen Jackson, whose 13 points were a team high. "Even myself, I played terrible and had six turnovers. As a team we've been playing bad.
At the end of the day, (the coaches) job is to prepare us and our job is to go out there and play. He's one of those coaches that if the team's not playing well he likes to take the blame. I'm one of the same guys. I'm not playing well." Gerald Wallace missed his third straight game with a left ankle sprain and is uncertain for Tuesday. The Bobcats have won three straight at home against the Thunder, but are 1-8 in the second game of back-to-backs, losing the last five. These teams split their two-game season series in 2009-10. Durant totaled 56 points in those contests.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Oklahoma City 4.5; O/U 198
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Oklahoma City -7
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Oklahoma City -3.97
________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 102.6, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-15 ATS (+16.4 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 103.9, OPPONENT 100.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--CHARLOTTE is 56-33 OVER (+19.7 Units) versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=33% of their attempts since 1996.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 95.4, OPPONENT 98.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 50-31 OVER (+15.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 103.6, OPPONENT 101.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
------------------------------------------------
--CHARLOTTE is 7-19 against the 1rst half line (-13.9 Units) versus the first half line in all games this season.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 45.0, OPPONENT 49.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 50-29 against the 1rst half line (+18.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 53.2, OPPONENT 50.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 62-41 against the 1rst half line (+16.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 51.1, OPPONENT 50.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--CHARLOTTE is 36-14 UNDER (+19.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 47.1, OPPONENT 44.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHARLOTTE is 35-14 UNDER (+19.4 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 46.9, OPPONENT 44.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHARLOTTE is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 41.8, OPPONENT 43.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHARLOTTE is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after scoring 90 points or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 40.5, OPPONENT 41.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Road teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after allowing 105 points or more against opponent after scoring 85 points or less 3 straight games.
(35-11 since 1996.) (76.1%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (28-19)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1
The average score in these games was: Team 92.7, Opponent 89.6 (Average point differential = +3.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (35.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more.
(48-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.7%, +28.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 45.7, Opponent 47.4 (Total first half points scored = 93.1)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-11).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (96-63).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (CHARLOTTE) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half.
(39-15 since 1996.) (72.2%, +22.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.5, Opponent 48.1 (Average first half point differential = +2.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
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*** NEW JERSEY @ MEMPHIS (-6.5, O/U 188.5) ***
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The New Jersey Nets are feeling good after winning as many games this past week as they won the previous four weeks combined. Both those victories came on their home court, however, and now they're about to take to the road, where they've struggled mightily. Embarking on a road-heavy stretch of the schedule, the Nets look to avoid losing their 11th straight away from New Jersey on Tuesday night when they face the Memphis Grizzlies.
New Jersey will play five of six games on the road, and 10 of its next 13 away from the Prudential Center. This doesn't bode well for the Nets, who have lost 10 straight road games and are 6-49 away from New Jersey since the start of last season. Beginning this stretch in Memphis could also be problematic, as the Grizzlies have won six of seven at home, including victories over the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami.
New Jersey will start this portion of its schedule with a bit of momentum, however, after beating Atlanta 89-82 on Sunday. It was the Nets' second win in three games following a 2-13 stretch. Devin Harris led New Jersey with 22 points, while Stephen Graham and Sasha Vujacic each had season highs of 10 points. "It was a good feeling to put together the right formula to pick up the win," Harris told the Nets' official website. "It's not going to be the same thing every night, but it felt good to hone some of the things we were working on and see them come through."
The Grizzlies meanwhile, are feeling dejected following Saturday's 112-106 overtime loss at San Antonio. Playing against the team with the league's best record and without leading scorer Rudy Gay, who was serving a one-game suspension, Memphis nearly had enough to pull off the upset. O.J. Mayo hit a game-tying 3-pointer with 21 seconds left to force overtime, but the Grizzlies struggled in the extra session, missing five of seven shots and turning the ball over twice.
"We should've won the game as we played so well," Mayo said. "Now it was all for no reason." Mayo led Memphis with 27 points, while Zach Randolph had 24 points and season-best 21 rebounds. Mayo got the start Saturday, his first since Nov. 19, but will likely go back to the bench with Gay returning from his suspension. This seems to be advantageous for the Grizzlies, who are 8-6 with Mayo coming off the bench, while 4-10 with him in the starting lineup.
