NCAAB
Write-Up
Tuesday December 21
USC is 6-5, 2-3 in last five games, but with transfer PG Fontan playing for first time Saturday, they lost 70-68 (+18) at Kansas; Trojans are 3-1 as underdogs, losing true road games by 2-12-2 points. Tennessee is 7-2 against #11 schedule, but lost last two games, to Oakland/Charlotte; they are 3-4 as favorites. Pac-10 single digit road underdogs are 5-10.
Cincinnati won last seven games vs Miami OH, by 4-6-8-10-24-20-12 points; Bearcats are 10-0 playing the #336 schedule- they beat Toledo by 34, Oklahoma by 10 in only true road games. Miami is 2-5 in its last seven games vs D-I teams; they're 2-4 vs spread as underdogs- five of their six losses are by 12+ points.
Long Beach State is only 5-7, but they've played hardest schedule in the country, according to kenpom.com; 49ers are playing 5th road game in a row; they've lost road games by 27 at Washington, 28 at Utah State, 5 at North Carolina- they covered three of last four as a dog. Arizona State is struggling at 5-4, but they've covered three of four as a favorite.
VCU is 7-3, 1-2 as underdog, losing road games by 1 at South Florida, 12 at Richmond, 5 to Tennessee on neutral floor. UAB is 8-2 playing #291 schedule; they're 8-1 vs spread in lined games, 5-1 as favorite. Blazers allowed 55 ppg in last five games. C-USA single digit home favorites are 4-10-1 vs spread. CAA road underdogs of 8 or less points are 11-6.
Iowa is 6-5, playing #225 schedule; they've allowed 53 or less points in its wins, 69+ in its losses- they're 3-5 vs spread as a favorite. Louisiana Tech is 1-2 as underdog; they just split four games vs Southland teams, with three of those on road. WAC double digit road underdogs are 2-9 vs spread. Big 11 home favorites of 12+ points are 15-13 vs spread.
Wichita State is 8-2, 2-1 as favorite; they start MVC play vs Evansville next week; Shockers won last three games, allowing 56 ppg- they won by a point at LSU Saturday. Tulsa lost three of last four games; they are 2-3 away from home, losing 69-67 at Ark-Little Rock in only true road game- they covered all three of their games as an underdog.
Kansas State shot 27% from floor, 3-19 from arc, in hideous 57-44 loss to Florida Saturday, just second loss in 11 games for K-State (2-3 when favored). Wildcats beat UNLV 95-80 in Vegas LY. Rebels lost two of last three games after 9-0 start; they're 5-1 away from home, losing by 8 at Louisville. MWC road underdogs of 10 or less points are 6-9.
Visitor won four of last six Pacific-Fresno State games; Tigers won two of last three visits here. Pacific is 6-4 playing #50 schedule; they're 2-4 on road, winning at UTEP/Nevada. Big West teams are 8-4 vs spread in any game where spread is 3 or less points. Fresno won last three games after 1-5 start; they're 3-1 at home, losing by 11 to Washington State.
Murray State is 14-1 in last 15 games vs UT-Martin, losing here couple years ago when UTM had Lester Hudson; Racers' last three wins here are by 6-4-32 points. Murray won four of last five games; they're 2-1 as a favorite, 2-2 on road, with wins by 8-2 points. UT-Martin lost seven of last eight games vs D-I teams; they're 2-2 as an underdog.
Tennessee Tech is 14-1 in last 15 games vs SE Missouri State, winning last seven played here by 1-2-15-11-17-27-14 points; Eagles won last five series games, with 82-73 the closest score. Tech won its first two OVC games by combined total of three points. OVC home favorites are 3-5 vs spread in league games. SEMo is 3-4-1 as an underdog.
Eastern Kentucky won last three games vs Tennessee State by 18-8-17 points; they won four of last five visits here, winning by 12-5-2-17 pts. Colonels are 2-5 vs D-I teams, 1-2 in OVC, losing by 2 to Murray State, 27 at Austin Peay. State is 3-6 vs D-I teams, covering all three games in OVC, with only loss by a point at Eastern Illinois.
Morehead State won four of last five games vs Austin Peay; last three were decided either by one point or in OT; Eagles lost three of last four here, losing by 11-1-4 points. Peay won first three OVC games by 18-4-27 points (3-0 as favorite)- they lost in OT at Memphis as a 13-pt dog. Morehead is 1-5 on road, getting upset at Tennessee State last game.
Northwestern is 8-0, playing #309 schedule; they won road games by 19 at Northern Illinois, 6 at Tex-Pan American and also beat Creighton and Georgia Tech at home (only two teams they played ranked higher than #178). St John's has nine seniors, but is just 6-3, losing twice as 14-point favorite; they split pair of games against only two top 100 teams they've played so far, losing by 5 at St Mary's, beating Arizona State by 9.
