Sam Clayton
Tuesday, August 4
15 dime - Marlins
10 dime - Mets
Full analysis coming......
15 dime - Marlins
Give the Marlins credit folks, they are still in the thick of things in the National League wild card race. The Fish have 9 of 12 games including series wins against the Dodgers and Cubs and they've won six of their last seven road games. Tonight, Florida sends their proverbial ace Josh Johnson (10-2, 2.87) to the bump and he's been absolutely dominant all year long -- not to mention all his career against the Nationals. Johnson is 4-0 lifetime with a 3.43 ERA against Washington and he's 5-1 with a 3.64 marker on the highway this year. The Marlins have won 17 of Johnson's 21 starts this year and the right-hander has allowed more than three runs only once. I don't quite understand what the hell Vegas is thinking with this line. Like yesterday's winner on the Cubs, this is just another blatent divisional mismatch. The Nats have lost four of six games, they're starting an inexperienced, timid rookie in J.D. Martin (0-2, 7.50) and they are playing without their best hitter as Ryan Zimmerman is not in the starting lineup. Florida is 9-0 in 2009 against Washington and I don't expect things to change Tuesday. Play the Fish as your top play winner.
10 dime - Mets
This selection is based on the historical dominance of Mets' ace Johan Santana, who is by far the most dominant second half pitcher in all of baseball. The two-time Cy Young Award winner is a career 60-18 with a 2.68 after the All-Star break and nobody can even hold a candle to that mark. The Metropolitans have won 3 of the last 4 times Santana has gotten the call and the southpaw is 3-1 with an unreal 1.60 ERA over that span. Johan has also seen great success against the Cardinals as he's a lifetime (2-0, 1.12) against the Redbirds. The Mets are in a major bounce back spot after dropping their last two games to the Diamondbacks and I like their chances with Joel Piniero on the mound. Piniero is an interesting individual as truth be told, he's really just another average pitcher with a strong offense behind him. He's 5-5 with a 3.38 ERA on the road this season and I really believe the New York hitters will be able to rattle him tonight. Hell, as the record books show, Santana realistically only needs two to three runs of support anyway. At this great price, it's worth a flyer on the hottest second half pitcher this century.