Gay, who averages 21.0 points, was suspended after being ejected in Friday's loss to Houston after sprinting down court midway through the fourth quarter to shove Luis Scola in the back, knocking him to the ground. The two had been tangled up on the other end of the court moments earlier. Gay averaged 25.0 points on 51.3 percent shooting in helping the Grizzlies sweep the two-game season series from the Nets in 2009-10. Harris averaged 22.5 points in those games for New Jersey.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Memphis by 8; O/U 196.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Memphis -6.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Memphis -6.98
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--NEW JERSEY is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW JERSEY 93.1, OPPONENT 102.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW JERSEY is 10-25 ATS (-17.4 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW JERSEY 95.0, OPPONENT 105.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 56-31 UNDER (+21.9 Units) in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 97.4, OPPONENT 91.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--MEMPHIS is 44-23 UNDER (+18.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 95.3, OPPONENT 100.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW JERSEY is 32-14 UNDER (+16.4 Units) after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW JERSEY 90.3, OPPONENT 99.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 57-35 against the 1rst half line (+18.5 Units) after one or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 51.1, OPPONENT 50.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 42-21 against the 1rst half line (+17.9 Units) after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 50.7, OPPONENT 49.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--NEW JERSEY is 68-38 UNDER (+26.2 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing >=16 turnovers/game since 1996.
The average score was NEW JERSEY 46.4, OPPONENT 48.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW JERSEY is 63-40 UNDER (+18.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) since 1996.
The average score was NEW JERSEY 45.6, OPPONENT 47.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Any team (MEMPHIS) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog.
(37-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.0%, +22.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 199.4
The average score in these games was: Team 96.7, Opponent 97 (Total points scored = 193.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 30 (58.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-6).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (87-51).
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (MEMPHIS) - after a loss by 6 points or less against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less.
(74-32 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.8%, +38.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.6, Opponent 45.2 (Average first half point differential = +4.3)
The situation's record this season is: (4-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (42-15).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (230-212).
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*** PHILADELPHIA @ CHICAGO (-6.5, O/U 191) ***
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After their season-best seven-game winning streak was snapped in dramatic fashion, the Chicago Bulls will look to get back on track against a Philadelphia 76ers team they've dominated recently. The Bulls will try for their fifth win in six games versus the 76ers when they meet for the first time this season Tuesday night. Playing for the first time without leading rebounder Joakim Noah, Chicago found itself in a close game against the Los Angeles Clippers at home Saturday night.
Trailing by two with 0.8 seconds to go, Derrick Rose went to the free-throw line to try to tie the game. However, after hitting his first attempt, he missed the second and the Bulls fell 100-99. "I thought I was going to hit them. That's basketball. I hope I get put in that position again. I know I'm not going to miss it," said Rose, who is the only player in the league averaging at least 24.0 points and 8.0 assists. "It felt good, but I left it a bit short."
Rose scored 34 and dished out eight assists while Carlos Boozer had 25 points. Boozer is averaging 27.0 points, 9.7 more than his career average, over his previous three games, and he's averaged 22.6 points and 10.7 rebounds in his last nine against Philadelphia. Taj Gibson made his first career start at center but was forced to leave in the third quarter after sustaining a concussion. Gibson, though, is likely to be available Tuesday.
The Bulls were outrebounded for the first time in eight games and know they need a better effort with Noah out for up to two months with a thumb injury. He was averaging 11.7 rebounds, among the best in the NBA. "Teams are going to try to go big against us, especially when we have our three (Luol Deng) at four," Rose told the Bulls' official website. "We've got to know that as a team and all five rebound or give help when they go in the post and go for the rebound."
On the first stop of an eight-game trip, Philadelphia recorded consecutive road victories for the first time all season by defeating short-handed Orlando 97-89 on Saturday night. Elton Brand recorded 20 points and 13 rebounds after scoring eight in a 93-81 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday night that ended his stretch of 10 straight games in double figures. The 76ers, winners of six of eight, have stepped up on the defensive end, allowing an average of 84.0 points in their previous five matchups.
"Defensively as a team, this is the best we've played as a unit," Brand said. "It feels like we're hitting on all cylinders defensively." Andre Iguodala, averaging 14.5 points, has scored 19.7 in his last three games and 23.2 over his previous five visits to Chicago. Philadelphia, which is 3-10 on the road, has lost three straight at the United Center by an average of 17.4 points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Chicago by 7; O/U 193
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Chicago -7
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Chicago -6.78
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--PHILADELPHIA is 70-45 ATS (+20.5 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) since 1996.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 92.6, OPPONENT 96.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 71-46 ATS (+20.4 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 95.2, OPPONENT 100.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 98.9, OPPONENT 91.0 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 29-10 UNDER (+17.9 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 96.9, OPPONENT 99.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 32-13 UNDER (+17.5 Units) after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 97.5, OPPONENT 100.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 27-46 against the 1rst half line (-22.5 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 48.6, OPPONENT 50.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHICAGO is 1-12 against the 1rst half line (-12.2 Units) in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 47.8, OPPONENT 52.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 53.0, OPPONENT 45.5 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 90-62 UNDER (+21.8 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 46.9, OPPONENT 45.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHICAGO is 13-0 UNDER (+13.0 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 46.6, OPPONENT 42.2 - (Rating = 5*)
--CHICAGO is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 45.9, OPPONENT 42.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (CHICAGO) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games.
