I've been putting in a bunch of time tweaking college football systems, and there are a few that I've disabled and a couple that I've added for this week. We are due for a big week. First play is in tonight's game...
2 UNIT = Arkansas State @ UL Lafayette - [101] ARKANSAS STATE -3 (-108)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)
Cheers,
Kevin
2 UNIT = Arkansas State @ UL Lafayette - [101] ARKANSAS STATE -3 (-108)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)
Cheers,
Kevin
It seemed like a long time off with the short Championship series', but the World Series is finally here. I don't have a system play going for Game 1, but Kyle has a play below.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals - GIANTS TO WIN (-107)
Listed Pitchers: Bumgarner vs. Shields
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.87 units)
Up a couple units and some change heading into the World Series, we look to finish off the season strong in the winning column. After hitting 64% of my picks last season, I endured some regression here. Take away that one train wreck of a month early in the year and I would probably be hovering around that mark again. Nonetheless, I will be happy with another season in the +.
What we have in game 1 is the hottest pitcher in the postseason versus the hottest team in the postseason. The Royals were picked by many experts to nab the AL Central this season. They weren't successful, but who cares when your team is in the World Series. KC has now won 8 straight games, an 8-0 run in the playoffs, but with all the talk focusing on the Royals run, the Giants are really hot as well. SF is 10-2 their last 12 games and are backed by the hottest pitcher, as I alluded to. Bumgarner has a 1.99 ERA his last three starts, and in the playoffs as a whole, a sliver above 1.00. The most he has allowed was 3 in his last start, albeit, another win. Two games featured 0 runs allowed, and his last three starts featured a WHIP of 0.84. Royals' hurler James Shields is hit and miss, there is great James and bad James. Lately it has been bad, as his ERA has creeped up to 5.62 with a 1.62 WHIP this postseason. Including two starts where he allowed 4 runs a piece. The Giants bring in the top bullpen in the postseason to the World Series, sporting a 1.78 ERA. The Royals finally lose a game, and fall at the hands of Madison Bumgarner in game 1 of the World Series.
Cheers,
Kevin
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals - GIANTS TO WIN (-107)
Listed Pitchers: Bumgarner vs. Shields
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.87 units)
Up a couple units and some change heading into the World Series, we look to finish off the season strong in the winning column. After hitting 64% of my picks last season, I endured some regression here. Take away that one train wreck of a month early in the year and I would probably be hovering around that mark again. Nonetheless, I will be happy with another season in the +.
What we have in game 1 is the hottest pitcher in the postseason versus the hottest team in the postseason. The Royals were picked by many experts to nab the AL Central this season. They weren't successful, but who cares when your team is in the World Series. KC has now won 8 straight games, an 8-0 run in the playoffs, but with all the talk focusing on the Royals run, the Giants are really hot as well. SF is 10-2 their last 12 games and are backed by the hottest pitcher, as I alluded to. Bumgarner has a 1.99 ERA his last three starts, and in the playoffs as a whole, a sliver above 1.00. The most he has allowed was 3 in his last start, albeit, another win. Two games featured 0 runs allowed, and his last three starts featured a WHIP of 0.84. Royals' hurler James Shields is hit and miss, there is great James and bad James. Lately it has been bad, as his ERA has creeped up to 5.62 with a 1.62 WHIP this postseason. Including two starts where he allowed 4 runs a piece. The Giants bring in the top bullpen in the postseason to the World Series, sporting a 1.78 ERA. The Royals finally lose a game, and fall at the hands of Madison Bumgarner in game 1 of the World Series.
Cheers,
Kevin
XpertPicks
TUESDAY
TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY
Arkansas State has won 18 of the last 21 games when playing as a favorite and they have won 6 of the last 7 games coming off a bye week. Arkansas State has won 9 of the last 10 games coming off two or more wins and they have won 6 of the last 7 games when playing in the month of October.
TUESDAY
TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY
- Play Arkansas State -2 over Lafayette---RISK 25% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Arkansas State has won 18 of the last 21 games when playing as a favorite and they have won 6 of the last 7 games coming off a bye week. Arkansas State has won 9 of the last 10 games coming off two or more wins and they have won 6 of the last 7 games when playing in the month of October.
XpertPicks
TUESDAY BASEBALL
Kansas City has won 54 of the last 85 games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and they have won 15 of the last 20 inter-league games. Kansas City has won 32 of the last 47 games after having won eight or more of the last ten games and they have won 56 of the last 89 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game.
