<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(3) Orlando (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) at (2) Boston (6-4, 5-4-1 ATS)
With a buzzer-beating victory in Orlando in Game 4, the Celtics return to TD Banknorth Garden with the home-court advantage back in their favor as they try to go up 3-2 on the Magic in their best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinal series.
Glen Davis, in the lineup only because injured Kevin Garnett is out for the season, finished his 21-point performance with a game-winning 19-footer as time expired Sunday to give the Celtics a 95-94 victory as a five-point road pup and even this series at 2-2. Paul Pierce had a game-high 27 points and point guard Rajon Rondo finished with 21 points and 14 rebounds for Boston, which won despite scoring just 16 fourth-quarter points.
Just 48 hours after shooting almost 60 percent from the floor in a Game 3 blowout win at home, the Magic were held to 40 percent shooting Sunday and just 18.5 percent from beyond the three-point line. Dwight Howard had a monster game with 23 points and 17 rebounds, while Rashard Lewis chipped in 22 points for the Magic, who got outrebounded 44-38.
Orlando has won five of its last seven overall (4-3 ATS) and seven of its last 11 (5-6 ATS), and the Magic are 3-2 (2-3 ATS) on the road in the playoffs, including a Game 1 victory in this series. The Celtics have alternated wins and losses in their last nine outings (5-3-1 ATS) and they are 4-2 (2-4 ATS) inside the Garden in the postseason.
Orlando has won four of the last six head-to-head contests against the Celtics (3-3 ATS), including taking two of the last three in Boston. However, they’re still just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 trips to Beantown and the host in this rivalry is on streaks of 10-4 SU and 23-11 ATS.
The Magic are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 overall, 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 against Atlantic Division teams, but they’re on positive ATS runs of 36-16-3 as an underdog, 14-5 as a road ‘dog, 16-7-1 on Tuesdays and 49-20-1 after a straight-up loss.
The Celtics are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference semifinal games, 7-15 ATS in their last 22 at home and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine following a spread-cover, but they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a home chalk of less than five points.
The under is 5-2 in the last seven Magic-Celtics meetings (2-2 in this series). Meanwhile, Orlando is on a plethora of “under” runs that include 12-5 overall, 6-1 after a non-cover, 15-6 after one day off, 5-2 as an underdog, 12-5 against the Atlantic Division and 4-0 on Tuesdays. On the flip side, Boston carries “over” streaks of 14-4 overall, 35-16-1 at home, 18-5 as a favorite, 21-7 against Eastern Conference teams 6-1 as a playoff favorite and 5-0 on Tuesdays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(5) Houston (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (6-3, 4-5 ATS)
The Rockets dominated the Lakers in Game 4 on Sunday to even this best-of-7 Western Conference semifinal, and now it’s a best-of-3 series as the action shifts back to Staples Center in Los Angeles for Game 5.
Playing without center Yao Ming, who is out for the season with a broken foot, the Rockets shocked Los Angeles 99-87 as a 7½-point home underdog Sunday, leading by as many as 29 in the third quarter before cruising in the fourth quarter. Houston point guard Aaron Brooks finished with 34 points and Luis Scola had 11 points and 14 rebounds to lead the way. Shane Battier added 23 points and hit his first four three-point shots to help the Rockets build a sizable early lead that they wouldn’t relinquish.
The Lakers got 30 points and nine boards from Pau Gasol but just two other teammates hit double-digits in scoring, including a lowly 15 from Kobe Bryant, who played nearly 35 minutes. Also, despite the fact Houston didn’t have the 7-foot-6 Yao manning the post, the Rockets still had a 43-37 rebounding edge.
Houston has won 11 of its last 16 (9-7 ATS) while the Lakers are 13-4 in their last 17 (9-8 ATS). The Rockets are 2-3 (3-2 ATS) on the highway this postseason, including a 100-92 upset victory as an 8½-point underdog in Game 1 in Los Angeles last week. The Lakers are 4-1 (2-3 ATS) inside the Staples Center in the playoffs.
Including this playoff series, the Lakers are 6-2 SU and ATS against the Rockets this season and 9-5 ATS in the last 14 meetings overall. Furthermore, Los Angeles has cashed in four of the last five clashes in Hollywood.
Rick Adelman’s Rockets are on ATS slides of 5-11 against Pacific Division teams, 11-25-1 after a spread-cover, 2-5 after getting one day off and 3-7 on the road against teams with winning home records. Meanwhile, Phil Jackson’s squad is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after a non-cover, but just 4-9 in its last 13 as a playoff favorite.
After going over the posted number in Games 2 and 3, Sunday’s contest stayed well below the total making the under 4-2 in the last six series clashes.
The Rockets have soared over the total in nine of its last 12 Tuesday contests, but otherwise they are on “under” streaks of 6-2 overall, 5-2 after getting one day off and 5-2 after a straight-up win. Los Angeles has topped the total in five of its last seven conference semifinal games, but it also is on a host of “under” runs that include 5-2 overall, 7-3 on Tuesdays, 15-3-1 after a non-cover, 13-3 after a straight-up loss, 5-2 as a playoff favorite and 15-7 after getting one day off.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (22-11) at Philadelphia (15-14)
Young lefty Clayton Kershaw (1-2, 4.91 ERA) is slated to take the mound at Citizens Bank Park as the Dodgers open a six-game road trip with a series against the Phillies. Los Angeles capped an 11-game homestand with Saturday’s 7-5, 13-inning loss to the Giants. Since Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games for violating baseball’s substance-abuse policy, the Dodgers have lost three of four, which follows a seven-game winning streak.
Philadelphia is coming off consecutive weekend home losses to the Braves by scores of 6-2 and 4-2, and the Phillies have dropped four of their last five overall and four of their last six at home. Former Dodger Chan Ho Park (0-1, 6.67 ERA) gets the start tonight opposite Kershaw.