(34-11 since 1996.) (75.6%, +21.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.1, Opponent 46.2 (Total first half points scored = 93.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-1).
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*** GOLDEN STATE @ SACRAMENTO (-3, O/U 205) ***
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As the Golden State Warriors seek to avoid a season-high six-game road losing streak, potentially getting Stephen Curry back for a visit to the NBA-worst Sacramento Kings may present them with the ideal chance. The Warriors attempt to win for just the third time in 17 games overall as they face the Kings on Tuesday night. Golden State is 3-12 on the road this season, dropping nine of its last 10 with a pair of five-game skids. That dubious stretch is part of a 2-14 overall run that has seen the Warriors give up an average of 109.6 points.
Having Curry back could provide the boost they need. The guard, second on the team with an average of 20.1 points and first with 5.6 assists, has missed the last five games with a sprained right ankle, but there's a chance he could be back Tuesday. Coach Kevin Smart, though, may hold him out to see him practice first. Golden State also has injuries to center Andris Biedrins (sprained left ankle) and forward-center Dan Gadzuric (strained left groin), but Curry's absence has been the biggest blow. The team is 2-5 without him this season after losing 121-112 to Houston on Monday.
"We've got to get a full team. We've got to get a roster to finish games," Smart said. "I don't look at the situation we're in right now. I know where we are. I look at where we're trying to go." Regardless of personnel, Monta Ellis continues to be the Warriors' top scoring threat. The guard scored 44 points against the Rockets, and leads Golden State with 25.2 per game. He's topped the 40-point mark three times this season, but only one of those efforts resulted in a victory. Ellis had 39 points in his last meeting with Sacramento as the Warriors won 108-101 at home on Jan. 8.
He missed the next two matchups with ankle and knee injuries, while Curry totaled 51 points and 21 assists in those games. The Pacific Division rivals split four meetings last season with the home team winning each time. The Kings, losers of 19 of 21, would like to see that trend continue, but they own the worst record in the NBA and have lost all five meetings against division foes by an average of 16.8 points. Sacramento showed few signs of being able to reverse its dismal season Sunday, extending its losing streak to five with a 102-93 home loss to Houston.
The club sputtered in the fourth quarter, making 5 of 18 shots and scoring four points in the final 9:09. "We've got to find a way to break this losing streak," said swingman Francisco Garcia, who had 14 points. "I really don't have an answer for it, but we've got to find a way to close as a team." Tyreke Evans, who averaged 20.1 points as last season's NBA rookie of the year, was just 6 of 21 from the field against the Rockets and is shooting 34.0 percent in his last six games. He's averaging 14.5 points in that stretch, also missing one game with a sore left foot that may be slowing him down.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Golden State by 1; O/U 205
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Sacramento - 1.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Golden State -0.47
________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--SACRAMENTO is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 92.7, OPPONENT 102.7 - (Rating = 5*)
--SACRAMENTO is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 90.1, OPPONENT 103.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 30-11 ATS (+17.9 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 112.4, OPPONENT 113.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--SACRAMENTO is 25-8 UNDER (+16.2 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 95.0, OPPONENT 101.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 36-17 UNDER (+17.2 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 103.0, OPPONENT 112.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 94.3, OPPONENT 102.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--SACRAMENTO is 5-21 against the 1rst half line (-18.1 Units) when the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 48.9, OPPONENT 55.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 2-10 against the 1rst half line (-9.0 Units) when the first half total >= 100.5 this season.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 49.0, OPPONENT 54.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--SACRAMENTO is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) off a home loss this season.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 44.5, OPPONENT 51.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 20-4 against the 1rst half line (+15.5 Units) in road games after playing a game as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 54.3, OPPONENT 53.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--SACRAMENTO is 42-20 UNDER (+19.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 47.9, OPPONENT 50.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 15-3 UNDER (+11.7 Units) the 1rst half total as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line this season.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 45.3, OPPONENT 53.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games this season.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 46.6, OPPONENT 50.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (SACRAMENTO) - cold team - having lost 20 or more of their last 25 games against opponent after having lost 4 of their last 5 games.
