jeff benton tuesday
push yesterday with cincy...up nearly 500 units in past 16 days. fyi
TUESDAY'S ACTION
30 Dime college football selection on Northern Illinois minus the points at home against MAC rival Toledo. The Huskies are a dauble-digit favorite in this contest, with the number ranging from 10½ to 11 both offshore and here in Vegas. As alwlays, make sure you shop around and get the best of the number, particularly since there’s a big diffrrence between 10 and 11 in football (think 31-21, 27-17, 24-14 vs. 21-10, 28-17, 35-24, etc.).
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
I love these kinds of college football games, when the oddsmakers have set such an obvious trap number begging for money on Toledo. The funny thing is it always works – you watch, Vegas will clean up on this game tonight as the public will look at the fact that A) Toledo is 6-3 (winning its last three in a row); B) Toledo, like Northern Illinois, is a perfect 5-0 in conference play; and C) Toledo has taken three of four from Northern Illinois and is 11-2 SU in the last 13 meetings (9-2-1 ATS in the last 12), and they’ll jump on the Rockets plus the double digits.
Well, I wasn’t born to the handiaapping world yesterday, and we aren’t falling for this trap. The simple truth is Northern Illinois is the class of the Mid-American Conference and Toledo is a fraud. Both points will be proven by the fourth quarter tonight.
Start with the home team. While Toledo has won three in a row, Northern Illinois has ripped off six straight wins. The first five were double-digit blowouts over Big Ten member Minnesota (34-23) and MAC foes Akron (50-14), Temple (31-17), Buffalo (45-14) and Central Michigan (33-7). Then in their most recent contest on Oct. 30, the Huskies went to Western Michigan and won 28-21 as a seven-point road favorite.
Throw in a competitive 28-22 loss at Illinois as a seven-point road underdog, and Northern Illinois is on a 6-0-1 ATS run. And in their three MAC home games – two of them against quality squads Temple and Central Michigan – the Huskies have put up 109 points and allowed just 38. What’s more, they’ve outgained every single one of their conference opponents, including four by more than 100 yards. Overall, NIU is out-yarding league foes by an average of 445-298, and if you throw in the Minnesota win, the Huskies have outrushed their last six opponents by a total of 889 yards!
So what about Toledo? OK, since getting destroyed 57-14 at Boise State on Oct. 9 – which came a week after a 20-15 home loss to Wyoming, which is terrible this season – the Rockets have run off three wins in a row while putting up 34, 31 and 42 points per game. But here’s the rub: The three vicltims were Kent State (home), Ball State (home) and Eastern Michigan (road). Not one of those teams is above .500, and that trio has a combined record of 8-20 overall and 6-11 in conference. Also, Eastern Michigan has given up the most points in college football this season 43.8 ppg), while Ball State isn’t far behind (30.3 ppg).
Also of importance here: Toledo will be without starting quarterback Austin Dantin (injury). Now, I’m sure Toledo supporters will point to that as no big deal, as Dantin (1,254 passing yards, 7 TDs, 8 INTs) has been mediocre at best (true), while his backup – Terrance Owens – passed for 234 yards with four TDs and no picks in relief of Dantin two weeks ago (also true). But Owens was facing Eastern Michigan, which has surrendered 24 TD passes and notched just two interceptions in nine games this season. Northern Illinois allows just 215.8 passing ypg with nine TD passes against 14 INTs. Big difference, huh?
As noted above, the Huskies run the football as well as any team in the country, averaging 243 ypg on the ground and 5.6 yards per carry. Well, the three best rushing teams Toledo has faced this season – Boise State, Purdue and Arizona – racked up 207, 220 and 105 yards, respectively, against the Rockets, averaging a tick under 5 yards per carry. Also, NIU’s ground attack has helped quarterback Chandler Harnish become very efficient; he’s corpleting 66 percent of his passes for 1,439 yards with 12 TDs vs. just four INTs.
As for the series history, yes, Toledo has won three of the last four and 11 of the last 13 and is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 clashes. But the last time the Rockets went to Northern Illinois was in 2008, when the Huskies were as good as they are this season. Result: NIU rolled 38-7 as an eight-point favorite.