TUESDAY BASEBALL
- Play Kansas City +100 over San Francisco---Top Play (Risk 10% of your Bankroll)
Kansas City has won 54 of the last 85 games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and they have won 15 of the last 20 inter-league games. Kansas City has won 32 of the last 47 games after having won eight or more of the last ten games and they have won 56 of the last 89 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game.
Dr. Bob
Strong Opinion - Arkansas State (-3) 35 UL LAFAYETTE 27
Tue Oct-21-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 0 Over/Under 53.5 - Matchup Stats
UL Lafayette has been better offensively since star WR Jamal Robinson returned a few weeks ago but Robinson is now out for the season and I’ll favor the Red Wolves to cover even though the situation favors UL Lafayette. UL Lafayette’s attack has been 0.3 yards per play better than average against FBS competition this season (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) but the pass attack is now worse without Robinson, who has averaged 12.4 yards on 21 targets this season – although against really bad opposition. After replacing Robinson’s compensated yards per attempt with the compensated ypa of remaining wide receivers I rate the ULL pass attack at 0.3 yards per pass play worse now than their season rating, which put’s UL Lafayette’s offensive rating at +0.1 yards per play. Arkansas State’s defense has been very good by Sun Belt standards, allowing just 5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, but Lafayette’s offense has an advantage and is projected to gain 392 yards at 5.5 yppl in this game.
Arkansas State’s offense has a much more significant advantage over a soft UL Lafayette defense that’s surrendered 6.7 yards per play to FBS teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Arkansas State has been average offensively for the season (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) but the Red Wolves are 0.2 yppl better than average with explosive running back Michael Gordon in the lineup. Gordon has averaged an incredible 9.4 yards per run on his 47 runs this season and the Red Wolves’ rushing attack struggled at just 3.7 yards per rushing play in the two games he missed earlier in the season. Gordon has been back the last two games and has run for 356 yards on just 33 runs (10.8 ypr), so the Arkansas State rushing attack is certainly much better with Gordon in the lineup and my math model projects 6.8 yards per rushing play, 7.0 yards per pass play and 520 total yards at 6.9 yppl for the Red Wolves tonight.
Overall the math favors Arkansas State by 12 points in this game but the Red Wolves apply to a negative 49-119-3 ATS road favorite situation that will keep me off this game as a Best Bet. However, I’ll consider Arkansas State a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less. I will also lean with the over.
Strong Opinion - Arkansas State (-3) 35 UL LAFAYETTE 27
Tue Oct-21-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 0 Over/Under 53.5 - Matchup Stats
UL Lafayette has been better offensively since star WR Jamal Robinson returned a few weeks ago but Robinson is now out for the season and I’ll favor the Red Wolves to cover even though the situation favors UL Lafayette. UL Lafayette’s attack has been 0.3 yards per play better than average against FBS competition this season (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) but the pass attack is now worse without Robinson, who has averaged 12.4 yards on 21 targets this season – although against really bad opposition. After replacing Robinson’s compensated yards per attempt with the compensated ypa of remaining wide receivers I rate the ULL pass attack at 0.3 yards per pass play worse now than their season rating, which put’s UL Lafayette’s offensive rating at +0.1 yards per play. Arkansas State’s defense has been very good by Sun Belt standards, allowing just 5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, but Lafayette’s offense has an advantage and is projected to gain 392 yards at 5.5 yppl in this game.
Arkansas State’s offense has a much more significant advantage over a soft UL Lafayette defense that’s surrendered 6.7 yards per play to FBS teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Arkansas State has been average offensively for the season (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) but the Red Wolves are 0.2 yppl better than average with explosive running back Michael Gordon in the lineup. Gordon has averaged an incredible 9.4 yards per run on his 47 runs this season and the Red Wolves’ rushing attack struggled at just 3.7 yards per rushing play in the two games he missed earlier in the season. Gordon has been back the last two games and has run for 356 yards on just 33 runs (10.8 ypr), so the Arkansas State rushing attack is certainly much better with Gordon in the lineup and my math model projects 6.8 yards per rushing play, 7.0 yards per pass play and 520 total yards at 6.9 yppl for the Red Wolves tonight.