(43-13 since 1996.) (76.8%, +28.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.6, Opponent 47.2 (Average first half point differential = +4.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-2).
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*** MILWAUKEE @ LA LAKERS (-12, O/U 189) ***
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Home after a seven-game road trip and with a Christmas Day showdown looming, it'd be easy for the Los Angeles Lakers to overlook the Milwaukee Bucks. They might be able to get by even if they do. The Lakers seek a sixth straight victory overall and a seventh in a row Tuesday over the Bucks, who looked lost in their first game without Brandon Jennings. Los Angeles needed a buzzer-beater to get past the Clippers on Dec. 8 to open its string of road games, then lost 88-84 in Chicago two nights later to fall to 3-5 in its last eight.
Any concerns of a rare early-season funk have since faded. Andrew Bynum returned last Tuesday and the Lakers finished the Eastern Conference portion of their trip with five wins by an average of 11.6 points, culminating in a 120-110 victory at Toronto on Sunday. The Lakers' reserves scored 57 points against the Raptors, led by 16 from Bynum. "They've been solid this entire trip," Kobe Bryant said. "They came in and gave us a big boost."
Los Angeles hosts Miami on Saturday in a highly anticipated nationally televised tilt, but first must avoid looking past Milwaukee which got some tough news Monday. Jennings started to feel pain in his left foot Wednesday in a tight loss at San Antonio, but played again anyway Saturday in a 95-86 defeat against Utah. An exam later revealed a fracture, which will sideline the Bucks' leading scorer for four to six weeks.
In addition, neither Carlos Delfino nor Corey Maggette is on the team's current three-game trip after both have had concussion symptoms. "No one's going to feel sorry for us," general manager John Hammond said. "We still have a job to do, that's win every game that we take floor." Milwaukee didn't get off to a good start without Jennings on Monday in Portland. The Bucks fell behind by 24 at halftime and shot 38.0 percent overall in a 106-80 loss.
"Obviously, we missed Brandon tonight," center Andrew Bogut said. "His scoring and his penetration helps keep the floor spread. Teams are starting to really pound us now and we have to adjust." The Lakers certainly won't be upset with Jennings' absence. Jennings matched Bryant with 31 points in Milwaukee on Nov. 16, but Shannon Brown's 21 points off the bench proved to be the difference in Los Angeles' 118-107 victory, its sixth straight in the series.
Brown was also a difference-maker the last time the teams met at Staples Center. He had 19 points Jan. 10 as the Lakers won 95-77 despite missing an injured Pau Gasol. Gasol looks healthy heading into this matchup after averaging 19.7 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.2 blocks in his last six games. His 60.1 career field-goal percentage versus Milwaukee is his best against any opponent. Gasol, Bynum and Lamar Odom should certainly give Los Angeles an edge inside. The Lakers are averaging 46.6 points in the paint in December and surrendering 37.6.
They're not letting teams beat them from the perimeter, either. Los Angeles has held its opposition to 31.7-percent shooting from 3-point range this month, second-best in the NBA. Milwaukee has lost eight of the 11 games in which it's been held under 31.7 percent from beyond the arc.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Lakers by 9.5; O/U 192.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Lakers -10
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Lakers -9.63
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--LA LAKERS are 31-54 ATS (-28.4 Units) in home games after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 104.2, OPPONENT 98.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--LA LAKERS are 11-26 ATS (-17.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 107.6, OPPONENT 96.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 99.1, OPPONENT 94.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--LA LAKERS are 69-42 UNDER (+22.8 Units) after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 103.2, OPPONENT 96.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--LA LAKERS are 30-11 UNDER (+17.8 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 104.8, OPPONENT 94.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after playing a game as a road underdog this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 88.1, OPPONENT 90.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--LA LAKERS are 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) after playing 2 consecutive road games this season.
The average score was LA LAKERS 55.1, OPPONENT 41.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was LA LAKERS 55.6, OPPONENT 45.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 8-1 against the 1rst half line (+6.9 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season.
The average score was LA LAKERS 55.2, OPPONENT 46.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--MILWAUKEE is 5-18 against the 1rst half line (-14.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 45.1, OPPONENT 51.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--LA LAKERS are 43-21 UNDER (+19.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 53.1, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 39-20 UNDER (+17.6 Units) the 1rst half total after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 52.1, OPPONENT 47.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 40-18 UNDER (+20.2 Units) the 1rst half total revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 46.6, OPPONENT 46.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
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--PLAY ON - Home favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (LA LAKERS) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.
(48-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.7%, +28.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 7.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 55.2, Opponent 44.6 (Average first half point differential = +10.6)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-15).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (92-52).
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