Bottom line: As long as Northern Illinois (6-2 ATS last eight at home, all as a chalk) protects the football offense and continues to take it away on defense (18 forced turnovers), it will crush Toledo (1-4 ATS last five as a double-digit underdog) by at least three touchdowns.
push yesterday with cincy...up nearly 500 units in past 16 days. fyi
TUESDAY'S ACTION
30 Dime college football selection on Northern Illinois minus the points at home against MAC rival Toledo. The Huskies are a dauble-digit favorite in this contest, with the number ranging from 10½ to 11 both offshore and here in Vegas. As alwlays, make sure you shop around and get the best of the number, particularly since there’s a big diffrrence between 10 and 11 in football (think 31-21, 27-17, 24-14 vs. 21-10, 28-17, 35-24, etc.).
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
I love these kinds of college football games, when the oddsmakers have set such an obvious trap number begging for money on Toledo. The funny thing is it always works – you watch, Vegas will clean up on this game tonight as the public will look at the fact that A) Toledo is 6-3 (winning its last three in a row); B) Toledo, like Northern Illinois, is a perfect 5-0 in conference play; and C) Toledo has taken three of four from Northern Illinois and is 11-2 SU in the last 13 meetings (9-2-1 ATS in the last 12), and they’ll jump on the Rockets plus the double digits.
Well, I wasn’t born to the handiaapping world yesterday, and we aren’t falling for this trap. The simple truth is Northern Illinois is the class of the Mid-American Conference and Toledo is a fraud. Both points will be proven by the fourth quarter tonight.
Start with the home team. While Toledo has won three in a row, Northern Illinois has ripped off six straight wins. The first five were double-digit blowouts over Big Ten member Minnesota (34-23) and MAC foes Akron (50-14), Temple (31-17), Buffalo (45-14) and Central Michigan (33-7). Then in their most recent contest on Oct. 30, the Huskies went to Western Michigan and won 28-21 as a seven-point road favorite.
Throw in a competitive 28-22 loss at Illinois as a seven-point road underdog, and Northern Illinois is on a 6-0-1 ATS run. And in their three MAC home games – two of them against quality squads Temple and Central Michigan – the Huskies have put up 109 points and allowed just 38. What’s more, they’ve outgained every single one of their conference opponents, including four by more than 100 yards. Overall, NIU is out-yarding league foes by an average of 445-298, and if you throw in the Minnesota win, the Huskies have outrushed their last six opponents by a total of 889 yards!
So what about Toledo? OK, since getting destroyed 57-14 at Boise State on Oct. 9 – which came a week after a 20-15 home loss to Wyoming, which is terrible this season – the Rockets have run off three wins in a row while putting up 34, 31 and 42 points per game. But here’s the rub: The three vicltims were Kent State (home), Ball State (home) and Eastern Michigan (road). Not one of those teams is above .500, and that trio has a combined record of 8-20 overall and 6-11 in conference. Also, Eastern Michigan has given up the most points in college football this season 43.8 ppg), while Ball State isn’t far behind (30.3 ppg).
Also of importance here: Toledo will be without starting quarterback Austin Dantin (injury). Now, I’m sure Toledo supporters will point to that as no big deal, as Dantin (1,254 passing yards, 7 TDs, 8 INTs) has been mediocre at best (true), while his backup – Terrance Owens – passed for 234 yards with four TDs and no picks in relief of Dantin two weeks ago (also true). But Owens was facing Eastern Michigan, which has surrendered 24 TD passes and notched just two interceptions in nine games this season. Northern Illinois allows just 215.8 passing ypg with nine TD passes against 14 INTs. Big difference, huh?
As noted above, the Huskies run the football as well as any team in the country, averaging 243 ypg on the ground and 5.6 yards per carry. Well, the three best rushing teams Toledo has faced this season – Boise State, Purdue and Arizona – racked up 207, 220 and 105 yards, respectively, against the Rockets, averaging a tick under 5 yards per carry. Also, NIU’s ground attack has helped quarterback Chandler Harnish become very efficient; he’s corpleting 66 percent of his passes for 1,439 yards with 12 TDs vs. just four INTs.
As for the series history, yes, Toledo has won three of the last four and 11 of the last 13 and is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 clashes. But the last time the Rockets went to Northern Illinois was in 2008, when the Huskies were as good as they are this season. Result: NIU rolled 38-7 as an eight-point favorite.
Bottom line: As long as Northern Illinois (6-2 ATS last eight at home, all as a chalk) protects the football offense and continues to take it away on defense (18 forced turnovers), it will crush Toledo (1-4 ATS last five as a double-digit underdog) by at least three touchdowns.
