Dave Essler | MLB Money Line
triple-dime bet 902 KAN (+100) BetOnline vs 901 SFG
Analysis: Of course people will instinctively want to back Bumgarner, and I get why. However, the Royals are the winners here. First of all, the Giants actually played a three game series in Kansas City back in August and lost all three of them. Shields threw a four-hitter and the Royals won that game 5-0, and in the previous game the Royals beat Bumgarner. So much of the playoffs are confidence and momentum, and Kansas City has both. And we know which team has the better bullpen, so this is really a six inning game, IMO. Hunter Pence is 0-11 off of Shields, while Posey, Sandoval, Morse, and Ishikawa are a combined 1-14. That would have to change drastically for the Giants to win the game. No, Shields' post-season numbers haven't been tremendous, but they Royals have scored TONS for him, so he hasn't had to be super-sharp. He doesn't walk many and gives up few bombs at home (as opposed to on the road). His season-long WHIP is only 1.18, which can't be ignored.
Bumgarner is a flyball pitcher (when he's not striking people out) and in fact has allowed twice as many bombs on the road as he has at home, one of them this season to Billy Butler. And because the Royals saw him this season, I do give them every chance in the book of plating a few, which IMO will be enough. No team the Giants have faced in the post-season will put more pressure on the pitcher/catcher than the Royals will, and not many teams in MLB allowed more SB's (107) than the Giants. And not many teams ALLOWED less (69) than the Royals.
What really sealed this for me was the the Giants were actually a game under .500 in one-run games. The Royals were barely over .500, but having the Giants under .500 actually surprised me. And for all the talk about Kansas City not hitting LHP, they're 27-21 against LHS, and at home, and at basically "pick the winner". How can we not.
Pick Made: Oct 19 2014 7:07AM PST
triple-dime bet 902 KAN (+100) BetOnline vs 901 SFG
Analysis: Of course people will instinctively want to back Bumgarner, and I get why. However, the Royals are the winners here. First of all, the Giants actually played a three game series in Kansas City back in August and lost all three of them. Shields threw a four-hitter and the Royals won that game 5-0, and in the previous game the Royals beat Bumgarner. So much of the playoffs are confidence and momentum, and Kansas City has both. And we know which team has the better bullpen, so this is really a six inning game, IMO. Hunter Pence is 0-11 off of Shields, while Posey, Sandoval, Morse, and Ishikawa are a combined 1-14. That would have to change drastically for the Giants to win the game. No, Shields' post-season numbers haven't been tremendous, but they Royals have scored TONS for him, so he hasn't had to be super-sharp. He doesn't walk many and gives up few bombs at home (as opposed to on the road). His season-long WHIP is only 1.18, which can't be ignored.
Bumgarner is a flyball pitcher (when he's not striking people out) and in fact has allowed twice as many bombs on the road as he has at home, one of them this season to Billy Butler. And because the Royals saw him this season, I do give them every chance in the book of plating a few, which IMO will be enough. No team the Giants have faced in the post-season will put more pressure on the pitcher/catcher than the Royals will, and not many teams in MLB allowed more SB's (107) than the Giants. And not many teams ALLOWED less (69) than the Royals.
What really sealed this for me was the the Giants were actually a game under .500 in one-run games. The Royals were barely over .500, but having the Giants under .500 actually surprised me. And for all the talk about Kansas City not hitting LHP, they're 27-21 against LHS, and at home, and at basically "pick the winner". How can we not.
Pick Made: Oct 19 2014 7:07AM PST
