Scott Rickenbach’s
7/7/2009
7:10:00 PM OVER 9 RUNS,BOSTON RED SOX (Beckett)
-vs- Oakland Athletics (Eveland)
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB Regular Play: OVER the total in Boston vs Oakland @ 7:10 PM ET: Beckett vs Eveland – After getting shutout yesterday, you can fully expect the Red Sox offense to bounce back in a big way tonight. Boston is 10-4 to the over the last three seasons when coming off of a shutout. Also, as a home favorite of -225 to -250, the Red Sox are 8-4 to the over the last three seasons. We’ll gladly put this combined 18-8 (69%) ATS mark to work for us here as we love this pitching match-up to help us in a big way here. Josh Beckett gets the start for the Red Sox and Dana Eveland gets the start for the Athletics. Note that Eveland was sent to the minors in early May after he started the season with a 7.40 ERA after his first six outings. The A’s southpaw is finally coming back up to the big club but it’s certainly not an ideal situation for him. Eveland just threw 90 pitches in a minor league start on Friday so this start is being made on short rest. Also, Eveland has an 18.90 ERA in his two career starts against the Red Sox. Both of these outings have come at Fenway Park and, needless to say, this is about the worst possible situation for Eveland. The A’s hurler has to make a start on short rest and he has to make it in Boston where he’s been pummeled in his career and where the Red Sox are amped up to bounce back from a rare home shutout. The reason we like the over here is two fold. First off, you’ll never find us laying a huge price like the Red Sox are favored by here. Additionally, there is reason to believe that the A’s get their fair share of runs here too. Red Sox starter Beckett was not at his best in his most recent start. He struggled through the first four innings of his start and he ended up giving up five runs in seven innings. Beckett is just 2-3 with a 4.88 ERA in five career starts against the A’s. Oakland’s current roster includes five guys who have accounted for at least one homer against Beckett and all five were in the A’s lineup last night. The five guys are Orlando Cabrera, Mark Ellis, Jason Giambi, Matt Holliday, and Ryan Sweeney. They have six homers in 91 combined at-bats against Beckett. That’s decent power and that’s also a good amount of experience. That helps in a match-up like this and they’ve combined for 18 RBIs in these 91 at-bats. Allowing five earned runs in his start at Baltimore last week marked the second time in four starts that Beckett has allowed at least five earned runs. Also, in that series with the Orioles, the Red Sox bullpen suffered some tough times and the A’s bullpen has struggled on the road where Oakland has a 4.78 team ERA. The A’s offense has scored at least five runs in eight of their last 16 games and their confidence remains high after getting to pound John Smoltz in yesterday’s game. That confidence is a booster as today they face Beckett. This one flies over as a result because we have no doubt the Red Sox should pound Eveland. Play OVER the total in Boston as a regular selection.
7/7/2009
8:10:00 PM OVER 9 RUNS,CHICAGO WHITE SOX (Buehrle)
-vs- Cleveland Indians(Sowers)
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB Top Play: OVER the total in Chicago-AL vs Cleveland @ 8:10 PM ET: Buehrle vs Sowers – The Indians are 8-1 to the over as a road dog of +125 to +150 this season. Cleveland is 7-1 to the over when playing with a day off. The Indians are 12-5 to the over against left-handed starters. The White Sox are 20-8 to the over as a home favorite of -150 to -175. Adding all this up we have a combined 47-15 (76%) ATS mark supporting our play on the over here. Of course, there is a lot more support for this play than just ATS stats! Let’s get to work! Mark Buehrle gets the start for the White Sox here and he’s 1-3 with a 6.28 ERA in his last seven starts against the Indians. Also, even though Buerhle allowed just one earned run in 8.1 innings against the Royals in his last start, he was also helped by three double plays including two that came through the air. As you can see from the above numbers, Buehrle is unlikely to enjoy the same success against the Indians. Also, Buehrle has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 20 innings at home. That works to a 5.40 ERA. Additionally, the White Sox southpaw had allowed 20 hits in his last 14 innings in his two home starts prior to this three-start stretch where he allowed 12 earned runs. In other words, Buehrle is offering us big line value here for a play on the over as he’s in a spot where success should not be expected. The Indians have gone over the total in to the tune of 25-13 in road games this season and they will hit Buehrle hard – just as they’ve done in their last seven chances against him. Speaking of a pitcher who should struggle, there is little hope for Jeremy Sowers in this match-up. The Indians southpaw is 0-5 with a 6.23 ERA in six starts against the White Sox. Also, Sowers has already faced the White Sox three times this season and he’s been roughed up. Giving the ChiSox their fourth look at him already this season is certainly not good news for Sowers. Note that the Indians southpaw is 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA in his three road starts this season and he’s walked nine in just 15 innings. The White Sox have averaged 5.65 runs per game in their last twenty games and their bats will bounce back at home after losing the last two games of their series at Kansas City over the weekend. In terms of bullpen rankings, the Indians ERA ranks them 27th while the White Sox BAA ranks them 24th. In other words, both pens are certainly hittable and, even with yesterday’s off day, they could be asked to do too much here because we expect an early exit for both starters! Play OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game as a Top Play selection
Tuesday 07/07/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm 
