Craig Davis
Tuesday's Lineup
[100 Dime ---- TIGERS (With Verlander) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over ]ROYALS (with Chen)
DETROIT TIGERS (with Verlander) -1 1/2 runs over KANSAS CITY (with Chen) --- Well here it is... I've been talking about it for at least a week and I can't tell you how excited about my biggest baseball play of the entire season. The Detroit Tigers, behind Justin Verlander, will absolutely blast Bruce Chen and the Kansas City Royals and this game won't even be close. I'm honestly not sure I will see another play this season I like as well as I like this one tonight.
The Detroit Tigers blew a 2-1 lead last night and a fantastic outing from Armando Gallaraga, dropping a 4-3 decision to this same Kansas City team. So, you can bet the Tigers are out for blood tonight, and they're going to get it against Bruce Chen... a lefty who didn't throw a single pitch in 2008 and has only started two games thus far in 2009. Not only do the Tigers hit lefties well, they'll absolutely blister Chen's 89 mph fastball. Yeah, I said 89 miles per hour.
Since having reconstructive elbow surgery last season, Chen's fastball has lost some velocity and now has to rely on his off-speed stuff, including a breaking ball that he hasn't quite mastered. In his only other road start this year, Chen allowed 7 hits and 4 ERs in 6 1/3 innings, dropping a 6-2 decision at Pittsburgh. His other start, a July 2nd home start vs. Chicago, Chen was better (2 ER in 6 innings), but still managed to lose another game, 4-1, to the White Sox. If you're doing the math at home, the Royals have given him exactly three runs of run support in two games against Mark Beuhrle and Paul Maholm. So you tell me... how are the Royals going to provide him any more than a couple of runs tonight against a flame-throwing right-hander who has owned the Royals in his career??
The answer is simple... they're not. Kansas City has averaged just 3.2 runs per game in 7 meetings with the Tigers so far this season and they have yet to face the likes of Justin Verlander... the ace of the staff. Verlander only faced the Royals twice last season (both times on the road) and has yet to see them this year in seven meetings, but that doesn't take away the fact that he has absolutely owned this team in his career. Check out these numbers... 12 career starts, 8 wins and one loss, 2.21 ERA in 77.1 innings pitched, a WHIP barely above 1.00, and an opponents' batting average against of just .218. His last outing vs. Kansas City, last year in Missouri, was another gem... lasting 7 innings, shutting out the Royals and allowing just five hits in an eventual 4-3 win.
Let's take it a step further... Justin Verlander is as good as any pitcher in Major League Baseball when pitching at home. When you think of Verlander, you probably think about what he's done in three of his last four starts (4 ERs in Oakland, 3 ERs in Houston, and 5 ERs in St. Louis)... but you fail to realize that those three games were on the road, and mixed in was a very solid home outing vs. Milwaukee... a 3-2 win over Yovani Gallardo and the Brewers. Let's just take a quick peek at what he's been able to accomplish when pitching at Comerica:
6 starts, 4 wins, no losses, 40.1 innings pitched, 23 hits, 16 walks (0.96 WHIP), 5 ERs (1.11 ERA) and 51 strikeouts (more than one per inning). Folks, those numbers don't happen all that often and when you see a situation present itself like this one tonight, you have to jump all over it. Detroit has won eight of their last nine at home, are 9-3 in Verlander's last 12 starts vs. Kansas City, 18-3 in Verlander's last 21 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, and are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Royals, meanwhile, are 1-6 in their last seven in Game 2 of a series, 6-17 in their last 23 road games, and 4-12 in their last 16 as a road dog.
Vegas isn't stupid... that's why they have Detroit at -230 at the time of this writing. That number is a bit hefty for me to lay, so that's why I'm pounding the run line tonight... because I'm not worried about Detroit winning this game by one, two or even three runs. I'm calling at least a four-run Tigers victory tonight --- as they combine the masterful pitching of Verlander with the "we're overdue" offense the Tigers are going to put on display at home. I'm calling for at least a 6-2 win for the boys from Motown, because you know the Tigers dreadful bullpen is due to allow a few runs (as they always seem to do). Top play of the day and of the season (so far) on the Detroit Tigers, on the run line, over Kansas City.
PAID AND CONFIRMED BY MYSELF AND TANNGUYEN94 !!
GOOD LUCK <><>