Los Angeles enters this series on hot streaks of 20-8 overall, 16-7 after a loss, 7-3 after an off day, 6-2 on Thursday and 6-2 against right-handed starters, and they’re 8-3 in Kershaw’s last 11 outings overall. However, they’ve lost 12 of their last 14 games against N.L. East foes and five of Kershaw’s last seven road starts.
Philadelphia has won 11 of its last 13 games against left-handed starters and is on further runs of 17-7 after a day off, 7-3 on Tuesday and 59-28 in series openers. The Phillies are also 12-4 in their last 16 games against the N.L. West, including knocking off Los Angeles in five games in last year’s National League Championship Series. Charlie Manuel’s club is on an 8-1 run against the Dodgers and is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in Philadelphia.
The home team won the first 11 head-to-head battles between these clubs last year before the Phillies won Games 4 and 5 of the NLCS in Los Angeles.
Kershaw has surrendered a combined one run in his last two starts covering 12 innings, both at home, with the Dodgers beating the Padres 1-0 and the Nationals 10-3. However, he’s 0-2 with a 10.29 ERA in three road starts (all Dodgers losses). That includes allowing a total of 15 runs in nine innings in his past two outings on the highway at Houston (8-5 loss) and Colorado (10-4 loss).
Park is coming off his best performance of the season, yielding just one hit and two walks over six scoreless innings at the Mets, but he got no run support as the Phillies fell 1-0. The veteran right-hander is 0-1 with a 9.28 ERA in two starts at Citizens Bank Park.
Kershaw saw the Phillies twice as a rookie in a two-week stretch last August, allowing a combined nine runs on 13 hits in 10 innings (8.10 ERA), with the Dodgers winning 4-3 at home and losing 9-2 at Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Park faced his former mates five times when he was with San Diego in 2005 and 2006, going 2-1 with a 4.74 ERA.
The Dodgers are on a bunch of “over” streaks, including 5-1-3 on the road, 13-3-1 against right-handed starters, 7-3-2 after an off day, 5-0-1 as an underdog, 5-1 against the N.L. East, 4-1 when Kershaw pitches and 5-0-1 when Kershaw pitches on Tuesday. Also, the over is 5-1 in Philadelphia’s last six games against N.L. West foes. Conversely, the under is 10-3 in the last 13 Dodgers-Phillies clashes at Citizens Bank Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (20-12) at L.A. Angels (16-14)
Justin Masterson (2-2, 5.28) will try to bounce back from two terrible outings when he takes the mound for the Red Sox, who open a six-game West Coast road trip with this contest at Angel Stadium. Boston was idle Monday following Sunday’s 4-3 victory over the Rays, which capped a 3-2 homestand. Since an 11-game winning streak, Terry Francona’s squad is just 7-6 (4-4 on the road).
Jered Weaver (3-1, 2.66) will try to extend the Angels’ four-game winning streak that included a weekend home sweep of the previously red-hot Royals. Los Angeles has gotten incredible pitching during its recent run, holding its last four opponents to five total runs, including Weaver’s complete-game 6-1 victory over Toronto on Thursday.
The Red Sox are on positive runs of 18-6 overall, 17-4 on grass, 10-1 against winning teams, 46-18 after a day off, 13-6 against the A.L. West and 21-10 on Tuesday. Los Angeles, in addition to its four-game overall winning streak (all at home), is 5-0 in its last five as a favorite and 25-11 in its last 36 on Tuesday. Also, with Weaver on the hill, the Halos are on runs of 19-7 at home (4-0 this year), 4-1 when favored, 6-2 in series openers and 4-1 against the A.L. East.
The Angels took two of three from Boston in Anaheim a month ago. Going back to last season, Los Angeles is on a 10-1 run against the Red Sox in the regular season, but Boston eliminated the Angels 3-1 in a best-of-5 opening-round playoff series last October.
Masterson allowed six runs in each of his last two starts, pitching six innings in a 6-2 loss at Tampa Bay then lasting 6 1/3 frames in Wednesday’s 9-2 home setback to Cleveland. Now in his second season in the big leagues, the hard-throwing right-hander has compiled a startling home-road split, going 7-1 with a 3.34 ERA in 25 games (eight starts) at Fenway Park, but 1-6 with a 4.14 ERA in 19 appearances (five starts) on foreign turf.
Weaver was brilliant in his complete-game victory over the hot-hitting Blue Jays on Thursday, allowing just one run on three hits with no walks and eight strikeouts. It was the right-hander’s fourth quality start in six trips to the mound this season, and he’s now 3-0 with a microscopic 1.21 ERA in four home starts.
Masterson does not have a decision in four career appearances (one start) against L.A., allowing six runs in 10 2/3 innings (5.06 ERA). On the other hand, Weaver is 2-3 with a 4,37 ERA in eight career starts (one in the playoffs) against Boston. That includes a 6-3 home victory on April 10 in which Weaver gave up one unearned run on four hits with eight strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings.
The high-scoring Red Sox carry “over” trends of 19-7-2 overall, 10-3-1 on the road, 12-5-2 against right-handed starters, 5-0 versus the A.L. West and 10-2-1 on Tuesday. However, the under is 19-9-4 in Boston’s last 32 games following an off day, while L.A. is on “under” stretches of 4-0 overall (all at home), 4-1 when favored, 11-5 on Tuesday, 4-1-1 after a day off and 5-1-1 when Weaver pitches at home.
Finally, the over is 7-3-1 in Boston’s last 11 games at Angel Stadium (2-0-1 this year), and the over is 4-0-1 in Weaver’s last five starts against the Red Sox.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
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