THE SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Ball State (1-10, 5-5 ATS) at Western Michigan (5-6, 3-7 ATS)
The Cardinals conclude a miserable 2009 season when they visit Western Michigan in a battle between Mid-American Conference West Division rivals.
Ball State went through the 2008 regular season undefeated at 12-0, capped by a 45-22 home rout of Western Michigan as a 10-point home favorite. But the Cardinals were stunned in the MAC Championship Game, losing 42-24 to Butler as a 15-point favorite, precipitating a 1-12 SU slide (5-7 ATS in lined action). On Wednesday, Ball State hosted West Division-leader Central Michigan in a nationally televised contest and got blown out 35-3 as a 14½-point underdog, finishing on the wrong end of a 511-233 yardage discrepancy.
The Broncos are coming off three consecutive road games, losing the first two to Kent State (26-14 as a 2½-point underdog) and Michigan State (49-14 as a 20½-point pup) before knocking off Eastern Michigan 35-14 as a 14-point chalk 10 days ago. Western Michigan hasn’t defeated consecutive Division I-A opponents all year, and its easy spread-cover against Eastern Michigan ended an 0-4 ATS slide. Prior to shutting down still-winless Eastern Michigan, the Broncos’ defense had been torched for at least 26 points in eight of their first nine Division I-A contests.
The Cardinals’ only victory in its last 13 games was a 29-27 road triumph at lowly Eastern Michigan as a 2½-point favorite. Ball State was at least competitive in its other three MAC road games, losing all three by seven, five and six points, going 3-0 ATS (all as an underdog). Meanwhile, Western Michigan has played just four home games so far (three lined contests), winning three but failing to cover in the last two.
Including last year’s 23-point home rout, Ball State has won two in a row, four out of five and six out of eight in this rivalry, with the SU winner covering the spread in all eight contests. In fact, the winner has gotten the money in each of the last 10 meetings.
Despite their miserable SU record this season, the Cardinals do carry several positive pointspread trends, including 21-7 on the road, 16-5 as a road underdog, 5-1 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points, 12-5 in November, 9-3 after a double-digit home loss and 12-5 after a non-cover. However, they have failed to cover in four straight games against opponents with a losing record.
The ATS trends are all negative for Western Michigan, including 3-10 overall, 1-3 at home, 6-14-1 against MAC opponents, 0-5 after a SU win, 5-12 as a favorite, 3-8 as a home chalk, 2-6 when laying 3½ to 10 points and 1-3-1 after a bye.
Ball State is riding a slew of “under” streaks, including 5-1 overall (all in MAC play), 8-2 on the road, 4-1 on Tuesday, 5-0 as an underdog and 9-2 in November. The Broncos are on “under” runs of 10-5 overall, 4-2 at home and 3-0 after a SU win, but the over is 13-5 in their last 18 as a home favorite and 8-0 in their last eight as a home chalk of 3½ to 10 points. Finally, four of the last five series meetings have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALL STATE
NBA
Oklahoma City (7-7, 8-6 ATS) at Utah (7-6, 6-7 ATS)
The Jazz, who are in the midst of a six-game homestand, shoot for their fourth consecutive victory when they host the Thunder in a Northwest Division clash at EnergySolutions Arena.
Oklahoma City is coming off Sunday’s 101-85 loss at the Lakers, failing to cover as a 10½-point road underdog. The Thunder have followed up a three-game road winning streak with consecutive losses in Los Angeles and Orlando (108-94 on Wednesday). In fact, Oklahoma City has struggled with consistency all year and has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in its last six outings, scoring 101, 100 and 127 points in three victories and 93, 94 and 85 points in three defeats. The SU winner is 13-1 ATS in Thunder games this year (10-0 ATS in the last 10).
Utah needed overtime to dispose of Detroit 100-97 on Saturday, coming up short as an 8½-point home favorite, ending a 4-0 ATS run. The Jazz have picked up the pace defensively, holding seven of their last 10 opponents under 100 points after giving up an average of 108.3 points in their first three contests.
The Jazz are 7-1 SU (4-4 ATS) in the last eight meetings with Oklahoma City, with Utah winning and covering the final two matchups last year. In the last four battles in Salt Lake City, the Jazz are 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS, winning by point margins of 21, 14, 7 and 20 points. Still, Oklahoma City has cashed in six of its last eight trips to EnergySolutions Arena, and the ‘dog has gotten the money in 11 of the last 16 meetings.
The Thunder are on ATS runs of 36-17 after a SU defeat, 21-7 after a non-cover and 15-5 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, although they’ve covered in four of five overall, the Jazz are in pointspread ruts of 0-4 against Northwest Division rivals, 2-10 after a SU win and 1-6 after two days of rest. Also, the underdog is 7-2 ATS in Utah’s last nine games and 6-3 ATS in Oklahoma City’s last nine.
Oklahoma City carries “over” trends of 5-1 overall, 9-3-1 on the road, 4-0-1 on Tuesday, 10-3 after a SU loss and 9-2 after a non-cover. The over is also 4-0 in Utah’s last four divisional games, 9-3 in its last 12 after a SU win and 12-5 in its last 17 after a non-cover. On the flip side, 15 of the Jazz’s last 21 home games have stayed low, and the under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY
