River City Sharps
Once you get to the World Series, the analysis of plays kind of gets thrown out the window. The reality is that the two hottest teams in MLB have made it to the Fall Classic and now it’s time to settle it on the field. The San Francisco Giants will give the ball to their ace, Madison Bumgarner, while the Kansas City Royals counter with James Shields. One of the odd things you always get with the World Series is the break these teams have had between the championship series and now. The Royals enter this game unbeaten at 8-0 in the playoffs, while the Giants have been a solid 8-2 in this year’s playoffs. This one simply comes down to a feel play, and we feel like the clear value in this spot is backing Bumgarner and the Giants in game one. Bumgarner is 11-1 against the ML as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Giants are the better baseball team and will prove it during this series, starting tonight. The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS ML (-110)
Once you get to the World Series, the analysis of plays kind of gets thrown out the window. The reality is that the two hottest teams in MLB have made it to the Fall Classic and now it’s time to settle it on the field. The San Francisco Giants will give the ball to their ace, Madison Bumgarner, while the Kansas City Royals counter with James Shields. One of the odd things you always get with the World Series is the break these teams have had between the championship series and now. The Royals enter this game unbeaten at 8-0 in the playoffs, while the Giants have been a solid 8-2 in this year’s playoffs. This one simply comes down to a feel play, and we feel like the clear value in this spot is backing Bumgarner and the Giants in game one. Bumgarner is 11-1 against the ML as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Giants are the better baseball team and will prove it during this series, starting tonight. The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS ML (-110)
Ecks and Bacon
Ben lee won on Monday in the NFL with the Texans/Steelers Over 44.5.
For Tuesday E&B have two wagers on the pitch.
(1) Roma +$280/Bayern-Munich
(2) A play on the Draw +$270
For Tuesday in MLB World Series Game One "Mr Chalk" likes the Royals Ev/Giants
Ben lee is 1-0 +$50 for week fifty two and 242-269-5 -$3240.
"Mr Chalk" is 91-64 -$474 for the 2014 MLB season.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
Ben lee won on Monday in the NFL with the Texans/Steelers Over 44.5.
For Tuesday E&B have two wagers on the pitch.
(1) Roma +$280/Bayern-Munich
(2) A play on the Draw +$270
For Tuesday in MLB World Series Game One "Mr Chalk" likes the Royals Ev/Giants
Ben lee is 1-0 +$50 for week fifty two and 242-269-5 -$3240.
"Mr Chalk" is 91-64 -$474 for the 2014 MLB season.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
Hondo
The Texans obviously weren’t happy about Hondo’s deficit falling into three figures. How else to explain Monday night’s colossal collapse in which they gave up 24 points in three minutes? It was a debacle wrapped in a disgrace that put the debt at 1,050 otises.
Tuesday night: Mr. Aitch expects KC to keep the party going in Game 1 — 10 units on the one and only Jimmy Shields to out-duel that Bumgarner. Also, come the end of the Series, he expects the Royals to have the whole World in their hands.
The Texans obviously weren’t happy about Hondo’s deficit falling into three figures. How else to explain Monday night’s colossal collapse in which they gave up 24 points in three minutes? It was a debacle wrapped in a disgrace that put the debt at 1,050 otises.
Tuesday night: Mr. Aitch expects KC to keep the party going in Game 1 — 10 units on the one and only Jimmy Shields to out-duel that Bumgarner. Also, come the end of the Series, he expects the Royals to have the whole World in their hands.
VegasNFLPicks
Arkansas State -2.5
The line have moved already heavily this morning in favour of Arkansas State, the Ragin Cajuns with massive injury problems,but even with the missing players Arkansas State is the better team on both ends, defense and offense
but it all starts with the defense, already 10 turnovers forced this season by the Red Wolves and 22 sacks , thats pretty impressive, I am sure Arkansas State will remain unbeaten in the Sun Belt after tonight,and after we were totally wrong last week against Texas State this week against the Red Wolves it will be very hard for ULL to repeat last weeks success
Arkansas State -2.5
The line have moved already heavily this morning in favour of Arkansas State, the Ragin Cajuns with massive injury problems,but even with the missing players Arkansas State is the better team on both ends, defense and offense
but it all starts with the defense, already 10 turnovers forced this season by the Red Wolves and 22 sacks , thats pretty impressive, I am sure Arkansas State will remain unbeaten in the Sun Belt after tonight,and after we were totally wrong last week against Texas State this week against the Red Wolves it will be very hard for ULL to repeat last weeks success
Topshelfpicks
Carson K - Game #1 - Royals
When you think about Game 1, how don't you focus on the pitching match-up. Bumgarner vs. Shields. Well that's a no-brainer. Bumgarner doesn't lose on the road in the Post season. Shields will give up a few runs and come out in the 6th inning. Yes we all know about KC's bullpen. But will it even matter when the Gaints are winning 3-0 and Madison is still pitching in the 8th.
The above paragraph would be the easy way out. What I'm going to say now may sound dumb, please don't laugh. When i seen this pitching match up I just assumed it would be like SF-120 or -125. Just knowing that the public would be betting Bumgarner. Vegas is smarter then me, this line is low for a reason.
Everyone wants to know how the Royals will react when they lose a Post Season game. What I want to know is. How will the Giants react when their ACE finally loses a game on the road and they are now facing a KC team that won 9 straight when they head into Game 2?
Carson K - Game #1 - Royals
When you think about Game 1, how don't you focus on the pitching match-up. Bumgarner vs. Shields. Well that's a no-brainer. Bumgarner doesn't lose on the road in the Post season. Shields will give up a few runs and come out in the 6th inning. Yes we all know about KC's bullpen. But will it even matter when the Gaints are winning 3-0 and Madison is still pitching in the 8th.
The above paragraph would be the easy way out. What I'm going to say now may sound dumb, please don't laugh. When i seen this pitching match up I just assumed it would be like SF-120 or -125. Just knowing that the public would be betting Bumgarner. Vegas is smarter then me, this line is low for a reason.
Everyone wants to know how the Royals will react when they lose a Post Season game. What I want to know is. How will the Giants react when their ACE finally loses a game on the road and they are now facing a KC team that won 9 straight when they head into Game 2?
VegasButcher
San Francisco Giants -102 (Game #1)
Game 1 of the World Series is here. There is no odds-value on this one as I have this game at -104 Royals, so the current odds of -108 Royals is very accurate. But I feel there are enough advantages for the Giants in game 1 that it warrants a play.
First, let’s remove the ‘myth’ that defense and bullpen wins championships. That might have been the Royals’ winning formula so far, but those are not critical factors for a championship. Starting pitching and hitting are the two key factors. While KC has overall advantages on defense and in the BP, San Fran aren’t slouches in those areas either. Their BP doesn’t overpower hitters like KC’s does, but they are very effective in generating weak contact and keeping runners from scoring, as we’ve seen during the playoffs. Defensively, San Fran ranked 17th on the year, but they’re a bit better than that, ranking 14th in the final month of the season when Morse, and his subpar D, didn’t play the field at all. In any case, the two most critical factors in a baseball game are starting pitching and offense. And I believe San Fran has an advantage in both going into game 1. Let’s break it down.
Offensively, San Fran ranked 6th this year while KC was 18th. Neither team has much power (17th in ISO for SF and 22nd for KC), but San Fran had the superior wRC+ (105 vs 93) and wOBA (.325 vs .301). They will be able to utilize Morse as an offensive weapon in this series without worrying about his defense. Morse had a 133 wRC+ for San Fran this season, the 2nd highest mark on the team. Here are the numbers for San Fran’s lineup:
Posey 144;
Morse 133;
Pence 123;
Belt 116;
Sandoval 111;
Ishikawa 110;
Panik 107;
Blanco 107;
Crawford 102.
What is interesting is that every single one of San Fran’s hitters in today’s lineup, has a wRC+ greater than 100. That means that this season, every single one of their hitters was above average. Now let’s take a look at the Royals’ numbers:
Gordon 122;
Cain 111;
Aoki 104;
Hosmer 99;
Butler 97;
Escobar 94;
Perez 92;
Moustakas 76;
Infante 76.
Only 3 of these hitters were above average offensively this year. You could argue that Hosmer, Moustakas, Butler, etc. are better than this, and closer resemble their production in the playoffs than a 182-game regular season, but that’s another argument altogether. And even if that is true, their numbers wouldn’t be significantly better. There’s a reason why KC hit the fewest HR’s in the majors, even though they have a DH spot, unlike the NL teams. By comparison, Giants were 17th, and that’s while playing their home games in a ball-park that ranked 2nd worst in Fly-ball factor this year. I think it’s safe to say that San Fran will have an advantage offensively in this series, and in particular in game 1.
So what mitigates a good offense? Good pitching of course. Royals have a fantastic bullpen, probably the scariest unit in all of baseball, but to get to them, your starter has to give you 5-6 solid innings. This is where San Fran once again has a strong advantage tonight. Let’s compare year-long stats for each:
Bumgarner: 25% K-rate; 5.1 K/BB ratio; 0.9 HR/9; 3.0 ERA with 3.1/3.0/3.0 FxS and ranked #16 overall
Shields: 19% K-rate; 4.1 K/BB ratio; 0.9 HR/9; 3.2 ERA with 3.6/3.6/3.6 FxS and ranked 54th overall
Bumgarner has the better K-rate and stronger advanced metrics (by about 0.6 of a run). This season each starter faced today’s opponent once. Bumgarner had a 3.0 SIERA and 3.0 xFIP in that start while Shields came in at 3.8 SIERA and 3.6 xFIP when facing the Giants. Interestingly, these numbers match their season-long stats almost to a tee. In any case, one-game sample size is useless as both pitchers threw well in their respective starts against today’s opponent. What isn’t useless is each starter’s performance so far in the playoffs.
In 16 playoff innings, Shields has allowed 26 base-runners (21 hits + 5 BB’s) which translates to a 1.63 base-runner per inning (WHIP). By comparison, Bumgarner has allowed 24 base-runners, a number that is close to Shields’. Of course he’s done so in twice as many innings pitched (31.2), and has a 0.76 base-runner per inning rate. Basically, Bumgarner has pitched twice as many innings as Shields, and has allowed 2 fewer base-runners overall – that’s impressive. He has a 1.4 ERA in the post-season with a 0.6 HR/9 rate, and 5.6 K/BB ratio. By comparison, Shields has a 5.6 ERA with a 1.7 HR/9 rate, and 3.0 K/BB ratio. I think it’s pretty clear who has been a better pitcher in the playoffs so far, and it’s not even close. Even if you apply the ‘eye test’ to each pitcher’s last start, you can tell who the more composed and stronger pitcher is right now. Bumgarner went 8 innings and allowed only 5 hits in his last start, though 2 were HR’s. Both HR’s were in the 4th inning but that didn’t rattle him, as he proceeded to get 13 consecutive outs and pitch through the 8th inning. Now that’s impressive composure. By comparison, Shields allowed 10 hits in his 5 innings pitched against Baltimore, while giving up 4 ER’s. Orioles chased him out in the 5th after plating 3 runs, but with how hard they were hitting the ball throughout most of those 5 innings I’m surprised they didn’t score more. Now Shields will start game 1 of the World Series, with pressure at an all-time high. As poorly as he’s looked in these playoffs and especially in his last outing, there is just no way to back him from my perspective. It’s really hard to trust this struggling 32-year old pitcher who has logged the most innings in the regular season since 2007 and also the most in the majors this year. I’d much rather back the 25-year old stud pitcher like Bumgarner, whose velocity has been increasing over the last few months and who looks the part of a true ACE.
Finally, I want to point out that in this series, Royals are the ‘public team’. That has really nothing to do with anything but it helps explain why the odds shifted from +104 KC to -108 KC, a 12-cent change now. ESPN’s SportsNation held a poll asking people which team will win the World Series. 70% of the votes picked the Royals, and all but 2 states picked KC as well. The two states that didn’t pick KC were Nevada and California…those two states were split at 50/50, right down the middle. So the question is, how can even California, Giants’ home state, NOT have a majority favoring San Fran to win it all? Well, there is something to be said about people’s belief in “momentum” (there is no such thing in pro sports), unbeaten streaks (those are meant to be broken, besides San Fran’s 8-2 post-season record is just as impressive), and just overall infatuation with the ‘underdog’. Will a casual fan root for a team that is trying to win their 3rd World Series Championship in 5 years or a team that hasn’t won one in 29 years, the last time they actually made the playoffs. I think World Series is popular enough where the money that comes from casual fans is high enough to offset the money that comes from professional sharpies. I believe that is why the odds have shifted in this one and I do believe that it’s an overreaction by the public. In tonight’s particular matchup, San Fran is a better team, and I like them to win game 1 of the World Series.
San Francisco Giants -102 (Game #1)
Game 1 of the World Series is here. There is no odds-value on this one as I have this game at -104 Royals, so the current odds of -108 Royals is very accurate. But I feel there are enough advantages for the Giants in game 1 that it warrants a play.
First, let’s remove the ‘myth’ that defense and bullpen wins championships. That might have been the Royals’ winning formula so far, but those are not critical factors for a championship. Starting pitching and hitting are the two key factors. While KC has overall advantages on defense and in the BP, San Fran aren’t slouches in those areas either. Their BP doesn’t overpower hitters like KC’s does, but they are very effective in generating weak contact and keeping runners from scoring, as we’ve seen during the playoffs. Defensively, San Fran ranked 17th on the year, but they’re a bit better than that, ranking 14th in the final month of the season when Morse, and his subpar D, didn’t play the field at all. In any case, the two most critical factors in a baseball game are starting pitching and offense. And I believe San Fran has an advantage in both going into game 1. Let’s break it down.
Offensively, San Fran ranked 6th this year while KC was 18th. Neither team has much power (17th in ISO for SF and 22nd for KC), but San Fran had the superior wRC+ (105 vs 93) and wOBA (.325 vs .301). They will be able to utilize Morse as an offensive weapon in this series without worrying about his defense. Morse had a 133 wRC+ for San Fran this season, the 2nd highest mark on the team. Here are the numbers for San Fran’s lineup:
Posey 144;
Morse 133;
Pence 123;
Belt 116;
Sandoval 111;
Ishikawa 110;
Panik 107;
Blanco 107;
Crawford 102.
What is interesting is that every single one of San Fran’s hitters in today’s lineup, has a wRC+ greater than 100. That means that this season, every single one of their hitters was above average. Now let’s take a look at the Royals’ numbers:
Gordon 122;
Cain 111;
Aoki 104;
Hosmer 99;
Butler 97;
Escobar 94;
Perez 92;
Moustakas 76;
Infante 76.
Only 3 of these hitters were above average offensively this year. You could argue that Hosmer, Moustakas, Butler, etc. are better than this, and closer resemble their production in the playoffs than a 182-game regular season, but that’s another argument altogether. And even if that is true, their numbers wouldn’t be significantly better. There’s a reason why KC hit the fewest HR’s in the majors, even though they have a DH spot, unlike the NL teams. By comparison, Giants were 17th, and that’s while playing their home games in a ball-park that ranked 2nd worst in Fly-ball factor this year. I think it’s safe to say that San Fran will have an advantage offensively in this series, and in particular in game 1.
So what mitigates a good offense? Good pitching of course. Royals have a fantastic bullpen, probably the scariest unit in all of baseball, but to get to them, your starter has to give you 5-6 solid innings. This is where San Fran once again has a strong advantage tonight. Let’s compare year-long stats for each:
Bumgarner: 25% K-rate; 5.1 K/BB ratio; 0.9 HR/9; 3.0 ERA with 3.1/3.0/3.0 FxS and ranked #16 overall
Shields: 19% K-rate; 4.1 K/BB ratio; 0.9 HR/9; 3.2 ERA with 3.6/3.6/3.6 FxS and ranked 54th overall
Bumgarner has the better K-rate and stronger advanced metrics (by about 0.6 of a run). This season each starter faced today’s opponent once. Bumgarner had a 3.0 SIERA and 3.0 xFIP in that start while Shields came in at 3.8 SIERA and 3.6 xFIP when facing the Giants. Interestingly, these numbers match their season-long stats almost to a tee. In any case, one-game sample size is useless as both pitchers threw well in their respective starts against today’s opponent. What isn’t useless is each starter’s performance so far in the playoffs.
In 16 playoff innings, Shields has allowed 26 base-runners (21 hits + 5 BB’s) which translates to a 1.63 base-runner per inning (WHIP). By comparison, Bumgarner has allowed 24 base-runners, a number that is close to Shields’. Of course he’s done so in twice as many innings pitched (31.2), and has a 0.76 base-runner per inning rate. Basically, Bumgarner has pitched twice as many innings as Shields, and has allowed 2 fewer base-runners overall – that’s impressive. He has a 1.4 ERA in the post-season with a 0.6 HR/9 rate, and 5.6 K/BB ratio. By comparison, Shields has a 5.6 ERA with a 1.7 HR/9 rate, and 3.0 K/BB ratio. I think it’s pretty clear who has been a better pitcher in the playoffs so far, and it’s not even close. Even if you apply the ‘eye test’ to each pitcher’s last start, you can tell who the more composed and stronger pitcher is right now. Bumgarner went 8 innings and allowed only 5 hits in his last start, though 2 were HR’s. Both HR’s were in the 4th inning but that didn’t rattle him, as he proceeded to get 13 consecutive outs and pitch through the 8th inning. Now that’s impressive composure. By comparison, Shields allowed 10 hits in his 5 innings pitched against Baltimore, while giving up 4 ER’s. Orioles chased him out in the 5th after plating 3 runs, but with how hard they were hitting the ball throughout most of those 5 innings I’m surprised they didn’t score more. Now Shields will start game 1 of the World Series, with pressure at an all-time high. As poorly as he’s looked in these playoffs and especially in his last outing, there is just no way to back him from my perspective. It’s really hard to trust this struggling 32-year old pitcher who has logged the most innings in the regular season since 2007 and also the most in the majors this year. I’d much rather back the 25-year old stud pitcher like Bumgarner, whose velocity has been increasing over the last few months and who looks the part of a true ACE.
Finally, I want to point out that in this series, Royals are the ‘public team’. That has really nothing to do with anything but it helps explain why the odds shifted from +104 KC to -108 KC, a 12-cent change now. ESPN’s SportsNation held a poll asking people which team will win the World Series. 70% of the votes picked the Royals, and all but 2 states picked KC as well. The two states that didn’t pick KC were Nevada and California…those two states were split at 50/50, right down the middle. So the question is, how can even California, Giants’ home state, NOT have a majority favoring San Fran to win it all? Well, there is something to be said about people’s belief in “momentum” (there is no such thing in pro sports), unbeaten streaks (those are meant to be broken, besides San Fran’s 8-2 post-season record is just as impressive), and just overall infatuation with the ‘underdog’. Will a casual fan root for a team that is trying to win their 3rd World Series Championship in 5 years or a team that hasn’t won one in 29 years, the last time they actually made the playoffs. I think World Series is popular enough where the money that comes from casual fans is high enough to offset the money that comes from professional sharpies. I believe that is why the odds have shifted in this one and I do believe that it’s an overreaction by the public. In tonight’s particular matchup, San Fran is a better team, and I like them to win game 1 of the World Series.