Overall the math favors Arkansas State by 12 points in this game but the Red Wolves apply to a negative 49-119-3 ATS road favorite situation that will keep me off this game as a Best Bet. However, I’ll consider Arkansas State a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less. I will also lean with the over.
FantasySportsGametime
MLB Baseball
1000* Play Kansas City +100 over San Francisco (TOP MLB PLAY)
James Shields has won 14 of the last 18 games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and he has won 15 of the last 19 games when the total posted is 7 runs or less. James Shields has won 15 of the last 18 games coming off a team win and he has won 4 of the last 5 games vs. NL West Division Opponents.
MLB Baseball
1000* Play Kansas City +100 over San Francisco (TOP MLB PLAY)
James Shields has won 14 of the last 18 games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and he has won 15 of the last 19 games when the total posted is 7 runs or less. James Shields has won 15 of the last 18 games coming off a team win and he has won 4 of the last 5 games vs. NL West Division Opponents.
Winning Angle Football
TUESDAY
Play Arkansas State -2 over Lafayette (NCAA)
8:00 PM EST
Arkansas State has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games and they have covered the spread in 13 of the last 17 games vs. conference opponents. Arkansas State has covered the spread in 11 of the last 14 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they are averaging 33 points on offense in their last three games.
TUESDAY
Play Arkansas State -2 over Lafayette (NCAA)
8:00 PM EST
Arkansas State has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games and they have covered the spread in 13 of the last 17 games vs. conference opponents. Arkansas State has covered the spread in 11 of the last 14 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they are averaging 33 points on offense in their last three games.
Winning Angle Baseball
TUESDAY
Play Kansas City +100 over San Francisco (Top Play)
8:00 PM EST
James Shields has won 33 of the last 46 games when the total posted is 7 runs or less and he has won 37 of the last 54 games when pitching in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half of the season. James Shields has won 35 of the last 51 games coming off a team win and he has an ERA of 0.00 vs. San Francisco over his career.
TUESDAY
Play Kansas City +100 over San Francisco (Top Play)
8:00 PM EST
James Shields has won 33 of the last 46 games when the total posted is 7 runs or less and he has won 37 of the last 54 games when pitching in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half of the season. James Shields has won 35 of the last 51 games coming off a team win and he has an ERA of 0.00 vs. San Francisco over his career.
Winning Angle
TUESDAY
NBA BASKETBALL----PRESEASON
Play Utah +3.5 over Oklahoma City (NBA TOP PLAY)
Play Los Angeles Lakers +4.5 over Phoenix (NBA TOP PLAY)
Detailed information and Analysis will start once the regular season begins in a few weeks.
=======================================================
NHL HOCKEY
Play New York Rangers +105 over New Jersey (NHL TOP PLAY)
Play San Jose +115 over Boston (NHL TOP PLAY)
TUESDAY
NBA BASKETBALL----PRESEASON
Play Utah +3.5 over Oklahoma City (NBA TOP PLAY)
Play Los Angeles Lakers +4.5 over Phoenix (NBA TOP PLAY)
Detailed information and Analysis will start once the regular season begins in a few weeks.
=======================================================
NHL HOCKEY
Play New York Rangers +105 over New Jersey (NHL TOP PLAY)
Play San Jose +115 over Boston (NHL TOP PLAY)
NonStopSportsPicks
2* Giants 1st 5, -110,
Giants SHOULD get their runs off of Shields and I just flat out respect/like Madison Bumgarner more than Shields. Shields is 1-0 with a 5.6 ERA in the playoffs...far inferior to Maddy B. I also like the fact that the Royals have had some time off to "cool" down. And lastly, we're betting the 1st 5 innings as to NOT have to mess with the Royals bullpen, which is lights out. Either the Giants score off Shields, or they lose. For those of you who can't get the 1st 5, this is still a play at full-game...I just happen to like the 1st 5 more.
2* Giants 1st 5, -110,
Giants SHOULD get their runs off of Shields and I just flat out respect/like Madison Bumgarner more than Shields. Shields is 1-0 with a 5.6 ERA in the playoffs...far inferior to Maddy B. I also like the fact that the Royals have had some time off to "cool" down. And lastly, we're betting the 1st 5 innings as to NOT have to mess with the Royals bullpen, which is lights out. Either the Giants score off Shields, or they lose. For those of you who can't get the 1st 5, this is still a play at full-game...I just happen to like the 1st 5 more.
